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28 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

 

The X is one of the most unattractive vehicles on the road

This is what I don't get.  The S is a beautiful looking machine.  The X and the 3 look like dog shit.  I wouldn't want either one of those cars in my driveway and I don't know how the company who started out with such a beautiful design aesthetic fell off the cliff so quickly.

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The real heros of Tesla are Bernanke and Yellen and their crushing of yields. Without that a charlatan like Musk could never get enough cheap capital to get this off the ground, much less sustain it this long.

Why does every recall, death crash, shut down matter? Because interest rates are on the rise, the fed is decreasing its balance sheet instead of increasing, credit markets are slowly tightening up, and Tesla still needs to borrow billions, despite Musk insisting they do not. Every quarter they miss production numbers hugely. The order backlog is not there like it once was. Basically it looks more and more like they will go bankrupt, equity holders wiped out, etc. The inability to ramp up model 3 production is just the latest of their many problems. There have been so many lemon model 3s that even crazy  permabullTesla worshippers are starting to sense that the emperor has no clothes.

They have done some nice things to push the car makers forward, but in the end they will get ground up. I guess there's always this dream that AAPL or someone buys them, but why buy the stock now when you can just buy the bonds in a bankruptcy in a few years.

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1 hour ago, Robin Masters said:

The real heros of Tesla are Bernanke and Yellen and their crushing of yields. Without that a charlatan like Musk could never get enough cheap capital to get this off the ground, much less sustain it this long.

Why does every recall, death crash, shut down matter? Because interest rates are on the rise, the fed is decreasing its balance sheet instead of increasing, credit markets are slowly tightening up, and Tesla still needs to borrow billions, despite Musk insisting they do not. Every quarter they miss production numbers hugely. The order backlog is not there like it once was. Basically it looks more and more like they will go bankrupt, equity holders wiped out, etc. The inability to ramp up model 3 production is just the latest of their many problems. There have been so many lemon model 3s that even crazy  permabullTesla worshippers are starting to sense that the emperor has no clothes.

They have done some nice things to push the car makers forward, but in the end they will get ground up. I guess there's always this dream that AAPL or someone buys them, but why buy the stock now when you can just buy the bonds in a bankruptcy in a few years.

You could be right on some level, but the bold is just patently false.  If the numbers at the end of this year don't play out, then I'll revisit, but the order backlog IS there and most predict they will post a profit next quarter.  But regardless, posting a quarterly profit isn't the business model.  It's way more long term.  The Model 3 production ramp is actually tracking to be on schedule for original (2015?) predictions.  As for "lemon" Model 3s?  There have been a few with issues, but the VAST majority, mine included, are incredible.  By far the best car I have ever driven.  It is not close.

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1 hour ago, Smax said:

 

 

The X is one of the most unattractive vehicles on the road

It is somewhere above an Aztec but not much further. I didn’t say it was att attractive I said it was comfortable to drive.  You can lift it with the air ride so it has the same clearance as my Jeep. Without that, why would I buy a minivan? It’s actially bigger than my Jeep too. 

My point still stands, if I’m going to drop 100-120k on a car that is nearly ready for auto pilot then I’m going to wait until auto pilot is fully capable.

if I am in it for performance then spending 100-120k in an S would mean I’m going to look at other performance cars as well. Tesla might not beat out an Aston Martin for me. My dad still prefers his 911 over the S. 

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I love my model S. Not sure I would want the maintenance of the comparable lux performance cars. The significant reduction in moving parts, the cleanliness, the lack of gas and the off the line quickness are beyond compare. Even with 3G on mine the interface is better than any car I’ve driven and that includes newer models with Apple airplay. I don’t think the model S has a competitor all things considered.

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And btw a used model S in pristine condition sold by Tesla with low miles and significant remaining warranties can be had for half that sticker price cost.

