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On 7/22/2020 at 12:12 PM, Rougarou said:

I mean, you aren't wrong. This is why history is written by those who can solve big problems, I guess. But I guarantee you that the brightest minds in technology, and specifically USA/Silicon Valley, are paying attention and seeing China as a threat-- maybe those brilliant (and morally flexible, cut-throat) people can figure something out for the heartland.

They have, to an extent. Most of them now have an extensive remote workforce, and will hire people that live anywhere.  The issue is that most people in the heartland who code or are ready to do other remote jobs offered by tech firms don't want to live in the heartland so they move.

When it comes to fixed labor markets in small towns, its a tough sell.  Even if manufacturers move more tech manufacturing back to the US, almost none of it will go to the old factory towns that need it.  They want locations where people will compete for the jobs.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

They have, to an extent. Most of them now have an extensive remote workforce, and will hire people that live anywhere.  The issue is that most people in the heartland who code or are ready to do other remote jobs offered by tech firms don't want to live in the heartland so they move.

When it comes to fixed labor markets in small towns, its a tough sell.  Even if manufacturers move more tech manufacturing back to the US, almost none of it will go to the old factory towns that need it.  They want locations where people will compete for the jobs.

Sure. But my point to the blurb you responded to was more, the minds in bleeding edge of tech (Stanford, MIT, etc.) who live and breathe the Silicon Valley ecosystem, can figure out the China problem (by and large winning the cyber war) for those of us rubes and Luddites outside of the coasts.

To your point, I agree with you and I am also encouraged that remote jobs seem to be trending and normalizing. I've worked from home/remote for most of my career and have done my job in a variety of states and countries, and just as long as I'm on my calls nobody cares. Scaling that out, hopefully you see a dissemination or diaspora of Bay Area tech geniuses (genuii?). Savvy ones will for sure leave just to make their money stretch further via lower taxes and cost of living/real estate/rent, but I've already heard some companies are mulling fighting back with paying the same people/roles different pay grades depending on their location and the fair market value/rate, which would be a bummer.

 

 

Edited by Rougarou

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5 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Sure. But my point to the blurb you responded to was more, the minds in bleeding edge of tech (Stanford, MIT, etc.) who live and breathe the Silicon Valley ecosystem, can figure out the China problem (by and large winning the cyber war) for those of us rubes and Luddites outside of the coasts.

To your point, I agree with you and I am also encouraged that remote jobs seem to be trending and normalizing. I've worked from home/remote for most of my career and have done my job in a variety of states and countries, and just as long as I'm on my calls nobody cares. Scaling that out, hopefully you see a dissemination or diaspora of Bay Area tech geniuses (genuii?). Savvy ones will for sure leave just to make their money stretch further via lower taxes and cost of living/real estate/rent, but I've already heard some companies are mulling fighting back with paying the same people/roles different pay grades depending on their location and the fair market value/rate, which would be a bummer.

 

 

I already see remote working getting stale for many.  I think everything will consolidate back in SV when covid is fully over.  It isn't just the "job" that causes people to aggregate.  Its the networking that allows them to get poached by other employers, or start their own company.  Plus the majority of tech people enjoy the lifestyle there. 

Wall Street is the same way.  It has been capable of fully remote work for decades.  Yet a significant share of people won't even live in New Jersey and work there.  They choose the most expensive part of one of the most expensive cities to live in intentionally.

I've done a couple of zoom networking events since covid started.  They suck and you don't really make the personal connections that are needed.

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I think we will see a hybrid of the two. Smaller offices, etc. I work with companies that must maintain a physical location due to clearances, but we don't need to be paying office space for a payroll department that needs to meet up once or twice a week to get the job done. Some very large firms (Siemens) is already moving to that model. 

One client in Northern Virginia already scaled back their footprint and gave their core team a home office budget. One dude moved into a new apartment in order to have a room just for that. Smart move by the boss in these times. 

 

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I've done a couple of zoom networking events since covid started. 

They suck and you don't really make the personal connections that are needed.

You ain't kidding.

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3 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Scaling that out, hopefully you see a dissemination or diaspora of Bay Area tech geniuses (genuii?). Savvy ones will for sure leave just to make their money stretch further via lower taxes and cost of living/real estate/rent, but I've already heard some companies are mulling fighting back with paying the same people/roles different pay grades depending on their location and the fair market value/rate, which would be a bummer.

