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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

EIA reports another 7.3M barrel drawdown for last week, and we've now officially bled off all of last year's oversupply. Inventory levels are back to 0% above the 5-year rolling average. 

On a sidenote, next few reports will likely be considerably off kilter due to this week's weather events.

As expected. But much quicker. 

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Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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Correct & most of those guys have the majority of their gas sold forward. It’s been more of the mid marketeers & trading shops that have been able to capitalize on it


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10 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

At the most basic level, is it cheaper for power plants to buy natural gas or wind energy? Because we know they're going to use whatever is cheaper. 

(Yes I know wind energy is heavily subsidized by the government).) 

At the most basic un-subsidized level a MW of wind energy will be cheaper than natural gas, but you also better be able to have an alternative plan if the "wind" decides not to produce. Once utility (grid) battery storage is economical, wind + battery will be the largest portion of green energy.  Multiple grids including ERCOT are adding battery storage farms as we speak, but they still aren't ready for prime time for large capacity and decent price and longevity.

It will be a game changer as without these this type storage there is basically zero "storage" on the grid / transmission lines. Any demand for power must be immediately balanced by putting that much generation into the grid. Get that balance wrong and the grid literally self destructs.

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14 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

At the most basic un-subsidized level a MW of wind energy will be cheaper than natural gas, but you also better be able to have an alternative plan if the "wind" decides not to produce. Once utility (grid) battery storage is economical, wind + battery will be the largest portion of green energy.  Multiple grids including ERCOT are adding battery storage farms as we speak, but they still aren't ready for prime time for large capacity and decent price and longevity.

It will be a game changer as without these this type storage there is basically zero "storage" on the grid / transmission lines. Any demand for power must be immediately balanced by putting that much generation into the grid. Get that balance wrong and the grid literally self destructs.

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

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27 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

The lithium is from Argentina and Chile. The refining is done in China. There has been a push for bringing refining capacity of lithium and rare earth minerals to the US.

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I would duck. 
Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 
It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 
 

Or a simple google search would indicate that China is a distant 4th from the top spot of known reserves.

Where is lithium available from? With 8 million tons, Chile has the world's largest known lithium reserves. This puts the South American country ahead of Australia (2.7 million tons), Argentina (2 million tons) and China (1 million tons).
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14 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The lithium is from Argentina and Chile. The refining is done in China. There has been a push for bringing refining capacity of lithium and rare earth minerals to the US.

So China can manufacture/refine things cheaper than any other country because of low labor costs. How does the the US become competitive? Shipping cost is my guess on how you’ll respond. 
 

Again the US goes back to a mineral that they have no control of. Chile and Argentina are stable now, but we’re talking about historically unstable countries. 
 

I know everyone has their own economic/political interests tied up in this. I don’t think the lithium /rare earth mining can scale up in the US. For one there’s probably not enough under US soil, and it’s much cheaper to mine in other countries. And oh yeah strip mining is very nasty business. Once a well is drilled and put on production, you might not notice it driving by. You’ll notice the top of a hill getting cut off. 

Figure out a way to store large quantities of natural gas near power plants and let’s be done with this shit.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, bluto said:


Or a simple google search would indicate that China is a distant 4th from the top spot of known reserves.

Where is lithium available from? With 8 million tons, Chile has the world's largest known lithium reserves. This puts the South American country ahead of Australia (2.7 million tons), Argentina (2 million tons) and China (1 million tons).

Throw a link in there. 

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11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

Its not going to be lithium, that's getting replaced by magnesium, calcium, zinc and aluminum with magnesium being leading primary candidate.  One of its major benefits is its abundance and availability.

This is not pipe dream decades from use tech, we're talking months to years.

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It’s not an either/or proposition and constantly seeing people framing it as such is a beating.
 

With EV usage increasing it’s going to take everything - increased wind/battery storage, more combined cycle nat gas plants and the existing nuke capacity currently in operation (preferably all winterized). Combine that with grid improvements and somehow reform ercot and maybe we won’t end up with 50fucking% of the state without power at the same time again. 

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6 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Its not going to be lithium, that's getting replaced by magnesium, calcium, zinc and aluminum with magnesium being leading primary candidate.  One of its major benefits is its abundance and availability.

