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Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?


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Season ended 3 days ago. 2020 for the Astros was just an incredible beat down of a year, made mildly palatable by them boys showing championship level grit in the playoffs to give themselves and this version of the team a champions end.  Proud of what they did in the post season after so much adversity in losing the GM, manager, and so many important pieces.  
We all have our hopes and dreams on bringing all the guys back, but I just don't see it. Bye George. Love you.  Bye Brantley- you were a pro's pro.  Thanks for the efforts- sorry we didn't get you a ring.

Roster churn I'm looking for (expect)/hoping for (me talking)

Collect insurance on JV's contract (hopefully it's insured and hopefully for at least 75%), Waive Osuna (last year of deal- expect + hope), Lose Springer (expect- so sad), Lose Brantley (expect- also sad), lose Reddick (expect/hope), trade Greinke (hope- don't expect), go to Arbitration with Lance at around $8,000,000 (expect/hope), DFA Devenski (expect/hope), DFA Diaz (expect- don't see them wanting to give him $4 million), try to sign Peacock on a make good deal/show you are healthy for 1 year, 

Player/Salary- 2021- projected by me

SP-  (70 million- minus JV's insurance check if he has any insurance)

JV- dead money- hopefully insured- 33 million

Greinke- 24,500,000

Mccullers- final year- arbitration- 8 million?

Framber- minimum wage

Urquidy- minimum wage

Javier- Minimum wage

Whitley- Minimum wage

Relief Pitchers (25 million- bring back Pressley and Smith, cut bait on Osuna and Devo- spend 12 million on 2 FA signings, rest minimum wage guys from this year and the farm

Pressly- 8.75 million

Osuna (likely gone- have to imagine- 10 million- arb 4)

Joe Smith- 4 million

Devo- 2.1 (likely gone)

bullpen upgrade/Osuna Replacement (I'd go with Betances if he opts out and is likely to be healthy; other names in play maybe Boxburger, Wade Davis, Malancon, Soria, Treinen, Workman, Loop, Watson). Note- with the season being as goofy as it is I have no idea if any of the other relievers out there are good or suck- but I imagine you want to try to find 2 more good ones and fill out the rest with minimum wage guys

Infield (75 million)

Maldonado- 3.5

backup- minimum

Guriel- 6.5 million

Altuve- 29 million

Correa (9.1 million this year- project to 18 million next year)

Bregman- 12.7 million

Diaz (if back- 4 million in arbitration- DFA candidate)

OF (25 million)

Tucker- Minimum wage

Alvarez- minimum wage

Straw- minimum wage

FA OF #1

FA OF #2

Boys, that's a pretty shitty OF crop outside of our two guys- I imagine we are shopping in the bargain bin, but Brantly paired with Billy Hamilton or Jake Marisnick or Jackie Bradley Jr., (defensive guy in CF) wouldn't have me complaining too much.  

That's a 200 million dollar payroll for tax purposes if you jettison Diaz, Osuna, Devo, with room to add 25 million in OF talent and 12 million or so in the bullpen, doing nothing with the starting pitching.  That's my first stab.  

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Given that seemingly every guy in Tampa's bullpen throws 100, you would think Click will be looking for some guys who can do that but who knows after what they decided to go in to this season with.  It's gonna be really interesting to watch him this offseason.  I am very much on the fence.

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Your thoughtful op overcomes any misgivings I might have had about thread title. 
 

I expect Crane to try and pare back the payroll somewhat. And I don’t blame him giving the financial pain of 2020 and the uncertainties of the next few years. COVID and CBA problems are lurking. 

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39 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Given that seemingly every guy in Tampa's bullpen throws 100, you would think Click will be looking for some guys who can do that but who knows after what they decided to go in to this season with.  It's gonna be really interesting to watch him this offseason.  I am very much on the fence.

Me too, for sure. 

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30 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Your thoughtful op overcomes any misgivings I might have had about thread title. 
 

