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21 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Publix is actually pretty damn good. Harris Teeter reminds me of Randall’s. Never been to Wegmans. HEB is definitely the best (depending on location)

Publix was one of the few good things about living in Florida.  Great fish/meat selection, cheap prices, could buy a keg up until midnight which was helpful in college.  CSBalert---the founder was in my fraternity (obviously long before me).  

And yes, to the poster a few above this---Aldi is barebones and doesn't offer everything.  That's their schtick.  

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I live a couple of miles away from the Albertsons headquarters so I am curious as to what would happen should this deal actually be approved. I'm already surrounded by both Albertsons and Fred Meyers (Kroger NW brand) as it is so not too sure as to what the actual impact would be. The flagship Albertsons store over he is nice, but the others are pretty basic and overpriced but with a good meat selection including Snake River Farms wagyu. 

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On 10/14/2022 at 11:30 PM, DalTxHornFan said:

There are going to have to be a ton of store sales in the Dallas and Houston markets due to anti-trust issues. The Randall's and Tom Thumb stores bump up right next to Kroger's everywhere in both markets.  Could be a great opportunity for HEB to pick up some locations (when they are open).

I see a lot of store closures coming nationwide and strip mall anchor store closings suck.   Nothing can really fill that space and then the whole strip takes a hit.   We had two Randall's close near me and it took a toll on the businesses near them.  2.5 years later, one of them is still vacant and half of the other space just finally got converted to an Ace Hardware (which is killing it here in Kingwood.)  HEB closed another location also near me when they built a bigger store across the intersection and that space is still vacant 6 years later.  

 

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I don't know how our Randall's survives.  It's the literal half-way point between a higher-end HEB and a Trader Joe's.  I've never seen more than ten people at a time in there.  Nothing could ever possibly takeover the massive spot though, so I still pop in there now and again to avoid the urban blight.  

Anybody know what's happening to the one down on William Cannon?  

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The amount of industry knowledge earlier in this thread was......breathtaking.

You have to ignore the national share number as Kroger is one of the very few national pure play grocers.  (For some stupid reason, Walmart and Costco are not considered "grocery stores.")  Most are big regional chains like HEB, Publix, Meijer, etc.  In those particular regions, there is still plenty of competition except for some west coast markets.

Albertston's today is basically the merging of two shitty chains in Alberston's and Safeway.  This lets Kroger expand on top of Ralph's in the west and Kroger is a well run company.  Almost all of their stores in good areas are nice.

Regulatory pushback may be from the supplier angle.  This significantly reduces the number of retail customers.

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WalMart and Target are "Mass Merch."

Costco and Sams are "Club."

"Reducing the number of retailer customers" also improves their internal staffing expenses to a certain degree, with a likely reduction at the higher levels where KRO and ALB overlap. It might also lead to lighter customer call teams by suppliers, if they follow suit there.

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1 minute ago, slorch said:

WalMart and Target are "Mass Merch."

Costco and Sams are "Club."

"Reducing the number of retailer customers" also improves their internal staffing expenses to a certain degree, with a likely reduction at the higher levels where KRO and ALB overlap. It might also lead to lighter customer call teams by suppliers, if they follow suit there.

Yes, thanks for clearing that up.  I had no idea Costco and Sam's Club were clubs.  They all move a shitload of food.  Costco is the biggest wine retailer in the country.

 

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3 hours ago, Native Horn said:

Is that the rough looking chick ranch hand from Yellowstone?

Just came in to laugh at anybody who doesn't have three H-E-Bs within six miles of their house.  Fire away.

Just checked on google maps. 7 within 6 miles, plus a central market 2 miles away. 

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dammit, you made me do it too.  Yep, I show 7 within 6 miles.  2 central markets within 7 miles.  Plus a brand new HEB going in on just across Town Lake from us.  

With this acquisition, I expect multiple Randall's in the Austin area to fold in the next few years.

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Costco is the one that gets lost in the discussion.  They're twice the size of Sam's Club with about the same number of clubs, although I think they have a bit more now.  About $230B in revenue compared to $138B at Kroger, in comparison.  I know it's a different model and they sell a lot of GM but they sell a shitload of food and the entire chain is a cash machine.

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49 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

the entire chain is a cash machine.

I love Costco. It it a huge difference feeding my family shopping there than shopping at any grocery chain. Yes, there are fill in needs and the selection is limited. I am almost never disappointed with their meat, produce or other grocery products.  Can’t say that at others.

 

However, given that their entire net is essentially from membership fees I wouldn’t call them a cash machine.

To be honest I don’t know how they pull it off given they have made significant investments in owning the manufacturing for poultry and hot dogs, just to sell the items ($1.50 hotdogs and $5 rotisserie) at cost.

