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Realignment talk not going away


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21 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:


He’s still desperately trying to bury the Big XII and it’s absolutely hilarious.
 

His blinding loyalty to the PAC is so blatantly coloring everything he does, as it has his writing for the past coupe years. 

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It appears to me that the strength of the B12, once Texas and OU are taken out of the equation, is that the schools know that the B12 is their one, sole chance at being in a Power Conference. If the B12 were to dissolve, could even TT and OSU count on landing somewhere better than the AAC? They know, as Franklin was reputed to have said, that if they don’t hang together, they’ll hang separately. 
The PAC doesn’t have that. Stanford, UW and Oregon have varying appeals. They can hope to land somewhere when the music stops. This creates instability, and an incentive for the PAC schools similar to B12 remnants in scope and ambition (Arizona schools, Utah, Colorado) to find landing spots now, before it’s too late. 
The only problem will be if the cfp is reconfigured and auto slots are denied the B12.

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5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I remember when Stewart Mandel was trying to claim that Pac 12 attendance was bad because people lived near the beach.

Sadly that's become a common excuse readily adopted by any PAC schools. Which is fine, I suppose - when I did my M.S. at CU, I went and hiked 14ers or camped instead of watching CU lose to Kansas, Montana State, etc. I get the appeal of having too much outdoor options to draw your attention. But that excuse doesn't make the low TV attendance/ fan engagement/ TV draw any less real. 

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3 minutes ago, statsman said:

In 2020, the PAC paid $33M per school. Take away USC and UCLA, and they’re looking at $25M?

In 2020, the B12 paid $38M per school. Take away UT and OU, add UH, UCF, Cincy and BYU, and they’re looking at $50M?

How does this work?

$33M per school was the PAC's total revenue distribution. MHVer is saying $25M per school in TV contracts, which might still mean above $33M per school total. But MHVer is probably full of shit. 

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9 minutes ago, statsman said:

In 2020, the PAC paid $33M per school. Take away USC and UCLA, and they’re looking at $25M?

In 2020, the B12 paid $38M per school. Take away UT and OU, add UH, UCF, Cincy and BYU, and they’re looking at $50M?

How does this work?

Same reason BIG and SEC we’re gonna go to $70 mil or so before the OU/TX and USC/UCLA moves. People are watching. Except for the PAC, there’s been a lot of indifference there and terrible product. Everyone was going to make a ton more regardless except for the PAC. The BIG and SEC just get to make super duper more with the moves.

Edited by 'stache
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1.  I realize that there's a sucker born every minute, but gotdam with the posting mhver3 bullcrap.  He's the Weekly World News of realignment, just a wanker posting complete fiction.  He reads a lot and guesses, but clearly has zero actual sources.  A long history of trolling.  Swaim is the same.

2.  Interesting possibly quandary for the ACC.  Perhaps their best way to more money would be to skim 4 to 6 of the best teams in the Pac and B12.  ESPN, I mean the ACC (wink wink, say no more) might want to nab Wash, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, and maybe the best two Texas school (probably TCU and Baylor or UH).  A mix of brands, markets, and the importance of local/in-state rate increases for the ACCNet.  This is probably the B12's biggest threat now.

But for ACC schools thinking/hoping to leave early if the B1G or SEC calls, adding any school raises the number of votes required to disband the conference from the current 8, making it a higher hurdle.  Meanwhile, the ACC schools most at risk of being left behind don't want to add schools that might later try to vote to dissolve, because in the case of a B1G/SEC raid you still might have a few schools that could also vote to disband if they had offers from a B12 that looked to be the better surviving 3rd conference.  Thus any $$$ increase from expansion would bring increased risks for many schools' long term/survival plans.  So I could see them ultimately wanting to stand pat.   

3.  I'm not ready to write off the Pac just yet, though.  If there's anything to this NBC shoulder talk, couldn't ND and NBC partner with the  Pac instead of the B12?  That said, I think ND wants a game in Texas nearly every year.  Perhaps at Reliant, Jerryworld, and the Alamodome.   Or could be just negotiating psyops by ND and/or the B12.

4.  Hard to see much $$$ value for the B12 from adding the 4 corners schools, but that would come over time from reduced competition by eliminating the Pac, so knocking down the initial dominoes is important.  And all 4 schools could do 8:30pm mountain time starts (along with BYU).

For a view from the Pac's perspective, here's last night's latest from an Oregon based writer:

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-big-12-doesnt-fit

Spoiler

The Big 12 reportedly informed the Pac-12 on Monday evening that it’s not interested in merging.

