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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
18 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

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Haven't y'all noticed that Trump wasn't really gloating about the debate? Have y'all seen what undecided voters have said about it? Minorities have mostly been angry about whatever Trump meant by "black jobs" and most other undecideds already thought Biden was too old, so him being old didn't really change anything. This freakout is almost entirely among the center-left who finally realized we're in for a real fight, which was always the case and a better debate from Biden wouldn't have changed that.

The "most of the electorate thinks Biden is old as hell - too old to be POTUS - and saw exactly what they expected from both candidates" is really the one line of cope I tend to buy.

And the media tailspin surrounding it screams Beltway bubble bursting. NYT is a great example. I don't necessarily think today's NYT story on Biden is bad reporting, but running with that as the top story and the complete saturation of Biden takes in its editorial section over the fucking bender SCOTUS has been on over the past two business days is a choice that signifies their worldview just got rocked.

Posted
29 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

LOL at anyone thinking Biden is going to step aside now.

I know he isn’t but a girl can dream… Dems are their own worst enemy forever and always 

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Posted (edited)

Biden should not have sought a second term, for the good of the country. No doubt he did what he thought best but he miscalculated and the consequences are dire.
As I see it, there are four paths remaining to prevent Donald Trump from returning to office.  Two could work. Two are unlikely to succeed. The one that has the greatest chance of success is the least likely, and the most likely scenario is the least likely to succeed.  They are as follows:

Scenario #1, Trial by Combat-

 Joe Biden gives a major, prime time speech announcing that serving our nation as president has been an honor, and after 52 years of public service the time has come for a new generation to lead. Thus, he will decline the nomination of the democratic party and release his delegates. He urges the party to allow the delegates to the convention to choose their nominee, and in the meantime will focus his energies on the job at hand without an endorsement. 
This scenario combines high drama with a late schedule to create spell binding televised drama, replete with gossip, fringe characters, high comedy, and so on. In the interim period, the GOP would be stuck at idle and in the dark, forced to lash out wildly without a clear target to attack. They would try, obviously, but the result would be high expense and little to show for it.
At the end, a clear winner emerges in a big, spectacular rite of public unity. No matter who it is, they have high credibility, momentum, high approval, sympathy, and the attention of the press and the public. They also have the leverage to demand a debate with Trump, with a live audience. The legitimate contenders here would be Pete, Harris, Whitmer, Newsom and Pritzger. My guess is that Pritzger, Pete and Whitmer all fall in behind Harris with Biden ceremonially endorsing at the end and Pete winning the Veepstakes. Whoever it is, the winner emerges with a 75% chance of winning. 

Scenario #2, The King is Dead -  Biden gives a major, prime time speech tearfully confessing that due to his failing health he is no longer able to fulfill the office of president. Harris takes office immediately. Harris addresses a joint session of congress the next night humbly asking for the support of the nation and to pray for President Biden who deserved better, after 52 years of service to the public than to by dragged through ash for the crime of getting old.
In his name, then, she lays out a bold agenda, including a public payer healthcare system, reform of drug laws, a  nationwide high speed rail system that will begin by connecting El Paso, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Houston, and resolute opposition to Russian aggression.  As long as she has anything to say about it, the fortress of Democracy will remain just that.  Or something like that - as an incumbent, she wields immense prestige and credibility, and has a 60% chance of winning, despite some baggage.


Scenario #3, Succession - Biden declines nomination, pledges delegates to Harris. This is a very weak hand for her to play and the optics are terrible, but at least she's not Joe Biden and a majority of the voters are scared shitless. If she avoids major gaffes, she's probably got a 40% chance of winning. 

Scenario #4, Ahab and Nemesis - Biden stays in. the party rallies around him. He does the best he can. It would take a miracle for him to win at this point and even if he does, how long does he last? At best, he's looking at a 20-25% chance of winning this election and what happens next could be very ugly even if he does.  
 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

I went and watched a good chunk of the Howard stern interview from just under 2 months ago and feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the last few pages of this thread. I know we've all got a recency bias but there's no way he's declined that much in the last 7 weeks.  I'm inclined to think the performance was down to some combination of cold meds, too much debate prep, and the thing being at 9 pm Eastern. 

I tend to agree. All the appearances both before and after have been nothing like that. There also was a real difference once he started talking shit to Trump instead of trying to get in pre-canned facts and figures.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

We haven't even talked about how undemocratic it would be to change candidates after the presumptive nominee won all of the primaries with actual votes.

I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, elfenix said:

I went and watched a good chunk of the Howard stern interview from just under 2 months ago and feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the last few pages of this thread. I know we've all got a recency bias but there's no way he's declined that much in the last 7 weeks.  I'm inclined to think the performance was down to some combination of cold meds, too much debate prep, and the thing being at 9 pm Eastern. 

