Jump to content

Realignment talk not going away


The Tower

Recommended Posts

Going full circle back to the Shaggy days, this nugget dropped today from FSU 247 insider:

Quote

 

Over the last decade, and especially since the signing of the latest ACC TV contract (GOR), I've been largely dismissive of FSU when it came to realignment discussions. I am not at this time.

- I do believe FSU is wholeheartedly and actively looking to get out of the ACC.

- The ACC Spring Meetings were FSU firmly issuing a warning about the future. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips comments on Tuesday at ACC Kickoff showed that the warning wasn't taken very seriously, at least from the perspective of putting messaging out there.

- Why is August 15th discussed? An exiting school must notify the conference and its members of its plans by that date in order to leave by the end of the following June, resulting in rougly a 10-month wait.

- If notification doesn't happen by then, then it becomes a 22-month wait (two seasons).

- Realignment, depatures, etc. involve a lot of moving parts. Landing spot, exit fees, grant-of-rights legal situation, etc. I don't have thorough details on how that will all work if FSU goes forward with truly departing the ACC. 

I just want to state that I believe it is more of a reality today than ever before.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Well, the issue becomes after 16 you start getting diminishing returns because you start losing TV windows big enough to pay for your adds.   The B12 adding Pac teams, as pointed out by someone a few pages ago, allows ESPN/Fox to get some late games by adding a few teams, than having to pay for them all.

If you can't get Oregon or Washington, its not because they want to stay in the Pac, its because they want to wait for the B1G.  In that case, take Arizona, stick at 14, and wait 5 years.  They want something bigger than where they are or what you offer, so its just a terminal case for the Pac.   Once they leave there isn't a big risk the remainder can rise from the dead.   The B12 bounced back because there were fringe properties to sustain them.   

Outside maybe Stanford for ND, who is coming for Cal, ASU, Utah, OSU, or WSU?   Or, who can those schools add to rival you?   Boise?  SDSU?   Tulane?  Nerp.

Those 3 remaining seats in the B12 are now very valuable and the Buffs said why: Stable (even if its just stable because no one else but people at band camp will date you), media deal with ESPN/Fox, and exposure in three time zones, including Texas and Florida.

The hardest decision right now is for Oregon and Washington.    No way the B12 allows them to temp it and, unlike the Pac's agreement, the B12 has a $100m buyout.   So do you hold, hoping the B1G takes the schools on the West Coast that USC/UCLA don't want them to bring, or do you give up your dream to become the big kids on the new block?

Oh, and if you wait too long, ASU/Utah may pull a Colorado and steal 15/16 as they wait for you to cheat on them.

tenor.gif?itemid=13413340

I've always said realignment is CFB Game of Thrones.  We're going to see it play out over the next couple of months.

Will fomo push the 4C schools to jump first, or will the PNW schools realize they're better off in the B12 playing higher profile games in better windows with more exposure ?

 

If you get the 4C schools to jump, you take them, as that truly kills the PAC, and UW and UO would still be worth adding and going to 18.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Going full circle back to the Shaggy days, this nugget dropped today from FSU 247 insider:

 

@Hurtlocker

Insider's name is Chris Nee.  He's on their 247 staff.

Reading the reactions on the FSU board, they are all taking this to mean it's happening, as their insider apparently only drops things that are rock solid.

450 upvotes and they're celebrating like they just won a national title.

 

 

Edited by USC Traveler
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think the SEC TV deal has the same option that the Big 12 has in that adding a new team doesn't mean you automatically keep the same levels of revenue for each addition. I could be wildly inaccurate on that but Disney isn't going to pony up more money right now when they're looking to  cut costs and even partner with leagues over their TV deals. So I highly doubt FSU can afford to go anywhere and the Big 10 isn't going to want them. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I don't think the SEC TV deal has the same option that the Big 12 has in that adding a new team doesn't mean you automatically keep the same levels of revenue for each addition. I could be wildly inaccurate on that but Disney isn't going to pony up more money right now when they're looking to  cut costs and even partner with leagues over their TV deals. So I highly doubt FSU can afford to go anywhere and the Big 10 isn't going to want them. 

I don't think so either.   The plus is, unlike the B1G where you need to buy into an ownership stake, the SEC's is a full rights deal with a revenue bump for SECNetwork performance.  

