Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

[Codaxx 5552]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

but it is inconceivable that someone actually believes the 3 of the top 4 players are WRs. 247 has 7 WRs in the top 21 players in the state. That is just fvckin stupid. 

I had to look at the industry after this. 

Blue Chip recruits (4/5 stars) on offense (214 total) by position:

QB: 28 (13.1%) (2 5 stars)
RB: 33 (15.4%) (0 5 stars)

WR: 72 (33.6%) (6 5 stars)

TE: 26 (12.1%) ) (1 5 star)

OT: 27 (12.6%) (1 5 star)

IOL: 28 (13.1%) (0 5 stars)

There are 214 offensive players ranked at Blue Chips, 33.6% are WRs (60% of the 5 stars with 6 of 10). The next highest is RB at 15.4% (33). The entire OL is 25.7%.. No matter what personnel group you consider to be the standard in college, the OL represents 45.5% of the players on the field (5/11).. OL seems laughably low. WR is just insane. TE is surprising. RB is too high also. 

 

 

Defense isnt as bad. 192 Blue chips

Edge: 28 (14.6%. 2 5 stars)

DL: 39 (20.3%, 5 5 stars)

LB: 44 (22.9%. 2 5 stars... this seems high)

CB: 46 (24%, 3 5 stars)
S: 34 (18.2%, 1 5 star)

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Codaxx

[Mr. Drummond 2180]

OLine is really really tough to measure and project at 16-17 years old.   But tall and fast is easy.    

[Texasrocks 2124]

6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I had to look at the industry after this. 

Blue Chip recruits (4/5 stars) on offense (214 total) by position:

QB: 28 (13.1%) (2 5 stars)
RB: 33 (15.4%) (0 5 stars)

WR: 72 (33.6%) (6 5 stars)

TE: 26 (12.1%) ) (1 5 star)

OT: 27 (12.6%) (1 5 star)

IOL: 28 (13.1%) (0 5 stars)

There are 214 offensive players ranked at Blue Chips, 33.6% are WRs (60% of the 5 stars with 6 of 10). The next highest is RB at 15.4% (33). The entire OL is 25.7%.. No matter what personnel group you consider to be the standard in college, the OL represents 45.5% of the players on the field (5/11).. OL seems laughably low. WR is just insane. TE is surprising. RB is too high also. 

Defense isnt as bad. 192 Blue chips

Edge: 28 (14.6%. 2 5 stars)

DL: 39 (20.3%, 5 5 stars)

LB: 44 (22.9%. 2 5 stars... this seems high)

CB: 46 (24%, 3 5 stars)
S: 34 (18.2%, 1 5 star)

I wouldn't read too much into the distribution. Stars are a prediction so you'd expect positions that are easier to project (WR, RB) to be over-represented. There's also some natural variability from year to year. This is a down year for Texas OL, so that may be the case overall. That said, while I know there is a strong correlation between star rating and draft status, I'd be curious what the numbers look like by position. 

[irishtexan 11435]

Regardless, WRs are overvalued

[Codaxx 5552]

 

11 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

I wouldn't read too much into the distribution. Stars are a prediction so you'd expect positions that are easier to project (WR, RB) to be over-represented. There's also some natural variability from year to year. This is a down year for Texas OL, so that may be the case overall. That said, while I know there is a strong correlation between star rating and draft status, I'd be curious what the numbers look like by position. 

This was national. That was my point, the ranking agencies are lazy. QB being over-rated makes sense, the NFL draft is evidence for that. WR/TE combo just seems way off to me. Seems 7 on 7 is the key to being over-rated on offense. Keep in mind the defense does not show the same bias. Correlation by position would be very interesting. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Codaxx

[Pato del Muerto 52232]

6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

 

This was national. That was my point, the ranking agencies are lazy. QB being over-rated makes sense, the NFL draft is evidence for that. WR/TE combo just seems way off to me. Seems 7 on 7 is the key to being over-rated on offense. Keep in mind the defense does not show the same bias. Correlation by position would be very interesting. 

