Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 88751]

2 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

You don't have a single outside of this thread and none over two weeks old.  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

So a fucking astroturfer,  great.

[Loco 3752]

just your normal cold/flu... totally normal

 

[sunset87 235]

This may have already been covered, but what are the prevailing thoughts on this exhibiting seasonality?  If it does, that might create some time to develop some vaccines and meds.

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

 

10 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

So what?

You said you post rarely.  The fact is you didn't post AT ALL* until this, now you're spamming us with really uninformed opinions.

*He did have 3 total posts in the 2 years prior to this thread...

Edited March 3, 2020 by hopkinsnhorns
correcting the record

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

 

You said you post rarely.  The fact is you didn't post AT ALL until this, not your spamming us with really uninformed opinions.

That is not a fact. Didn’t post in the last few weeks or something sure. 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

Just now, sunset87 said:

This may have already been covered, but what are the prevailing thoughts on this exhibiting seasonality?  If it does, that might create some time to develop some vaccines and meds.

The daily Peak Prosperity YouTube videos on this had a chart showing the growth rate in Southern Hemisphere vs. Northern Hemisphere.  It appears to be spreading much faster in the North, which suggests it will exhibit seasonality (like the Spanish Flu).  I can't recommend those videos enough for people that want a deep dive into the available data.

[alincoln 2344]

Arnold Classic in Columbus will not allow spectators.  My guess is that SXSW will ultimately be cancelled

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3827]

8 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

That is not a fact. Didn’t post in the last few weeks or something sure. 

Dude every post you've made is in your history. None before 2/21/2020. All in the thread.

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

Edited March 3, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[closetojumping 61996]

9 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

You don't have a single outside of this thread and none over two weeks old.  https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

 

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So a fucking astroturfer,  great.

Because you don’t agree with his posts , he’s a troll?  Are you going to claim he’s part of a Russian bot initiative next ? Get a fucking grip, you pussies. This guy isn’t doing anything but carrying his side of a position. Some of you fucks are so brittle it’s nauseating. 

[Trey3216 15298]

28 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

And I think in general my position is being misunderstood. I have an opinion that the ending outcome of this will not fall in the ‘bad’ realm. I’m basing that opinion on light research and following the situation and it’s for sure affected by intuition world view as well. I certainly accept I may be wrong.

Brisket did some back of the napkin math, ended up with some large numbers, which he clarified with an ‘if’, but then ended his post with a pretty emphatic statement that thing will be ‘bad’. 
 

I’m asking him if he strongly believes a number in those death ranges or is just taking some dramatic license?

typing at the same time. Your post above answered my question. Thanks for the clarity. 

Know what my intuition would be if you put it in NowThis’ ass???

[Loco 3752]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Because you don’t agree with his posts , he’s a troll?  Are you going to claim he’s part of a Russian bot initiative next ? Get a fucking grip, you pussies. This guy isn’t doing anything but carrying his side of a position. Some of you fucks are so brittle it’s nauseating. 

said the guy with his rant post... 

[akhornfan 4]

Meh. I stand corrected on posting here. Thought I had. But yes. You’re right. I created the same user name I’ve had for 20 years since hornfans and super early on this site in a plan to troll a coronavirus thread. Long game. 
 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3827]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Because you don’t agree with his posts , he’s a troll?  Are you going to claim he’s part of a Russian bot initiative next ? Get a fucking grip, you pussies. This guy isn’t doing anything but carrying his side of a position. Some of you fucks are so brittle it’s nauseating. 

With the shit show of last season it reminds me of the baseball trivia American GI's used in WWII to trip people up.

[alincoln 2344]

How long until spectators are banned from sporting events?

My guess is less than 10 days

[Brisketexan 103148]

13 minutes ago, sunset87 said:

This may have already been covered, but what are the prevailing thoughts on this exhibiting seasonality?  If it does, that might create some time to develop some vaccines and meds.

I don't know about it being a prevailing thought, but my wife's cousin -- PhD microbiologist -- said a couple of weeks ago that she expected this to go the seasonality route, and that the real slug of illness and death will be round 2 next fall.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3827]

3 minutes ago, alincoln said:

How long until spectators are banned from sporting events?

My guess is less than 10 days

The Arnold Classic is the biggest Columbus sporting event after tOSU football. Body builders and spectators from around the world attend.

