Hey Oil Barons.......

[tx 3 putt 74769]

14 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

How long till a war starts in order to destabilize the Middle East?

The US / Saudis / Russians will sink an oil tanker in the Persian gulf sooner or later, then blame Iran and declare a war.

someone needs to deal some better weapons to Yemen. ASAP #lordofwar 

Edited April 20, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Angry Gorilla 1747]

The US / Saudis / Russians will sink an oil tanker in the Persian gulf sooner or later, then blame Iran and declare a war.
someone needs to deal some better weapons to Yemen. ASAP #lordofwar 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

The US / Saudis / Russians will sink an oil tanker in the Persian gulf sooner or later, then blame Iran and declare a war.

someone needs to deal some better weapons to Yemen. ASAP #lordofwar 

That's the only reason I'm afraid to short USO.

[Trey3216 15298]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t see how it doesn’t happen again and again over ‘20, albeit at an increasingly less frenetic pace. 

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised to go negative again on the June contract, though not at the same pace.   But, the remainder of the year is going to have some seriously wild swings   It’s a market I’ll pay attention to, but I won’t be trading WTI.   

[Angry Gorilla 1747]

Can I get a giant storage facility built in 30 days?

[tx 3 putt 74769]

9 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

That's the only reason I'm afraid to short USO.

You give Yemen more accurate missiles and quantity, they can bring the saudis to their knees 

[Trey3216 15298]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

If buildings are closed down, then homes’ electric bills will be up. I bet both are used significantly as economy opens back up. Also, a fuckload more associated gas will be off production than I thought just 2 weeks ago. The events of crude through Q2 will ensure gas production plummets. I’m fairly bullish on gas. 

Yep. And a lot of mixed office space is still having to keep climate control steady, as some businesses are still in the office all day everyday.   Commercial demand is down, for sure, but residential demand has kept it to where total demand is barely down about 2%.   And with gas being this cheap, it’ll remain that way.  
 

with associated gas about to be take. Out of the market, we could literally go from being oversupplied to very undersupplied in  less than a year.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

10 minutes ago, Angry Gorilla said:

Can I get a giant storage facility built in 30 days?

Your mom did

[Trey3216 15298]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m just trying to determine how to buy oil properties around 7/1, and ensure I don’t get totally fucked on price. Swapping 2H’20 now and buying cheap calls on top is my favored trade. But I fear for the bulk of that duration, my income will largely be limited to hedge settlements. 

I wish I were smart enough to retort on the land side of the business, but lo, I am not.  

[CycleTex87 2944]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

remember when oil contracts were negative , 34 years ago

Yup.  I was a junior in Petroleum Engineering at the time. 

[Errestaurants 2570]

Is there anyway we can start a Surly Oil Company? let you smarts run it and us dumbasses reap the benefits? 

[Trey3216 15298]

Anyone own land around Grand Saline? 

[Errestaurants 2570]

Just now, Dr. Beeper said:

How much money do you have, and, how much storage capacity do you have?

Somewhere between Tree Fiddy and Eleventy Billion. Wife has plenty of capacity. Deal?

[Wally Fairway 5465]

2 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Is the (-) sign not showing up?

that's what I get from trying to post from my phone while trying to run a couple of errands for my son. I should never commit to being away from my 'puter on expiration eve.

and here is my next question - if that happened on the eve of the May contract expiring, what happens tomorrow when the actually expire? Does the surly collective think that most people closed out their position today, or is there an even bigger fireworks show tomorrow?

I guess this is another website I'll have to follow
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

Edited April 20, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[Sbbruin 21567]

24 minutes ago, Angry Gorilla said:

Can I get a giant storage facility built in 30 days?

Just buy a bunch of Kramerica brand oil bladders.

[fattyflattie 4631]

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now. 

I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lifted, black rims and big tires pulls in. Big pink sticker on the back window "Spoiled Oilfield Wife". The chick that got out of it was wearing "Pink" sweatpants, Uggs, wife beater and no bra hugging her brand new tits, one arm sleeved out with trashy ink, Channel sunglasses and a tacky manicure. I imaging that gal will be back sucking dicks in the parking lot of the strip club she started out in pretty soon.. 

One can only hope.   Don't remember anything that nice at Michaels...ever.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

that's what I get from trying to post from my phone while trying to run a couple of errands for my son. I should never commit to being away from my 'puter on expiration eve.

and here is my next question - if that happened on the eve of the May contract expiring, what happens tomorrow when the actually expire? Does the surly collective think that most people closed out their position today, or is there an even bigger fireworks show tomorrow?

 

I wasn't trying to bust your balls, but damn are you really gonna call on the surly collective?

I too am curious what the open interest is now.  OI at close Friday was 108,593

[Nivek 16643]

32 minutes ago, Angry Gorilla said:

Can I get a giant storage facility built in 30 days?

Just inject into your old well.   

Now if we did a Surly Oil Fund, we could go all in on buying up some stripper wells and strippers....

[Wally Fairway 5465]

4 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

I wasn't trying to bust your balls, but damn are you really gonna call on the surly collective?

I too am curious what the open interest is now.  OI at close Friday was 108,593

nah - I'm just curious, too many people smarter than me and that have experience in the industry keeps me away from playing in the commodities market.  

