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Nice Guy Eddie

Electoral Map math

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Playing around on this site:  https://www.270towin.com/

And it wasn't difficult to produce a 269-269 tie:  

ZnxPo.png

 

The split electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine may decide the race. Omaha's 1 electoral vote barely went for Trump over Clinton.  47%-45% or 6500 votes. Would be crazy if Omaha picks the President.

However given a lack of 270 electoral votes, the House decides the President and the Senate decides the VP.  I can't find any clarity if the new House would decide or the current one.  If anyone knows that answer, please post.

However the rules are that each state gets 1 votes in the House, so even though the Dems control the House, they don't have a majority of seats at the state level.  There the current breakdown is 26-24-1 with the GOP winning.  Pennsylvania is the split state.   If the new House (2021-22) are the voters, then who knows. Several states are right on the edge of one party or the other.

It is BS that each state is given equal weight in deciding. VT, SD, ND, AK, WY, DE become the equal of Texas or California. But thems the rules.

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If it's a tie at the top then the new house will be even less Democratic so HELLO 4 more years of Trump.

I would love to see maps from supporters of specific campaigns.

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6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I don't think he's winning FL and PA, it'll be a split 

He’s more likely to lose PA and win Wisky. 

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Just now, Js1 said:

He’s more likely to lose PA and win Wisky. 

I think he’s losing wiseky. The dems are going strong there 

Edited by tx 3 putt

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I think it breaks out thusly, with Florida as the wildcard.

spacer.png

I expect PA, MI, & WI to all flip back to Democrat just based on young, apathetic, independent, non-voters turning out to refute trump. 

Johnson got more than double the margin between Trump and Clinton in all 3 states. Jill Stein beat the margin in WI & MI. Darrell Castle beat the margin in MI. 

Trump country in those places is Trumpier, but I expect the fringe voters and no shows to turnout for the Democrat. I don’t think the numbers are there for the Trumpers because it’s so rural. A 1% blue shift in the cities and suburbs is more than entire voter turnout in some of those Trump counties. 

Edited by heso

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9 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If it's a tie at the top then the new house will be even less Democratic so HELLO 4 more years of Trump.

I would love to see maps from supporters of specific campaigns.

Because of gerrymandering you never know if state reps results would mimic state wide votes. FL could easily go blue across the state but still have more GOP reps. But I agree that it would seem that Trump outperforming his current numbers would most likely see a red tilt from 2018 results.

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Trump won't lose another close race in 2020 it'll be pretty hefty loss one way or the other - voter turnout is going to be very high this time around compared to the last few decades of elections. People either love him or hate him and want him gone - not too many people just hanging out waiting for everyone else to decide this cycle

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I think he’s losing wiseky. The dems are going strong there 

Wisky is a weird state. Their suburbs aren’t trending as blue as nationwide 

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1 minute ago, immamac said:

Trump won't lose another close race in 2020 it'll be pretty hefty loss one way or the other - voter turnout is going to be very high this time around compared to the last few decades of elections. People either love him or hate him and want him gone - not too many people just hanging out waiting for everyone else to decide this cycle

Never underestimate the apathy of voters

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Wisky is a weird state. Their suburbs aren’t trending as blue as nationwide 

They voted for Scott Walker three times since 2010. That's all you need to know about Planet Cheese. 

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Just now, GopherRock said:

They voted for Scott Walker three times since 2010. That's all you need to know about Planet Cheese. 

And Barely threw him out in a wave year. 0.9% difference 

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2 minutes ago, Bookman said:

I think this will depend upon whom the Democrats nominate.

Also this. I could see Biden opening up the map in places like NC and FL

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6 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

They voted for Scott Walker three times since 2010. That's all you need to know about Planet Cheese. 

trump needs to play the race card hard in wisky, hammer welfare queens and all non whites on any govt assistance. it'll play very well there

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1 minute ago, Bookman said:

I think this will depend upon whom the Democrats nominate.

This is such a lazy take. Each of the top D candidates offer significant sanity and sensibility benefits over trump. In no way should core supports of one candidate suddenly view Trump as a better option if their candidate loses.

Warren is polarizing, and she has a vagina. She's also extremely pro-education, anti-wall street, and pro-labor. These are deep blue causes.

