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2019 Sugar Bowl - Texas vs. Georgia


satyanash

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47 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Is Orlando still employing that dumb ass 3 man front that gets stonewalled over and over again? If so, we are going to get blown out. 

Interestingly, a stonewalled front 3 is ideal, especially against the run.

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1 hour ago, OU Sucks said:

Is this thread telling me to Bet The House On Georgia?

Yes, actually. I would like to bet your house on this game and I'll tell ya what, I'll even go halfsies on the winnings with ya, fam. 

30 minutes ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

It'd actually work great against UGA if we ran a true E-T-E with OLB's walked up on the LOS. We don't need to run 5 DB's against their passing game IMO 

 

 

                                                                                                   Jones                                                                       Sterns

 

 

Davis                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Boyd

                                                                                                           Johnson                                  Wheeler

 

                                                       Hager                   Roach                                 Nelson                                  Omenihu              McCulloch                        

Fuck yeah man. Me and you, we're on the same page. I've been screaming all season long for an aggressive 5-4-2 game plan. Hope this is it!

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(Ian Boyd) Inside the Gameplan: How to beat Georgia

The main value of this game for Texas is that they're going to face a playoff caliber program, indeed one that they'd be likely to face if they made the playoffs in upcoming seasons, that isn't Oklahoma. The Sooners are a great annual test and Texas' road to the playoffs goes through OU, but it's valuable to get a feel for where you're at relative to a program like Georgia. After all, beating an SEC power is not a hurdle that the Sooners have yet cleared.

Winning would be a positive sign but the main value is just for the players and staff to get a feel for how they look relative to one of the bigger, stronger, and more physical squads in the country. If the result is negative that will simply be a helpful indicator of what needs to change for Texas to break through in coming seasons, the actual outcome of this game is mostly meaningless although it'll be a fun exhibition.

The Georgia Bulldogs

The Dawgs are actually somewhat similar to Texas in their style and philosophy on both sides of the ball. For instance, here's a shot at one of their offensive plays:

giphy.gif

They're a pro-spread team similar to Texas but with a different flavor to their passing game and much less QB run game. Like Texas, the heart of their offense is the 11 personnel package and the inside zone play. The clip above is an unbalanced spread set that combines a quick screen, a TE running a stick route, and the inside zone play. They’re using Jake Fromm’s command of the offense and quick passing ability and their TE’s receiving ability to create a lighter box so they can just overpower it with zone. Their blocking is a great example of what Texas is trying to become with inside zone. The Dawgs get low and maul people and then execute the combo blocks well while their backs run hard and are very difficult to tackle.

The passing game and the short-yardage game are where they really differ from Texas. Georgia has some under center, multiple tight end sets both for running it and for some of their passing sets and they like to use bunch formations to get guys open. They do run some spread iso type passing schemes, mixing in the slot fade or running 4-verticals only to throw a back shoulder fade to an outside receiver (a route Fromm excels at throwing). Georgia has really, really good TEs…

giphy.gif

...but they don’t necessarily throw to them as much as you’d think. Isaac Nauta had 29 catches for 427 yards and three scores this season.

The defense runs the tite front quite a bit, although not as much as last year, and they mix and match based on the opponent’s personnel but nickel is their main package this season. Their equivalent to the B-backer, D’Andre Walker, is a concern and he had 7.5 sacks this year. The real strength of their defense though is the safety tandem of Richard LeCounte III and J.R. Reed. Those guys cover a lot of ground on the back end and are their first and third leading tacklers. Mitigating/attacking those two will be a priority for Texas in this contest. Much like Texas, while the Georgia DL is big and talented, they tend to free up the LBs to be the playmakers moreso than doing the real damage themselves. Also much like Texas, the Dawgs didn’t have a single LB talent that was able to capitalize this year like Roquan Smith did a year ago or Malik Jefferson did at Texas.

A big part of their overall success was the fact that they could ask Deandre Baker to lock down his side of the field without help and thus be free to move LeCounte and Reed around elsewhere, much like Texas did this year with Kris Boyd. But, Baker was better and earned the Thorpe Award for his efforts.

Some of y’all may remember that Baker was pursued by Charlie Strong out of high school (he was a 3-star from Miami) before he inked with Georgia. Of course, you probably read that Baker is sitting this game out before entering the NFL draft. Their next cornerback is 6-foot-2, former 5-star freshman Tyson Campbell (also from South Florida). Presumably Campbell will draw the unenviable task of trying to match Collin Johnson unless they determine to just double Johnson and see how they fare against Humphrey without a bracket or against the run without an extra man.

