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2018 - Elections and Trends


atomheartbevo

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I would assume, with no check of historical info, that there will be a slowdown after lunch through the 3pm numbers and then another spike after that.

So when folks vote, the timer starts and they can’t vote again for 60 minutes right?  Or is it just based on the clock, and you can vote once per clock hour, like voting at 7:55am and then 8:09am?

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So when folks vote, the timer starts and they can’t vote again for 60 minutes right?  Or is it just based on the clock, and you can vote once per clock hour, like voting at 7:55am and then 8:09am?

Depends if they are dead or not.

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit. “So at least at one polling location, it turns out the machines WEREN’T PLUGGED IN. Lines appear to be moving again.”

Like, I want to believe old people are too dumb to check something like this, but given it's our state I'm not exactly giving them the benefit of the doubt.

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22 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Actually they like AOC and Crowley. They usually just certify the Dem nominee. This year, they decided to nominate Crowley before the Dem primary. That party needs to actually dissolve if it isn't going to have its own nominees. He isnt running, but couldnt get off the ballot without changing residence.

Anyway, he may get a few votes, but it won't be close.   AOC now benefits from straight Dem voters who don't know any candidates names. 

Also, she isnt campaigning now either.  Nor is the irrelevant GOP candidate. If Cuomo wasnt campaigning, you wouldnt even know there is an election here tomorrow. 

Crowley was actually on 2 ballot spots. People were making a big deal about Working Families, but he was also nominated by Women's Equality Party which I had never heard of.

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Following up on the Travis County numbers, looks like the county is averaging about 9,000 voters per hour, which would put the total Election Day turnout at around 108,000. In order to keep the same percentage of Election Day to early voters that the county had in 2016 it would need to have 108,833 voters today.

So in this single county it is looking like perhaps early voting did not cannibalize election day voting as theorized.

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Following up on the Travis County numbers, looks like the county is averaging about 9,000 voters per hour, which would put the total Election Day turnout at around 108,000. In order to keep the same percentage of Election Day to early voters that the county had in 2016 it would need to have 108,833 voters today.

So in this single county it is looking like perhaps early voting did not cannibalize election day voting as theorized.

I had the thought that the voting will taper off considerably between like 3 and 6 only to surge again until voting is closed. Does that historically jive?

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4 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

Reports all over Twitter from Atlanta and surrounding areas of much fewer voting machines than in the past, including one African-American precinct where they didn't have power cords for the voting machines. Come on, Kemp. 

Motherfuckers would still have a poll tax if it was up to them.

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Went back on the Travis County Clerk's Twitter page. Here are hourly comparisons to 2016 (they didn't tweet every hour in 2016):

Hour - 2016 - 2018

9:00am - 17,700 - 17,364
11:00am - 36,874 - 34,647
1:00pm - 51,000 - 53,749
 

Wow. Outpacing a presidential year in Travis would be huge for Dems. Do any conservative counties publish stats like this? Wonder how they are turning out. 

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7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Went back on the Travis County Clerk's Twitter page. Here are hourly comparisons to 2016 (they didn't tweet every hour in 2016):

Hour - 2016 - 2018

9:00am - 17,700 - 17,364
11:00am - 36,874 - 34,647
1:00pm - 51,000 - 53,749
 

Pretty incredible that we're outpacing 2016 at this point.

I couldn't find any hourly comparisons for 2014, but I found the totals:

Early Voting: 145,201

Election Day: 124,804

Total: 270,005

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