Silicon Valley is a magnet because of the large concentration of VC money. Austin is very tech oriented city but if you compare the availability of investors in Austin to Silicon Valley it isn't in the same ballpark. The talent follows the money and the money is in the Bay Area.

By the way, Cyberwars are not won or lost. There is nothing to win. Its just digital exploitation.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, F250 said:

Silicon Valley is a magnet because of the large concentration of VC money. Austin is very tech oriented city but if you compare the availability of investors in Austin to Silicon Valley it isn't in the same ballpark. The talent follows the money and the money is in the Bay Area.

By the way, Cyberwars are not won or lost. There is nothing to win. Its just digital exploitation.

The money is in the Bay Area because the talent (Stanford) is in the Bay Area and the culture and best-practices/COE for innovation and the start-up playbook for America is ingrained in those folks. Just like, secondarily, the money is in NYC/Boston, because the talent is in NYC/Boston. What I'm saying is the money follows the talent, not the other way around. You can argue Chicken or egg, but I think it's pretty clear.

Anyways, this conversation got derailed because homeboy misunderstood/misread my original comment-- so back to the topic at hand-- China sucks (but they do have some strong tech)

Edited by Rougarou
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2 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

The money is in the Bay Area because the talent (Stanford) is in the Bay Area and the culture and best-practices/COE for innovation and the start-up playbook for America is ingrained by those folks. Just like, secondarily, the money is in NYC/Boston, because the talent is in NYC/Boston. What I'm saying is the money follows the talent, not the other way around. You can argue Chicken or egg, but I think it's pretty clear.

Anyways, this conversation got derailed because homeboy misunderstood/misread my original comment-- so back to the topic at hand-- China sucks (but they do have some strong tech)

Yes, that is how it started but now the talent follows the money which is why it's a magnet. The best and brightest will just continue to migrate to Silicon Valley expecting to be the next tech billionaire. The best thing other cities can do is foster talent and encourage partnerships and build a satellite community like Austin and Dallas have done. I agree that the money will seek out a talented community but Silicon Valley will remain the mothership.

Yeah this is way off topic but it's an important discussion for the future of the U.S. economy and how we will compete with China.

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On 7/22/2020 at 10:10 AM, Rougarou said:

This is why the only way to deal with China is to actually have a war. I think this could be accomplished with a type of Cold War with a smattering of skirmishes, but there is always the risk of full-out, mutually assured destruction type war which would cripple the US in the short-term. But at least you have your unification and alignment on bringing things back.

Just follow what is going on with semiconductors the past 3 months. Intel has fallen so far behind Taiwan (which means China, due to their nefarious geopolitical relationship) that America has had to get Taiwan Semiconductors (TSMC, which you may recognize is now the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer) to build a chip factory in Arizona because our homegrown chip companies suck and we can't even de-risk and try to separate our growing dependence on China/Taiwan without having them involved domestically. This will be a second-generation chip by the time the fab is finished with construction in 2024 which highlights just how far behind Intel is (by the way Nvidia passed Intel this past week, as a topical aside).

 

 

“Yesterday, Intel's stock slid more than 16% after it said it would delay the rollout of its 7-nanometer chip technology by a year. Intel is moving forward with its 10-nanometer process...but in this highly competitive industry, tens of billions in market value go to those who can make the next generation of smaller and more efficient transistors. 

That’s where AMD comes in. Shares of the Intel rival gained nearly 15% yesterday, pushed along by Intel’s sour announcement. It’s already making 7nm chips for laptops, and eclipsed more than 17% market share in personal computer CPUs in Q1, per Mercury Research.”

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Posted (edited)

That story doesn't indicate that the American semiconductor industry sucks, just that Intel does.  And that has always been true, in relation to semiconductor technology.  They're obviously pretty good at processors.

It's a slightly different game, but TI led the world for decades in semiconductor production, but mostly for DRAM.  They learned that being the industry leader was expensive and not profitable because the smallest dies and the most transistors were not the most profitable products, rather the just-behind-the-state-of-the-art technology was where the sales were.

So they licensed Japan, Inc. and made their money that way.

Intel has also sucked at IP strategy.  Granted, China, Inc. is a different beast.

That is where the story lies, mostly.  Japan, Inc. took a while, but mostly fell in with global business norms. Korea, Inc. mostly fell right in line.  China, Inc. is being obstreperous.

 

Edited by TwiceHorn

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