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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls


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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

LSU has a fat stack in baseball. They are broke ass motherfuckers otherwise. Their bag game was always just okay. They aren’t keeping up in football and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. Bama had a great bag game. Now they still have the same bag game.  Price of poker has gone up. All good for us. 

Are they pushing all their chips to the center for Simmons, then? Or is my reading of that situation incorrect?

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Just now, tokamak said:

Are they pushing all their chips to the center for Simmons, then? Or is my reading of that situation incorrect?

We will see. My read on the Simmons situation is as follows:

1) He likes LSU the most. Don’t know why, maybe he needs extra toilet paper and thinks the degree will help or something. 

2) LSU will have to concentrate resources for a few high value targets, just like ATM did last cycle and probably this cycle (at best). 

3) Collins is good enough that other schools will force LSU’s hand, taking this recruitment into rare air for this cycle. 

4) Texas will only go so far for a single recruit. I see this recruitment exceeding UT’s ability to rationalize it being worth it. 

Don’t take my POV as gospel. People I respect think Texas has a much better shot. I just feel like I’ve seen the future on this one and I’m not dealing with a ton of unknowns on it. 

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1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

You’re probably right but the significant difference now is NIL. You can’t look at everything that happened in Louisiana before NIL through the same lens as before. 

LSU, as proven in recent past, will steal $ out of a child's mouth to pay for the football team. NIL or under the table is not an issue in Baton Rouge. LSU will beat any amount of $ thrown by any other program to get the player, dont doubt that for a second. We will have to match that $ and win the recruitment other ways(relationships, development, consistency, etc). 

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I know, but the pressure to stay in state on families still exists, and is still a real thing. And while I'm not entirely up to date on our NIL details, I'm not sure we've fundraised to close on as many elite guys as we did last year. I don't know, and we'll see. Like I said, I want to believe. 

I'm not buying the pressure to stay in state bit any more. Loyal to the soil? Bullshit. Loyal to the dollar and loyal to the place where you have the best chance of long term success after college, be that in the NFL or otherwise. Everything else being equal (conference affiliation, NIL, football development track, winning program), the opportunities and exposure at Texas dwarf that at LSU. 

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1 hour ago, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

Maybe this is wish-casting, but similarly to BlowU, I think LSU is in real danger of disappearing a-la Nebraska because of NIL.  

*edit - Not overnight, but over a period of 5-10 years.

LSU football was asleep in the 80s and 90s. That state produces to much talent. That talent is brainwashed more than any other single state in america to stay home and play for LSU. LSU has no problem doing anything to compete with NIL or under the table. That program is not going anywhere. They have 3 straight different coaches that have won a title. They might have some up and downs but will not be down more than 1-2 years in the foreseeable future. As someone who spend their childhood in Baton Rouge and has a lot of friends still there, you are wishful that Lsu will become irrelevant. They will take the gambling $, make up a new state tax, rob a cancer hospital but they will not let anyone out bid for a football player in state. 

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3 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm not buying the pressure to stay in state bit any more. Loyal to the soil? Bullshit. Loyal to the dollar and loyal to the place where you have the best chance of long term success after college, be that in the NFL or otherwise. Everything else being equal (conference affiliation, NIL, football development track, winning program), the opportunities and exposure at Texas dwarf that at LSU. 

True, but Louisiana is our most insular and angry state (well, them and Maine, but Black Bear Football isn't quite the same recruiting rival).

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Maybe this is wish-casting, but similarly to BlowU, I think LSU is in real danger of disappearing a-la Nebraska because of NIL.  
*edit - Not overnight, but over a period of 5-10 years.

LSU is one of the “cool” schools for this generation of high schoolers — they’ll be fine. Recruits have fresh memories of Joe Burrow dominating in ‘19 and their feeds are littered with Livvy Dunne on Tiktok.
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8 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm not buying the pressure to stay in state bit any more. Loyal to the soil? Bullshit. Loyal to the dollar and loyal to the place where you have the best chance of long term success after college, be that in the NFL or otherwise. Everything else being equal (conference affiliation, NIL, football development track, winning program), the opportunities and exposure at Texas dwarf that at LSU. 