This is not pipe dream decades from use tech, we're talking months to years.

This too. Battery tech is rapidly improving.
 

PE that was previously all upstream E&P (EnCap) piling in to battery storage indicates to me the smart money sees this coming as well. 
 

I’m heavily invested in E&P and don’t think it’s going away any time soon, but burying your head in the sand and acting like we need to proceed with nothing but fossil fuels and all renewables are worthless is wrongheaded IMO. 

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7 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It’s not an either/or proposition and constantly seeing people framing it as such is a beating.
 

With EV usage increasing it’s going to take everything - increased wind/battery storage, more combined cycle nat gas plants and the existing nuke capacity currently in operation (preferably all winterized). Combine that with grid improvements and somehow reform ercot and maybe we won’t end up with 50fucking% of the state without power at the same time again. 

This here... one caveat I'll add is all the wealthy people putting solar panels on their houses and businesses are currently hurting the process, not helping it because of how the rules are written.  They are pushing more of the cost of the infrastructure on those without because that cost is in the MW used piece. So they basically the less fortunate people are paying more to maintain and upgrade the grid for the times the more fortunate people might need it.  Also in places rules are written where the grid MUST purchase excess power that they put onto the grid. This sets up an incredibly unreliable generation source that logistically and practically becomes a nightmare for grid operators to balance.

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On 2/17/2021 at 1:41 PM, BLKNSTY said:

Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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I work on a pipeline here in the Houston area that was able to capitalize this week on high prices. We winterized all our instrumentation and took the necessary steps to keep from freezing up. Centerpoint did freeze up a few times at their regulator stations downstream of us which caused higher flow rates, but nothing major. Our line isn't the biggest (size and volume wise) compared to the big dogs (Kinder/HPL/etc) but we managed to feed a lot of city gates this week.   

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1 hour ago, BabaBooey said:

I work on a pipeline here in the Houston area that was able to capitalize this week on high prices. We winterized all our instrumentation and took the necessary steps to keep from freezing up. Centerpoint did freeze up a few times at their regulator stations downstream of us which caused higher flow rates, but nothing major. Our line isn't the biggest (size and volume wise) compared to the big dogs (Kinder/HPL/etc) but we managed to feed a lot of city gates this week.   

It’s not the size of the pipe, it’s how you use it. 

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On 2/17/2021 at 2:07 AM, tx 3 putt said:

Motiva refinery went down yesterday, due to the weather. Same for Valero port Arthur 

@tx 3 putt you're in the compressor business aren't you?  If so you're gonna need a wheelbarrow for all that money you're gonna make this year.  Just about everyone I've talked to this week has said they have more than one compressor that is beyond fucked.  Anything that didn't have a glycol system in it and just used cooling tower water froze and broke.  It's a mess.  Most people's cooling towers completely ate shit.

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7 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

@tx 3 putt you're in the compressor business aren't you?  If so you're gonna need a wheelbarrow for all that money you're gonna make this year.  Just about everyone I've talked to this week has said they have more than one compressor that is beyond fucked.  Anything that didn't have a glycol system in it and just used cooling tower water froze and broke.  It's a mess.  Most people's cooling towers completely ate shit.

 

all rotating equipment. everyone is running their equipment ragged 

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Anyone have intel they can share on Throne Petroleum?

I'm looking at some of their stuff and might make an unsolicited run at it, but background info would be good.

Eg: Who's their financial backer, does anyone have personal experience with them (good guys? shit heads?), anyone know about the quality of their operations?

TIA

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15 minutes ago, BTW said:

Anyone have intel they can share on Throne Petroleum?

I'm looking at some of their stuff and might make an unsolicited run at it, but background info would be good.

Eg: Who's their financial backer, does anyone have personal experience with them (good guys? shit heads?), anyone know about the quality of their operations?

TIA

I had a meeting with their CFO at the end of 2019, he's good friends with a client of mine who introduced us.  Very nice guy, laid back and seemed like a good dude.  I think they are backed (in part?) by Juniper Capital.  I never ended up doing any business with them. 

/CSB

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I’ll receive a small bonus this year and there’s talk of a small raise. I worked through the crash in 2014, and the 2020 disaster. I feel very fortunate. 