Edited by Incredulity
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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

I love Costco. It it a huge difference feeding my family shopping there than shopping at any grocery chain. Yes, there are fill in needs and the selection is limited. I am almost never disappointed with their meat, produce or other grocery products.  Can’t say that at others.

 

However, given that their entire net is essentially from membership fees I wouldn’t call them a cash machine.

To be honest I don’t know how they pull it off given they have made significant investments in owning the manufacturing for poultry and hot dogs, just to sell the items ($1.50 hotdogs and $5 rotisserie) at cost.

They've produced double digit comps on top of double digit comps for three years now.  They're a cash machine.

Rotisserie chicken might be the most important item in all of consumer retail.

Edited by Aqua Buddha
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8 hours ago, YGIFS said:

I don't know how our Randall's survives.  It's the literal half-way point between a higher-end HEB and a Trader Joe's.  I've never seen more than ten people at a time in there.  Nothing could ever possibly takeover the massive spot though, so I still pop in there now and again to avoid the urban blight.  

Anybody know what's happening to the one down on William Cannon?  

Hobby Lobby 

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10 hours ago, YGIFS said:

dammit, you made me do it too.  Yep, I show 7 within 6 miles.  2 central markets within 7 miles.  Plus a brand new HEB going in on just across Town Lake from us.  

With this acquisition, I expect multiple Randall's in the Austin area to fold in the next few years.

10 in 6 miles, but 8 miles to the closest Central Market.

Yeah Austin seems like a market that they need to over invest in quality locations (like Mesa/Spicewood Springs or the one in Westlake on Bee Caves) and not quantity, they need to throw in the towel in locations where they are in heavy competition against HEB (like Braker/183/Jollyville where they are basically across the street from each other).

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11 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

Kroger and Albertsons merging? Cute.

I'm still sore from Albertsons ruining Jewel Osco.

Yeah last time I was home in Chicago, I ran into a Jewel-Osco.  Don't know what I was expecting, but it was a far cry from how I remember them.  Nevermind what happened to Dominick's.  

Other than West Texas, we know this is largely a nothingburger for most Texans.  But this will drive out suppliers, drive up retail costs in some markets, and the real estate implications are wide-reaching.  The 10k-50k small cities that have two supermarkets and a wal-mart, and are about to have only one supermarket and a free-standing wal-mart...that's gonna drag the whole strip center down with it when that second pure grocer is consolidated.  I guess start shorting those supermarket-heavy REITs of certain flags and invest in whatever construction company retrofits buildings for your local community college district.  Unless OfficeMax and Circuit City are lying in wait to make their big comeback.  I guess sub-divide, TI overhauls, and shorter-term releases.  Most floor plates of these sized grocers are way too big for Aldi, but they could take over half of an old Randall's.  They fill in the lower tranche of the grocery experience, they don't really go head to head with Safeway or Kroger in most markets. 

One thing Albertson's and Safeway have proven time and time again, if it means consolidating 2 50-person staffs into 1 75-person staff for savings, plus streamlining supply and logistics and local marketing...they give zero fucks about breaking a lease early (provided they didn't just 10/20 year reup earlier that week.  

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It's not going to change West Texas that much, with the exception of a likely stronger customer loyalty program( coupons) and generally improved private label products.

There is ZERO chance they take down the United brand outside the store, even if it is but a shell of what it once meant on the inside.

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Yeah last time I was home in Chicago, I ran into a Jewel-Osco.  Don't know what I was expecting, but it was a far cry from how I remember them.  Nevermind what happened to Dominick's.  
Other than West Texas, we know this is largely a nothingburger for most Texans.  But this will drive out suppliers, drive up retail costs in some markets, and the real estate implications are wide-reaching.  The 10k-50k small cities that have two supermarkets and a wal-mart, and are about to have only one supermarket and a free-standing wal-mart...that's gonna drag the whole strip center down with it when that second pure grocer is consolidated.  I guess start shorting those supermarket-heavy REITs of certain flags and invest in whatever construction company retrofits buildings for your local community college district.  Unless OfficeMax and Circuit City are lying in wait to make their big comeback.  I guess sub-divide, TI overhauls, and shorter-term releases.  Most floor plates of these sized grocers are way too big for Aldi, but they could take over half of an old Randall's.  They fill in the lower tranche of the grocery experience, they don't really go head to head with Safeway or Kroger in most markets. 
One thing Albertson's and Safeway have proven time and time again, if it means consolidating 2 50-person staffs into 1 75-person staff for savings, plus streamlining supply and logistics and local marketing...they give zero fucks about breaking a lease early (provided they didn't just 10/20 year reup earlier that week.  

Jewel was always a step below Dominick’s. It’s a shame how it was driven into the ground. Apparently, Mariano’s(owned by Kroger) is the new Dominick’s.
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6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I would be very interested to hear the facts behind this. 

