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Posted
7 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Do we have an update on how many refineries Russia has vs. how many have been attacked?  

It seems like this is something a wonk would have done.  I just don't know where to look.

Four are currently damaged. The reporting was that was was currently out of commission was ~17% of Russia's refining capacity. They had also hit export pipelines like the Druzhba pipeline. 

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Posted
I am not a Bot. I am also not a wonk. Maybe?
This is a screenshot from a file I started when Ukraine was invaded. It is from a combination of publicly available information from multiple sources, the accuracy of which is suspect, but directionally, it is pretty accurate. 
Ukraine has targeted every significant Russian refinery (21) except the 3 highlighted. Those 3 are way far east, 1200+ miles from Ukraine.

What exactly was hit and damaged is not known. Some of these refineries (similar to Deer Park and Lake Charles) have a footprint of 1-3 square miles, 1,000+ acres. Hitting half a dozen oil storage tanks in the tank farm is much different than taking out 1 of the main process units, a mile away. 

A lot of the reporting in the media, is like a lot of reporting in the media. Good for public consumption, but a lot of BS.

Refineries make both gasoline and diesel, AFTER the oil has been refined and separated into individual components. How much of each and the various grades is determined by further downstream processing and blending units.
 
image.png.f8f4de794bc69362050d6378c77c485f.png
Ukraine is 100% doing what they need to do, fighting to continue to exist.
But the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone which is connected to the knee bone...

Decreasing refined products from Russia, means that Russia and all their customers will need to find alternative supplies, which are limited. Supply & Demand always works. Crude demand, and prices, will go down, and gasoline and diesel demand, and prices, will go up.
Make no mistake, this is a concern that both Biden & Trump shared.
It is not "price gouging" by US refiners. It is a free market at work. 
Both Valero (in progress) and Phillips are shutting down refineries in California this year. California is scrambling looking for outside supplies. Maybe build a new refinery? What? No pipelines from Texas? 
You reap what you sow. 

A little wonky. But precisely what I was looking for and why I asked here. Most appreciated.
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Posted (edited)

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A couple hours ago this came in.

Edit: the refinery was hit one day ago about the same time, and the local officials announced that a fire started - but they put it out quickly. Sure.  

But there was another strike tonight and it sure as hell does not look like the fire has been put out.

 

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
Already in planning for a few companies I know. One has put a response team in to prepare life support and logistics. No one further east than Kyiv.

Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?
Posted
40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?

Maybe. Told you to have him reach out to me. Check out this group. Lead is a good friend. 

https://www.moas.eu/ukraine/

I am sure he would love some support. Plus me and the kid did the research already. If he reaches out to them tell kiddo to use my name. I worked with the lead since 2004 in some fun places. 

 

 

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Posted
19 hours ago, elfenix said:

and of course it's just a way for erik prince to make more money.

Erik is about to get his ass handed to him in Haiti. The bigs are going to play in Ukraine. Amentum, KBR, Aegis, Triple Canopy, etc. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Erik is about to get his ass handed to him in Haiti. The bigs are going to play in Ukraine. Amentum, KBR, Aegis, Triple Canopy, etc. 

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Posted
22 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Any positions for a recent college grad looking for exposure to the field?

Is this young man interested in hot, young Ukranians as well?   

Posted

IMG_5137.thumb.jpeg.e939ee869174d76aea1f2e5cc8ee6427.jpeg

AI says this

Quote

AI Overview
Russia historically exported about half of its refined oil products, with the rest used domestically
However, recent Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly affected this ratio by damaging refinery capacity, causing supply issues within Russia while pushing more crude oil toward export. 
Russia's oil product balance in 2021
For a typical year before the most recent events, data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows the breakdown: 
  • Refining capacity: Approximately 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd).
  • Processed crude: 5.6 million bpd.
  • Exported products: 2.8 million bpd, or about 50% of the processed crude. 
This ratio varied by product: 
  • Gasoline: Domestic consumption was prioritized, so minimal volumes were exported.
  • Diesel: Russia's refining capacity produced about double the amount of diesel needed domestically, leading to the export of about half of its annual production.
  • Other products: Russia was also a major exporter of vacuum gasoil and heavy fuel oil. 
Shift in refining capacity in 2025
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have created a supply-demand imbalance within Russia, temporarily disrupting this balance: 
  • Refinery outages: Attacks in August 2025 knocked out a significant portion of Russia's refining capacity, with Reuters estimating a loss of about 17%, or 1.1 million bpd, in refining capability.
  • Reduced processing, more exports: With less refining capacity, Russia is processing less crude oil into products and instead increasing its crude oil exports to make up the difference.
  • Domestic shortages: The damage has caused gasoline shortages in parts of Russia, requiring the government to intervene to stabilize supplies. This has forced Russia to prioritize the domestic market over foreign sales for certain fuels. 

Not being an oil baron, I did not know that Russia’s sale of refined fuel rather than crude oil brings in higher revenue, despite production costs.  

it is hard to imagine that the MOD‘s need for refined fuel hasn’t increased since the war.  And it seems true that the demand for fuel increases during harvest time in the fall in Russia.  Putin needs to bring in the crops - and supply his war - and bring in $ - so Ivan has to suck it up and not get gas for his Lada.  

I was hoping that Russia also relies on fuel oil for winter heat, but it looks like natural gas and coal supplies most of that.   Still, the start of gasoline shortages in Russia is a good thing. As is Ukraine’s ability to launch missiles with a greater range.

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if the new flamingo can truly fly 3000 KM, then the only major refinery out of reach is the Omsk refinery. 

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Posted
On 8/30/2025 at 2:45 PM, elfenix said:

and of course it's just a way for erik prince to make more money.

 

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Erik is about to get his ass handed to him in Haiti. The bigs are going to play in Ukraine. Amentum, KBR, Aegis, Triple Canopy, etc. 

So long as those guys keep their guns pointed in the right direction, and so long as we get a good value for our spend, why is this not bad good thing?  Buncha Iraq/Afghanistan vets tanned and rested.

^^^I say that only so facetiously. What's the downside here?

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