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This is the big concern that I had stated on the old site and the big Tesla pumpers predictably brushed it off. Tesla is a company that runs on borrowing, not on the revenue generated by its products. You can only operate at a loss for so long. If Tesla goes bankrupt and folds up shop, how will those who bought the cars get the replacement parts? What will happen to the resale values of the vehicles? If resale value plummets, how many owners will be upside down on their car note? At some point, Tesla has to either restructure and go back to its luxury car roots or actually start producing reliable, economic vehicles for the general public. They have to do it real soon, too.

Personally, I think Musk has an absolute winner in SpaceX and wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's regression has some correlation with SpaceX's progression. Musk probably has too many irons in the fire, at this point, and he needs to start picking which ones he will smith and which ones he will toss to the scrap heap.

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More interesting twists - Tesla won't make the entry level Model 3 for a while, focusing on a new expensive Model 3:

 

 

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Provided Tesla goes belly up, which seems much more likely by the day (but still not certain), I wonder what will happen on the warranty end for consumers?

What made me think of this was a friend looking at a fisker karma and me asking him how he'd get such a rare bird serviced.

I suspect there are enough Teslas on the road that enough third party warranty companies might step in and offer something like what a dealership tries to sell you on in the finance room, so there'd be competition. This wasn't the case with Fisher: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1084484_orphaned-fisker-owners-offered-4k-year-service-contract-by-whom

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Belly up just means a reorg and equity is lost with debt holders becoming the new equity owners. Too much good for it to just disappear. Could be sold too but in that deal the buyer knows warranty fulfillment is a huge part of it.

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Weren't people sayin' that Apple would buy 'em by now?

Oh, also wasn't it just a lab for developing new battery tech? Have they innovated much on the battery tech?

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Paraphrasing...

 

Musk on Twitter - the media sucks, we should set up a crowd sourced ratings network for the media so we can identify who is producing poor / false journalism.

Twitter people - That wouldnt work.  Corporations would manipulate the ratings for their benefit.  The only organizations that would get ratings are those that say those things that corporations want them to say.  It wouldnt work, because powerful business interests would control it.

Musk on Twitter - Who do you think owns the press?

Twitter people - OMG HE MEANS THE JOOS!!

 

 

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8 hours ago, JimmyGlass said:

Paraphrasing...

 

Musk on Twitter - the media sucks, we should set up a crowd sourced ratings network for the media so we can identify who is producing poor / false journalism.

Twitter people - That wouldnt work.  Corporations would manipulate the ratings for their benefit.  The only organizations that would get ratings are those that say those things that corporations want them to say.  It wouldnt work, because powerful business interests would control it.

Musk on Twitter - Who do you think owns the press?

Twitter people - OMG HE MEANS THE JOOS!!

 

 

hah, so pretty much nothing controversial unless you want to slander Musk,

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Looks like a Tesla on autopilot plowed into an unoccupied police cruiser today. They need to disable that shit the second your hands leave the steering wheel. People are too fucking stupid to be trusted with technology that has proven it still has some considerable issues. Texting, jerking off, texting while jerking off....the future sounds great, but we ain't there yet.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-tesla-collision-20180529-story.html

Edited by Blotto

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"The Palo Alto-based automaker, led by Elon Musk, has said it repeatedly warns drivers to stay alert, keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicle at all times while using the Autopilot system.”

 

Seems to me a more deserving name is in order...

the Quasi-Autopilot system, or the Not so Auto Autopilot system.

They need to disable that POS before more people die.

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4 hours ago, Blotto said:

Looks like a Tesla on autopilot plowed into an unoccupied police cruiser today. They need to disable that shit the second your hands leave the steering wheel. People are too fucking stupid to be trusted with technology that has proven it still has some considerable issues. Texting, jerking off, texting while jerking off....the future sounds great, but we ain't there yet.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-tesla-collision-20180529-story.html

This actually makes me want one more.

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Not a Tesla fan, but the front page news online every time one crashes is stupid and overhyped. It’s not fully autonomous, so pretending like it is and hammering the headlines when someone isn’t paying attention and there is a wreck is a little much.

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18 hours ago, Doodaddy said:

"The Palo Alto-based automaker, led by Elon Musk, has said it repeatedly warns drivers to stay alert, keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicle at all times while using the Autopilot system.”