Then you dont know the state of Louisiana. 

Im not saying you dont try to recruit the best bc there are a few that are gettable. If they care at all about education, did not spend their puberty years in the state, have ties to out of state programs, a few just want to get out of the state but by in large there is crazy "lsu, lsu" since they day they are born for everyone in that state. Even students of of other schools in that state (ULL, Tulane, ULM, etc) will cheer like crazy for Lsu. 

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6 minutes ago, TheContractor said:

LSU football was asleep in the 80s and 90s. That state produces to much talent. That talent is brainwashed more than any other single state in america to stay home and play for LSU. LSU has no problem doing anything to compete with NIL or under the table. That program is not going anywhere. They have 3 straight different coaches that have won a title. They might have some up and downs but will not be down more than 1-2 years in the foreseeable future. As someone who spend their childhood in Baton Rouge and has a lot of friends still there, you are wishful that Lsu will become irrelevant. They will take the gambling $, make up a new state tax, rob a cancer hospital but they will not let anyone out bid for a football player in state. 

You’re incorrect regarding their wherewithal with NIL. I just posted about it. I can’t tell if you’re being willfully ignorant, have me on ignore, or if you just see a post that need to respond to and that causes you to skip all of the other posts as your eyes roll into the back of your head while you pound the keyboard. 

They have access to the same kind of capital that they had during the bag game era. That isn’t close to being competitive overall on the NIL front, but it can be effective when concentrated on 1-3 high value targets. That’s it. And there isn’t a bunch of corporate help coming. They have Marucci in baseball, so they have an endless fountain of money for baseball, but that isn’t translating to anything else and probably won’t. 

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The last 3 LSU coaches won national titles, and 2 of them are basically special needs adults who are out of college football entirely. They will continue to be fine. Personally I think Brian Kelly is a really good coach (wish we hired him), and he’s likely to be very successful there, accent notwithstanding.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I want to believe on McKinley, but I'm from Missouri until he says something about us being #1 publicly. He's from LA, and we just don't go in and get 5 stars from there with any kind of regularity, much less at a position like DT. And before anyone says "Derek Williams" to me, that was a fucking street fight all the way down to the wire and it took significant fucking resources to get him here, and to keep him on campus. Fuck, to keep our whole roster intact. 

I very much X-Files Want To Believe on this, but until I see anything public that really seems strong, I have a hard time thinking we're bulling massive blue-chips out of LA in back to back classes. Granted, I'll admit to not being the most up to date on the McKinley recruitment. I'll tell you, though, having that kid commit this weekend would probably turn the head of Collin Simmons. 

I have been pleasantly surprised with our ability to get traction on recruitments within SEC borders so far. We have pulled some good players out of LA, MS, AL, FL, and GA so far in Sarks tenure. I think the selling point of our education versus the in state schools outside of maybe Georgia and Florida is overlooked and seems to resonate with a number of kids with good heads on their shoulders like Finkley, Baxter, Kirkland, etc. Obviously the NIL is a factor, the SEC wall of consciousness is gone, and we are one of the biggest brands in college sports. Why wouldn't a kid who is serious about their future take a hard look at us? When we top that 10 win mark, I think shit is going to go to another level. 

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20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

4) Texas will only go so far for a single recruit. I see this recruitment exceeding UT’s ability to rationalize it being worth it. 

I think there are ways to rationalize it and use pro players as the example of just how impactful an elite pass rusher like that is and how uncommon they are. Show the money how impactful Aiden Hutchinson was for Michigan, Von Miller in the super bowl, or even remind them how great Sergio Kindle was for us, etc etc. Make it seem like he's the Arch Manning of the defense....

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3 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

The last 3 LSU coaches won national titles, and 2 of them are basically special needs adults who are out of college football entirely. They will continue to be fine. Personally I think Brian Kelly is a really good coach (wish we hired him), and he’s likely to be very successful there, accent notwithstanding.

