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Posted

What could go wrong?  (I didn't think the Executive branch has the power to fire/change staff at the Fed)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says?embedded-checkout=true

Quote

Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican who was among the holdouts on the cryptocurrency bill, wrote on social media that she was “hearing Jerome Powell is getting fired! From a very serious source.”

In a later post, she wrote, “I’m 99% sure firing is imminent.”

The White House official disputed the notion that Trump would move immediately to remove Powell.

In seeking to fire him, Trump would test the legal bounds of his authority over the central bank and independent federal agencies more broadly.

 

Posted
25 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

But will it get rates lowered. I'm gonna drive right around your CR posts 

Cool story sweetie. While you're at it look up what happens to countries where the interest rate is determined by the whims of a desperate politician.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Cool story sweetie. While you're at it look up what happens to countries where the interest rate is determined by the whims of a desperate politician.

You don't have to sweetie me.  I'm not picking a side I'm picking me being in mortgages. Which if you had been around for a minute you would know 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You don't have to sweetie me.  I'm not picking a side I'm picking me being in mortgages. Which if you had been around for a minute you would know 

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

Congrats on people thinking you're a piece of shit bc of how you post on the internet. Maybe consider that before your mom lets you post next 

Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

You might as well quote @Wulaw Horn and @LCHorn too so that we're all bad at it 

Edited by UTPhil2006
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Posted
4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Whatever gets rates lower I'm in for 

That’s like me hoping for a second great depression.   

Blame the game, but not the players!

 

Posted
3 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

firing powell might have the opposite effect

Powell is done in less than a year anyway. I agree with your comment on the outcome regardless if he’s fired or leaves when his term as chair ends. I think the bond markets are going to start pushing up rates on longer term treasuries even if the fed lowers the federal funds rate.

Posted
1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

That’s like me hoping for a second great depression.   

Blame the game, but not the players!

 

I read the 2025 financial goals thread. I'm on everyone's side. If my loss is everyones gain so be it. I'm just trying to keep my head above water 

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Posted

You are not evil for wanting to support your family.    

I am not evil for hoping that tens of millions will be unemployed and decide we need a new deal like country and they never vote GOP again (until some semblance of morality returns to their ranks.)

It’s just that son-of-a-bitch Johnson and this goddamn war

 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Congrats on people thinking you're a piece of shit bc of how you post on the internet. Maybe consider that before your mom lets you post next 

You responded to a post that said nothing political but quoted the president not knowing it was himself who appointed nominated the chair of the Fed by thread policing. Now people "think I'm a pos."  Are you okay?

and I mistakenly left out the "do you know who I am?" bit...lulz, nice play, sir, nice play.

Edited by Chopper
Posted
2 hours ago, Chopper said:

You responded to a post that said nothing political but quoted the president not knowing it was himself who appointed nominated the chair of the Fed by thread policing. Now people "think I'm a pos."  Are you okay?

and I mistakenly left out the "do you know who I am?" bit...lulz, nice play, sir, nice play.

You do you guy. I apologize for attacking you. 

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Posted

Inflation number has beat expectations 6 months in a row and we are seeing basically nothing due to tariffs at the moment. Job market is soft but not disastrous. I’d think rates get lowered a couple times at least between now and the end of the year but who knows. 

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You do you guy. I apologize for attacking you. 

Thank you, sir. I hope the rates fucking drop, too. It's a shame they probably won't until things get really desperate due to the across the board tariff issues.

59 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

Don't apologize. 

Some guy that never posts on this thread dropped some Trump content. You tried to redirect. He wouldn't let it go. He wasn't adding anything to the conversation. You were right. 

Huh... 17 posts, eh. I'll bet I can guess exactly who this idiot is.

adding - For the record, however, the post was entirely relevant. The person who's most significant to rates dropping is the Fed Reserve president, whom the potus is threatening to fire -- illegally -- because he won't lower rates. The president nominated him but he can't recall that basic fact. The role of the Federal Reserve is statutory - to primarily focus on employment and inflation.

Edited by Chopper
Posted

lol if you think we’re getting rate cuts.  Not happening this year as inflation ticks up.  I’m resigned to 6.5 to 7 percent rates for mortgage for the next twelve months and it’s going to really drag on home buying.

