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2023 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - Time to Start Thinking About Winning Again


BigOrange1

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in the last three drafts the rockets have added 9 first rounders:

jalen green, alperen sengun, usman garuba, josh christopher, jabari smith, tari eason, tyty washington, amen thompson, cam whitmore

add a couple of vets and let's start developing this thing.

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5 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

in the last three drafts the rockets have added 9 first rounders:

jalen green, alperen sengun, usman garuba, josh christopher, jabari smith, tari eason, tyty washington, amen thompson, cam whitmore

add a couple of vets and let's start developing this thing.

I get that we need to spend cap dollars, but really if Ime's coaching can develop those guys, I'm fine with that rotation next year. They should be entertaining as hell, Really, they only need a backup C that can defend the rim and be a rim-runner. Ideally, Capella would be that guy.

Thompson, Washington

Green, Christopher

Whimore, Eason

Smith, Garuba

Sengun

That is a hell of developmental rotation.

 

Porter, Tate, and Martin can all get the fuck out.

Edited by HtownHorn
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3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I get that we need to spend cap dollars, but really if Ime's coaching can develop those guys, I'm fine with that rotation next year. They should be entertaining as hell, Really, they only need a backup C that can defend the rim and be a rim-runner. Ideally, Capella would be that guy.

Thompson, Washington

Green, Christopher

Whimore, Eason

Smith, Garuba

Sengun

That is a hell of developmental rotation.

 

Porter, Tate, and Martin can all get the fuck out.

i still want a veteran pg to run the show for a couple of years.  i feel like thompson is gonna take some time and i want jalen and jabari to play with a real pg.  fred van vleet on a 2-3 year deal would be great by me.

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1 minute ago, Planet Houston said:

Also, sorry for floating something that surely has been discussed - I don’t tune into this thread very much - but I hope we make a real run at FVV. 

I mean, I’d rather we not. 
I still want us to make a run at Zion.  I guess they are holding onto him in NO?  

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There are people who are pretty sharp saying Amen is already a top 5 athlete in the league. If he has any kind of work ethic then he could be a great pick. Hopefully Cam takes this as a wake up call.

In 5 years the Rockets could easily have the 1 or 2 rated draft for this class (#2 if wemby develops is still great).

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4 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

definitely have the money, but recently it sounds like harden probably isn't coming back.

Is that because we aren’t offering him the full contract or because he doesn’t want to come I wonder?  
because those 9 guys you mentioned should be the only guys on our roster right now, so you might as well give Harden the entire max. He’s the best FA in the market right now and you have to spend the money somewhere. Rather on him than  Tate and Porter and Martin. 

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I just don’t want to see the front office waste our cap space on a guy that we’re locked into for 4/5 years that doesn’t really move the needle. If they can’t find a star to come I’d seriously consider signing a couple of vets to one year deals and playing the season with young guys and some vets to help them grow 

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Feels like the team is a lot of good young pieces, but no stars. Need a couple to emerge. 

Well, Booker and Fox were bagged on as good stats bad team guys until they weren’t.  I am not saying Green is either, but he has that potential.  Or he is a worse Bradley Beal or better Jerami Grant.  We just don’t know yet.  (Ignore positions….  You get my point).  
 

I like adding Harden if it’s 3 years or less which he probably won’t do, and Lopez, too.  I am meh on FVV but I am sure he’d add value.  

Thoughts on Middleton? Or I guess he is redundant.  

All that said, with the way the draft came out for us and the Brooklyn picks, we ought to also be in the business of any star demanding a trade in the next year or so with no one (yet) being untouchable.   

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14 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Well, Booker and Fox were bagged on as good stats bad team guys until they weren’t.  I am not saying Green is either, but he has that potential.  Or he is a worse Bradley Beal or better Jerami Grant.  We just don’t know yet.  (Ignore positions….  You get my point).  
 

I like adding Harden if it’s 3 years or less which he probably won’t do, and Lopez, too.  I am meh on FVV but I am sure he’d add value.  