Edited March 3, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 12928]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Either they have a financial interest that is being damaged, or they hate their families.  

Why not both?

[Thetexashammer 1062]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Because you don’t agree with his posts , he’s a troll?  Are you going to claim he’s part of a Russian bot initiative next ? Get a fucking grip, you pussies. This guy isn’t doing anything but carrying his side of a position. Some of you fucks are so brittle it’s nauseating. 

All dissenting posters must be destroyed. It's the modus operandi of a certain group of people.

[StruggleBus 3922]

12 minutes ago, alincoln said:

How long until spectators are banned from sporting events?

My guess is less than 10 days

Yep. Will be interesting to see how it hurts NBA games

[heso 2553]

9 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

The Arnold Classic is the biggest Columbus sporting event after tOSU football. Body builders and spectators from around the world attend.

Like 200,000 spectators. And it’s not just bodybuilding. They have weightlifting, grappling, fencing, cheerleading, more. I’ve had to addendums for work several times and would have wished for a coronavirus when I had to be there. 

[Helobious 9394]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

There have been some younger people dying, but yes, it's mostly olds. If you're under 40 the mortality rate has been .2%. And as far as I know there haven't been any children under 9 that have passed from it yet. 

Not just haven’t passed. There’s no record of anyone under 9 even getting it. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Yep. Will be interesting to see how it hurts NBA games

All I care about is that it's over before September. It's not a disaster until it fucks with football season.

[Goredho 17154]

28 minutes ago, Loco said:

just your normal cold/flu... totally normal

 

Pansy alarmist navy seals panicking for no good reason!  Do they understand what they are doing to the stock market?!

[heso 2553]

22 minutes ago, alincoln said:

How long until spectators are banned from sporting events?

My guess is less than 10 days

I said it up thread, but I’m gonna be so pissed if I’m not allowed onto Augusta National in a month. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by heso

[akhornfan 4]

Just now, Helobious said:

Not just haven’t passed. There’s no record of anyone under 9 even getting it. 

I think the WHO report out of China had some small number of young kids cases, but no deaths. Certainly no one that young outside of China though 

[HOOKEM4 4871]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

That won't work upside down so you'd have to stand up to use it and then the shit water is running down your leg. Might as well take a shower after every shit if this is what we're resorting to.

Wait, so people dont just shit in the shower?

[Helobious 9394]

For being a country that says we love capitalism, we sure don’t employ it in the right way. 
 

If I was supreme leader, I’d come out and say “the first company to develop & mass produce a proven effective vaccine for this never has to pay corporate taxes again”. Then let the race begin.

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I think the WHO report out of China had some small number of young kids cases, but no deaths. Certainly no one that young outside of China though 

Around ten known cases in children with no complications. Apparently SARS didn’t harm or infect children much either.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 12928]

1 minute ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Wait, so people dont just shit in the shower?

These days, I only do it when showering under a public waterfall, unless it’s my last shower at a hotel. Mashing it down the drain became exhausting. 

[Hate 20037]

I think the lesson for all of this is to never ever get in the way of a good Surly panic.

[Bruno Sardine 147]

1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/12-quarantined-kirkland-firefighters-showing-flu-like-symptoms

Twelve of 30 firefighters and police officers in Kirkland who have been quarantined after potential or direct exposure to the COVID-19 virus at the city's LifeCare facility are now showing "flu-like" symptoms, according to city of Kirkland officials.

The 30 all had been quarantined after they had responded to calls at the LifeCare Facility in the days before and during an outbreak of COVID-19 that was discovered at the center. At least five patients connected to the center have died and more remain sickened.

One firefighter has been released from quarantine after completing their 14-day period while 26 firefighters and three police officers remain.

"Twelve first responders are showing flu-like symptoms, and 19 have confirmed direct exposure," city officials said in a press release. "Most are in isolation or quarantine at home."

As we discuss this issue, some take the view that this virus has been circulating in our cities for weeks and most who contract it are simply asymptomatic or experience only minor symptoms. But here we have something of a control group, no? 

12 of 30 first responders are showing flu-like symptoms. How many will end up in the hospital? How many, if any, will die? Seems like an important bellwether of things to come. 