I don’t watch 7v7 but doesn’t the offense usually outperform the defense in that format?  Wrs and qbs probably look the best in such formats and skills comps. 

[Getafix 28365]

 

Hola, degenerates.  I've cut out the " ...lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-yous .." BS and all the caveats from the Horns 247 Stampede, and distilled it to the essence - who they think leads, or will be the pick.  Trying to keep their predictions straight in my own head, and yours.  

 

The Stampede (Horns 247): The Non-BS Version

 

Corian Gipson: Texas

"it’s hard not to like where Texas stands." (Hank South)

Aeryn Hampton: Texas

"points to Hampton pledging to the Burnt Orange once again come July 7 " (Jordan Scruggs)

 

Malik Blocton: Auburn

"we’re still in the camp of that (Getafix: Auburn heavy favorites) likely being the case .." (Hank South).

 

Jordan Washington:  Texas

"remain confident in my Crystal Ball prediction in favor of Texas to land Washington." (Jordan Scruggs)

Wardell Mack: LSU

"One source ... Longhorns are the favorite ... Obviously LSU is going to factor in here heavy, and Mack has a return trip scheduled to Florida later this month" (Hank South)

Brandon Baker:  Texas/Ohio State toss up

"It’s too close to call at this point" (Hank South)

 

Jayden Jackson: Texas

"the Longhorns appear to be in pole position talking to sources" (Hank South)

 

Quick hitters

 

Daniel Calhoun: Georgia

"Georgia is trending" (Hank South)

 

Nyier Daniels: Georgia

"UGA is the likely landing spot ahead of a Friday announcement." (Hank South)

 

TJ Lindsey: Texas A&M

"Texas A&M is trending on the Crystal Ball "(Hank South)

 

 

[BERT 4324]

32 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

 

This was national. That was my point, the ranking agencies are lazy. QB being over-rated makes sense, the NFL draft is evidence for that. WR/TE combo just seems way off to me. Seems 7 on 7 is the key to being over-rated on offense. Keep in mind the defense does not show the same bias. Correlation by position would be very interesting. 

So when do we get the Codaxx top 100? 

[Codaxx 5552]

2 minutes ago, BERT said:

So when do we get the Codaxx top 100? 

When doing that pays more than my day job. 

[BERT 4324]

1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

When doing that pays more than my day job. 

Fair enough

[cochamps 1875]

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

When doing that pays more than my day job. 

6 Figs not enough???   😉

[Jabberwocky 1666]

 

[TommyGufano 6021]

2 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

Unclear to me what the pecking order is on the interior DL, but I'd like this kid to be a part of the group we take

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

DL picture should be clear in a few weeks.  Lindsey, Jackson, Robinson, Hills, and Blocton all expected to decide in the coming weeks.  McKinley obviously has a spot no matter what.

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

6 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

$9.95ers don't know anything on this recruitment.  He doesn't have a pick to anybody on 247, Rivals, or On3.

 

[Codaxx 5552]

22 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

Unclear to me what the pecking order is on the interior DL, but I'd like this kid to be a part of the group we take

Going off memory, but I believe Gerry had the top 4 at McKinley, Robinson, Jackson, and January. He was adamant that all 7 of them would be quality takes for Texas. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Codaxx

[HenryJames 65848]

22 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

$9.95ers don't know anything on this recruitment.  He doesn't have a pick to anybody on 247, Rivals, or On3.

 

Some do.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20332]

Imagine being Malik Blocton and having to choose between Austin, the capital of Texas and increasingly a world city with a huge stage, and Auburn, Alabama.  Having a whole subgroup of my kinfolk in/around Auburn, it's just not a place I'd want to spend years of my life --- and that's being polite. 

[Leanderman 2256]

"When doing that pays more than my day job. "

So in other words, just like visiting South Austins mom?