Thoughts on Middleton? Or I guess he is redundant.  

All that said, with the way the draft came out for us and the Brooklyn picks, we ought to also be in the business of any star demanding a trade in the next year or so with no one (yet) being untouchable.   

Good post. 
You do 4 to get a harden (imo) because what’s your alternative?  You don’t have a place where many stars want to be, and he’s clearly the best guy up in FA, and he makes you much better. Eventually, that 4th year becomes an expiring and those have value in the last year- as we saw with Westbrook for the lakers getting dealt off pieces that they used to retool and thrive. 
hard no on Middleton. He’s a complimentary piece that’s going to get paid like a star and we don’t have the code for him to add value to, plus he’s a bit long in the tooth. 2 years from now if the pieces develop?  Sure.  But not now.  
we need the right disgruntled stat. 


zion makes sense to me because he could be the best player on a title team (looking sadly more likely he will bust) 

no thanks to Dame (too small- shitty defense- won’t put us over the top) 

If LBJ gets too old/wants out I could see Davis making a lot of sense. Something like Smith and another young guy plus all our draft picks?   The Lakers figure retooling makes sense and decide to move on with the rest of our Brooklyn picks and 28, 30 and some swaps. That would be next year, obviously. 

Ja would be one more gun charge away from me “accidentally” butt dialing Memphis and concern rolling them/asking them how it’s going and then listening to see if there’s an opportunity. 

I might call Minn and ask about Gobert. 

I might call Clippers on Paul George and/or Kawal Leonard. 

basically the point is if you want to win a title you need a top 5 player and likely another top 10-15 guy to go along with that. You get those guys from winning the draft (we didn’t do that but it was worth trying) being a FA destination (we aren’t) or buying low because they are in some way a distressed asset and the team wants out on them. 
Gobert sort of sucks but he could be the energies fulcrum of a decent defense (with Smith) and the Rockets have enough offense punch/scoring. 
 

it’s really really really hard to win a title in the NBA without that transcendent player and the Rockets don’t have them right now. Sucks to suck on the lotto. 
Boy I am jealous of SA and OKC right now. 

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49 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Good post. 
You do 4 to get a harden (imo) because what’s your alternative?  You don’t have a place where many stars want to be, and he’s clearly the best guy up in FA, and he makes you much better. Eventually, that 4th year becomes an expiring and those have value in the last year- as we saw with Westbrook for the lakers getting dealt off pieces that they used to retool and thrive. 
hard no on Middleton. He’s a complimentary piece that’s going to get paid like a star and we don’t have the code for him to add value to, plus he’s a bit long in the tooth. 2 years from now if the pieces develop?  Sure.  But not now.  
we need the right disgruntled stat. 


zion makes sense to me because he could be the best player on a title team (looking sadly more likely he will bust) 

no thanks to Dame (too small- shitty defense- won’t put us over the top) 

If LBJ gets too old/wants out I could see Davis making a lot of sense. Something like Smith and another young guy plus all our draft picks?   The Lakers figure retooling makes sense and decide to move on with the rest of our Brooklyn picks and 28, 30 and some swaps. That would be next year, obviously. 

Ja would be one more gun charge away from me “accidentally” butt dialing Memphis and concern rolling them/asking them how it’s going and then listening to see if there’s an opportunity. 

I might call Minn and ask about Gobert. 

I might call Clippers on Paul George and/or Kawal Leonard. 

basically the point is if you want to win a title you need a top 5 player and likely another top 10-15 guy to go along with that. You get those guys from winning the draft (we didn’t do that but it was worth trying) being a FA destination (we aren’t) or buying low because they are in some way a distressed asset and the team wants out on them. 
Gobert sort of sucks but he could be the energies fulcrum of a decent defense (with Smith) and the Rockets have enough offense punch/scoring. 
 

it’s really really really hard to win a title in the NBA without that transcendent player and the Rockets don’t have them right now. Sucks to suck on the lotto. 
Boy I am jealous of SA and OKC right now. 