He's had at least two public appearances since then and looked fine for his age. But don't let that get in the way of a good ole fashioned "trump is bad, but...."

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Biden should not have sought a second term, for the good of the country. No doubt he did what he thought best but he miscalculated and the consequences are dire.
As I see it, there are four paths remaining to prevent Donald Trump from returning to office.  Two could work. Two are unlikely to succeed. The one that has the greatest chance of success is the least likely, and the most likely scenario is the least likely to succeed.  They are as follows:

Scenario #1, Trial by Combat-

 Joe Biden gives a major, prime time speech announcing that serving our nation as president has been an honor, and after 52 years of public service the time has come for a new generation to lead. Thus, he will decline the nomination of the democratic party and release his delegates. He urges the party to allow the delegates to the convention to choose their nominee, and in the meantime will focus his energies on the job at hand. 
This scenario combines high drama with a late schedule to create spell binding televised drama, replete with gossip, fringe characters, high comedy, and so on. In the interim period, the GOP would be stuck at idle and in the dark, forced to lash out wildly without a clear target to attack. They would try, obviously, but the result would be high expense and little to show for it.
At the end, a clear winner emerges in a big, spectacular rite of public unity. No matter who it is, they have high credibility, momentum, high approval, sympathy, and the attention of the press and the public. They also have the leverage to demand a debate with Trump, with a live audience. The legitimate contenders here would be Pete, Harris, Whitmer, Newsom and Pritzger. My guess is that Pritzger, Pete and Whitmer all fall in behind Harris, with Pete winning the Veepstakes. Whoever it is, the winner emerges with a 75% chance of winning. 

Scenario #2, Tragedy -  Biden gives a major, prime time speech tearfully confessing that due to his failing health he is no longer able to fulfill the office of president. Harris takes office immediately. Harris addresses a joint session of congress the next night humbly asking for the support of the nation and to pray for President Biden who deserved better, after 52 years of service to the public. In his name, then, she lays out a bold agenda, including a public payer healthcare system, reform of drug laws, a  nationwide high speed rail system that will begin by connecting El Paso, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Houston, and resolute opposition to Russian aggression.  As long as she has anything to say about it, the fortress of Democracy will remain just that.  Or something like that - as an incumbent, she wields immense prestige and credibility, and has a 60% chance of winning, despite some baggage.


Scenario #3, Succession - Biden declines nomination, pledges delegates to Harris. This is a very weak hand for her to play and the optics are terrible, but at least she's not Joe Biden and a majority of the voters are scared shitless. If she avoids major gaffes, she's probably got a 40% chance of winning. 

Scenario #4, Ahab and Nemesis - Biden stays in. the party rallies around him. He does the best he can. It would take a miracle for him to win at this point and even if he does, how long does he last? At best, he's looking at a 20-25% chance of winning this election and what happens next could be very ugly even if he does.  
 

image.thumb.png.51abe38f013f9d450e32c6bda93ed3f1.png

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Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.

Never forget that 2016 was seen as “undemocratic” because the DNC favored a lifelong Democrat instead of a guy who is an independent and only shows up to be a Dem when he runs for election. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.

Just because they can do all that stuff doesn’t means it’s not undemocratic 

Posted
12 minutes ago, elfenix said:

I went and watched a good chunk of the Howard stern interview from just under 2 months ago and feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the last few pages of this thread. I know we've all got a recency bias but there's no way he's declined that much in the last 7 weeks.  I'm inclined to some combination of cold meds, too much debate prep, and the thing being at 9 pm Eastern. 

It was 100% the time thing. He looked fine the next morning. I'm also wondering if the whole all of our bases in Europe going on alert like two days later may have some connection as to why he would have been mentally exhausted at debate time. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, elfenix said:

I went and watched a good chunk of the Howard stern interview from just under 2 months ago and feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the last few pages of this thread. I know we've all got a recency bias but there's no way he's declined that much in the last 7 weeks.  I'm inclined to think the performance was down to some combination of cold meds, too much debate prep, and the thing being at 9 pm Eastern. 

I hope this is correct (though, "it was past his bedtime" doesn't help matters much). I have to believe that his team wouldn't have possibly let him walk on that stage if they thought for a second that what we saw was a very possible outcome. He's obviously in noticeable decline, but hopefully not a free fall.

But, now he's left himself with no margin for error. I think everyone (among those with any chance of voting for him) will give him the opportunity to prove that it was just a really, really, really bad night, but he'll have to keep proving it over and over again until November.