 

Personally I’m at five percent so I don’t think I’m ever refinancing, just paying it off.

Posted
11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation number has beat expectations 6 months in a row and we are seeing basically nothing due to tariffs at the moment.

Yes, waiter? I'll have what he's having. I too would like to live in the alternative reality you're describing lol

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Yes, waiter? I'll have what he's having. I too would like to live in the alternative reality you're describing lol

I don’t know what to tell you. PPI is up 0.1% the previous 6 months (cumulative). The 3 month run rate (annualized) is 2.1 or something like that and the 6 month is 2.4. The non government people that do the inflation basket stuff have inflation sub 2. 
every month there is expectations for what inflation is going to come in at and every month it has come in at or beneath expectations. 
You want to say you don’t trust the data?  Cool. I’ve certainly been making that point (and been vindicated by it) on the job report for YEARS. 
 

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You want to say you don’t trust the data?  Cool. I’ve certainly been making that point (and been vindicated by it) on the job report for YEARS. 

No, I'm saying that the stock market is decoupled from reality, so arguing that the "economy is fine because stonks go up" is not really a thorough analysis.

26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

every month there is expectations for what inflation is going to come in at and every month it has come in at or beneath expectations. 

Oh, so prices aren't significantly higher than they were five years ago? I must have missed that the house I bought this year was literally half the price in 2019. Or that my same $150 grocery cart is now $250. I'm sure all the attacks on farm workers and invasions of build crews will definitely help with bringing those prices down too.

Edited by Captainant
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

The post was relevant. Your commentary attached to that post wasn't. UTPhil was correct.

 

"Imbecile" and "dementia" are somehow CR? Also fyi if you want to police thread, go get fucked instead. 

To @UTPhil2006please accept my apologies for sarcastically calling you sweetie.

 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

No, I'm saying that the stock market is decoupled from reality, so arguing that the "economy is fine because stonks go up" is not really a thorough analysis.

Oh, so prices aren't significantly higher than they were five years ago? I must have missed that the house I bought this year was literally half the price in 2019. Or that my same $150 grocery cart is now $250. I'm sure all the attacks on farm workers and invasions of build crews will definitely help with bringing those prices down too.

I gave a very very very clear timeframe in 6 months. You are going back 5 years. Yes. Inflation is up 25% from that time period. Carry on quoting me without remotely coming close to responding to anything I said in a topical matter. 
also, I never mentioned anything about stocks. 
Up your meds. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I gave a very very very clear timeframe in 6 months. You are going back 5 years. Yes. Inflation is up 25% from that time period. Carry on quoting me without remotely coming close to responding to anything I said in a topical matter. 
also, I never mentioned anything about stocks. 
Up your meds. 

Yes, it's easy to argue that inflation has been defeated since January 20, 2025 if you ignore all the reality surrounding your claim. Prices are going up, and tariffs are driving that.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-inflation-expected-rise-june-with-tariff-driven-price-hikes-2025-07-15/ (apologies for using this rag of a publication, next to no factual reporting from them unfortuantely)

Further, you didn't bring any data or anything aside from your assertion, so I'm not sure how you'd like me to respond aside from going "ahyup okeydoke". Most tariff regimes take months to show impact, we're only just now seeing the first wave of price pass-throughs.

 

But yes, of course. Anyone who disagrees is mentally ill. Such incredible community building that's not toxic, wow.

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Posted (edited)

Health insurers in CO are looking for a 28% rate increase in 2026. The full cost to consumers doesn't count the substantial decrease in subsidies that have been available to make health care affordable for millions of people.  I did a quick search and I didn't see similar reporting about rate filings for Texas though they'll probably be out soon (?).

image.png.07fbaef0a96536ed1fc87466a10e5282.png

https://coloradosun.com/2025/07/17/colorado-health-insurance-prices-one-big-beautiful-bill/

 

...

image.thumb.png.296f1ac435414bab876ad2b873e5c72f.png

 

 

Edited by Chopper
Posted

Homebuilders don’t seem to share the sunny disposition in here that everything is awesome and if we could just get some rate cuts everything would fly to the moon.  They are going to everyone asking for price reductions right now.  I guess that’s super bullish.

Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Homebuilders don’t seem to share the sunny disposition in here that everything is awesome and if we could just get some rate cuts everything would fly to the moon.  They are going to everyone asking for price reductions right now.  I guess that’s super bullish.

Asking all their suppliers and subcontractors for price reductions when the best they can offer their buyers are 3-2-1 buydowns seems compelling.  

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Posted
8 hours ago, Chopper said:

"Imbecile" and "dementia" are somehow CR? Also fyi if you want to police thread, go get fucked instead. 

To @UTPhil2006please accept my apologies for sarcastically calling you sweetie.

 

Fuck off.  Christ you people are a beating.  
 

ps get fucked

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Posted
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Fuck off.  Christ you people are a beating.  
 

ps get fucked

Your favorite band is coldplay. stfu.

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Posted

As long as the gig economy lives in the "real" economy's garage apartment, the unemployment rate is useless. If you want a job, you can get one by hitting submit on whatever new app rolls out this month.

You lucky entrepreneur you! Look at you being your own job-creator!
 

Posted (edited)

This thread could be a top 5 thread on this board. Look inflation and tariffs are inherently political, and politics is sometimes news. I fucking hate Trump and am a flaming unicorn liberal. Hey girl hey! but I can leave partisanship alone while still discussing the merits - including criticism of political / fiscal policy on a thread like this because I want to make money. I actually think most can’t leave it alone - both those who scream Trump is a moran and those that complain, but he said the T word!!? most on either side can’t act like adults. It fucking sucks. Take that for #bothsides

Edited by troph
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Posted

I listen to Mark Zandi’s regular podcast. They talk about all this stuff and agree on the current weakness of the economic indicators, and general lack of inflation, especially when shelter of factored in correctly, which it is not. But they tend to think long rates stay high due to the deficit and tariff based inflation that is coming.

Who knows if their crystal ball is any better than anyone else’s. But they seem to present data and projections with about the least amount of bias and spin that I can find.

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Posted
On 7/16/2025 at 11:27 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Whatever gets rates lower I'm in for 

I’m hesitant to wade into this, but it’s probably worth mentioning here that whenever they assume office,  if the new chair is not perceived to be an independent actor, it’s entirely possible (or perhaps even likely) that mortgage rates don’t budge, or even go up, even if the Fed reduces the Fed funds rate. 

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Posted (edited)

I am not as sold as I was on "Fed Independence".

Firstly, why should we have rogue agencies? It seems like a failed model of governance.

Second, the bigger picture is that the Fed has failed in every way, why would I even care if they are independent? 

Third, their mandate is price stability and full employment. But the big problem is that their interest rates will bankrupt the federal government. They weren't set up to deal with this. There is no "best case scenario" for the Fed. They are useless. Rate hikes do not reduce tariffs, what a ludicrous idea. It's an absurd institution.

There will be rate repression and surging inflation. There can be nothing else. There are no good outcomes with bad government.

June money supply grew about 4%, lower than the rate that would support 2% inflation. We are well below the 2% target. We will continue to see lower CPI for the near term, mostly due to a lack of animal spirits.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer
Posted
9 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I am not as sold as I was on "Fed Independence".

Firstly, why should we have rogue agencies? It seems like a failed model of governance.

Second, the bigger picture is that the Fed has failed in every way, why would I even care if they are independent? 

Third, their mandate is price stability and full employment. But the big problem is that their interest rates will bankrupt the federal government. They weren't set up to deal with this. There is no "best case scenario" for the Fed. They are useless. Rate hikes do not reduce tariffs, what a ludicrous idea. It's an absurd institution.

There will be rate repression and surging inflation. There can be nothing else. There are no good outcomes with bad government.

June money supply grew about 4%, lower than the rate that would support 2% inflation. We are well below the 2% target. We will continue to see lower CPI for the near term, mostly due to a lack of animal spirits.

 

Because you don't want an asshole like Trump in charge of monetary policy.  End of discussion.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Because you don't want an asshole like Trump in charge of monetary policy.  End of discussion.

In lieu of your TDS, you might try and understand the system and how it works. The money printing is driven by government borrowing and spending. the nearly 50% inflation we just experienced under Biden doesn't leave me feeling comfortable that if a Democrat is in charge we can trust them to guarantee stable prices. Which party do you trust to guarantee stable prices? Also, please show your work where this "independence" didn't decrease the value of the dollar by 99% over the last 100 years.