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

58 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Imagine being Malik Blocton and having to choose between Austin, the capital of Texas and increasingly a world city with a huge stage, and Auburn, Alabama.  Having a whole subgroup of my kinfolk in/around Auburn, it's just not a place I'd want to spend years of my life --- and that's being polite. 

[Getafix 28365]

 

A data point on the Gipson recruitment.  In a "curious incident of the dog in the night-time" vein.

 

- For a while, the 247 analysts thought Clemson led.  After his Clemson visit (early June), Roach had joined their mods in CBs, and put in a 7 CB (a rarity for him).

- After the Texas visit (6/23), their mods had promised but held off on an update ... until this AM.  Their mod's update was simply a link to the Texas Stampede update above, in which Hank South said he liked where Texas stood.  No other comments from their mods.

 

Nothing conclusive, but positive for Texas.  We'll see.

 

 

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1258]

1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Imagine being Malik Blocton and having to choose between Austin, the capital of Texas and increasingly a world city with a huge stage, and Auburn, Alabama.  Having a whole subgroup of my kinfolk in/around Auburn, it's just not a place I'd want to spend years of my life --- and that's being polite. 

"This is not a place I'd want to spend years of my life" is Alabama talk for "You're my sibling/cousin and still, I'm just not that into you."

Edited July 3, 2023 by TheRealRonWeaver?

[MichaelDicksonFanClub 2861]

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

Florida mod talking mostly about Robinson and a little on Jackson.

 

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

Robinson's offer list doesn't match his 247 rating of a mid-3*.

[Getafix 28365]

5 minutes ago, MichaelDicksonFanClub said:

 

 

Note - regarding the Keith Niebuhr crystal ball ... 

 

 

 

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

So errrrbody on the DL then?  They aren't going to turn down Lindsey and McKinley.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Elmer_Fudd

[Vertigo 20225]

That is a promising turn of events on both Robinson and Jackson. Those two to potentially pair with January would really give us a solid crew to work with in terms of depth and size. 

[RollingPresidential 632]

4 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

So errrrbody on the DL then?  They aren't going to turn down Lindsey and McKinley.

That was the original errrrbody in 2016. Didn't turn out well. 

[Bigbend1812 12873]

[Getafix 28365]

 

Hank South (Horns 247), on D'Antre Robinson.

 

 

 

[cafe society 2833]

1 minute ago, RollingPresidential said:

That was the original errrrbody in 2016. Didn't turn out well. 

Completely different staff/evaluators

[RollingPresidential 632]

3 minutes ago, cafe society said:

Completely different staff/evaluators

Oh yes, no doubt. Just remembering that happy time (after that fucking miserable season). 

[BornAndRaised 12216]

I really appreciate how the roster is shaping up under Sark. 

They saw OL as an issue, they went big game hunting, signed the highest ranked OL in the country.
They saw LB as an issue, they went big game hunting, signed a major class.
Now they want SEC bodies on the DL and they're not afraid to go for their guys, not just stars. 

Loving it.

[cafe society 2833]

1 minute ago, BornAndRaised said:

I really appreciate how the roster is shaping up under Sark. 

They saw OL as an issue, they went big game hunting, signed the highest ranked OL in the country.
They saw LB as an issue, they went big game hunting, signed a major class.
Now they want SEC bodies on the DL and they're not afraid to go for their guys, not just stars. 

Loving it.

Aggy thinks we don't know what we're in for in the SEC.  Staff full of SEC and NFL coaching vets understand perfectly what awaits us and is swiftly preparing us to be a predator, not prey.

[MichaelDicksonFanClub 2861]

42 minutes ago, MichaelDicksonFanClub said:

Moar, Langston is an FSU guy I believe

[BurntOrange&White 39268]

38 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Robinson's offer list doesn't match his 247 rating of a mid-3*.