Posted
5 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

do you also own a timeshare?

but seriously, this "simple" take is so fucking infuriating. it has never been more true than today that a vote for "neither of these guys" is a vote for trump. straight up. and I feel this take to be fairly disingenuous because the part most people are focusing on in the debate happened in the very beginning and Biden righted the ship as the debate progressed. It still wasn't great, but he wasn't Mitch McConnell'ing it and freezing for a full minute. and unless you're a doctor, gtfo with the I'm a brain expert take and I know what senility looks like. But, sure, we're once again faced with a choice of a "a candidate I don't like a whole lot" and the fucking devil incarnate who is hell bent on installing a dictatorship. same same. ffs.

I'm voting for RFKjr in protest of both of these candidates.  My hopes are that he garners enough support that 3rd party candidates might have a chance in the future. 

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Posted

There’s a scenario where Biden delivers a surprise speech on Thursday. One where he boasts about his administrations accomplishments and then announces, under the triumphant backdrop of fireworks, that he is stepping aside from the election race for the good of the country. That he’s heard the cry from the nation for the next generation of leadership and he can think of no one better than his running mate to lead us into the future. A scenario where they turn an embarrassing debate performance into an emphatic passing of the torch. And much like March of 2020, the party would fall in line given the very public anointing.

But that would require the Democratic Party to have intelligent leadership, so instead we’ll get Biden and Stephanopolous buried on a holiday weekend.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Creasy Bear said:

I'm voting for RFKjr in protest of both of these candidates.  My hopes are that he garners enough support that 3rd party candidates might have a chance in the future. 

Well this is about as stupid as voting can get 

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Posted
Just now, Creasy Bear said:

I'm voting for RFKjr in protest of both of these candidates.  My hopes are that he garners enough support that 3rd party candidates might have a chance in the future. 

Of all the years to support an independent candidate because of two lackluster choices from the major parties, you choose this one, when the independent candidate is somehow miraculously and substantially worse than Biden and Trump. 

Hero.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

the economy is great. people are better off than they were under Trump. the only problems we have with the economy are BECAUSE of Trump's policies and presidency. This election will be about a good economy, lowest unemployment in 50 years, WOMEN's RIGHTS, the fucking supreme court, and oh yeah DEMOCRACY. If those issues don't get the same 2020 voters plus a shitload of people who previously supported Trump to switch sides then we deserve the dystopian future that would be in store for us all with another Trump presidency. 

this is a stupid fucking argument at this point. Biden has had what many consider to be the most legislatively successful 3.5 years of any president in the last 50 years. He has a booming economy at his back and bright future ahead. 

That's what the election should be about, but it's not. This election is between two men who wouldn't be able to get a job at a gas station. One of them wants to convert us into Nazi Germany, and the other wants to continue being president for reasons he doesn't even understand. But the election can't be about the economy because Biden isn't capable of making the election about that.

Posted
1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Of all the years to support an independent candidate because of two lackluster choices from the major parties, you choose this one, when the independent candidate is somehow miraculously and substantially worse than Biden and Trump. 

Hero.

He's still better than Trump. Everyone is.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Creasy Bear said:

I'm voting for RFKjr in protest of both of these candidates.  My hopes are that he garners enough support that 3rd party candidates might have a chance in the future. 

 

kp poop.gif

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Well this is about as stupid as voting can get 

He was never voting for a Democrat. This is one for our side! /costanza

Edited by Biff Tannen
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Posted
5 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Of all the years to support an independent candidate because of two lackluster choices from the major parties, you choose this one, when the independent candidate is somehow miraculously and substantially worse than Biden and Trump. 

Hero.

Brain worms supporting brain worms 

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

None of what you said is based in any kind of fact.  You, nor anyone else here, has any clue what is going on behind the scenes.

Right, and I acknowledged that.  But my entire comment was a response to a poster stating that Biden had been an effective leader, which assumes he is actively engaged and directing his subordinates “behind the scenes”, something (as you say) we can’t know.

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Right, and I acknowledged that.  But my entire comment was a response to a poster stating that Biden had been an effective leader, which assumes he is actively engaged and directing his subordinates “behind the scenes”, something (as you say) we can’t know.

We can see the accomplishments, and he’s the person in charge. Seems pretty effective. Doesn’t really matter if he’s calling the shots or just the figurehead. The results mean he’s effective as a leader. He’s not sitting around watching tv and eating yogurt all day.

Edited by hobbes2702
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Posted

I think at this moment it is best to begin putting in as many safeguards in place as possible to keep our democracy as functional as possible to survive the next 4 years. I don’t know what that is and I hope smarter people in the government do. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

I think at this moment it is best to begin putting in as many safeguards in place as possible to keep our democracy as functional as possible to survive the next 4 years. I don’t know what that is and I hope smarter people in the government do. 

The ones who don't have private sector options are probably already in full CYA mode. The best we can hope is that a good portion the military brass and the folks in charge of anything nuclear-related are putting collective interests above their own. 

Posted

Throwing in the towel already? any safeguards ends when he fires them all, don't be so naive, this is the telegramed dictatorship with nuclear weapons.