 

Simple loss-leader?  I know Costco,and others, sell a fuck ton of them.   

Major, MAJOR, trip driver.  Maybe the top trip driver.  For $5-$7, you can feed a family of four and it gets you into the store.  If fewer than four people, the rest is highly usable for other meals throughout the week.

Costco has held firm at $4.99, which has forced Sam's to do that same.  (Both of their chickens are also bigger than WMT or whoever.)  Yes, they're both losing money on them but they don't care.  Also, with membership businesses like Costco and Sam's, they have a complete view of the market basket and they know what's being bought with the chickens.

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42 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I would be very interested to hear the facts behind this. 

 

Simple loss-leader?  I know Costco,and others, sell a fuck ton of them.   

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Say no more:

Well

 

The economics of Costco rotisserie chicken

Costco’s popular chickens have stayed fixed at $4.99 for more than a decade — even in the face of raging inflation. But it’s come at a cost.

chicken consumption
Costco chicken sales
Chicken prices alongside inflation
loss leader
Costco store layout
value signaling
supply chain challenges
vertical integration
Costco and customer feedback
 

 

 

 
 
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On 10/16/2022 at 10:10 AM, Neonmoon said:

Publix is actually pretty damn good. Harris Teeter reminds me of Randall’s. Never been to Wegmans. HEB is definitely the best (depending on location)

 

On 10/16/2022 at 10:33 AM, Post Oak said:

Had no idea there were that many Aldis in the US. I didn't mind stopping in from time to time when I lived closer.  Not HEB obviously but I like some of their offerings and I wish the prototype of a smaller neighborhood grocery store was more prevalent in Central Texas

Here in my neighborhood, I've got 2 nearby

On 10/16/2022 at 11:34 AM, Neonmoon said:

I’m just not a fan of Aldi. I understand the appeal. It is small with limited options. It’s great if you just need a few items and don’t want to shop at a convenience store but its bare bones. 

disagree.  Cheapest milk, eggs, cheese, etc.    Decent produce at great prices.  Cheap bread.

On 10/17/2022 at 7:14 AM, YGIFS said:

Publix was one of the few good things about living in Florida.  Great fish/meat selection, cheap prices, could buy a keg up until midnight which was helpful in college.  CSBalert---the founder was in my fraternity (obviously long before me).  

And yes, to the poster a few above this---Aldi is barebones and doesn't offer everything.  That's their schtick.  

GF's family lives in FL, and yeah, I'm a fan of Publix.  My son's old town in AL even had one.    

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23 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I have an HEB 27 miles away and one 62 miles away. 

27 miles ain't bad.  My in-laws are about 65 miles from the nearest full service grocery store (two Dillons, owned by Kroger & a Super Wal-Mart).  They have a handful of Dollar General/Dollar Stores within 20 miles of them but they hate 'em.  There's no way the "big city" near them can keep supporting two Dillons in the shadow of a Wal-Mart.  I'd bet one of 'em is on the chopping block by Kroger to off-set the Safeway/Albertson compression.  I think every MSA market between the Mississippi and the Pacific Coast states is gonna shed Kroger's and keep more Safeway/Albertson product while Kroger continues their established name recognition in the midwest, mid-Atlantic, mid-South, and west coastal stores.  

And then like electrical grids, there's Texas on its own.  I dunno, lot depends on what HEB does I suppose.  One thing I know is Kroger and Safeway don't have the real estate prowess of HEB-which is a real estate company that happens to make great tortillas when it's open.  I also didn't realize how many Kroger's the Houston MSA has.  

Maybe we should reboot Linens 'n Things to take over all these upcoming supermarket vacancies.

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On 10/18/2022 at 1:54 PM, Incredulity said:

google came up with this

https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-costco-rotisserie-chicken/

 

Costco built a $450M chicken plant in Nebraska to supply itself chickens.  If they lost 30-40M on chickens in 15 it has to be 3-4X that much now, excluding any growth in volume.

4.jpg

They lose a few bucks on a yard bird, them make an extra couple hundred on a jar of pickles the size of a basketball and a 72 pack of eggs, and a Cartier watch

They are also one of the biggest pizza chains around.  

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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

They lose a few bucks on a yard bird, them make an extra couple hundred on a jar of pickles the size of a basketball and a 72 pack of eggs, and a Cartier watch

They are also one of the biggest pizza chains around.  

Oh, I get it.  I just don't get it.  

Especially the owning the manufacturing part.   But, more power to them.  That's the beauty of capitalism, you got the money and the balls you can try to skin the cat any fucking way you want.

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4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Oh, I get it.  I just don't get it.  

