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936horn

Hey Oil Barons.......

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So I understand the Raptor is old news?  The Tremor is where it's at? (That's not me, BTW)

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26 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Phew, I was worried for a second guys.

 

Welp, it was a nice run. Guess it had to come to an end at some point. 

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1 hour ago, jeevsie said:

So I understand the Raptor is old news?  The Tremor is where it's at? (That's not me, BTW)

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Are you looking at the camera or the ceiling? 

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4 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Phew, I was worried for a second guys.

 

Talk about your all time jinxes 

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On 5/13/2020 at 9:39 AM, TonyTexas said:

That OXY severance auction is some real Hunger Games shit. 

the oxy threads on thelayoff.com are brutal. oxy has to go low because they probably don't have enough on hand for 'normal' layoff packages. also, anadarko employees are getting much better packages. 

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how much is their "normal" packages?  the apc contract gave them 3 years for involuntary termination?  if i was oxy employed id bid for 4...yolo

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You should buy an F250 and a bay boat...maybe an RV if you’d rather go camping than fishing.

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6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Why not all three?

Yep, get an extra F250 for the butler to drive 

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, get an extra F250 for the butler to drive 

So he can come out to clean the fish.

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Armybrat said:

So he can come out to clean the fish.

Yes, and you Can’t have the wife pull the boat or the camper. 

Edited by Trey3216

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They are on it while taking the picture of their setup.

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10 minutes ago, Hate said:

They are on it while taking the picture of their setup.

Damn good point !

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

They are on it while taking the picture of their setup.

This guy oilfields. 

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

All that’s missing is a side by side 

Should’ve bought a toy hauler 

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23 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Are you looking at the camera or the ceiling? 

I think the white undershirt under the polo is holding his head up.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Why are we at $33 right now?  Will it continue to rebound?  Should I execute a swap now?

Posting the above again. Not gonna buy any toys. 

Edited by Dr. Beeper

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Posting the above again. Not gonna buy any toys

giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f2914304eb1aaa7cc964c

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13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

giphy.gif?cid=4d1e4f2914304eb1aaa7cc964c

I’m not. I own very little at present. Will probably buy about 2,000 bopm and want hedging ideas. Will probably buy within weeks effective 7/1. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Posting the above again. Not gonna buy any toys. 

84 months / 0% interest 

do it !

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How can you consider yourself an oil baron if you don’t have a bay boat and F250?

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38 minutes ago, Hate said:

How can you consider yourself an oil baron if you don’t have a bay boat and F250?

Simms Custom Boat or go home 

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With a glittered hull and some Bill Dance polarized gafas?

Oh, hells yeah!

Very savvy

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7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Simms Custom Boat or go home 

But what if we need something that can run somewhere more challenging than Saluria to Sunday Beach?  

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  • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -5.0M barrels vs. +1.2M consensus, -0.7M last week.
  • Gasoline +2.8M barrels vs. -2.1M consensus, -3.5M last week.
  • Distillates +3.8M barrels vs. +1.4M consensus, +3.5M last week.

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12 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

But what if we need something that can run somewhere more challenging than Saluria to Sunday Beach?  

bruh, if you're going fast enough you can just float over the skinny stuff! 

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15 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

bruh, if you're going fast enough you can just float over the skinny stuff! 

I’m not worried about skinny as much as I am utility. I’m ok with being “slow” at 70 but have the ability to cross a bay when the weatherman got it wrong.  I still contend people experience the speed and overlook the price and shortcomings in ability of those. If I wanted skinny I’d get a hells bay to complement my current ride and use the leftover money at Alice Fayes. Rides on a cloud of air lol gtfo. 

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Word on the street is that EnCap shut downt their Dallas office (thanks Southland Royalty) and KA is giving a pretty big haircut to the Houston office. Anybody have any better info? 

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Damn, that would be pretty big news if they shut the whole Dallas office.  I've worked with some of their portcos that have not gone according to plan over the last few years for sure, but that still would be a surprise.