Volunteer if you really care cause it is do or die, even your job is not as valuable.

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Posted
9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Nate Silver is a dipshit but something about a broken clock…

Only Trump’s doctor, the venerable Dr. Ronnie Jackson, would say having the stress of being President 4 more years will turn out just fine for Biden.  
 

*johnson

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Posted
59 minutes ago, troph said:

this is why it's Biden no matter what. I can't believe this isn't understood. the party isn't running for office, a candidate is and he has his or her own enterprise - funders, staffers, key executives, operatives, intel, data, etc. etc. Yes the parties help their candidates and there are organizations through out the country that try to help but in the end, the candidate has his or her own apparatus and that isn't just seamlessly handed off with 4 months to go. it would be an epic disaster behind the scenes not to mention any sort of infighting seen publicly.

It could be Harris. The guys from Pod Save America pointed out that it’s the Biden/Harris campaign so if Biden drops out and Harris is the nominee, all that infrastructure and campaign cash would still be available to her. Not so for anyone else. That’s not to say there wouldn’t likely be some change-up in the staffing but their main point was about the money. She’s the only other candidate who’d have free access to it because she’s already on the ticket. 

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Posted

As for the polls everything is still up for grabs even those disaster state polls means shit like 40-41 or something? There is still 20% twideling their thumbs, my theory is that they are mostly anti trumpers but currently terrified and sticking to home not vote. and no this has nothing to do with the debate because it has been the same for months.

This is why I think Biden has a chance it is easier to calm nerves than change minds. Trump wins only through terror.

Posted

Ian Bremmer is one of the best geopolitical analysts out there. He's not trying to push people on political beliefs. I think he has a good analysis of the situation.

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Posted (edited)
Quote

—Independents: 
Trump leads Biden 44/34. 
Harris leads Trump 43/40

Well that's a little eye-opening.

The "please, for the love of god, anyone but them" vote feels real.

Edited by aggie08
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Posted
1 minute ago, texas08 said:

anyone that sits out this election is an absolute dumb fuck.

Anything other than a vote for the Democratic candidate is a vote for Trump.

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Posted
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I'm a fence sitter on the replace Biden thing, always have been, but primaries are stupid and political parties are private organizations who write their own rules. If they want to replace a nominee that's their prerogative. Nothing undemocratic about it.

Suspicious Futurama GIF

Posted
52 minutes ago, Creasy Bear said:

I'm voting for RFKjr in protest of both of these candidates.  My hopes are that he garners enough support that 3rd party candidates might have a chance in the future. 

Moron

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Posted

I was wondering today why prominent Democrats like Doggett came out publicly. 

After just watching an ABC News update, I strongly believe now the establishment has already made the decision to switch to Harris, but have not been able to get Biden to step down. 

As a result, they are now applying public pressure from Pelosi, Doggett, and several other prominent politicians. They will keep doing this over the next few days until he bails. In my opinion, it’s over. Harris is the nominee. Just my opinion. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

I was wondering today why prominent Democrats like Doggett came out publicly. 

After just watching an ABC News update, I strongly believe now the establishment has already made the decision to switch to Harris, but have not been able to get Biden to step down. 

As a result, they are now applying public pressure from Pelosi, Doggett, and several other prominent politicians. They will keep doing this over the next few days until he bails. In my opinion, it’s over. Harris is the nominee. Just my opinion. 

Lloyd Doggett is a prominent Democrat?

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I was wondering today why prominent Democrats like Doggett came out publicly. 

After just watching an ABC News update, I strongly believe now the establishment has already made the decision to switch to Harris, but have not been able to get Biden to step down. 

As a result, they are now applying public pressure from Pelosi, Doggett, and several other prominent politicians. They will keep doing this over the next few days until he bails. In my opinion, it’s over. Harris is the nominee. Just my opinion. 

giphy.gif.de52278d4bd378b7985e2f053b962623.gif

 

Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Lloyd Doggett is a prominent Democrat?

They said "We need someone that does not matter to go out there and test the waters" and someone in the room said "Wake up Lloyd!"

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I was wondering today why prominent Democrats like Doggett came out publicly. 

After just watching an ABC News update, I strongly believe now the establishment has already made the decision to switch to Harris, but have not been able to get Biden to step down. 

As a result, they are now applying public pressure from Pelosi, Doggett, and several other prominent politicians. They will keep doing this over the next few days until he bails. In my opinion, it’s over. Harris is the nominee. Just my opinion. 

Agree with all that except the Harris part.  She will not be the nominee.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Agree with all that except the Harris part.  She will not be the nominee.  

I think she has to be. As explained above, she would have access to money and campaign infrastructure. If this were July 2023, I would agree that it probably wouldn’t be her. But we don’t have the luxury to have a long process to choose. They need to be ready to go immediately 

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