Keys to victory

First, Texas has to be physical in the box against the Georgia run game. The Dawgs are in good position to put their second back (Elijah Holyfield) over 1,000 rushing yards in this game (he needs 44 yards) and their preference is to win games that way. Their culture emphasizes physicality at the line with short-yardage drills a big part of their practice regimen, you can’t shrink back there or they’ll just pound you into the ground. However, Georgia knows the spread game and they’ll understand what worked for West Virginia and other teams that ran through the Longhorns during the season. This game should be a final hurrah for the combover package:

image.png

Brandon Jones and the B-backer (Joseph Ossai here) will be the overhangs looking to keep the ball contained inside to the benefit of the linebackers while Caden Sterns, P.J. Locke, and the cornerbacks look to hold up against Fromm and the passing attack. That’s a tall order but that group is no stranger to difficult assignments and if Texas can’t come out okay in that battle then this game probably isn’t going to go terribly well for the ‘Horns.

Second, Texas needs some early counters in this game. Normally the plan is to open up by flinging it around to the big wideouts and then come back to the run game in the second quarter after establishing that failing to cover up the wideouts will carry consequences. Well Georgia is probably going to have Texas well scouted and they may be aiming to take away the wide receivers early to encourage some runs. Texas needs to come out ready to either run the ball effectively, probably with Ehlinger involved in the option on something like the power-switch scheme, or throwing it to Devin Duvernay, Andrew Beck, or whoever is lined up at running back.

It might be worth a look to open up with some empty formation sets to see what Georgia’s solutions for covering up Humphrey are and with some built-in checks to allow Ehlinger to work some misdirection plays to other targets or hit them in the run game. At any rate, Texas needs to (and will) come out with some new wrinkles and tendency breakers in anticipation of Georgia being all over their base offense. Ideally those wrinkles would also tip Georgia’s hand in terms of how the Dawgs plan to handle Texas’ go-to tactics.

If Georgia hasn’t invested the time to effectively scout and gameplan Texas and instead grant 1-on-1s to Collin Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey then obviously the Longhorns need to quickly capitalize and score as much as possible until they rectify the error.

Finally, Texas needs a big game from Ehlinger both in the run game and the passing attack. The latter is obvious, Texas isn’t much on offense without Ehlinger flinging it around to Humphrey and Johnson, but they could really use Ehlinger’s legs not only on short-yardage plays but also in helping the OL out with some option schemes on standard downs. This game would be a nice time for a Keaontay Ingram national showcase performance but that could be hard to come by unless Ehlinger can give the Dawgs something to think about with some backside keeper options or QB run RPOs.

If the shoulder is healed up and ready to go then 15-20 Ehlinger runs could go a long ways towards helping Texas pull off a big, attention-garnering win over the heavily favored Bulldogs.

Georgia’s “extra gear” to hit in this game would be going more spread and throwing the ball around with some new looks and perhaps using multiple flex tight ends to try and hunt matchups against the Longhorn linebackers and nickel. Texas has to prepare to win a slugfest in the trenches first before worrying about that eventuality but it’s something to be aware of. The Dawgs are pretty good at throwing it around if they have to. Fortunately, Georgia may not be heading into this game planning on throwing the ball much. Obviously they don’t have as much at stake even as Texas and they may not feel they need to do more than line up and run the ball in order to pull out the win.

Hopefully the staff went ahead and invested deeply in seizing on an opportunity to beat a top team that may not have put the same energy or focus into this contest. The narratives that would flow after Texas beat the team everyone is arguing should have been in the playoffs and finished with 10 wins that included victories over Oklahoma and Georgia would be pretty potent and useful on the recruiting trail.

 

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We are gonna win.  Why? Because my 8 year old daughter and I standing on the rose bowl parade route in our longhorn gear just saw the rose bowl hall of fame inductees. lil girl yells Vince really loud and he points yells Hook em right at us and she’s waving.   It’s confirmed we will win 

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13 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

We are gonna win.  Why? Because my 8 year old daughter and I standing on the rose bowl parade route in our longhorn gear just saw the rose bowl hall of fame inductees. lil girl yells Vince really loud and he points yells Hook em right at us and she’s waving.   It’s confirmed we will win 

That's awesome, she'll remember that forever. Good job Dad.

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Chip Brown: Win or lose in Sugar Bowl, expectations for Texas on the rise

NEW ORLEANS — The reward for meeting expectations is increased expectations. Regardless of how Texas reached the Big 12 title game and the Sugar Bowl this season, the expectation for Texas next year — no matter how many starters need to be replaced — will be the Big 12 title game and a New Year’s Six bowl game.