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1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think there are ways to rationalize it and use pro players as the example of just how impactful an elite pass rusher like that is and how uncommon they are. Show the money how impactful Aiden Hutchinson was for Michigan, Von Miller in the super bowl, etc etc. Make it seem like he's the Arch Manning of the defense....

You have to have really rich benefactors unwilling to lose during a feeding frenzy in order to go really big on specific players while also maintaining the discipline of building NIL for an entire roster, and in UT’s case, rosters. 

Will Texas have that in this cycle? I don’t know. Finding a guy or guys who will stave off absurd shit in free agency without any real ROI is a tough ask. We can talk championships, but smart business people didn’t acquire vast resources by throwing money at other people who treat them dismissively and may or may not produce on the intangible ledger, which is the only viable notion of any kind of ROI. 

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8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You’re incorrect regarding their wherewithal with NIL. I just posted about it. I can’t tell if you’re being willfully ignorant, have me on ignore, or if you just see a post that need to respond to and that causes you to skip all of the other posts as your eyes roll into the back of your head while you pound the keyboard. 

They have access to the same kind of capital that they had during the bag game era. That isn’t close to being competitive overall on the NIL front, but it can be effective when concentrated on 1-3 high value targets. That’s it. And there isn’t a bunch of corporate help coming. They have Marucci in baseball, so they have an endless fountain of money for baseball, but that isn’t translating to anything else and probably won’t. 

You are being willfully ignorant to my posts about their commitment to sports and Football and Baseball specifically. They will not get left behind because of $, they will get that from somewhere. You can disagree fine, but shut the f up with the other comments and/or put me on ignore. 

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8 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Personally I think Brian Kelly is a really good coach (wish we hired him)

Plus, he and DJ Durkin are the sole P5 members of the "raging assholes who killed (or at least manslaughtered) a college kid" club, who wouldn't want that around the program!

Edited by texifornia
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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You have to have really rich benefactors unwilling to lose during a feeding frenzy in order to go really big on specific players while also maintaining the discipline of building NIL for an entire roster, and in UT’s case, rosters. 

Will Texas have that in this cycle? I don’t know. Finding a guy or guys who will stave off absurd shit in free agency without any real ROI is a tough ask. We can talk championships, but smart business people didn’t acquire vast resources by throwing money at other people who treat them dismissively and may or may not produce on the intangible ledger, which is the only viable notion of any kind of ROI. 

I get that aspect but it is what it is, there are 1-2 guys a year similar to Simmons who as Gerry put it are must gets. Those types of players are the ones that get you from being really good team to a championship level team. OL and DL are so crucial to long term success. 

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3 minutes ago, TheContractor said:

You are being willfully ignorant to my posts about their commitment to sports and Football and Baseball specifically. They will not get left behind because of $, they will get that from somewhere. You can disagree fine, but shut the f up with the other comments and/or put me on ignore. 

I find your posts interesting, if sometimes clueless, so I won’t put you on ignore any time soon, I figure. 

I’ve told you how it is regarding the landscape and LSU’s part in it for NIL. Your position against that is unintentionally comical, but I’ve done what I can. 

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I find your posts interesting, if sometimes clueless, so I won’t put you on ignore any time soon, I figure. 

I’ve told you how it is regarding the landscape and LSU’s part in it for NIL. Your position against that is unintentionally comical, but I’ve done what I can. 

you are clueless about how lsu and the state view sports and football/baseball. ive told you about how it is and it seems you obtuse mind just wont get it. oh well, sometimes you just do what you can and move on. 

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3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I get that aspect but it is what it is, there are 1-2 guys a year similar to Simmons who as Gerry put it are must gets. Those types of players are the ones that get you from being really good team to a championship level team. OL and DL are so crucial to long term success. 

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but one of the guys you mentioned (Von Miller) also shows that even the most valuable players can't always be retained because resources are finite. Otherwise he wouldn't be in Buffalo. 

I think it makes perfect sense to not overspend on Simmons if it allows for us to grab other priorities like McKinley, Robinson, etc. We don't know any of the actual numbers on this board so we can't really make informed opinions, tbh. 