[Helobious 9394]

Just now, Bruno Sardine said:

As we discuss this issue, some take the view that this virus has been circulating in our cities for weeks and most who contract it are simply asymptomatic or experience only minor symptoms. But here we have something of a control group, no? 

12 of 30 first responders are showing flu-like symptoms. How many will end up in the hospital? How many, if any, will die? Seems like an important bellwether of things to come. 

I do wonder how the lung quality of a fire-fighter compares to the average American.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 12928]

9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I do wonder how the lung quality of a fire-fighter compares to the average American.

Most of them I’ve met were blow hards, so I’d say above average lung quality.

[Goredho 17154]

"The deaths of three more residents of a Kirkland nursing home were linked to the coronavirus disease on Tuesday, bringing the number of deaths to nine in Washington state, according to health officials.

Now at least eight residents of the home, the Life Care Center, have died, and their deaths are attributed to COVID-19, the disease caused by a new coronavirus known officially as SARS-CoV-2."

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/seventh-washington-state-residents-death-linked-to-coronavirus-disease/

Anyone know how a flu outbreak in an elder care facility would compare to what we are seeing in the Kirkland, WA facility with Coronavirus?

• 190 residents
• ~25 residents infected (13% of resident population)
• ~25 staff infected
• 8 deaths from the resident population (4% of total resident population, 32% of resident infected population) in less than a week

My ignorant reaction is that seems high because I have never heard of such numbers from a flu outbreak in an old-folks home, but I'm not in healthcare and wouldn't really know.  I realize that the overall health of residents (those still strong enough to live independently vs those that need skilled nursing) and quality of the staff, practices and procedures may make this individual facility an outlier.  I'm just curious if anyone who would be in a position to know has ever heard of such numbers from the flu?

[Bevo 13418]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Correct. I don't think there's any doubt that it's significantly more dangerous than the flu outside of children (might not be enough data on children yet). If I happen to contract it, at 36, I'll probably be nervous but it won't be the end of the world (probably).

Nope, not the end of the world. I will still be posting. Maybe drinking a beer. Chatting up your widowed wife...

Edited March 4, 2020 by Bevo

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

47 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Dude every post you've made is in your history. None before 2/21/2020. All in the thread.

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/237-akhornfan/content/&all_activity=1

Internet is spotty in Alaska, being so near to Vancouver and all. 

[closetojumping 61996]

42 minutes ago, Loco said:

said the guy with his rant post... 

If you thought was a rant, I’m fascinated that you’ve survived on this board as long as you have. I’m assuming you pulled out your hair and ate through your fingernails a long time ago. 

28 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

All dissenting posters must be destroyed. It's the modus operandi of a certain group of people.

I don’t get it. There’s a proclivity across the forums to try to mob new posters that do little more than either disagree with a subset of posters, come across as uninformed, or both. Someone actually trolling is a whole other thing than “oh no mommy, he disagrees with me!!!”. 

[WhatTheBuck 28574]

20 minutes ago, Helobious said:

For being a country that says we love capitalism, we sure don’t employ it in the right way. 
 

If I was supreme leader, I’d come out and say “the first company to develop & mass produce a proven effective vaccine for this never has to pay corporate taxes again”. Then let the race begin.

What makes you think they're paying corporate taxes as it is?

[triplehorn 2664]

1 hour ago, akhornfan said:

Whatever. I’ve been around forever. I just rarely post. None of what I’m saying it troll. Feel free to disagree. @triplehorn you may remember me from Portland like 10 years ago. 

Now that you mention it, I do remember your handle.  I thought you used to capitalize the AKH or something.  You recall which two venues Exes watched games in PDX during the Vince and Colt years ?  

[Bevo 13418]

1 hour ago, Txzen said:

Yes - it's different than flu, which outside of a droplet doesn't last long. The report that said it lasts >5d on surfaces was discussed a few pages ago and it's not really correct. While it's likely that surfaces can harbor some infectious material for a day or more, the  virulence drops logarithmically by day. You're far, far more likely to get it by being in close contact with someone infected.

Still, wash your hands. 