I'd love to hear how they're avoiding the 13 remaining years on their GoR they signed to get the ACC Network though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

ASU and UU will be harder to poach than UA.  They want the academic association with Stanford/Cal...   They'll convince themselves that easier playoff access will be worth lower money and visibility.

How long will the autobid continue to exist for PAC12 without usc/ucla in that league.  Heard a $9.95er on a podcast today say that he won't be surprised to see the PAC12 Champion lose their autobid for the CFP in the next few years...

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I don't think the SEC TV deal has the same option that the Big 12 has in that adding a new team doesn't mean you automatically keep the same levels of revenue for each addition. I could be wildly inaccurate on that but Disney isn't going to pony up more money right now when they're looking to  cut costs and even partner with leagues over their TV deals. So I highly doubt FSU can afford to go anywhere and the Big 10 isn't going to want them. 

The BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat.  Outside of ND, they’re the most additive school out there for the BIG.  

FSU is the best non-ND brand left out there.  Getting BTN in-market rates in FL would be huge.  Recruiting for both athletes and regular students for BIG schools would be a huge win for the BIG schools, most of which are in declining or slow growth states.

Pair them with Miami and BIG schools can engage with BIG alums in FL on a regular basis.

FSU and Miami would be a grand slam for the BIG, and Fox would absolutely want them in the BIG.  Plus, that would  start the dominoes falling in the ACC, which would bring ND into the BIG.

//

For the reasons you point out, it’s not the same with the SEC for those schools.  ESPN has no motivation to move them to SEC.  What better time for Fox/BIG to strike and get the best of the ACC into the BIG than when ESPN is weak ?

You’ll also have SEC schools that would rather recruit against FSU and Miami as BIG members than bring them into the SEC, which would make them tougher competition in recruiting.

 

Bottom line- BIG has a demographics problem that expansion in FL and the Southeast helps solve.  FSU has to be their #2 target after ND.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

How long will the autobid continue to exist for PAC12 without usc/ucla in that league.  Heard a $9.95er on a podcast today say that he won't be surprised to see the PAC12 Champion lose their autobid for the CFP in the next few years...

No conference has a CFP autobid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

Going full circle back to the Shaggy days, this nugget dropped today from FSU 247 insider:

- I do believe FSU is wholeheartedly and actively looking to get out of the ACC.

- The ACC Spring Meetings were FSU firmly issuing a warning about the future. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips comments on Tuesday at ACC Kickoff showed that the warning wasn't taken very seriously, at least from the perspective of putting messaging out there.

- Why is August 15th discussed? An exiting school must notify the conference and its members of its plans by that date in order to leave by the end of the following June, resulting in rougly a 10-month wait.

- If notification doesn't happen by then, then it becomes a 22-month wait (two seasons).

- Realignment, depatures, etc. involve a lot of moving parts. Landing spot, exit fees, grant-of-rights legal situation, etc. I don't have thorough details on how that will all work if FSU goes forward with truly departing the ACC. 

I just want to state that I believe it is more of a reality today than ever before.

So FSU news on TUESDAY????

image.png.9d7671b8bca80c4ac8c474e7f422da20.png

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, LTbear said:

No conference has a CFP autobid.

 

Thanks.  Guess it will come down to CFP rankings to determine if the PAC12 Champion qualifies for the playoff...

 

Screenshot_20230727-210643_kindlephoto-7060685.thumb.png.d1d0863697f806e72f08faaf2e0722d7.png

 

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football/college-football-playoff-expansion-12-teams

Edited by LTtxfan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Josef Pwag said:

There won't be a playoff. The B1G champ will play the SEC champ and those 2 conferences will declare that school to be the national champion. That is all that matters. No one will care that Texas Tech beat Oregon State in the Crocs Bowl.

NO way. The SEC champ routing Ohio St. 8 years out of 10, Michigan 1 out of 10 and losing to Ohio St. the other year just won't be that interesting.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, bullet said:

NO way. The SEC champ routing Ohio St. 8 years out of 10, Michigan 1 out of 10 and losing to Ohio St. the other year just won't be that interesting.

A 12 team playoff is more interesting. But yes, the SEC probably runs roughshod over everybody except for an occasional Ohio State or Clemson uprising. The numbers are the numbers. 
 