A few quick thoughts…

• I’m not shocked. I felt like a Big 12 + Pac-12 merger was wishful thinking. There’s strength in numbers, sure. But ultimately this is about fit and I struggled to see how those two conferences would mesh in a way that worked for both entities.

• The Pac-12 (minus USC and UCLA) will have 12.5 million television households in its remaining markets. The Big 12 currently has only 10.2 million TV homes, but will expand to about 15 million after the additions of BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. Keep those numbers in mind.

• The ACC has 28.2 million households. It’s TV markets are superior to the Big 12 and its not close. Also, the ACC already has a partnership with ESPN, which covets inventory in the Pacific Time Zone.

• I’ve wondered for a while how the Big 12 might fit in a new deal between ESPN and the Pac-12. Answer: It really doesn’t.

• The Big 12 and Pac-12 university presidents and chancellors didn’t feel like a seamless fit. Those who lead the Pac-12 campuses fashion themselves academics and lined up with the Big Ten over the years because of that.

• I’ve been writing and talking about a “loose partnership” between the Pac-12 and the ACC for a couple of weeks. I still believe this is headed in that direction.

• The Big 12’s television contract isn’t up until 2025. The Pac-12’s expires in 2024, but it has opened negotiations early. Those in the industry tell me this difference shouldn’t have been a deal breaker but it’s being cited as one of the reasons.

Bob Thompson, the former president of Fox Sports Networks, told me on Monday night, “If the Big 12 TV partners agreed to open negotiations early that could easily happen before 2024. Nothing precludes an early negotiation as long as parties agree.”

So it just sounds like a merger wasn’t a good fit.

Added Thompson: “So now we see if somebody plays ‘Let’s poach some teams.’”

• There was early speculation that the Big 12 might chase Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and Colorado. But media reports about that were shot down by my Pac-12 sources. I won’t speak for all four of those schools, but the prevailing sentiment from athletic directors within the Pac-12 is that the remaining 10 universities will stick together and ride out the current media rights negotiations together. I’ll make some calls and report back with updates.

• Phoenix’s TV market has 2.1 million households. I’ve wondered for a while if ASU might try to leverage the Pac-12 for a larger share of the next media rights deal. That said, I have a difficult time actually seeing ASU bolt for the Big 12.

• The Big 12 programs that I think the Pac-12 (and ESPN) would be most interested in are: Kansas, Baylor, TCU and Houston. If the Pac-12 goes hunting, I expect those universities to be primary targets. This is 100-percent about potential television revenue.

• I included Kansas because I think ESPN would covet men’s basketball matchups featuring the ACC’s Duke and North Carolina and the Pac-12’s Arizona and Oregon. Kansas would be an interesting addition.

• The Pac-12 is in an exclusive negotiating period with the ESPN and Fox. That window expires on Aug. 4, but I’m told the parties could come to an agreement before then.

• ESPN is the likely bidder here. Think about what that network needs. It has to think about the restless members in the ACC and how it might get them some additional revenue right now. A partnership with the Pac-12 makes sense to me. Sharing revenue with the Big 12 (Read: more mouths to feed) doesn’t.

• Pac-12 Media Day is July 29 in Los Angeles. Commissioner George Kliavkoff needs something to sell to the public during that event. I expect he’ll have something of substance. I don’t think we’re going to have to wait until Aug. 4.

More as this develops…

 

Edited by clapclapclap
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7 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

1.  I realize that there's a sucker born every minute, but gotdam with the posting mhver3 bullcrap.  He's the Weekly World News of realignment, just a wanker posting complete fiction.  He reads a lot and guesses, but clearly has zero actual sources.  A long history of trolling.  Swaim is the same.

2.  Interesting possibly quandary for the ACC.  Perhaps their best way to more money would be to skim 4 to 6 of the best teams in the Pac and B12.  ESPN, I mean the ACC (wink wink, say no more) might want to nab Wash, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, and maybe the best two Texas school (probably TCU and Baylor or UH).  A mix of brands, markets, and the importance of local/in-state rate increases for the ACCNet.  This is probably the B12's biggest threat now.