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3 minutes ago, TheContractor said:

You are being willfully ignorant to my posts about their commitment to sports and Football and Baseball specifically. They will not get left behind because of $, they will get that from somewhere. You can disagree fine, but shut the f up with the other comments and/or put me on ignore. 

You're willfully breezing past what he said and doing so spectacularly.  Why you're talking about Baseball in a football thread is also strange and seems like a limp dick attemp at distracting us from the point I was originally trying to make.  What he's saying is why I made my original comment.  

LSU will simply not have the same resources/benefactors as the Michigan's, Texas's, Georgia's, Miami's, etc. of the world to be able to win the longer term arms race.  Also - nobody is going to remember who the fuck Livvy Dunne is in 5 years.

31 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm not buying the pressure to stay in state bit any more. Loyal to the soil? Bullshit. Loyal to the dollar and loyal to the place where you have the best chance of long term success after college, be that in the NFL or otherwise. Everything else being equal (conference affiliation, NIL, football development track, winning program), the opportunities and exposure at Texas dwarf that at LSU. 

Correct.

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1 minute ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but one of the guys you mentioned (Von Miller) also shows that even the most valuable players can't always be retained because resources are finite. Otherwise he wouldn't be in Buffalo. 

I think it makes perfect sense to not overspend on Simmons if it allows for us to grab other priorities like McKinley, Robinson, etc. We don't know any of the actual numbers on this board so we can't really make informed opinions, tbh. 

Those guys play different positions than Simmons though. Simmons plays a premiere defensive position and that position is well compensated in the NFL. Von Miller was used as an example because of on field ability to change games and have huge impact. 


image.png.70a6bc8753ac2f7fac3e6d5809916043.png

From a January article, it makes sense that Aaron Donald is the top paid defense player at that time because he's likely a top 5 defensive player all time. But 2-5 are all elite edge/pass rusher types. It's a premium position like QB, that demands premium value IMO.

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2 minutes ago, GlenFromTheMailRoom said:

You're willfully breezing past what he said and doing so spectacularly.  Why you're talking about Baseball in a football thread is also strange and seems like a limp dick attemp at distracting us from the point I was originally trying to make.  What he's saying is why I made my original comment.  

LSU will simply not have the same resources/benefactors as the Michigan's, Texas's, Georgia's, Miami's, etc. of the world to be able to win the longer term arms race.  Also - nobody is going to remember who the fuck Livvy Dunne is in 5 years.

Correct.

A. bc those are 2 sports lsu care most about 

b. Lsu is willing to do what ever for those 2 sports even without you perceived resource deficits vs schools like UGA/miami. Texas might have more resources but we have not shown to do anything to succeed. Lsu has and will . you also dont seem to understand that and thats fun, close your eyes and mind to it.

c. i never mentioned Livvy

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18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I find your posts interesting, if sometimes clueless, so I won’t put you on ignore any time soon, I figure. 

I’ve told you how it is regarding the landscape and LSU’s part in it for NIL. Your position against that is unintentionally comical, but I’ve done what I can. 

I find this response surprisingly mellow from our resident insider and verbal assassin.  Let's see how long this lasts....

Edited by TheAuditor
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Just now, Bodacious Bevo said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but one of the guys you mentioned (Von Miller) also shows that even the most valuable players can't always be retained because resources are finite. Otherwise he wouldn't be in Buffalo. 

I think it makes perfect sense to not overspend on Simmons if it allows for us to grab other priorities like McKinley, Robinson, etc. We don't know any of the actual numbers on this board so we can't really make informed opinions, tbh. 

I just think College Football is different, than the NFL. 1 edge rusher can put you over the top in the NFL. You can spend your money, win a Super Bowl, and then fall back into mediocrity. You can not do that in College football. To get playoff caliber players, you need to be consistently good. An edge guy can take 2-3 years to develop and you have a hole in the roster at the same time he emerges, because you just blew your wad on 1 player. Keep in mind that in college you can not lock up a guy for 4-5 years in their prime. You are likely to get 2 years at the most of high level production. If you try to buy a single class, you will end up like Lakers. You will have some quality pieces, but no depth to get through the season. 