 

Seems to me a more deserving name is in order...

the Quasi-Autopilot system, or the Not so Auto Autopilot system.

They need to disable that POS before more people die.

maybe they just need to have an audio track that plays when you start to be distracted

As Jim Morrison said (Texas version)
"keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel, keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel,
Yeah, we're going to the Icehouse  ..... gonna have a real good time"

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22 hours ago, Blotto said:

Texting, jerking off, texting while jerking off....the future sounds great, but we ain't there yet.

 

Speak for yourself there, Corky.

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3 hours ago, Sidney Sherman said:

So the car stops quicker now? Wasn't there no brake marks on these autopilot crashes?

It's fucking amazing that we have made it this far when we have to deal with simpletons such as yourself.  Unless you are trolling.  In which case, fuck off.

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I give it 5 years minimum before full self driving is at a point where it is actually somewhat viable.  The tech may get there sooner, but having to account for the vast majority of other cars not being self-driving seems to be one of the biggest barriers, IMO.  One of my biggest questions is how the AI does with anticipation of events.  For instance, when I'm driving in a neighborhood, I see 2 kids in a yard.  I'm automatically on guard in case one of those idiots decides to bolt into the street, so I'm going 5mph slower than I probably would be if they weren't there.  How is AI gonna handle that?  Are we just hoping that the computer's reaction time is faster than mine in order to make up for the lack of anticipation?

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He must be more concerned with doing it his way, and being remembered as some sort of forced new-age Henry Ford.  As much as we dick on the resident automakers, thankfully none of them are this aggressive in rolling out autonomous driving.  Tesla’s level of quality is very amateur to be allowing this to be on the road.  It has an Auto Pilot feature, but then he’s on Twitter asking folks to not treat it as such.  He might as well be selling vapes or cell phones.

“Hey everyone, with the latest software update going live, we’ll hopefully kill fewer people!”

How long before the NTSB forces him to pull his cars off the roads?  When one of his cars kills a family?

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On 6/11/2018 at 9:57 AM, Biff Tannen said:

I give it 5 years minimum before full self driving is at a point where it is actually somewhat viable.  The tech may get there sooner, but having to account for the vast majority of other cars not being self-driving seems to be one of the biggest barriers, IMO.  One of my biggest questions is how the AI does with anticipation of events.

I think what is mostly likely is we might see autonomous driving car only zones like in downtown areas. If all of the cars on the same OS then there are fewer variables of the other vehicles.

You still have dipshits on foot though...

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I also don't know why Tesla is trying to do this on their own.

Focus on the cars and the batteries. Let Google/Waymo, Tesla (although they might be warming up with Waymo) figure it out and then license it.

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1 hour ago, freyguy said:

He must be more concerned with doing it his way, and being remembered as some sort of forced new-age Henry Ford.  As much as we dick on the resident automakers, thankfully none of them are this aggressive in rolling out autonomous driving.  Tesla’s level of quality is very amateur to be allowing this to be on the road.  It has an Auto Pilot feature, but then he’s on Twitter asking folks to not treat it as such.  He might as well be selling vapes or cell phones.

“Hey everyone, with the latest software update going live, we’ll hopefully kill fewer people!”

How long before the NTSB forces him to pull his cars off the roads?  When one of his cars kills a family?

You wouldn't pull the cars off the roads, just disable the autopilot software.  That's also a worst case scenario.  Autopilot is not meant to be used as "autopilot" and anyone with a functioning brain should know this.

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29 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You wouldn't pull the cars off the roads, just disable the autopilot software.  That's also a worst case scenario.  Autopilot is not meant to be used as "autopilot" and anyone with a functioning brain should know this.

Maybe if it’s not meant to be an autopilot they shouldn’t market it as “Autopilot” and take deposits for “full self-driving capability“...just a thought.

Edited by Auto Driller

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To be clear, I mean it is not meant to be a true autopilot RIGHT NOW.  It will get there.  So a deposit for full self driving is exactly that.  A deposit for when the tech is ready.