Bernie has the socialism anchor around his neck, put there by a very effective disinformation campaign run by the right. If you prefer Biden or Warren, but Bernie gets the nod, realize that he's trying to bring healtcare to the people, and offer a safety net so that our weakest and poorest don't flounder and literally die. Again, basically the definition of Blue.

Biden has his shortcomings, and he's sort of the last 'professional politician" on the blue side. He's got skeletons in his closet, because he's been in politics long enough to have seen a massive evolution in the way Americans address major issues. He's also the most qualified public servant on the left side of the aisle right now (that's not a slight to Sens Warren or Sanders, who both have sheepskins in politics). Joe has seen and done it on the biggest stages, and can get shit done. His skeletons PALE in comparison to the ones on the right side of the aisle.

Don't play the both sides game when it comes to this election. This isn't a "both sides" issue. Vote blue; vote common human decency.

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7 minutes ago, Bookman said:

I think this will depend upon whom the Democrats nominate.

warren and biden are taking a hard step back to the center after locking up the nomination. so that'll help them

bernie isn't budging 

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2 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

This is such a lazy take. Each of the top D candidates offer significant sanity and sensibility benefits over trump. In no way should core supports of one candidate suddenly view Trump as a better option if their candidate loses.

Warren is polarizing, and she has a vagina. She's also extremely pro-education, anti-wall street, and pro-labor. These are deep blue causes.

Bernie has the socialism anchor around his neck, put there by a very effective disinformation campaign run by the right. If you prefer Biden or Warren, but Bernie gets the nod, realize that he's trying to bring healtcare to the people, and offer a safety net so that our weakest and poorest don't flounder and literally die. Again, basically the definition of Blue.

Biden has his shortcomings, and he's sort of the last 'professional politician" on the blue side. He's got skeletons in his closet, because he's been in politics long enough to have seen a massive evolution in the way Americans address major issues. He's also the most qualified public servant on the left side of the aisle right now (that's not a slight to Sens Warren or Sanders, who both have sheepskins in politics). Joe has seen and done it on the biggest stages, and can get shit done. His skeletons PALE in comparison to the ones on the right side of the aisle.

Don't play the both sides game when it comes to this election. This isn't a "both sides" issue. Vote blue; vote common human decency.

Clarifying - this isn't a shot at Bookman or JS1. I know it reads like one. It's a shot at the morons in middle America who can't stand to see their hard-earned minimum wage minimal taxes go to help their fellow man "because the libs."

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Each candidate has their own pluses and minuses for different states but I imagine that will only be around the edges. But some states may be decided on those edges. 

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I wonder how many people who voted for Hillary in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020.

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2 minutes ago, Bookman said:

I wonder how many people who voted for Hillary in 2016 will vote for Trump in 2020.

the opposite question produces a higher number. 

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25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Wisky is a weird state. Their suburbs aren’t trending as blue as nationwide 

We lived there for a number of years. IMO, outside of Madison and some of Milwaukee, it's pretty red. And the suburbs probably thought Scott Walker would mellow over time like Tommy Thompson. They had a proud history of progressiveness and education but flushed it all down the toilet because of tan suits and tears.

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I don’t like the way 270 lists combinations. They list 5 states and NE2 as up for grabs. That’s 64 combinations. 
But 270 lists Democrats as only having 7 combinations, Republicans 4 combinations and 2 ties. 

But in reality the Democrats have 48 combinations, Republicans have 14 combinations and 2 tie combinations. 
That’s because Florida is listed as 1 combination for the Ds because Florida is enough alone to get 270. But Florida should be 32 combinations. 
Meanwhile the Republican combinations look like FL, PA, NC, AZ. That 1 combination is really 4 combinations. 
The simplest D path requires 1 state, the simplest R path requires 4 states. 
D 48 R 14 Tie 2 should be the combination total. 

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2 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

I don’t like the way 270 lists combinations. They list 5 states and NE2 as up for grabs. That’s 64 combinations. 
But 270 lists Democrats as only having 7 combinations, Republicans 4 combinations and 2 ties. 

