To confirm that he's pulled away from the ledge to the staff, team, and those out there trying to lure him away.
Vegas, posters here, neutral observers all assume Texas is a top 5 team as the floor barring injuries based on what we know now. Beyond that, Texas could be the best roster in the country, and I don't see many naysayers offering up a challenge to that here, but that isn't a credible claim until we get to May 1.
Humans are terrible about speaking with certainty regarding the future, so you should doubt yourself plenty. We don't know shit about August right now. Sarkisian's potentially speaking to NFL teams and so are Ryan Day and Dan Lanning. Any one of those guys going pro could lead to elite roster upheaval that benefits the others or someone else swooping in.
More teams than OSU and Texas are worthy of examination. Each portal cycle is somewhat unprecedented in its own way. The spring window last year was kind of a nothing thing nationally. Maybe that's the same this time. Or maybe OSU is sitting there with $15M to commit and they decide they're going to blow it on 7 players at key spots from the other best teams in the country. Or Michigan or Oregon do that. Maybe Auburn goes bonkers again or SoCal does.
It's not a rebel thing to say that Texas could have the best roster in the country for 2025. It's a fan thing and that's fine. I hope that's the case as well, but there are a fuckton of variables here.
This thread reminds me of the duck illusion and some of Taleb's writing on asymmetry of information and also the problems with the asymmetry, in some instances, of risk/reward.
Regarding the duck, everything about the little guy looks calm on the surface as he swims by you. Meanwhile, he's working his ass off underneath the surface as he's paddling by to get from point a to point b.
Taleb's written quite a bit about how a lack of shared knowledge can still critically skew the perceptions of people within the same tribe or affiliation. That leads to wild surprises and division among the ranks, so addressing it proactively is often helpful. Sometimes it is unavoidable.
Similarly but on a different problem is the lack of credit populations provide to people or organizations who prevent disasters from occurring, and therefore there's also an incentive or reward problem. How many 9/11s have been avoided? How many forest fires avoided with preventive maintenance (this example has been part of the discussion long before the Cali tragedy lately, so no CR intended)? How much future damage at a global level is being mitigated by productive climate change prevention efforts today and how much future cost of money and life is that in future terms (again no CR)? We don't really know because they're non-outcomes, and therefore we often fall into the logic trap of thinking because something didn't happen, it was never at risk of happening in the first place.
What in the fuck does that have to do with this discussion? Well, some people have been working and donating their asses off over the past few days to prevent the collapse of the roster for 2025 for Texas. What do they get in exchange for that? Folks mocking concerns over NIL and the portal and speaking in certitude about the roster's future state against that of any college football alternative. Do not take where things sit for granted. The spring portal should be viewed as both enemy and opportunity on the horizon.