I expect Crane to try and pare back the payroll somewhat. And I don’t blame him giving the financial pain of 2020 and the uncertainties of the next few years. COVID and CBA problems are lurking. 

Yeah- I think my payroll numbers represent the absolute upside of where payroll will be, and that's about $180M in real world money after (hopefully) collecting insurance.  He could just jettison the guys I called to jettison (Osuna, Devo, Diaz and trade Greinke) and replace the OF with a spare journeyman for $5M and do no bullpen upgrades (our big upgrade is we are getting Joe Smith back) and he could pare payroll to something like 120M and have a team that probably wins the wild card and maybe division

Crane's a cheap bastard nightmare scenario

5  (10 Million) SP- LMJ, Framber, Uriquidy, Javier, Whitley (or Garcia); 

8 (15 million) RP- Pressley, Smith, James, Parades, Scrub, Taylor, Raley, (whitley or Garcia)

8  (75 million)- Inf- Maldonado, Guriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Toro, Mayfield, Stubbs

4 (3 million) OF- Tucker, Straw, Ronnie Dawson, Chas Mccormick,

1 (1 million) DH Yordan. 

104M. I think that team would win somewhere between 78-95 games depending upon health, development, luck, what other teams in the division do etc. This would be what Crane going super cheap looks like.  Honestly, if that came with an extension for Correa (10- 300), Lance (3-45) and a promise to work at the trade deadline to get a representative major leaguer at the deadline to replace any of the kids that couldn't cut it I could live with it.  That's no ace, but 6 decent arms in the starting rotation with a lot of potential, a bullpen that isn't great but isn't likely a disaster, plus bats at 2b, SS, 3B, LF and DH, average bat at C, below avg at 1b, probably pretty bad at CF and RF.


I don't think Crane goes super cheap like this. The season ticket holder in me would be furious (but I'd be happy if we got to get back into the ballpark I guess), but thats only really 3 or 4 guys that probably don't belong on a major league roster.  JL really did a fucking incredible job building this organization.


It also shows that if they were creative they really could afford to sign Springer for 5/150 and Brantley for 3/60 (my guess on their market values).  That'd still only be 150 million in payroll if you got off Greinke and the other guys I'm talking about. Yeah, that payroll would be $185M on the official books b/c of JV- but most of that is coming back Crane's way.  

 

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’d put over under at 135. 

Over under WAR 4.3? And one has to ask how far low his WAR will average out over say a 5 year span. 3? 2.5? Also what value does he have monetarily for the team as far as fan attendance and merch sales etc. go?

I'm sure these are all questions Click is pondering over and I'm sure it would help to know if fans will be allowed 100 percent attendance at MMP on April 8th. A lot of questions need to be answered about life in general before owners start writing checks. I honesty feel bad for every free agent this year. 

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1 hour ago, Ichabod said:

Over under WAR 4.3? And one has to ask how far low his WAR will average out over say a 5 year span. 3? 2.5? Also what value does he have monetarily for the team as far as fan attendance and merch sales etc. go?

I'm sure these are all questions Click is pondering over and I'm sure it would help to know if fans will be allowed 100 percent attendance at MMP on April 8th. A lot of questions need to be answered about life in general before owners start writing checks. I honesty feel bad for every free agent this year. 

Honestly, I don’t think they are thinking about any of that. I think they are figuring we aren’t paying top of the market and we will collect a draft pick. Done. Hope I’m wrong. 

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10 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Kinda heartbreaking when he stills says “we” while talking about the players on this year’s team. I think he really came off well.  Didn’t dime anyone out.  Just told his side.  It felt really genuine to me.  I’d welcome him back tomorrow.  

Heartbreaking indeed. I’d take him back in a second. That said, we should vacate the title. 

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48 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Kinda heartbreaking when he stills says “we” while talking about the players on this year’s team. I think he really came off well.  Didn’t dime anyone out.  Just told his side.  It felt really genuine to me.  I’d welcome him back tomorrow.  