Edited by Thetexashammer
Posted
2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

In lieu of your TDS, you might try and understand the system and how it works. The money printing is driven by government borrowing and spending. the nearly 50% inflation we just experienced under Biden doesn't leave me feeling comfortable that if a Democrat is in charge we can trust them to guarantee stable prices. Which party do you trust to guarantee stable prices? Also, please show your work where this "independence" didn't decrease the value of the dollar by 99% over the last 100 years.

LMAO "no CR".  

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Posted

Is crying about interest rates at the same time you're driving up home prices by raising taxes on things like copper and lumber being a good member of team #bothsides?

Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

In lieu of your TDS, you might try and understand the system and how it works. The money printing is driven by government borrowing and spending. the nearly 50% inflation we just experienced under Biden doesn't leave me feeling comfortable that if a Democrat is in charge we can trust them to guarantee stable prices. Which party do you trust to guarantee stable prices? Also, please show your work where this "independence" didn't decrease the value of the dollar by 99% over the last 100 years.

TDS...tiny dick syndrome??

image.thumb.png.1c59fa18da6650050323a7a6f5ec321b.png

 

This is both hilarious and startling.

 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted

What kind of dollar loss would qualify the fed as a rogue agency? Would $1 trillion do it? Is that enough to be "rogue"? Obviously I would say yes.

24 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The other issue is a lack of credibility. Long term rates are a function of the sense that the American banking system is independent and neutral to politics. 
 

This is political horseshit. While the Fed has always been political, it has also always been independent. That’s not a “Rogue agency” that’s an independent central bank operating in a free market.

Well, it managed to keep a fiat currency operating as the world’s value reserve for 50 years, allowing people like you and I to enjoy tax cuts and fairly stable prices over a long period by exporting debt to other countries and getting imported tangible goods in return, so it seems pretty successful to me.

If that looks like failure to you, I’m curious what you think a successful central bank looks like. 

I’m old enough to remember when I was on Hornfans shouting from the rooftops about position of the dollar and the the exploding debt while you were caping for the 2003 Tax cuts and increased structural deficits as far as the eye could see, not to mention the Iraq war. 

If you really want to do this take it to the Cloak Room. And bring your shine box. 

I wasn't on Hornfans, friendo.

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I wasn't on Hornfans, friendo.

You’re not The Texas Hammer from Hornfans? Cheerfully withdrawn, in that case. 
What does a successful central bank look like to you?

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted
9 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

What kind of dollar loss would qualify the fed as a rogue agency? Would $1 trillion do it? Is that enough to be "rogue"? Obviously I would say yes.

Obviously not, no, because I understand what it is. And to be clear I’m not saying that the recording of unrealized loss as a deferred asset is good but I understood what led to it, and what it means in terms of monetary policy. you don’t seem to understand what the loss is that you are talk about. You’re acting like the “loss” was the result of mismanagement or malfeasance.

Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You’re not The Texas Hammer from Hornfans? Cheerfully withdrawn, in that case. 
What does a successful central bank look like to you?

I was on Shaggy, not Hornfans.

No central bank. 

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Obviously not, no, because I understand what it is. And to be clear I’m not saying that the recording of unrealized loss as a deferred asset is good but I understood what led to it, and what it means in terms of monetary policy. you don’t seem to understand what the loss is that you are talk about. You’re acting like the “loss” was the result of mismanagement or malfeasance.

Yes, what led to it was the transfer of your money and mine to wealthy bankers because we wouldn't want them to be made uncomfrotable.

Holy shit did you just call it a deferred asset? I was a CPA, I get double entry bookkeeping, but you just indict yourself as one of the fraudsters when you do that. 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I was on Shaggy, not Hornfans.

No central bank. 

Yes, what led to it was the transfer of your money and mine to wealthy bankers because we wouldn't want them to be made uncomfrotable.

Holy shit did you just call it a deferred asset? I was a CPA, I get double entry bookkeeping, but you just indict yourself as one of the fraudsters when you do that. 

I generally dislike the fed but fear ANY president controlling it rather than a team of economists will only make it worse.

I missed the $1T transfer that prompted this debate but I appreciate the back and forth. Can you expand?

Edited by B00M
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