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Damn, that would be pretty big news if they shut the whole Dallas office.  I've worked with some of their portcos that have not gone according to plan over the last few years for sure, but that still would be a surprise.
Which ones would say have gone according to plan?

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Fair point on their portcos over the last 12 months for sure, definitely more gutters than strikes.  Some of them that I think they did pretty good on within the last 2-3 years: Ameredev, Silverback, Forge and Felix. 

I work with another one that had their assets under LOI that totally fell apart a few months ago.  I think the buyer lost quite a bit of cash that had already gone hard.  

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It’s been a crazy 6 years in the industry. The 2014 crash.  Climb back to marginal prices decent little run to 60 and then another crash.  I’ve ridden the roller coaster of building a small independent into a 200 boed org. Sold out on that but retained management. Ran for 3 years and the parent decided to sell it off in 2017.  Management team got together to take on running some assets that had gone into receivership of bond holders. Ran that, made some acquisitions along the way. Latest crash is going to bury that. Im heading to a new group that is going to put together a yield fund to try and take advantage of the opportunities this market black swan event has caused.  I don’t know the point in any of that other than this industry is the craziest thing. I swear I must have Stockholm syndrome for it or something, but i love it. I’m thankful for the opportunities I’ve had and the rewards over the years have far outweighed the rough times. Hoping the new venture takes off and this will be the end game. One more run is all I need.  

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On 5/21/2020 at 1:03 PM, The Royal We said:

Fair point on their portcos over the last 12 months for sure, definitely more gutters than strikes.  Some of them that I think they did pretty good on within the last 2-3 years: Ameredev, Silverback, Forge and Felix. 

I work with another one that had their assets under LOI that totally fell apart a few months ago.  I think the buyer lost quite a bit of cash that had already gone hard.  

The username, the avatar and the gutters & strikes reference didn't go unnoticed. bravo

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CSB...I went to high school with the CEO of Ameredev. He has some fancy multi-million dollar house in Austin. Always figured he'd be rich.

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I went to high school with the CFO - his dad was my dentist growing up.  Great dude, so glad that he has done well.

Thanks for noticing @BTW  the gutters and strikes ref really tied the post together IMO.

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On 5/19/2020 at 9:17 AM, Dr. Beeper said:

Why are we at $33 right now?  Will it continue to rebound?  Should I execute a swap now?

My view is it depends on where the reset button on price is that gets some of the shut in shale back in the game, and to what extent that production can come back on line quickly.  I’d be a bit hesitant on swaps as I’m not sure where the above scenario gets triggered and crashes things back down. Might later in a few floors for some cash flow protection. Im just not sure on where supply goes and how soon demand ramps back. 

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1 hour ago, pepper brooks said:

My view is it depends on where the reset button on price is that gets some of the shut in shale back in the game, and to what extent that production can come back on line quickly.  I’d be a bit hesitant on swaps as I’m not sure where the above scenario gets triggered and crashes things back down. Might later in a few floors for some cash flow protection. Im just not sure on where supply goes and how soon demand ramps back. 

You just said a bunch of words to say “I don’t have a fucking clue.”  Which is basically where I am. But I believe I have the ability to do this without hedging and would rather go unhedged now, or buy really cheap puts. 

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20 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You just said a bunch of words to say “I don’t have a fucking clue.”  Which is basically where I am. But I believe I have the ability to do this without hedging and would rather go unhedged now, or buy really cheap puts. 

I was “hedging” my answer 🧐

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For a handsome fee I'm willing to advise you to put on the most exotic trade of the day that you will end up regretting later. Or if you want to lock in cashflow you can put on swaps.

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Another 17 rigs dropped this week, breaking even further into record low territory. Down to 301 total. 103 below the previous low set in late May 2016. 

11th straight weekly decline for a cumulative 492 rigs laid down since the first Friday of March 2020.

I'll throw out a wild guess that the first two reports in June will show another ~25 down before hitting a bottom at ~275. The next few weeks after that will show only minor fluctuations <7 up or down. 

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