But in reality the Democrats have 48 combinations, Republicans have 14 combinations and 2 tie combinations. 
That’s because Florida is listed as 1 combination for the Ds because Florida is enough alone to get 270. But Florida should be 32 combinations. 
Meanwhile the Republican combinations look like FL, PA, NC, AZ. That 1 combination is really 4 combinations. 
The simplest D path requires 1 state, the simplest R path requires 4 states. 
D 48 R 14 Tie 2 should be the combination total. 

spacer.png

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The other crazy constitutional rule is that in the event of no one reaching 270, is the Senate would almost assuredly elect Pence as the VP. If the House was tied, or failed to decide on a majority for Prez, Pence would become the acting VP until the House decided.

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Just now, tx 3 putt said:

trump needs to play the race card hard in wisky, hammer welfare queens and all non whites on any govt assistance. it'll play very well there

Yep.

 

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Trump will continue to do whatever he can to improve people's economic standing even he completely sells out the future. And I've read that studies say that people usually lock in their economic opinions by late spring of the election year. Wouldn't shock me if we hear him start discussing social security payment increases. He's going to spends 100s of billions of future taxpayer money in order to get elected. 

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Interestingly enough everyone will probably know early.  If Penn and NC fall blue, it’s most likely over.  If any of the Great Lake states skew red, it’s over.  While Iowa and Arizona May give hope for flipping blue, they probably can’t be trusted, just like Washington or Nevada for the GOP.  Shouldn’t be a long wait to see how it’ll go...

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4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This country would burn to the ground if there's an electoral tie.

Why in the world do we have a process that can end in a tie?  That fact alone promises that it will eventually occur.  Just like in sports, tie breakers have to be created even if the chances of them are 0.001%. 

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Wisconsin looking to be the deciding vote.

Trump needs the entire South minus VA and one of the Great Lakes.  PA and WI are the likely candidates and WI probably more likely.

Dems need PA and any of the NC, FL, WI.  WI still the most likely.

Outside of something odd like AZ going blue, we'll know early.

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Clarifying - this isn't a shot at Bookman or JS1. I know it reads like one. It's a shot at the morons in middle America who can't stand to see their hard-earned minimum wage minimal taxes go to help their fellow man "because the libs."


You said his take was lazy and it wasn’t. Your take is naive. If you don’t believe there are a block of voters out there that would vote for a more central democratic candidate and won’t vote for a farther left democratic candidate, then you don’t understand a very significant block of voters that are out there deciding what to do. They are out there.

We can argue whether it’s a large or small block, but given how close the last election was, even a small block could decide the election. I’m also not sure I agree with Immamac’s view that the election won’t be close. I think it will. There are a lot of people out there that will vote for Trump no matter what and that may rival the massive block that hates him.

Some of the farther left-leaning Surly board members continue to believe that it doesn’t matter how far left the candidate campaigns. I just disagree completely with this viewpoint, even if the candidate tries to walk back to the middle in the general election. Trump and the Republicans will hammer those policies that were discussed during the primaries.

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You said his take was lazy and it wasn’t. Your take is naive. If you don’t believe there are a block of voters out there that would vote for a more central democratic candidate and won’t vote for a farther left democratic candidate, then you don’t understand a very significant block of voters that are out there deciding what to do. They are out there.

We can argue whether it’s a large or small block, but given how close the last election was, even a small block could decide the election. I’m also not sure I agree with Immamac’s view that the election won’t be close. I think it will. There are a lot of people out there that will vote for Trump no matter what and that may rival the massive block that hates him.

Some of the farther left-leaning Surly board members continue to believe that it doesn’t matter how far left the candidate campaigns. I just disagree completely with this viewpoint, even if the candidate tries to walk back to the middle in the general election. Trump and the Republicans will hammer those policies that were discussed during the primaries.
But we can't have any compromise because compromise is bad! We either have to WIN SOCIALISM NOW or deal with 4 more years of Fuckface Trump. No inbetweens.

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4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Some of the farther left-leaning Surly board members continue to believe that it doesn’t matter how far left the candidate campaigns. I just disagree completely with this viewpoint, even if the candidate tries to walk back to the middle in the general election. Trump and the Republicans will hammer those policies that were discussed during the primaries.

 

I'm here as well. Yes, some on the Left want a progressive candidate that will excite them to help get out the vote. But I don't think that would overcome losing moderates or independents turned off by progressive ideas. I think the main message should be "not be Trump" and fairly benign in their views. I could be wrong.