“We don’t worry about outside expectations,” Tom Herman said Monday. “In our building, no one is going to have higher expectations than ourselves.” That’s good. Because a coach's third year at a program is usually when it starts becoming clear if he's a championship-caliber coach. From Knute Rockne, Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian and Brian Kelly at Notre Dame to Barry Switzer, Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, all were in national championship contention by their third year.

Herman, who had to turn around a program after three straight losing seasons, will be in his third season in 2019 and is trending in the right direction, especially after back-to-back, Top 10 recruiting classes. The Longhorns’ passionate, starving fan base had all but forgotten how to make reservations for a Big 12 title game or a New Year’s bowl after a nine-year absence.

The Longhorns found a quarterback in Ehlinger, who will presumably keep the offense going for two more seasons. After a season-opening loss at Maryland, there was no need to think we’d end up here. So, how did we get here? In short:

No. 1 … Sam Ehlinger proved to be a tough-as-nails baller who’s “learned to read defenses as well as anyone I’ve coached,” Herman said. Ehlinger played so well redshirt freshmen quarterbacks Cameron Risingand Casey Thompson are both in the NCAA transfer portal exploring their options.

No. 2 … An offensive line that seemed to get worse as last season wore on, was revitalized by the hire of line coach Herb Hand. Graduate transfer left tackle Calvin Anderson started every game, the line stayed healthy, and redshirt freshman tackle Samuel Cosmi emerged as a star.

No. 3 … Hulking junior receivers Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson played like hulking junior receivers while speedster Devin Duvernay made plays when called upon (and should’ve been called upon more). Johnson is 55 receiving yards against Georgia from joining Humphrey as a 1,000-yard receiver.

No. 4 … Safety Brandon Jones went from a tentative, error-prone missile as a sophomore to arguably the most valuable member of the defense as a junior. Jones now has a decision to make after telling Horns247’s Jeff Howe he was “pleased” with his feedback from an NFL advisory committee.

No. 5 … Charles Omenihu, who has a body by Charles Haley, put together all of his physical tools as a senior and became the Big 12 Defensive Lineman Of The Year. Omenihu did it despite playing out of position as a 4i technique much of the season.

No. 6 … Tre Watson proved to be a graduate transfer blessing at running back along with freshman Keaontay Ingram. Ingram and Tre Watson gave the Longhorns a pair of running backs who should finish the season with more than 700 rushing yards each. The versatile Watson was the picture of consistency while Ingram, who is going to be a star, fought through knee and hip injuries.

No. 7 … With Texas wet-Kleenex thin at linebacker, leading tacklers Gary Johnson (one game missed due to a violation of team rules) and Anthony Wheeler remained healthy all season.

No. 8 … Despite losing the battle to start at quarterback to Ehlinger, Shane Buechele continued to prepare like a starter and was ready when needed in critical wins over Baylor and Iowa State.

No. 9 … The emergence of “Dicker the Kicker.” Cameron Dicker proved he can handle the big moment and became a Red River Shootout legend as a freshman.

No. 10 … Last but not least, Herman reminded everyone why he’s considered an elite offensive mind when he took over the offense in Tim Beck’s absence during preparation for Kansas State and OU. After beating the Sooners and Baylor in October, Texas was alone in first place in the Big 12 as the only undefeated team in league play heading into its bye week.

Then, back-to-back losses coming out of the bye week — at Oklahoma State and at home against West Virginia, amid a defensive identity crisis — had the Longhorns needing help to reach the Big 12 title game. A lifeline came in the form Oklahoma State handing West Virginia its second Big 12 loss in late November. After OU escaped Morgantown with a win, it was off to Jerry World for the Red River Shootout Part Deux.

When Oklahoma got a berth in the College Football Playoff after beating Texas for OU’s fourth straight Big 12 title, the Longhorns got into the Sugar Bowl despite a 9-4 record. Texas suffered a loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, but still managed to secure a Sugar Bowl bid.

Whether critics think Texas deserves to be in New Orleans or not, the Longhorns are here … with a great opportunity. “We’re coming to play to a standard and make a statement to ourselves that we’re an elite program,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Monday. Beat Georgia and Texas probably opens next season in the Top 10, where the elite programs live. “We’re putting our culture up against their culture, and let’s see,” said Humphrey, who became Texas’ ninth, 1,000-yard receiver this season.”

No matter what happens against Georgia, the expectations for Texas in 2019 won't be going down. And the Longhorns have to replace:

— Leading rusher Watson (167 carries, 695 yards, 4.2 yards per attempt, three touchdowns; and 20 catches for 137 yards and three receiving touchdowns), provided an underrated-but-critical, one-two punch with Ingram at running back.