But for ACC schools thinking/hoping to leave early if the B1G or SEC calls, adding any school raises the number of votes required to disband the conference from the current 8, making it a higher hurdle.  Meanwhile, the ACC schools most at risk of being left behind don't want to add schools that might later try to vote to dissolve, because in the case of a B1G/SEC raid you still might have a few schools that could also vote to disband if they had offers from a B12 that looked to be the better surviving 3rd conference.  Thus any $$$ increase from expansion would bring increased risks for many schools' long term/survival plans.  So I could see them ultimately wanting to stand pat.  

3.  I'm not ready to write off the Pac just yet, though.  If there's anything to this NBC shoulder talk, couldn't ND and NBC partner with the  Pac instead of the B12?  That said, I think ND wants a game in Texas nearly every year.  Perhaps at Reliant, Jerryworld, and the Alamodome.   Or could be just negotiating psyops by ND and/or the B12.

4.  Hard to see much $$$ value for the B12 from adding the 4 corners schools, but that would come over time from reduced competition by eliminating the Pac, so knocking down the initial dominoes is important.  And all 4 schools could do 8:30pm mountain time starts (along with BYU).

For a view from the Pac's perspective, here's last night's latest from an Oregon based writer:

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-big-12-doesnt-fit

  Hide contents

The Big 12 reportedly informed the Pac-12 on Monday evening that it’s not interested in merging.

A few quick thoughts…

• I’m not shocked. I felt like a Big 12 + Pac-12 merger was wishful thinking. There’s strength in numbers, sure. But ultimately this is about fit and I struggled to see how those two conferences would mesh in a way that worked for both entities.

• The Pac-12 (minus USC and UCLA) will have 12.5 million television households in its remaining markets. The Big 12 currently has only 10.2 million TV homes, but will expand to about 15 million after the additions of BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston. Keep those numbers in mind.

• The ACC has 28.2 million households. It’s TV markets are superior to the Big 12 and its not close. Also, the ACC already has a partnership with ESPN, which covets inventory in the Pacific Time Zone.

• I’ve wondered for a while how the Big 12 might fit in a new deal between ESPN and the Pac-12. Answer: It really doesn’t.

• The Big 12 and Pac-12 university presidents and chancellors didn’t feel like a seamless fit. Those who lead the Pac-12 campuses fashion themselves academics and lined up with the Big Ten over the years because of that.

• I’ve been writing and talking about a “loose partnership” between the Pac-12 and the ACC for a couple of weeks. I still believe this is headed in that direction.

• The Big 12’s television contract isn’t up until 2025. The Pac-12’s expires in 2024, but it has opened negotiations early. Those in the industry tell me this difference shouldn’t have been a deal breaker but it’s being cited as one of the reasons.

Bob Thompson, the former president of Fox Sports Networks, told me on Monday night, “If the Big 12 TV partners agreed to open negotiations early that could easily happen before 2024. Nothing precludes an early negotiation as long as parties agree.”

So it just sounds like a merger wasn’t a good fit.

Added Thompson: “So now we see if somebody plays ‘Let’s poach some teams.’”

• There was early speculation that the Big 12 might chase Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and Colorado. But media reports about that were shot down by my Pac-12 sources. I won’t speak for all four of those schools, but the prevailing sentiment from athletic directors within the Pac-12 is that the remaining 10 universities will stick together and ride out the current media rights negotiations together. I’ll make some calls and report back with updates.

• Phoenix’s TV market has 2.1 million households. I’ve wondered for a while if ASU might try to leverage the Pac-12 for a larger share of the next media rights deal. That said, I have a difficult time actually seeing ASU bolt for the Big 12.

• The Big 12 programs that I think the Pac-12 (and ESPN) would be most interested in are: Kansas, Baylor, TCU and Houston. If the Pac-12 goes hunting, I expect those universities to be primary targets. This is 100-percent about potential television revenue.

• I included Kansas because I think ESPN would covet men’s basketball matchups featuring the ACC’s Duke and North Carolina and the Pac-12’s Arizona and Oregon. Kansas would be an interesting addition.

• The Pac-12 is in an exclusive negotiating period with the ESPN and Fox. That window expires on Aug. 4, but I’m told the parties could come to an agreement before then.

• ESPN is the likely bidder here. Think about what that network needs. It has to think about the restless members in the ACC and how it might get them some additional revenue right now. A partnership with the Pac-12 makes sense to me. Sharing revenue with the Big 12 (Read: more mouths to feed) doesn’t.

• Pac-12 Media Day is July 29 in Los Angeles. Commissioner George Kliavkoff needs something to sell to the public during that event. I expect he’ll have something of substance. I don’t think we’re going to have to wait until Aug. 4.