The first part of your statement is correct, but the second bolded part is an interesting subject. From one abstract:

Influenza A viruses result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of individuals worldwide each year. In this study, influenza A transmission in a graduate student office is simulated via long-range airborne, fomite, and close contact routes based on real data from more than 3500 person-to-person contacts and 127,000 surface touches obtained by video-camera. The long-range airborne, fomite and close contact routes contribute to 54.3%, 4.2% and 44.5% of influenza A infections, respectively. For the fomite route, 59.8%, 38.1% and 2.1% of viruses are transmitted to the hands of students from private surfaces around the infected students, the students themselves and other susceptible students, respectively. The intranasal dose via fomites of the students’ bodies, belongings, computers, desks, chairs and public facilities are 8.0%, 6.8%, 13.2%, 57.8%, 9.3% and 4.9%, respectively. The intranasal dose does not monotonously increase or decrease with the virus transfer rate between hands and surfaces. Mask wearing is much more useful than hand washing for control of influenza A in the tested office setting. Regular cleaning of high-touch surfaces, which can reduce the infection risk by 2.14%, is recommended and is much more efficient than hand-washing.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Bevo

[Asithappens 974]

42 minutes ago, Helobious said:

For being a country that says we love capitalism, we sure don’t employ it in the right way. 
 

If I was supreme leader, I’d come out and say “the first company to develop & mass produce a proven effective vaccine for this never has to pay corporate taxes again”. Then let the race begin.

Holy shit. That is fucked up beyond all constitutional recognition. 

I hope you're kidding.

[akhornfan 4]

10 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Now that you mention it, I do remember your handle.  I thought you used to capitalize the AKH or something.  You recall which two venues Exes watched games in PDX during the Vince and Colt years ?  

Yep. At whatever bar on burnside for basketball

 

11 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Now that you mention it, I do remember your handle.  I thought you used to capitalize the AKH or something.  You recall which two venues Exes watched games in PDX during the Vince and Colt years ?  

I don’t remember the name of the place for football, but east side out the 84 at 90th or so. Long time ago. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

49 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

All I care about is that it's over before September. It's not a disaster until it fucks with football season.

The virus won’t be what fucks up our football season.   Well, at least not the virus from China.  

[G650 13063]

26 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If you thought was a rant, I’m fascinated that you’ve survived on this board as long as you have. I’m assuming you pulled out your hair and ate through your fingernails a long time ago. 

I don’t get it. There’s a proclivity across the forums to try to mob new posters that do little more than either disagree with a subset of posters, come across as uninformed, or both. Someone actually trolling is a whole other thing than “oh no mommy, he disagrees with me!!!”. 

I want to know when coronavirus is going to gargle our balls man.

[atomheartbevo 88751]

45 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Around ten known cases in children with no complications. Apparently SARS didn’t harm or infect children much either.

So Logan’s Run for a slightly older crowd.   

[triplehorn 2664]

2 hours ago, Txzen said:

Yes - it's different than flu, which outside of a droplet doesn't last long. The report that said it lasts >5d on surfaces was discussed a few pages ago and it's not really correct. While it's likely that surfaces can harbor some infectious material for a day or more, the  virulence drops logarithmically by day. You're far, far more likely to get it by being in close contact with someone infected.

Still, wash your hands. 

Important distinctions by definition:

Infectivity: how quickly OR easily an organism is transmitted from one host to another.

Virulence:  the severity of illness an organism causes.

In the example of flu vs. Covid: with flu, comparatively  you become contagious very rapidly, but you still may not pass it on very easily (need more contacts to spread to one other).  With Covid, you can be infected but it takes longer to be contagious, though you may very easily transmit it with comparatively fewer other contacts.  So those are two variables that ultimately influence the R naught (R0) value.  The WHO officials are keying on the longer lag phase of Covid to be contagious as the point of intervention for containment, ie. the essential use of testing and contact tracing.

 

[triplehorn 2664]

12 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Yep. At whatever bar on burnside for basketball

 

I don’t remember the name of the place for football, but east side out the 84 at 90th or so. Long time ago. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Because you don’t agree with his posts , he’s a troll?  Are you going to claim he’s part of a Russian bot initiative next ? Get a fucking grip, you pussies. This guy isn’t doing anything but carrying his side of a position. Some of you fucks are so brittle it’s nauseating. 