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Did they really hit it or did they store up a bunch of almost finished cars and then push them all out in one week like they have every other time they’ve celebrated a milestone?

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I've had a 3 reservation since 4/1/16 and just canceled it.  The "just bear with us" mantra was growing tiresome plus, I figured by the time I got the vehicle configured to my liking, it would end up waaaay over the "approachable electric vehicle" pricing that drew me in in the first place.

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And, FWIW, they process my refund to my debit card in 2 days, which was the complete opposite of all the horror stories I had read, so kudos there.

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4 hours ago, captained said:

I've had a 3 reservation since 4/1/16 and just canceled it.  The "just bear with us" mantra was growing tiresome plus, I figured by the time I got the vehicle configured to my liking, it would end up waaaay over the "approachable electric vehicle" pricing that drew me in in the first place.

I'm exactly where you are.  I've been seeing May-July as my date on the Tesla website for the past couple of months.

Got my configuration email last week and was stoked only to log in and see it might be another 3-5 months.  And they want another 2.5K, non-refundable, which to me means they're short on cash and also means the full US EV credit might not be there once I take delivery.

 

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10 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Did they really hit it or did they store up a bunch of almost finished cars and then push them all out in one week like they have every other time they’ve celebrated a milestone?

Yeah hitting it one week, to me, is a publicity stunt for the financial media. Let me know when they hit it for a quarter and can deliver the vehicles that people ordered, not just the high end models.

I'd like to see Tesla survive, but Elon seems to be auditioning for the Penn & Teller Fool Us show.

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22 hours ago, smoky said:

I'm exactly where you are.  I've been seeing May-July as my date on the Tesla website for the past couple of months.

Got my configuration email last week and was stoked only to log in and see it might be another 3-5 months.  And they want another 2.5K, non-refundable, which to me means they're short on cash and also means the full US EV credit might not be there once I take delivery.

 

Can you expand on the 3-5 months delay?  6-8 weeks is the normal delivery window after configuration for everyone on the Tesla forums.  Mine was just over 6 weeks in March.  The $2.5k is standard for all orders and has been since the first invites went out, as far as I know. 

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26 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Can you expand on the 3-5 months delay?  6-8 weeks is the normal delivery window after configuration for everyone on the Tesla forums.  Mine was just over 6 weeks in March.  The $2.5k is standard for all orders and has been since the first invites went out, as far as I know. 

From the Configuration page...

N9Bauea.png?1

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On 5/22/2018 at 10:38 AM, Biff Tannen said:

You could be right on some level, but the bold is just patently false.  If the numbers at the end of this year don't play out, then I'll revisit, but the order backlog IS there and most predict they will post a profit next quarter.  But regardless, posting a quarterly profit isn't the business model.  It's way more long term.  The Model 3 production ramp is actually tracking to be on schedule for original (2015?) predictions.  As for "lemon" Model 3s?  There have been a few with issues, but the VAST majority, mine included, are incredible.  By far the best car I have ever driven.  It is not close.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/financials?p=TSLA

Q1 Income was negative $710 million.

They have no competition. Government subsidies will run out. And they still have to make an actual profit.

Good cars though.

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On 5/22/2018 at 11:41 AM, troph said:

I love my model S. Not sure I would want the maintenance of the comparable lux performance cars. The significant reduction in moving parts, the cleanliness, the lack of gas and the off the line quickness are beyond compare. Even with 3G on mine the interface is better than any car I’ve driven and that includes newer models with Apple airplay. I don’t think the model S has a competitor all things considered.

Tough argument there.  Lots of other cars with better luxury interiors for the same price.  Nearly any performance car will perform better than the S for the same price or less.  Hell you can get an STI for 40k and basically match the performance (obviously not straight line speed).  If you want to pay a large premium for not using gas, and having a minimalist interior, I'd agree there is no competitor right now.  I personally don't want that in a car.  I'm in the less electronics the better crowd. NTTAWWT

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