Same. I was shocked I got anything. No raise though and I’m ok with that. I’m just happy to have my job still.
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On 2/24/2021 at 5:10 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

I’ll receive a small bonus this year and there’s talk of a small raise. I worked through the crash in 2014, and the 2020 disaster. I feel very fortunate. 

Got my pay raise.  They even back paid it 2 months.  Our bonus was announced and it was surprisingly good.  3 percent cost of living raise is coming in April

 

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11 hours ago, bluto said:

Any read or expectation on the opec mtg this week? Crystal balls and all that.

"Expert" consensus is that they'll start tapering off production cuts, likely bringing back 500K barrels per month over the next few months. Big issue is that KSA wants to be meticulous while others, including Russia, likely want to bring back production faster than the Saudis are comfortable with. 

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34 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Apologies for CR, but I appreciate that we probably won't see POTUS tweeting "OPEC needs to open up the taps. Gas prices too high for our great American patriots!"

Yep. 

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On 2/24/2021 at 5:10 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

I’ll receive a small bonus this year and there’s talk of a small raise. I worked through the crash in 2014, and the 2020 disaster. I feel very fortunate. 

Same here.  Bonus was better than I expected because I expected a big fat zero and would not have complained.  Raise worked out to 2%; I'm going to try not to blow it all in one trip to HEB.

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2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

That's a repeat isn't it?  I remember reading the same article a few months ago.

Dated Feb ‘21. I had not read it.  I can’t stand it when journalists try and simply the industry in order to dumb it down for the average reader - even the average business reader. It almost makes the entire piece silly. 

She fucked up by being tied to an asset and seemingly willing to pay whatever for it. But hindsight is a cruel bitch, and there is no way to know if she could’ve won it by offering Chevron even 10% less in an all cash deal. And, she was caught up in the mother of all downturns with Covid. Still, I wish she had a better team of advisors. She should’ve continued to try and fortify her Permian position with a series of smaller acquisitions. Regardless, she may be okay, and I think the portrayal she receives is entirely unfair and the EFT anonymous Twitter group is tired and unfunny. 

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I saw the date and was perplexed because after reading the first five or six paragraphs I was sure I read the article before.  Maybe it was a sneak preview or something I read earlier. 

Buying Anadarko was a good move.  The price she paid and the deal with Uncle Warren paying pay day loan lender rates was a dereliction of duty.  She should have been shit canned just for that.  The reason they haven’t solidified their position with smaller acquisitions is because they have no money.  They were selling off the coffee makers in the break rooms to make payroll this time a year ago.

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw the date and was perplexed because after reading the first five or six paragraphs I was sure I read the article before.  Maybe it was a sneak preview or something I read earlier. 

Buying Anadarko was a good move.  The price she paid and the deal with Uncle Warren paying pay day loan lender rates was a dereliction of duty.  She should have been shit canned just for that.  The reason they haven’t solidified their position with smaller acquisitions is because they have no money.  They were selling off the coffee makers in the break rooms to make payroll this time a year ago.

I sent it to a buddy on 1/21/21 so it’s been out a few weeks at least. 

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2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw the date and was perplexed because after reading the first five or six paragraphs I was sure I read the article before.  Maybe it was a sneak preview or something I read earlier. 

Buying Anadarko was a good move.  The price she paid and the deal with Uncle Warren paying pay day loan lender rates was a dereliction of duty.  She should have been shit canned just for that.  The reason they haven’t solidified their position with smaller acquisitions is because they have no money.  They were selling off the coffee makers in the break rooms to make payroll this time a year ago.

It’s not dereliction of duty when your Board and shareholders approve it. Could just be that the Board is moronic. Point is, she’s not solely culpable. 

They had money, with Buffet help, for a $38B deal but couldn’t manage a few $1B-$5B deals?  

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18 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw the date and was perplexed because after reading the first five or six paragraphs I was sure I read the article before.  Maybe it was a sneak preview or something I read earlier. 

 

Same here I was thinking it was posted upthread or elsewhere a few weeks ago or so (when I orig read it).

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3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Oil traders obviously not liking the expectation that OPEC+ will be bringing some production back online starting next month. Ugly little losing streak the past 3 trading days. 

Well whose fucking fault is that Field Stormer?

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