Luhnow is a class act. I knew in my heart he was made the fall guy and the interview proved I was right. If you were lucky enough to have met him like I did you’d know that someone with his intelligence, credentials and pride in building the best organization in sports would never have jeopardized his career and reputation. It is clear that Cora and Beltran were the ones behind it. The biggest tragedy in Houston sports history is that Luhnow was let go. He still loves this team you could tell

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1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

Kinda heartbreaking when he stills says “we” while talking about the players on this year’s team. I think he really came off well.  Didn’t dime anyone out.  Just told his side.  It felt really genuine to me.  I’d welcome him back tomorrow.  

No ducking shit. Hinch too. Crane should have told Manfried to fuck his own face. 

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4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

He was in the process of signing a contract with the Braves and got Covid. No one really considered him after that, for what reason I am not sure. He would have upgraded the lineup over Reddick.

Yeah- I’d definitely take him. I have no idea what his market value is, especially with a missed year. Is he a 1 year 10 million kind of guy- 3/60?  4/75?  I honestly have no freaking idea. 

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Looking at the list of free agent OF, after George, Uncle Mike, and Ozuna, there's not much to be excited about.  How would anyone feel about homecomings for Rake Farm, Marwin, Bob Grossman, or Kike?

For relievers, I'd be interested in Hendriks, Trienen, and Workman, maybe McGee as a lefty?  It's hard to say really.  I never seem to have a feel for what kind of contract relievers end up getting.  Also, the organization and Strom are good at identifying guys that they can fix.

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Yup, agree that Puig makes some sense. 

He'll be 30 next season. He shouldn't cost much, in terms of dollars or years. He's not the great hitter he appeared to be in his first 2 years, but he has consistently been above average. 

Makes some sense given the apparent holes coming up in the OF. 

If Brantley signs for another couple of seasons, I could see the team rolling with Straw or signing a guy like Pillar to play CF. 

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11 minutes ago, WBT said:

Looking at the list of free agent OF, after George, Uncle Mike, and Ozuna, there's not much to be excited about.  How would anyone feel about homecomings for Rake Farm, Marwin, Bob Grossman, or Kike?

For relievers, I'd be interested in Hendriks, Trienen, and Workman, maybe McGee as a lefty?  It's hard to say really.  I never seem to have a feel for what kind of contract relievers end up getting.  Also, the organization and Strom are good at identifying guys that they can fix.

If we brought back Brantley I’d love to see Jake in CF if we have to go cheap to fill that spot. If Tucker is legit (looks like he is) that’s a fair mix of offense and defense in the OF. Prefer Jake to either of those other names if we brought back Brantley. If not I could talk myself into a grossman or Martin signing as the best of a really crappy OF choices. 

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16 minutes ago, wood said:

In the teaser video, Luhnow talked about the Red Sox and Yankees sign stealing. Did he say more in the interview about that?

Nope. Just told his part of the story.  He referenced that both teams had been sanctioned in 2017, but didn’t make any claims or allegations beyond that.  

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I thought Luhnow was great in the interview.  I'm sure there's something you could pick apart and claim he is lying and was the mastermind, but he has always come across honest to me (if anything, to a fault).  Wherever he ends up, I'll root for him.  Losing him was easily the biggest blow from the whole thing, and ultimately the most unfair.

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Players I do not want starting the majority of the games at any OF position:  Straw, Marisnick, Marwin, Grossman, Kike.

I would rather roll with someone like Bradley Jr, or Pillar over any of those guys.  I wanted us to sign Puig 2 months ago, so I would be down for that as well.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Players I do not want starting the majority of the games at any OF position:  Straw, Marisnick, Marwin, Grossman, Kike.

I would rather roll with someone like Bradley Jr, or Pillar over any of those guys.  I wanted us to sign Puig 2 months ago, so I would be down for that as well.  

 

If I gave you a combo of Jake and Uncle Mike would you prefer that or Pillar Jackie Bradley junior?  

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