Most likely replacement: Incoming freshman Derrian Brown

— Three starters on the offensive line (Anderson, left guard Patrick Vahe and right guard/captain Elijah Rodriguez).

Most likely replacements: Cosmi to left tackle with Tope Imade and Junior Angilau at guard and Denzel Okafor at right tackle.

— All three starters on the defensive line (nose tackle Chris Nelson, end/captain Breckyn Hager and Omenihu).

Most likely replacements: Gerald Wilbon and Keondre Coburn at nose with Malcolm Roach, Ta'Quon Graham, Moro Ojomo, Marqez Bimage and Jamari Chisholm battling it out at end.

— The team’s top three tacklers (linebackers Johnson, Wheeler and nickelback P.J. Locke III) and possibly the team’s fourth-leading tackler — Jones — if he decides to enter the NFL draft.

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Scipio Tex: Texas-Georgia Sugar Bowl Preview

The 9-4 Longhorns have a marquee match-up with a 11-2 Georgia team that many believed deserved a spot in the College Football Playoff after going toe-to-toe with Alabama in the SEC Title Game before succumbing 35-28 after a 14 point 4th quarter Crimson Tide rally. This game is a great opportunity for Texas. Texas has little to lose, is playing with house money and as a 12.5 point underdog, the staff should be able to simultaneously cultivate a sense of disrespect for the Longhorn brand as a double digit underdog with a what-do-we-have-to-lose commitment to cutting it loose on the field. Put more succinctly: it's time to let some nuts hang.

Georgia is the better team overall. And so what? Match-ups and motivation matter in bowl games. A lot. Re-watch the Army-Houston game if you want to see an extreme example of what those elements can yield when one team really wants to be there and the other is brooding over some sense of slight. If Texas shows up on both sides of the ball and Georgia leaves their best football on Bourbon Street, Tom Herman and the Longhorns will notch a signature win.

Texas Opportunities

The Loss of Georgia CB De'Andre Baker. The decision by Georgia's best defender to forgo the Sugar Bowl is a terrific break for the Longhorns. Georgia has the #3 S+P Adjusted Pass Defense in college football and Baker was a huge reason why. He's a superb pure coverage corner with elite quickness that allows him to drape #1 wide receivers and concede very little underneath. The Bulldogs slanted all of their coverages accordingly. His loss means that the Dawgs will pair redshirt freshman Eric Stokes with Baker's sophomore replacement Mark Webb. Both are very good athletes (just assume now that's the default description for every Georgia player given their recruiting classes since Smart arrived), but neither will have the experience to deal with Johnson and LJH in extended single coverage. And why might that coverage be extended, you ask?

The Lack of Georgia Pass Rush. The Bulldogs have amassed a humble 22 sacks in 13 contests. 7.5 of those sacks come from outstanding OLB D'Andre Walker. You might want to take mental note here that almost the entire Georgia roster is named some variation of D'andre, DeAndre, D'Andre, Da'ndre dre dre, or Donkey Teeth. Anyway, pass rush. It's lack is surprising for a Dawg defense with good talent and team speed, but they play schematically with a heavy bias towards coverage and containment and don't try to force pressure when teams try to get the ball out quickly. It might seem counterintuitive that one of the best pass defenses in college football doesn't get particularly good pocket pressure consistently, but Georgia believes their seven in coverage are better than the offense's four or five running routes. While their secondary athletes range better than any other Texas has seen this year, a decent bit of that pass defense is a schematic Jenga built on the now absent Baker. They've excelled at getting stops on 3rd and long all year. How much of that was Baker freeing them to effectively double team other receiving options? We're gonna find out.

Georgia Can Struggle Against The Run Situationally. They've been very solid against most of their slate, but Missouri ran the ball pretty well when the Dawgs throttled Drew Lock in the passing game, LSU broke off some really big chunk gains (including a 59 yard scamper by QB Joe Burrow) running right at them, and Alabama did a nice job of popping some key runs when Georgia worked to take away Tua Tagovailoa's arm and outside threats. Georgia will give up some long runs when teams spread them out or they overplay the pass. Texas lacks big play ability in its conventional running game and doesn't get much push at the point of attack, but there will be opportunity for Sam Ehlinger on some key downs if the Longhorn passing game threatens. Conveniently, Georgia doesn't make a lot of tackles for loss against opponent running games. The upshot? I don't expect Texas RBs to have a big day, but we should be able to stay out of 2nd and 3rd and long if the OL plays clean and doesn't hold.