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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Those guys play different positions than Simmons though. Simmons plays a premiere defensive position and that position is well compensated in the NFL. Von Miller was used as an example because of on field ability to change games and have huge impact. 


image.png.70a6bc8753ac2f7fac3e6d5809916043.png

From a January article, it makes sense that Aaron Donald is the top paid defense player at that time because he's likely a top 5 defensive player all time. But 2-5 are all elite edge/pass rusher types. It's a premium position like QB, that demands premium value IMO.

Do you realize this hurts your argument? Only 1 of these guys has won a Super Bowl. 3 of them were hanging out at the beach during the playoffs this year. 

Edited by Codaxx
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2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Do you realize this hurts your argument? Only 1 of these guys has won a Super Bowl. 3 of them were hanging out at the beach during the playoffs. 

My argument is that it's a premium position and should be treated as such when it comes to NIL. The NFL salary data only confirms this with the contracts given to elite pass rushers.

 

Von Miller was used literally as an example because he was a super bowl MVP from the position and if you're looking for examples of impact that position can have to show to big donors he's a good example to use because of that.

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25 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You have to have really rich benefactors unwilling to lose during a feeding frenzy in order to go really big on specific players while also maintaining the discipline of building NIL for an entire roster, and in UT’s case, rosters. 

Will Texas have that in this cycle? I don’t know. Finding a guy or guys who will stave off absurd shit in free agency without any real ROI is a tough ask. We can talk championships, but smart business people didn’t acquire vast resources by throwing money at other people who treat them dismissively and may or may not produce on the intangible ledger, which is the only viable notion of any kind of ROI. 

I've always agreed with that premise and that's why I suspected NIL will cool down in the medium to long term some. Never underestimate a rich guys ego, of course, but there just isn't much of an ROI on that.  

This last bill changes that equation some though, doesn't it?  You now get your LHF points and access for donations to Texas One fund, correct?  Might a guy who otherwise gives Mid 6 or low 7 figures for access to the program decide to roll that into one special player occasionally?  That seems... within the realm of possibility?  The LHF points for Texas one should be a game changer for the average Joe and basically all their monies should go there if they, you know, like a winning product.  But, I could also see it causing a high donor guy to come into the NIL game too if I squint a bit and look at the right angle. 

Do you think the notion of ROI changes at all with this bill?  Or am I being too optimisitc?

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8 minutes ago, TheContractor said:

b. Lsu is willing to do what ever for those 2 sports even without you perceived resource deficits vs schools like UGA/miami. Texas might have more resources but we have not shown to do anything to succeed. Lsu has and will . you also dont seem to understand that and thats fun, close your eyes and mind to it.

You're just going to repeat this, huh. 

The platitudes are silly. If you have a firm conviction that LSU will do anything to keep up in NIL, that's fine. If you want others to adopt your position, please explain. They care a lot, they've done everything before, and they'll do anything again ain't it. 

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5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My argument is that it's a premium position and should be treated as such when it comes to NIL. The NFL salary data only confirms this with the contracts given to elite pass rushers.

 

Von Miller was used literally as an example because he was a super bowl MVP from the position and if you're looking for examples of impact that position can have to show to big donors he's a good example to use because of that.

It also shows that paying up for a pass rusher is no guarantee of fielding Championship team. 

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17 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

They weren't close to being the recruit Calhoun is

That wasn't the parameters of the statement.  The statement was:

Quote

Texas has never taken a kid from Atlanta from the likes of Bama, Tenn, and Georgia. 

 

Regardless, I'd argue that all 3 of them being 4* recruits with offers from most every power in the nation makes them fairly close, at the very least.

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3 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I just think College Football is different, than the NFL. 1 edge rusher can put you over the top in the NFL. You can spend your money, win a Super Bowl, and then fall back into mediocrity. You can not do that in College football. To get playoff caliber players, you need to be consistently good. An edge guy can take 2-3 years to develop and you have a hole in the roster at the same time he emerges, because you just blew your wad on 1 player. Keep in mind that in college you can not lock up a guy for 4-5 years in their prime. You are likely to get 2 years at the most of high level production. If you try to buy a single class, you will end up like Lakers. You will have some quality pieces, but no depth to get through the season. 

