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Markets still falling like whoa


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On 7/25/2018 at 10:20 AM, Wally Fairway said:

HMNY is back up above $20 at today's open, dropped to $13

(oh yeah, that is after yesterday's 1:250 reverse stock split. A death knell if ever there was one)

Back down to .90. That is impressive.

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48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Somebody talk an option newb out of buying some Nov or Dec VIX calls as partial hedge against some shit hitting the fan over rest of the year.  

Ah I see you also got access to RH options lol. Buying options on VIX is pure /r/wallstreetbets - you should definitely go for it lmao

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Somebody talk an option newb out of buying some Nov or Dec VIX calls as partial hedge against some shit hitting the fan over rest of the year.  

VIX? There be dragons. Your general market hedge is SPY, IWM, QQQ,  DIA, etc. 
And for what it's worth, if I had time to manage an options strategy I would stay on the house side and sell spreads for time premium for the rest of the year. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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I don't know what RH options are, but have been reading articles on hedging a portfolio with VIX.  I see nothing but downside market risk for rest of the year, but that is totally a stick the finger in the air sense. Which probably means everybody else should go long. 

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VIX options suck.  They consistently seem to underperform the actual swings in volatility.  I think it's because of the expectation that the VIX will always revert, and reasonably soon.  They just settle for cash, and the odds of being "in  the money" at settlement are often low, so it's just a different animal.

I would stick with SPX, SPY, etc.

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

VIX? There be dragons. Your general market hedge is SPY, IWM, QQQ,  DIA, etc. 
And for what it's worth, if I had time to manage an options strategy I would stay on the house side and sell spreads for time premium for the rest of the year. 

That is the most boring way of consistently making money. It's the options version of saying, "I play the stock market," when really you just dump everything into $VTI and a bond fund and come out ahead in the end.

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4 hours ago, Red Six said:

That is the most boring way of consistently making money. It's the options version of saying, "I play the stock market," when really you just dump everything into $VTI and a bond fund and come out ahead in the end.

This reminds me of my favorite quote from one of my favorite all-time memoirs, "Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People"

“I learned that there are people who love action and others who love money. The first group is called suckers, and the second is called professional gamblers, and it was a cinch which one I wanted to be.”

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Not sure what the point about time premium is:  (bull) debit spread is synthetic to (bull) credit spread with the same strikes and expiry.  If you're right and the underlying pops, I guess you can get away with letting the latter expire worthless to avoid extra fees, but other than that?

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19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not sure what the point about time premium is:  (bull) debit spread is synthetic to (bull) credit spread with the same strikes and expiry.  If you're right and the underlying pops, I guess you can get away with letting the latter expire worthless to avoid extra fees, but other than that?

Don't understimate the value of cash-in-hand.

What if liquidity dries up? What if your broker goes down at 2:45 p.m. on the day of expiry?

Also, even if your position moves where you want it, you will almost always leave at least couple cents on the table when you close out, i.e., you will rarely get the full value of the spread.

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Fair enough.

Regarding your final point -- I could have sworn my last broker allowed both legs of an in-the-money debit spread to just wash out at expiry (excluding the spread $ itself).  Notional value didn't matter re: account size.  Of course, there's still the pucker factor of worrying if the underlying might drop below the short leg, especially after normal trading hours.

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12 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Very remarkable considering that when it was just a personal computer company it was trading at option value.

When the first iPod came out, it was trading at $4.  I kick myself everyday for not buying the 2500 shares I was going to buy with my leftover scholarship/loan money my junior year of college.  That 10-11k investment would be worth $7.5mm today 

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10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

When the first iPod came out, it was trading at $4.  I kick myself everyday for not buying the 2500 shares I was going to buy with my leftover scholarship/loan money my junior year of college.  That 10-11k investment would be worth $7.5mm today 

ugh

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When the first iPod came out, it was trading at $4.  I kick myself everyday for not buying the 2500 shares I was going to buy with my leftover scholarship/loan money my junior year of college.  That 10-11k investment would be worth $7.5mm today 

Yep. Same with Amazon but I don't recall it being as close to failing as Apple was. Also, you probably would have sold it after you made 5x or 10x your money. Then you'd kick yourself for selling.
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26 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

HMNY down to .08 now.  

and remember that is after a reverse 1:250 stock split in late July - so the all-time high (which was around $38) is now $9,714.

If you own the stock you are already screwed, if you have a subscription my advice is to go to the movies ASAP because they can't last much longer

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13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

and remember that is after a reverse 1:250 stock split in late July - so the all-time high (which was around $38) is now $9,714.

If you own the stock you are already screwed, if you have a subscription my advice is to go to the movies ASAP because they can't last much longer

Yep.  It’s sad to watch folks on sites like StockTwits chasing this piece of shit with tons of retirement money.  

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Jesus Tapdancing on a titty.  StockTwits feed for HMNY is chock full of terrifyingly regarded people.  

Someone with the last name Rothschild bought 227 shares today and had to file a 13F (a whopping $15 worth) and folks were claiming how the Rothschilds were FOMO investing.   

 

I told one that they would have paid a fucking intern 5x their investment just to file the 13F paperwork for their “FOMO” investment.  And why the fuck are they afraid of $15?    These fucking people trading tens of dollars 

Edited by Trey3216
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On 8/6/2018 at 1:14 PM, Wally Fairway said:

and remember that is after a reverse 1:250 stock split in late July - so the all-time high (which was around $38) is now $9,714.

If you own the stock you are already screwed, if you have a subscription my advice is to go to the movies ASAP because they can't last much longer

my subscription expired today. good while it lasted

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27 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

That would suck.

 

If the cap is really sub 100k, how about a shaggy hostile takeover.  Is there any opportunity for serious lulz? 

I don’t think 8badmofo has time to come up with 100k given his full time job resurrecting that website...

Edited by SDG
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HMNY reported "earnings" today - a loss of $83.7 million on revenues of $74.2 million for the quarter, for loss per share of $132/share (better than $198/share the prior year)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moviepass-parent-company-reports-large-losses-stock-continues-plunge-2018-08-14

Notes -
 (1) EPS and other data reflects the 250:1 stock split this year.
 (2) HMNY is now trading at 4¢ ... down from a split adjusted 52 week high of $9,714/share

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5 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

HMNY reported "earnings" today - a loss of $83.7 million on revenues of $74.2 million for the quarter, for loss per share of $132/share (better than $198/share the prior year)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moviepass-parent-company-reports-large-losses-stock-continues-plunge-2018-08-14

Notes -
 (1) EPS and other data reflects the 250:1 stock split this year.
 (2) HMNY is now trading at 4¢ ... down from a split adjusted 52 week high of $9,714/share

i thought i was misreading the chart. that's madness.

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