The networks have to hope and pray for more David and Goliath close games like Cincy and Georgia a few years back. 
 

Hopefully, Texas rises to the competition. At a minimum, we’ll have have an infinitely more complex offense than 80% of the conference. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

The BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat.  Outside of ND, they’re the most additive school out there for the BIG.  

FSU is the best non-ND brand left out there.  Getting BTN in-market rates in FL would be huge.  Recruiting for both athletes and regular students for BIG schools would be a huge win for the BIG schools, most of which are in declining or slow growth states.

Pair them with Miami and BIG schools can engage with BIG alums in FL on a regular basis.

FSU and Miami would be a grand slam for the BIG, and Fox would absolutely want them in the BIG.  Plus, that would  start the dominoes falling in the ACC, which would bring ND into the BIG.

//

For the reasons you point out, it’s not the same with the SEC for those schools.  ESPN has no motivation to move them to SEC.  What better time for Fox/BIG to strike and get the best of the ACC into the BIG than when ESPN is weak ?

You’ll also have SEC schools that would rather recruit against FSU and Miami as BIG members than bring them into the SEC, which would make them tougher competition in recruiting.

 

Bottom line- BIG has a demographics problem that expansion in FL and the Southeast helps solve.  FSU has to be their #2 target after ND.

FSU joining the B1G would make for the most awkward conference possible. You would have 1 FL school, 2 CA schools, and a bunch of rustbelt schools plus a few worthless NE schools. They are the next obvious SEC fit along with Clemson imo.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

FSU joining the B1G would make for the most awkward conference possible. You would have 1 FL school, 2 CA schools, and a bunch of rustbelt schools plus a few worthless NE schools. They are the next obvious SEC fit along with Clemson imo.

Remind me again how FSU or Clemson gets out of their GOR deal with the ACC?  Is there really a way out?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Remind me again how FSU or Clemson gets out of their GOR deal with the ACC?  Is there really a way out?

They would have to blow up the conference. With the Big 12 going west and not enough spots left in the Big 10/SEC to take in the powers that seems unlikely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

I'd love to hear how they're avoiding the 13 remaining years on their GoR they signed to get the ACC Network though.


This seems to be the sticking point. I’ve often wondered what would happen on that front since: 

a) it’s an ESPN property staying with ESPN

b) ESPN could pull a stunt like they did with the b12 and pay the ACC in the same fashion.
 

At that point, ESPN isn’t losing anything (already had FSU home games), and actually gaining better matchups for FSU.

The ACC isn’t losing anything, as ESPN would be paying above their market value. They end up with more than they would between now and their current end of contract, and probably more than market a bit on their next one if no other defections occur.

Assuming they would be headed to the SEC, but ESPN still wins if it was b12, even if they gave them another bump.

Could that be enough to significantly lower the exit fees/penalties?

I suppose that depends solely on ESPN, and whether or not it’s been budgeted or made available.

Another possibility, and probably less likely, would be enough ACC teams bail at once to breakup the ACC. Wasn’t their some group of 8 or whatever that was meeting together a lot last spring? 
 

I suppose if ESPN was really wanting to cut costs, then they could let a few properties run off to the b1g, maybe even the b12. They end up paying less either way. The ACC wouldn’t exist to collect exit fees, ESPN comes out to their advantage on the TV end, and the ACC network (being an ESPN property) becomes the b12 network, in a more rabid football area overall. If they picked up a few acc mids, even better.

With no Pac or ACC you’re left with a P3 (with space obviously between the top 2 and 3), and the G-whatever.

On the money side, it probably makes sense for ESPN and Fox to each have one, and both have stakes in the other. Maybe even split by divisions. Northern division/pods get Fox at home, the other half gets ESPN at home.

At that point both of the money players are on better footing than they are now, free to handle their main conference as they see fit, and each collaborate on the joint effort.

Although it’s all probably a big stretch for anything to happen other than saber rattling. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Over the last 15 years, when you exclude games against ND and all 2024 BIG/SEC members, UO, UW and Stanford are all in a similar tier.  
 

They’re below FSU, Clemson and Miami, and not that much above Wazzu, which overperformed under Leach.