Neither does his OV list:

 

 

Jayden Jackson OV list:

 

Alex January:

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[BigHorn'13 3352]

So will any of these guys be in line for some bumps in ratings? It doesn't matter much in the end in terms of productivity (assuming the staff's evals are right) but it unfortunately matters on overall team rankings. 

[Sejjr 3246]

16 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

[Duane Moore 5236]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Neither does his OV list:

 

 

 

That’s crazy. You can’t get a better OV list than that. Is he just one of those really raw Florida kids that Gerry talks about?  If you are doing recruiting rankings for a service and see an OV schedule like that, maybe it’s time to take a second look at your evaluation. 

[closetojumping 62033]

Blocton to Texas, Robinson to Texas, Hills to Texas, that’s 4 interior DL including January. So you’re left waiting for McKinley and if you get him, trying to hang on to all 5 through signing day. 

Given the buzz on these guys to Texas, the Arkansas guy and Jackson become mysteries. One of those posters in the screenshots alluded to Jackson announcing tomorrow but we haven’t heard that, have we?

[Duane Moore 5236]

1 minute ago, Sejjr said:

AI will be the ruination of us all. 

[Duane Moore 5236]

Just now, closetojumping said:

Blocton to Texas, Robinson to Texas, Hills to Texas, that’s 4 interior DL including January. So you’re left waiting for McKinley and if you get him, trying to hang on to all 5 through signing day. 

Given the buzz on these guys to Texas, the Arkansas guy and Jackson become mysteries. One of those posters in the screenshots alluded to Jackson announcing tomorrow but we haven’t heard that, have we?

When did we become the leader on Blocton? certainly not angry about it, just IIRC you had him going to Auburn on your last update. 

[cochamps 1875]

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Blocton to Texas, Robinson to Texas, Hills to Texas, that’s 4 interior DL including January. So you’re left waiting for McKinley and if you get him, trying to hang on to all 5 through signing day. 

Given the buzz on these guys to Texas, the Arkansas guy and Jackson become mysteries. One of those posters in the screenshots alluded to Jackson announcing tomorrow but we haven’t heard that, have we?

Yeah, I noticed that.  The last thing I saw had him as "mid-July".

[Elmer_Fudd 22033]

5 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

That’s crazy. You can’t get a better OV list than that. Is he just one of those really raw Florida kids that Gerry talks about?  If you are doing recruiting rankings for a service and see an OV schedule like that, maybe it’s time to take a second look at your evaluation. 

Here's his ranking on all four sites.

 

Just now, cochamps said:

Yeah, I noticed that.  The last thing I saw had him as "mid-July".

It's been talked about the IMG guys (Jackson and Lindsey) would commit before they report to campus, which I belive is around the 20th of this month.

[BurntOrange&White 39268]

I tried finding the list but what are the set dates we know about currently?

 

[Getafix 28365]

 

Talking about visits, offers and rating/ranking, Jayden Jackson is a composite low 4 star (barely), and a 247Sports 3 star.

- Jayden Jackson's visits 

Jackson's offers

 

(He also has Tenn, A&M, USC, Penn State, etc. on his offer list.)

Goes back to a comment in one of CTJ's updates about the staff thinking a bunch of these DLs were underrated.

 

 

 

[HtownHorn 14395]

58 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Robinson's offer list doesn't match his 247 rating of a mid-3*.

Gerry has said the same, criminally under-rated. He likes all our LOS offers. He thinks all of them are under-rated.

[Duane Moore 5236]

4 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

Talking about visits, offers and rating/ranking, Jayden Jackson is a composite low 4 star (barely), and a 247Sports 3 star.

- Jayden Jackson's visits 

Jackson's offers

 

(He also has Tenn, A&M, USC, Penn State, etc. on his offer list.)

Goes back to a comment in one of CTJ's updates about the staff thinking a bunch of these DLs were underrated.

 

 

 

I am not a “trust the coaches” guy across the board, but I will give the benefit of the doubt on their evaluations to Bo Davis on DL, Flood on OL, and Sark on QB’s.