More as this develops…

 

Solid article

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Canzano's argument appears to be based on the belief/hope that simply having the same number of total eyeballs is always even. The problem for the Pac-12/10 teams is that their eyeballs, particularly the heavy population center in California, don't watch football at nearly the same percentage that the Big 12 region's eyeballs, including the population center in Texas, do.

I am definitely pulling for ISU, OkSU, and some of the others that the networks have finally figured it out. I've been public for a decade about my hope that those schools stay in the bigtime. And I am someone who absolutely feels like the 32 team mini-NFL some people seem to be hoping for would be a disaster. National champions should usually have 1 loss or none. If I wanted to watch an 8-4 team take on a 7-5 team in a national semifinal I'd watch the NFL.

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2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't have a tweet, but a buddy of mine who listens to Dan Patrick, and Patrick said this morning that his sources have the 4 corners joining in the next couple of weeks.

It seems like a lot more momentum in that direction than the other.

Not sure if already mentioned, but Colorado has scheduled yet another emergency regents meeting on "PAC 12 contracts" for tomorrow.

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14 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Is he wrong though? 

The Big 12 isn’t as valuable to potential media partners as it’s being framed by some. That doesn’t mean the PAC 12 has much choice though if there aren’t any better options. 

I don't really agree. The only framing I'm seeing is that the Big 12 plus some of the old Pac-12 schools is more valuable than the Pac-10 minus USC and UCLA. Nobody is implying that this new Big 12/16 would be pulling in Big 10 or SEC type money.

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't really agree. The only framing I'm seeing is that the Big 12 plus some of the old Pac-12 schools is more valuable than the Pac-10 minus USC and UCLA. Nobody is implying that this new Big 12/16 would be pulling in Big 10 or SEC type money.

I agree it’s more valuable than the PAC 12 minus USC and UCLA but I don’t think that was really his point. 

There are definitely people on the PAC 12 “upheaval” side trying to hype the potential value of the Big 12. 

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21 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't have a tweet, but a buddy of mine who listens to Dan Patrick, and Patrick said this morning that his sources have the 4 corners joining in the next couple of weeks.

It seems like a lot more momentum in that direction than the other.

So basically we ain't merging, but we're gonna take what we want. 

6 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Technically they are only the 3 corners. (no Lobos)

Pondering Anthony Anderson GIF by BET

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't really agree. The only framing I'm seeing is that the Big 12 plus some of the old Pac-12 schools is more valuable than the Pac-10 minus USC and UCLA. Nobody is implying that this new Big 12/16 would be pulling in Big 10 or SEC type money.

Exactly.  The Big 12 media projections are about 50% of the Big 10 and SEC, which seems about right.

And that's a fair bit more than the Pac 12 is getting projected at.

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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I agree it’s more valuable than the PAC 12 minus USC and UCLA but I don’t think that was really his point. 

There are definitely people on the PAC 12 “upheaval” side trying to hype the potential value of the Big 12. 

The problem with the Pac is that no one in the Eastern or Central time zones are tuning in to watch Pac games, especially without USC/UCLA.  By killing that conference and getting some of those games played in conference against teams from other time zones, it spreads out the viewership possibilities.  The Big XII encompassing 3 time zones in its current iteration is going to be a much better locale for $$ than a conference solely consisting of West Coast teams.  That's just how the networks/streamers are analyzing it, and they're correct.  

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2 hours ago, statsman said:

In 2020, the PAC paid $33M per school. Take away USC and UCLA, and they’re looking at $25M?

In 2020, the B12 paid $38M per school. Take away UT and OU, add UH, UCF, Cincy and BYU, and they’re looking at $50M?

How does this work?

Guessing you mean how is the Big 12 going up.   Well, the short story is they're finally taking all of their contracts to bid at the same time in 2025 and their T1 deal that brings in the most per game was massively undervalued due to how old it is.    And while TX/OU did drop a sizable chunk of their value, they were expected to be in the $75-85m range.   Now they'll be in the $50-60m.   They're just starting at a higher level than the Pac overall.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't have a tweet, but a buddy of mine who listens to Dan Patrick, and Patrick said this morning that his sources have the 4 corners joining in the next couple of weeks.

It seems like a lot more momentum in that direction than the other.