UO has scheduled a lot of SEC teams plus OSU ooc during that time, which helps boost their ratings.

They’re not additive to the BIG and don’t have any internal support.

BIG priorities: ND, then the ACC.

Stanford had the 7th best winning record from 2010-2019.  They were 92nd from 2000-2009.  That's their history.  Very up and down.  Don't think the are a particularly good add and their attraction to Notre Dame is all about the Bay Area.  ND could care less about them.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:


This seems to be the sticking point. I’ve often wondered what would happen on that front since: 

a) it’s an ESPN property staying with ESPN

b) ESPN could pull a stunt like they did with the b12 and pay the ACC in the same fashion.
 

At that point, ESPN isn’t losing anything (already had FSU home games), and actually gaining better matchups for FSU.

The ACC isn’t losing anything, as ESPN would be paying above their market value. They end up with more than they would between now and their current end of contract, and probably more than market a bit on their next one if no other defections occur.

Assuming they would be headed to the SEC, but ESPN still wins if it was b12, even if they gave them another bump.

Could that be enough to significantly lower the exit fees/penalties?

I suppose that depends solely on ESPN, and whether or not it’s been budgeted or made available.

Another possibility, and probably less likely, would be enough ACC teams bail at once to breakup the ACC. Wasn’t their some group of 8 or whatever that was meeting together a lot last spring? 
 

I suppose if ESPN was really wanting to cut costs, then they could let a few properties run off to the b1g, maybe even the b12. They end up paying less either way. The ACC wouldn’t exist to collect exit fees, ESPN comes out to their advantage on the TV end, and the ACC network (being an ESPN property) becomes the b12 network, in a more rabid football area overall. If they picked up a few acc mids, even better.

With no Pac or ACC you’re left with a P3 (with space obviously between the top 2 and 3), and the G-whatever.

On the money side, it probably makes sense for ESPN and Fox to each have one, and both have stakes in the other. Maybe even split by divisions. Northern division/pods get Fox at home, the other half gets ESPN at home.

At that point both of the money players are on better footing than they are now, free to handle their main conference as they see fit, and each collaborate on the joint effort.

Although it’s all probably a big stretch for anything to happen other than saber rattling. 

They would also be jettisoning a couple of valuable brands to the B1G in this scenario. They would almost certainly lose UNC and Miami, a football and basketball blue blood to Fox.

Edited by Vertigo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

They would also be jettisoning a couple of valuable brands to the B1G in this scenario. They would almost certainly lose UNC and Miami, a football and basketball blue blood to Fox.

Exactly. Which would also save them money if they were try in that big of a pinch.

Companies trying to cut all the fat they can will often make rash, illogical moves.

The most probable explanation is they’re just throwing another tantrum because they know that they really can’t afford to leave just yet. 
 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

FSU joining the B1G would make for the most awkward conference possible. You would have 1 FL school, 2 CA schools, and a bunch of rustbelt schools plus a few worthless NE schools. They are the next obvious SEC fit along with Clemson imo.

If FSU gets out, I’d expect it to be them and Miami.

BIG will get UVA and UNC also imo, so now to you have a Southeast wing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bullet said:

Stanford had the 7th best winning record from 2010-2019.  They were 92nd from 2000-2009.  That's their history.  Very up and down.  Don't think the are a particularly good add and their attraction to Notre Dame is all about the Bay Area.  ND could care less about them.

I'll make you a friendly wager that Stanford gets into the BIG before UO does.

How about a burger and a beer at a future USC-UT game ?

It will be fun to talk CFB history with you either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just can't help feeling a little like, fuck Colorado. Those chicken littles bailed on the big 12 at the first sign of trouble back in the day and here they are again, trying to get over on the rest of the pac to secure their spot at the (now kiddie) table once again. That they have to come crawling back to the Kirkland version of the big 12 is a little humorous, but by the same token if they had any sort of spine they maybe could have stuck around in the first place and tried to make it work for everybody else? And people think texas is a bad conference partner? Colorado is the type that tries to sit down while the music is still playing in musical chairs. Like, fuck them.

