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2018 - Elections and Trends


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48 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Wow. Outpacing a presidential year in Travis would be huge for Dems. Do any conservative counties publish stats like this? Wonder how they are turning out. 

Impressive.  Just keep in mind that there are 7% more registered voters in Travis Co since 2016.

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1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Impressive.  Just keep in mind that there are 7% more registered voters in Travis Co since 2016.

lulz

You and RayDog are hilarious. Always bringing up any data point that supports your side whenever possible. The entire point of the comparisons is seeing if EV cannibalized election day voting.

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1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's useful information.  

No it's not. Nobody is analyzing the difference between 2016 and 2018 to compare voter turnout with respect to registered voters. We are looking at it to get a feel for election day turnout versus early voting. Therefore it's irrelevant.

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Just now, Huckleberry said:

No it's not. Nobody is analyzing the difference between 2016 and 2018 to compare voter turnout with respect to registered voters. We are looking at it to get a feel for election day turnout versus early voting. Therefore it's irrelevant.

Thank you for that.  I'd like to look at numbers and understand why they are different.  That is a useful data point for my purposes.  

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4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

holy crap.  we are swamping those numbers.

It's actually just a really different progression. 2016 was much higher in the early hours, but the bigger issue I've already seen is that this hourly graph doesn't match the 2016 tweets I posted.

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image.png

I'm thinking in 2016 they tweeted out actually cast ballot numbers versus their chart and 2018 reports which are voter check-ins, so there's a lag to casting a ballot? But it shouldn't be that big of a difference. You check in right before you vote, right? There's a line to check in then a much shorter line to vote.

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10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz

You and RayDog are hilarious. Always bringing up any data point that supports your side whenever possible. The entire point of the comparisons is seeing if EV cannibalized election day voting.

Did you miss the "outpacing a presidential year" I was responding to?

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.

Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind.  What the hell happened to you man?

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6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Man I guess thinking people might be interested in the EV from Cali or changes in registration in TX is just vicious partisanship in your mind.  What the hell happened to you man?

You seem defensive. It's not vicious partisanship, it's a bias in the information you post. Every time data comes in that is good news for Republicans (e.g., party ID among early voters), you post it. Every time data comes in that is good news for Democrats (e.g, increase in voter share for younger voters), you don't post it. Nobody is saying it's vicious partisanship, it's more actively searching for confirmation bias opportunities. A good analyst like you should be able to self-scout, so to speak, and recognize these behaviors. It's something everyone has to fight, so you really don't need to take it so personally.

Edited by Huckleberry
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16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, I didn't miss it. I was commenting on your overall posting behavior. No big deal, you definitely get a lot of credit for not just pulling numbers out of your ass like RayDog does.

I work off a spreedsheet based on established trends from 2012 to now. I am not pulling numbers out of my ass as you contend.

Once we have results I will compare them to my projections.

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6 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

Not sure if this got posted:
 

 

 

6 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Any comparison to 2016?

 

2 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

122,692 day of


475,999 EV

Based on those numbers, looks like Bexar is going to be a county where 2018 early voting affected election day turnout. They're on pace for about 100K election day votes.

Edited by Huckleberry
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