Georgia Experience. There's a sense that Georgia is a veteran, proven, time-tested squad. Not really. They're as young as Texas and start a surprising number of underclassmen on the OL and on their defense. They've been in two really competitive games all year. They lost both of them (with the LSU game outright getting away from them). Georgia's best football is ahead of them. But this team isn't exactly battle scarred. The opponents that punched back have done just fine. Every other Georgia win has been by double digits.

Georgia Strengths

Georgia Running Game. Given QB Jake Fromm's non-participation in the running game, they might have the best conventional pro style running game college football. Averaging over 250 yards per game at 6 yards per clip is testament to that. Why do they run so well? Terrific running backs (Holyfield and Swift run with power and speed and are sure NFL RBs), a very good, very big, surprisingly young run blocking OL and good schemes. I believe their run game coordinator has a great sense of what the defense is trying to do against the run and the Dawgs are particularly adept at coaching their backs and OL to carry defenders where they want to go...and then keep them rolling that way unwillingly as the back extends and then cuts back hard against the grain. To be kind, Texas has struggled with basic run fits and our linebackers and safeties will have to show some heart and head for 4 quarters of play. Parts of the Longhorn Run D are well built for this (Nelson, Roach, Omenihu) Georgia running attack but the hinge players have to show that they can play sound football.

Jake Fromm, Game Manager. When the "game manager" has a 27-5 TD/INT ratio, averages over 9 yards per pass attempt and a run-biased offense coverts 3rd down nearly 50% of the time, there are a lot of offensive coordinators in college football who would like to have this particular game manager holding the reins. Somehow, Fromm has managed to go from overrated to underrated in the course of a single season. Meanwhile, Texas has surrendered over 50% conversions on 3rd down for the last six games and ranked in the cellar of the Big 12 overall in 3rd down defense. Given the apples to apples nature of Big 12 play and the state of the league's defenses, that ain't good. The very real possibility of the Texas defense playing the run well but still conceding 3rd and 6+ on money downs is a sure fire bet to lose this game and have Texas faithful wondering just what level of individual and unit teaching is happening on that side of the football.

Georgia's Pass Defense. Georgia has the #1 Adjusted 3rd Down Pass Defense in college football. They certainly dialed in on some very good QBs (Lock, Tua) this year. But they also faced more than their share of limp-armed scrubs. Their LBs and DBs run extremely well and they play with great discipline, which is a tribute to their staff and head coach. How much of their play and scheme is a function of the CB Baker and facing largely conventional SEC passing attacks? Georgia is built to run and cover ground. Are they built to battle two 6-4+ WRs in the post?

Final Thoughts

On defense, Texas doesn't have to stop the run all of the time. Just when it matters. On 3rd and short. Goal line. When Georgia goes heavy and declares its intentions pre-snap. There's reasonable hope that Texas can do exactly that, which means that the Longhorn pass defense will have to demonstrate the ability to rally on 3rd and 4th down and get a good Georgia offense off of the field. You can't keep giving them cracks at it. Too much talent.

Based on the statistics, one might guess that Texas should try to run the ball on offense. I don't think so. In fact, Texas should roll out the Big 12-iest game plan possible. Make the field big. Throw early, often and on non-traditional downs and situations. Roll out some new formations. Avoid our base running offense unless it's to lay a trap. Attack Baker's replacement. Force Georgia to play honest coverages with some of the personnel that they may have been hiding with double teams. Put the game in the hands of Ehlinger and the Longhorn outside receivers. Test to see if Georgia can mount a pass rush and get Sam Ehlinger on the ground. Similarly, given that there's no ammo to save for the next week, don't be shy about letting #11 pick up cheap first downs and convert goal line situations with his legs when the Longhorns spread the field out.

Nothing to lose, a lot to gain. Hook 'em.

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Just now, Surly Bevo said:

Which doesn't make it particularly favorable, but I guess ya never know

herman's O is all about ball control.  you have to control the LOS.  especially this year with our subpar D.

I keep hoping Hand is the guy we've needed for years.   OL recruiting is the biggest crapshoot because in high school generally(unless you are Allen or Katy) you aren't dealing with 2 deep of large humans with brains so the smartest and biggest guys get put out there, because that is all you have.  At SOME point you have to coach them up.  to me the OL coach is the most critical coach in the college game.

If we bring our A game and can run the ball for 4 a carry we'll be in it.

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2 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Actually real top grain leather has great breathability and will equalize the temperature perfectly. It's the fake leather that gets hot. Not surprising as it's ground up fibers combined with PVC. 

good to know.

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