I really hope UO and UW are part of it, even if it means holding off for a while. I don't like the idea of adding those 4 hoping that UO and UW would follow. I also hope that the new league's buyout and grant of rights is reasonable so that we can attract UO and UW if they still hope for a Big 10 invite down the road. I think it's time for everyone to accept that any of us would accept a BIG or SEC invite if given, and nobody can truly deny that it would be the obvious decision with the money disparity. It made sense in 2011 when the leagues were still relatively close, but that's over. I don't want to lose out out on UO and UW by demanding an ACC style grant of rights. It's possible that they never get an invite, likely if ND gets its deal with NBC done. So just accept it and hope the new conference is successful.

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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I really hope UO and UW are part of it, even if it means holding off for a while. I don't like the idea of adding those 4 hoping that UO and UW would follow. I also hope that the new league's buyout and grant of rights is reasonable so that we can attract UO and UW if they still hope for a Big 10 invite down the road. I think it's time for everyone to accept that any of us would accept a BIG or SEC invite if given, and nobody can truly deny that it would be the obvious decision with the money disparity. It made sense in 2011 when the leagues were still relatively close, but that's over. I don't want to lose out out on UO and UW by demanding an ACC style grant of rights. It's possible that they never get an invite, likely if ND gets its deal with NBC done. So just accept it and hope the new conference is successful.

I think you just make that clause for everyone.  No special favors.

No one else is getting those offers of course, but I don't want members with special deals.

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5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think you just make that clause for everyone.  No special favors.

No one else is getting those offers of course, but I don't want members with special deals.

Agree. Anything could happen in the future. If they go to 22 each, a bunch of us might go along for the ride. Even if those leagues implement unequal revenues (which I think is inevitable) the mid-tier programs are probably still looking better financially in those leagues. 

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Agree. Anything could happen in the future. If they go to 22 each, a bunch of us might go along for the ride. Even if those leagues implement unequal revenues (which I think is inevitable) the mid-tier programs are probably still looking better financially in those leagues. 

I kinda don't think they go that big, and if they expand again it will be with ACC properties.  They can have anyone in the Big 12 and Pac 12.  They took who they took.  I think it's good to leave that out in our agreement, but I think pining for that position is a bad idea for fans.  It's not likely, and it's just going to create tensions and unhappiness.

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5 hours ago, Gidnik said:

i know this guy is just a fan blogger but if hes even close with these numbers , big yikes.

Well the initial estimates were $30 million per school so that's not far off ($500 million with USC/UCLA, $300 million without).  Someone above was quoting a rumor of $28-$32 million.

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4 hours ago, statsman said:

In 2020, the PAC paid $33M per school. Take away USC and UCLA, and they’re looking at $25M?

In 2020, the B12 paid $38M per school. Take away UT and OU, add UH, UCF, Cincy and BYU, and they’re looking at $50M?

How does this work?

Actually $25 million is about what they are making now.  They had a multi-year contract that averaged about $20 million a year and escalated.  That number is just the media.  The $33 million includes Rose Bowl, CFP, NCAA bb credits and other revenues.

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30 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I really hope UO and UW are part of it, even if it means holding off for a while. I don't like the idea of adding those 4 hoping that UO and UW would follow. I also hope that the new league's buyout and grant of rights is reasonable so that we can attract UO and UW if they still hope for a Big 10 invite down the road. I think it's time for everyone to accept that any of us would accept a BIG or SEC invite if given, and nobody can truly deny that it would be the obvious decision with the money disparity. It made sense in 2011 when the leagues were still relatively close, but that's over. I don't want to lose out out on UO and UW by demanding an ACC style grant of rights. It's possible that they never get an invite, likely if ND gets its deal with NBC done. So just accept it and hope the new conference is successful.

If the other 4 join the Big 12,     you have a Pac 6.  Oregon and Washington have to sue for peace.  Oregon St. and Washington St. are up a creek.  Cal and Stanford can go climb a tree.

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2 hours ago, bullet said:

If the other 4 join the Big 12,     you have a Pac 6.  Oregon and Washington have to sue for peace.  Oregon St. and Washington St. are up a creek.  Cal and Stanford can go climb a tree.

Washington and Oregon will probably make more joining the Big 12 than they would have been making anywhere other than Big 10, which they aren't getting invited to.

They aren't up a creek, they're just likely going to have to associate with schools they think they're above.

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4 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

I suspect that the Big12-PAC talks were killed by a few schools who heard they will get something betteer. 

Oregon and Washington? 

I agree. I thought this would be the hold up. Oregon is going to bounce to the SEC or Big 10 the moment they get an opportunity. Will it happen? 

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