I think we agree here. I'm saying Simmons is great but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. 

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My argument is that it's a premium position and should be treated as such when it comes to NIL. Von Miller was used literally as an example because he was a super bowl MVP from the position. 

I know the other guys I mentioned are at other positions. That's why their individual value is lower but collectively it could be higher. 

Von is great but the point is he was a super bowl MVP and eventually still let go because of the contract he wanted. And Simmons, no matter how highly ranked, still has like a 33% chance of busting in college. He isn't a known quantity in the same way an NFL vet is. 

 

More generally, equifinality reigns. A place like Texas shouldn't get locked into a position of "oh we have to do X in order to succeed." There are many paths to a championship available to us. Let's not overextend ourselves on a single one. That's how you end up in aggy's situation. 

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College football has changed and society has changed. Kids are going to go to a school that takes care of them immediately and in the future. In general, kids won’t go to Tulane no matter what they offer if they feel that it can hinder their ability to get into the league. But when comparing schools that have equal ability to get them to the league, money will most often be the primary deciding factor. Kids in general aren’t going to a school because it is the state school. They are going because the school will take care of them. Now if the money is roughly equivalent then proximity to home, love for the state, love for the program and other family considerations come into play. There will always be exceptions, but this is the general rule.

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Just now, Mittens said:

That wasn't the parameters of the statement.  The statement was:

 

Regardless, I'd argue that all 3 of them being 4* recruits with offers from most every power in the nation makes them fairly close, at the very least.

Who were the teams hot after Watson? 

Calhoun has those 3 teams vying to land him and putting a lot of pressure to land him.

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8 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I think we agree here. I'm saying Simmons is great but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. 

I know the other guys I mentioned are at other positions. That's why their individual value is lower but collectively it could be higher. 

Von is great but the point is he was a super bowl MVP and eventually still let go because of the contract he wanted. And Simmons, no matter how highly ranked, still has like a 33% chance of busting in college. He isn't a known quantity in the same way an NFL vet is. 

 

More generally, equifinality reigns. A place like Texas shouldn't get locked into a position of "oh we have to do X in order to succeed." There are many paths to a championship available to us. Let's not overextend ourselves on a single one. That's how you end up in aggy's situation. 

I disagree....there are certain players each year that you 100% say you need to have him to get to the next level.  And pretty much every national champion from the past decade has had elite pass rushers. 

 

Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Ohio St, LSU all had elite pass rushers in their title runs. In modern football with the offenses now it is more important than ever to get to the QB and get sacks to put teams behind the sticks. 

 

We had a ton of pressures last year but not many sacks, fix the lack of sacks by adding players like Simmons/Hill/etc. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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1 minute ago, texifornia said:

I assume she's talking about the fullcourt family press

 

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Maybe the angle we are trying to take is to bring Gipson and Johnson Rubell's moms together and let them catch up and see that they're a drive away from watching Texas games together and etc. That would be a good tactic IMO.

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Does LSU blowing its load on Simmons mean we have a better shot than expected with other LA prospects, like McKinley and Mack? It seems like it should, but I'm completely ignorant about this sort of thing. 

Pulling McKinley would really take the sting out of losing Simmons. 

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IMO predicting the future of NIL contributions by each school is nearly impossible. One billionaire with an ego can fund it all, like Knight. Or, a massive rabid fan base could dump their overtime checks from the plastics factory into a fund.

The only information that’s useful is what’s happening right now in the current class of recruits. How much money is showing up to the table and how is it being spread or concentrated. I’m surprised Oregon isn’t yet on track to buy the top rated class this year.  

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3 minutes ago, ATXhorn17 said:


Is she trying to accuse Sark of passing out ‘roids, evangelizing, and money laundering through local churches?

I mean, is there a football player in college or the NFL that isn't taking steroids? I assume that everyone is at this point. Am I wrong?

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  • texifornia changed the title to Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

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