Sorry, been on the internet too long - when somebody sets up an account, then doesn’t post for a few years, and then posts on a single topic with an odd position, my spidey sense tingles.   Saw this on Shaggy with supporters of various ex-coaches, have seen it numerous times on many other sites   

But going back to my previous comment where I mentioned a couple of people had a similar attitude, and maybe ak doesn’t hold all those views,  it’s just odd as fuck that there was a group not wanting to test here in the US, not wanting to screen international travelers, and not wanting to try and contain or at least slow this thing down, and trying to claim that this was no big deal   

And not referencing ak, but it just makes absolutely no sense why somebody with at least a little education and sense wouldn’t want to look at the scenarios, prepare and try and slow this down.  Taking on a fatalistic attitude and that we shouldn’t bother trying to slow it down  is either trolling just to troll, or dumb as fuck.   

It’s like there’s a wildfire down the road, and rather than doing a few simple things like cutting firebreaks and clearing underbrush near your house, you’re like “fuck it, if my house burns, it burns, don’t give a fuck!”

Sticking your fingers in your ears and praying everything will be okay makes no sense    That’s how we end up with the football and basketball coaching that we have.  

[MrBig 5101]

7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 The WHO officials are keying on the longer lag phase of Covid to be contagious as the point of intervention for containment, ie. the essential use of testing and contact tracing.

 

How accurate is the testing? Looks like there’s a real problem with the testing if the North Star Mall shopper in San Antonio can test negative twice, get released, and then test positive again. Any stats on the reliability of these tests within the margin of error?

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/ncaa-establishes-coronavirus-advisory-panel       

 

NCAA establishes coronavirus advisory panel

March 3, 2020 4:52pm

The NCAA has established a COVID-19 advisory panel of leading medical, public health and epidemiology experts from their respective fields of study and NCAA member schools to guide its response to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease.

NCAA Chief Medical Officer Dr. Brian Hainline will lead the group, which will include:

• Stephanie Chu, M.D. – Team physician, University of Colorado, Boulder; Member, NCAA Committee on Competitive Safeguards and Medical Aspects of Sports
• Carlos del Rio, M.D. – Chair, Hubert Department of Global Health at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health
• Colleen Kraft, M.D. – Associate chief medical officer, Emory University Hospital
• Vivek Murthy, M.D. – 19th Surgeon General of the United States; Member, NCAA Board of Governors
• Mike Rodriguez – Senior director, U.S. Tennis Association and U.S. Open Security
• William Schaffner, M.D. – Professor, Preventive Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center

College athlete liaisons will provide their perspective to the advisory panel. The liaisons include:

• Nicholas Clark – Coastal Carolina college athlete and Board of Governors Student-Athlete Engagement Committee chair
• Caroline Lee – Southeastern Louisiana college athlete; NCAA Division I Student-Athlete Advisory Committee member and Division I SAAC representative to the NCAA Committee on Competitive Safeguards and Medical Aspects of Sport
• Mary Northcutt – Carson-Newman college athlete; NCAA Division II Student-Athlete Advisory Committee member and Division II SAAC representative to the NCAA Committee on Competitive Safeguards and Medical Aspects of Sport
• Isaiah Swann – University of Texas at Dallas college athlete; NCAA Division III Student-Athlete Advisory Committee member and Division III SAAC representative to the NCAA Committee on Competitive Safeguards and Medical Aspects of Sport

“The NCAA is committed to conducting its championships and events in a safe and responsible manner,” said Donald Remy, NCAA chief operating officer. “Today we are planning to conduct our championships as planned, however, we are evaluating the COVID-19 situation daily and will make decisions accordingly.

“We are actively monitoring COVID-19 in the United States and will make recommendations on competition based on the evolving medical protocols established by the CDC, NIH and state and local authorities,” said Hainline. “We are in daily contact with the CDC and are advising leadership on the Association’s response to this outbreak.” 

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low for the general public right now. However, the potential for a future public health threat is very high within the U.S. and globally, the CDC says.

“Given the fluid situation, the advisory panel will meet regularly and provide valuable insight and expertise as the Association navigates this complicated public health challenge,” Hainline said.

“The NCAA will make decisions that are first and foremost reflective of medical best practices and keeps the health and safety of student-athletes, administrators and fans as the number one priority,” Remy said.

Media Contact

Stacey

Osburn

NCAA Director of Communications

NCAA

317-917-6117

   

Edited March 4, 2020 by BBQ2Bayou