Trump is going to have a strong economic argument that almost (all?) states have continued economic growth since 2016. Trump won't give Obama credit but he doesn't have to since he has continued it somewhat. Almost any other incumbent would be walking into a electoral landslide with that message.

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18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump will continue to do whatever he can to improve people's economic standing even he completely sells out the future. And I've read that studies say that people usually lock in their economic opinions by late spring of the election year. Wouldn't shock me if we hear him start discussing social security payment increases. He's going to spends 100s of billions of future taxpayer money in order to get elected. 

Yes, short term gains are his thing. One thing that really upsets the apple cart is the big unknown. An incident. A tragedy. Those loose cannons out there like the El Paso shooter, the militia in Virginia right now, protestors. Sometimes it lights the fuse and is unstoppable. For all we talk about apathy, there are those who are looking for something, anything to rally behind. I like to hope that it is for something good, something positive. But alas, I gave my magic 8 ball to the local charity.

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Playing around on this site:  https://www.270towin.com/

And it wasn't difficult to produce a 269-269 tie:  

 

The split electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine may decide the race. Omaha's 1 electoral vote barely went for Trump over Clinton.  47%-45% or 6500 votes. Would be crazy if Omaha picks the President.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1IZdqPYuts

 

damnit won't embed

Edited by elfenix

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27 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Wisconsin looking to be the deciding vote.


And that's the basis for the "hold your nose and root for Biden" strategy if you primarily care about getting Trump out of power.  

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1 minute ago, Paul Wesley said:


And that's the basis for the "hold your nose and root for Biden" strategy if you primarily care about getting Trump out of power.  

If the conventional wisdom is that Biden can win WI, MI and PA without sacrificing any other Hillary-won state, then he's a no-brainer to nominate in order to take back the WH. But if he slipped up and lost one of them, Trump has another 4 years.

Both sides have very narrow paths to victory, and many ways to lose. And even though it sounds silly, spending money to win Omaha or the split Maine vote, could be worthwhile.

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If the conventional wisdom is that Biden can win WI, MI and PA without sacrificing any other Hillary-won state, then he's a no-brainer to nominate in order to take back the WH. But if he slipped up and lost one of them, Trump has another 4 years.

Both sides have very narrow paths to victory, and many ways to lose. And even though it sounds silly, spending money to win Omaha or the split Maine vote, could be worthwhile.

I think Biden gives you multiple options, including AZ, NC and FL. 

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31 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Wisconsin looking to be the deciding vote.

which is why the fight over purging the voter rolls is so fierce.  it's nasty.

Quote

On Tuesday, Wisconsin’s election oversight board met again to consider the core issue: Should some 200,000 registered voters flagged by a computer algorithm as having changed their residences be purged from voter lists before the November election if they do not respond to a second mailing, or should the commission wait to decide on its approach?

The session ended with the once-unanimous Elections Commission divided along party lines — three Republicans now supporting purging the voters, three Democrats pushing to keep them. As tensions mounted, one Republican commissioner called his Democratic colleagues’ refusal to clean up the voter rolls “terribly disgusting,” later amending that to “outrageous” amid criticism over the comments.

“We cannot say there is no fraud in elections when there is fraud, cheating and stealing in every other human endeavor,” that commissioner, Robert F. Spindell, said in the meeting in Madison. By not removing voters who probably moved, he said, “we’re opening up the doors to who knows what.”

Democrats on the commission rejected that argument. Rather than improving election security, they said, removing some registrations before November would mostly confuse and disenfranchise eligible voters.

“These are eligible, registered voters,” said Julie M. Glancey, a Democratic commissioner. “They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, illegal or anything else. They are true people who registered to vote and are eligible to register to vote. They may or may not have moved.”

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/wisconsin-voter-purge.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-voter-purge-appeals-court-halts-209000-voters-from-purge-today-2020-01-14/

 

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think Biden gives you multiple options, including AZ, NC and FL. 

I haven't seen the latest polling, but isn't Florida the obvious flip if its Biden? He'd fucking crush it with their olds. 

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1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

I haven't seen the latest polling, but isn't Florida the obvious flip if its Biden? He'd fucking crush it with their olds. 

RCP:

NC - Biden +3.2

FL - Biden +2.7

AZ - Biden +0.3

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