Especially the owning the manufacturing part.   But, more power to them.  That's the beauty of capitalism, you got the money and the balls you can try to skin the cat any fucking way you want.

OK, now I want pics

image.png.ce0637d8eed49998922a764fb6b5daa0.png

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On 10/18/2022 at 6:35 PM, YGIFS said:

I live near HEB's in Texas as stated just above my post is a humblebrag?  Or that i live across Town Lake from the new HEB?  Which means I live in middle-class South Austin, not Tarrytown.  Learn some geography, Mr. Lippy ;)  

Stratford Drive is across the lake from the new HEB. That's middle class housing?

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Okay, I don’t literally live right across the river.  Certainly don’t live on Stratford.  I wish.  Think more by an IHOP and a Trader Joe’s.  Fucking baller territory.  oh, we also got us one of the shittier Panera’s in the franchise and a pawn shop complete with bars on the windows.  We is rollin’….

but we do live close to a bunch of great grocery stores which is nice.  

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This is the kind of thing I was thinking of with respect to local market issues.  There will be some store dispositions in Dallas and Houston.

Kroger-Albertsons Antitrust Review Likely to Focus on Local Store Overlap

Authorities who scrutinized other grocery deals tended to examine local market share in specific regions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kroger-albertsons-antitrust-review-likely-to-focus-on-local-store-overlap-11666344601?mod=hp_lista_pos5

Sorry if you can't see this article due to WSJ paywall, but if you don't subscribe to WSJ, you may want to reconsider some of your life choices. 

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54 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

This is the kind of thing I was thinking of with respect to local market issues.  There will be some store dispositions in Dallas and Houston.

Kroger-Albertsons Antitrust Review Likely to Focus on Local Store Overlap

Authorities who scrutinized other grocery deals tended to examine local market share in specific regions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kroger-albertsons-antitrust-review-likely-to-focus-on-local-store-overlap-11666344601?mod=hp_lista_pos5

Sorry if you can't see this article due to WSJ paywall, but if you don't subscribe to WSJ, you may want to reconsider some of your life choices. 

Sorry sir, I get all my grocery store news from my Wednesday mailbox circulars, the Epoch Times, and a Mister Ronan Sinatra ;) 

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On 10/20/2022 at 6:23 PM, YGIFS said:

Okay, I don’t literally live right across the river.  Certainly don’t live on Stratford.  I wish.  Think more by an IHOP and a Trader Joe’s.  Fucking baller territory.  oh, we also got us one of the shittier Panera’s in the franchise and a pawn shop complete with bars on the windows.  We is rollin’….

but we do live close to a bunch of great grocery stores which is nice.  

It’s sounds like you live in Westlake or Barton Hills but your description earlier made it sound like Rollingwood. Still if you own it’s million dollar house.

Also we have only used the Randalls during the freeze. I hate that Trader Joe’s as well.

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Nope, don’t live in West Lake Hills or Rollingwood.  But those are two cities that contain grocery stores we frequent due to proximity. 

curious why you don’t like that Trader Joe’s?  Is it just that one in particular or the whole chain?  

That Randall’s was our go-to during freeze as well.  and I spent a year of Covid waiting on Sundays at 8am to enter Trader Joe’s.  But they were always helpful and happy during a very challenging time.  I prefer the HEB on 360 but depending on traffic, it can take me 20 minutes just to get there.  And it’s too far/dangerous to bike there.  The one on Lake Austin Blvd will be within biking distance but I rarely leave HEB a small enough order to fit in a backpack.  
 

alls i Know is the yoga ass competition between HEB 360 and HEB Tarrytown is gonna be fierce and we are all winners.  

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Well one of 'em is still under construction and you don't want to see that crew in yoga pants.  I'll sneak some pics next time I'm at the 360 one.  

Randall's by us is all olds, though I used to see Terrance Malick in there every now and again.  

I wonder what the Kroger-Albertsons  connection will mean in other areas of Asstin.  

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4 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Nope, don’t live in West Lake Hills or Rollingwood.  But those are two cities that contain grocery stores we frequent due to proximity. 

curious why you don’t like that Trader Joe’s?  Is it just that one in particular or the whole chain?  

That Randall’s was our go-to during freeze as well.  and I spent a year of Covid waiting on Sundays at 8am to enter Trader Joe’s.  But they were always helpful and happy during a very challenging time.  I prefer the HEB on 360 but depending on traffic, it can take me 20 minutes just to get there.  And it’s too far/dangerous to bike there.  The one on Lake Austin Blvd will be within biking distance but I rarely leave HEB a small enough order to fit in a backpack.  
 

alls i Know is the yoga ass competition between HEB 360 and HEB Tarrytown is gonna be fierce and we are all winners.  

It started with the waiting and now it has to do with how busy it always is. 

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