i think your timeline is off.  i agree with you about harden but that's because i think he's a good bridge guy and these young guys need someone who can run an offense.  but as to the rest of the guys you mentioned (outside of zion and ja), you're thinking too old in terms of the guys you want to bring in.

i also disagree re: winning the draft.  we obviously didn't get the big prize in wemby, but i'm not ready to say that one of the three top-4 picks on the roster won't turn out to be a star.  it just is gonna take some time (which goes back to my point about the timeline).

i also disagree re: free agency.  sure, we aren't a destination right now, but if jalen green turns out to be devin booker i don't think we'll have trouble attracting good free agents.  most of the players in the league love houston.

38 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Hawks are in cap hell, they may be looking to shed contracts at bargain prices.

if that's the case, let's send them tate and a couple of 2nds and call it a deal.

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1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

i think your timeline is off.  i agree with you about harden but that's because i think he's a good bridge guy and these young guys need someone who can run an offense.  but as to the rest of the guys you mentioned (outside of zion and ja), you're thinking too old in terms of the guys you want to bring in.

i also disagree re: winning the draft.  we obviously didn't get the big prize in wemby, but i'm not ready to say that one of the three top-4 picks on the roster won't turn out to be a star.  it just is gonna take some time (which goes back to my point about the timeline).

i also disagree re: free agency.  sure, we aren't a destination right now, but if jalen green turns out to be devin booker i don't think we'll have trouble attracting good free agents.  most of the players in the league love houston.

if that's the case, let's send them tate and a couple of 2nds and call it a deal.

I don't think we really disagree. I think Houston is fine as a FA destination, but not for the absolute apex predator. Lets just say in Giannis is on the market I'd expect him to go 5-8 places before Houston.  That's what I mean. If it's a Middleton on the market?  Sure.  That dude will sign with Houston if the money is right- we aren't Cleveland or Minnesota or Charlotte or something like that.  

And yeah- Harden to me is a bridge guy that gets you winning 50 games, in the playoffs, and then you flip his contract in year 4 for a couple pieces that will hopefully have you fully engaged in a win a title moment. That's my timeline for trying to win a title- 4 years.  Is yours significantly different.  

I think if you got Kawai and George you could be in the win a title now mode (if they are healthy). That's a low probability bet, but that's sort of my point- winning a title is a low probability bet by its nature (1/30 chance).  

Maybe one of the guys will be a star.  My definition of a star that matters isn't- hey- this guy made 4 all star games though, it's "hey this guy as a first team/2nd team all NBA guy for 1/2 a decade and if things break right you can win a title."

In the last 15 years this is the list of guys in that stratosphere:

Lebron, KD, Steph, Russ, Leonard, Joker, Luka, CP3, Harden, Blake, Embiid, George Dame, Giannis, Howard, Tatum

Dame, Blake and George is mostly 3rd teams (but they had more than 5 each) and Luka/Tatum is a bit early on the 1/2 a decade but I think everyone agrees that they will get there.

 

Titles:  Lebron-4, Steph- 4, KD- 2, Russ-0 (but did play for one in a finals), Leonard- 1, Joker- 1, Luka 0- but did make a couple conference finals, CP3- 0 (clearly second best team two years), Harden 0- (played for one, an injury away from another).  Giannis- 1, Embiid- 0 (eastern semis being furthest advancement is kind of gross.  Every team had one of those guys I mentioned on it (at least) going all the way back to 2011 Dallas. Obviously, Dirk was one of those guys in his prime.

 

I don't see anyone on the Rockets current roster at that level of star wattage right now, but there are only 10 or 15 guys at a time that fit those molds that are active at any time, and that's even too big a number when you consider that some of them are washed (LBJ, Russ, CP3) and some of them are on the come and not there yet (Tatum, Luka etc).  

Maybe I'm wrong and one of the guys on the current roster turns into that.  I don't see it. But I could be surprised.  

 

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