And whoever brought up the rose bowl earlier joking about how the big 12 should get the invite... Funny thing about the rose bowl is that they were the biggest impediment to having a playoff for years and years. They had been clinging onto that pac/b1g match-up to the detriment of the rest of college football for decades. As much as I revere that place as the biggest and most historic stage in college football, I can't help but snicker at their being a sacred cow now getting sacrificed at the pac altar. So fuck the rose bowl too while we're at it. I'm sure it will be convenient from a self preservation standpoint for them to get in line with the new playoff structure ASAP, but I'd like to see those assholes be forced host ucf. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:


This seems to be the sticking point. I’ve often wondered what would happen on that front since: 

a) it’s an ESPN property staying with ESPN

b) ESPN could pull a stunt like they did with the b12 and pay the ACC in the same fashion.
 

At that point, ESPN isn’t losing anything (already had FSU home games), and actually gaining better matchups for FSU.

The ACC isn’t losing anything, as ESPN would be paying above their market value. They end up with more than they would between now and their current end of contract, and probably more than market a bit on their next one if no other defections occur.

Assuming they would be headed to the SEC, but ESPN still wins if it was b12, even if they gave them another bump.

Could that be enough to significantly lower the exit fees/penalties?

I suppose that depends solely on ESPN, and whether or not it’s been budgeted or made available.

Another possibility, and probably less likely, would be enough ACC teams bail at once to breakup the ACC. Wasn’t their some group of 8 or whatever that was meeting together a lot last spring? 
 

I suppose if ESPN was really wanting to cut costs, then they could let a few properties run off to the b1g, maybe even the b12. They end up paying less either way. The ACC wouldn’t exist to collect exit fees, ESPN comes out to their advantage on the TV end, and the ACC network (being an ESPN property) becomes the b12 network, in a more rabid football area overall. If they picked up a few acc mids, even better.

With no Pac or ACC you’re left with a P3 (with space obviously between the top 2 and 3), and the G-whatever.

On the money side, it probably makes sense for ESPN and Fox to each have one, and both have stakes in the other. Maybe even split by divisions. Northern division/pods get Fox at home, the other half gets ESPN at home.

At that point both of the money players are on better footing than they are now, free to handle their main conference as they see fit, and each collaborate on the joint effort.

Although it’s all probably a big stretch for anything to happen other than saber rattling. 

First, totally with you on a big stretch, but for shits...

On P3, if Oregon, Washington and another Pac school joined the B12, its check mate.   You have what we all tried to do with maps 10 years ago and that's build some version of 16 team super conferences (granted the ACC is 14, but, you know), though just not in the way any of us speculated.    That seems to work more cleanly than taking it down to three.

On FSU to the SEC, the major difference between the B12 and ACC situations though is the B12 is getting a rider on P5 properties that ESPN doesn't have.   Getting Colorado and Arizona means ESPN gets late night without having to pay the Pac.    In this FSU situation, its like moving something between your own hands.  You own both, and one is locked up for a decade.   Who cares if they cry, they have to beat the ACC in court on the GoR before you ever have to deal with it (since the Gor isn't with ESPN) and if they do break the GoR they've inadvertently crumbled the system by which they're hoping to profit from, so what they want won't be there for them in the way they hope once the victory parade ends.  GoR's provide stability, which decreases risk, which increases revenues.   Yeah, let's kill that.

I imagine it to go more like.

SEC: Bro, Texas and OU, you in?

ESPN: Righteous bae

SEC: Bro, UNC and FSU

ESPN: Shut your whore mouth, bitch.

Come 2036, that could all change.   As it sits today, Texas can buy FSU without even realizing it spent money.   If USC and Texas waited until their Gor's were over, the only people on the FSU board who think they can get out with a buyout are people who don't understand how rights are assigned.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

That's the hundred million dollar question.

That's the half billion dollar question:

ACC Buyout (I think 3 years of revenue): $100m

GoR for 13 more years (with a 4% yearly increase): Approximately $ 506,727,666

Edited by Hurtlocker
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Washington, Oregon and Arizona to the big 12. 
boy they fucked up adding Cincy and houston. They could have gone Washington , Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Utah and had a damn good conference that with some work might be able to be better than the big 10. 

Except they wouldn't have been able to jump the Pac to get the extension without expanding.

The fuck up was the Pac didn't merge with the B12 when Texas/OU left.    Even if USC/UCLA still left, they'd now be the Pac 18.

  • Hook 'Em 8
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...