But I did make a decent amount of money (for back in the day) in 1987 and 1988, when the petrochemical company I worked for bought futures contracts for oil, which was a feedstock for our plants and through other market forces the prices on our products when up considerably. For at least 7 quarters we were making bonuses that were anywhere from 35% to more than 100% of our salary - and I was young and stupid and did buy a new car with my last bonus check.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

You missed everyone jumping on my back earlier.  Anyway here's a nugget on tanker stonks, if you want to gamble on the super-contango. 

 

[Eastwood 4394]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

bottom line is there are no drilling obligations (funny to even type that out), it’s a strictly small, heavily discounted (I guess?) PDP buy, and there is ample storage with the operator, a friend. 

There's a lot of East Texas and South Texas land about to be unleased. A lot of the leasing in that area occurred between 2015 and 2017. The 2015 leases will be out of their option period and the 2017 leases will either allowed to be expired or companies will have to eat the option bonus when cash is tight.

[tx 3 putt 74769]

41 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

There's a lot of East Texas and South Texas land about to be unleased. A lot of the leasing in that area occurred between 2015 and 2017. The 2015 leases will be out of their option period and the 2017 leases will either allowed to be expired or companies will have to eat the option bonus when cash is tight.

tell me more 

[Storm the Field 5239]

57 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

There's a lot of East Texas and South Texas land about to be unleased. A lot of the leasing in that area occurred between 2015 and 2017. The 2015 leases will be out of their option period and the 2017 leases will either allowed to be expired or companies will have to eat the option bonus when cash is tight.

The days of land brokers running giant leasing crews will be back again!  Everyone pour your money into motels in Marshall, Carthage, Karnes City,  George West....etc.

[sunset87 235]

I guess we’re going to rip the band-aid off, skin and all.

[Parliament 13979]

You give Yemen more accurate missiles and quantity, they can bring the saudis to their knees 

Haven't they done pretty well with the junk they have?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Back above $0.00 again

[Rip76 4871]

11 minutes ago, sunset87 said:

I guess we’re going to rip the band-aid off, skin and all.

The whole limb.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

One can only hope.   Don't remember anything that nice at Michaels...ever.

Takes a strong man to turn down a week night after hours party in Maurice.

[Trey3216 15298]

I’m kind of dumbfounded by all of this, never believed we would see it happen to this extent. I haven’t even really looked at volume today, but I know it had to be horrifically low to see the price action we saw.   Not a soul buying.  
 

the only reason I could see it repeat this next month, obviously not to this extent?, is we literally have nowhere to put the shit after a while.  
 

But the thing is, I always think about how the guys that write algos are thinking (the mathematicians), then I think about how the traders are thinking, then I think about the economists (my ilk) are thinking, and place an opinion on those factors.  Obviously, IMO, the economists won this round.  Zero demand, actually worse than zero demand, equals price destruction.   
 

Price destruction should still happen this month.  Demand is just not there.   We’ll see who on Wall St wants to let price discovery happen again.  

[Trey3216 15298]

7 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

Takes a strong man to turn down a week night after hours party in Maurice.

Especially if you speak on the pompetous of love 

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Some groups made some huge mistakes today, or really over the course of April. WTI already back to +$2.20. Best I can tell these groups entered into May futures contracts with no way of physically delivering oil and were forced to sell at significant losses - because they didn’t sell earlier in April. I don’t think the volume was great, either, on the way to the earlier settlement of -$37.63. Wow. Maybe Trey can explain more but that’s my understanding of this. 

I would not expect this to recur next month toward the end of the June contract. Rather, I would expect selling to occur throughout the month, and it started today for June, and WTI is to gradually go down from the current June price of $21.37.

I just cannot fathom the kinds of mistakes that were made to drop the price to fucking negative $40. 

That is my thought as well about the selling will start immediately and will continue.  People will think no way I’m holding this so better get out first chance I can.  That leads to some other jackass thinking, I better get out before that guy and so on and so on.

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Time to get drunk(er).

 

13 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Fuck this.  Time to get drunk.

Mission accomplished.

[936horn 910]

52 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Some groups made some huge mistakes today, or really over the course of April. WTI already back to +$2.20. Best I can tell these groups entered into May futures contracts with no way of physically delivering oil and were forced to sell at significant losses - because they didn’t sell earlier in April. I don’t think the volume was great, either, on the way to the earlier settlement of -$37.63. Wow. Maybe Trey can explain more but that’s my understanding of this. 

I would not expect this to recur next month toward the end of the June contract. Rather, I would expect selling to occur throughout the month, and it started today for June, and WTI is to gradually go down from the current June price of $21.37.

I just cannot fathom the kinds of mistakes that were made to drop the price to fucking negative $40. 

Couple things happened today - 

1. As of last week, the etf USO held approx 25% of May contracts. An ETF can't take delivery of oil, obviously. Someone somewhere lost their job over this, probably multiple people. Since expiry is tomorrow USO was unwinding into a long squeeze and just getting donkey dicked. This move was not organic and suddenly every trader in the world woke up today and finally realized there is no demand and no storage.

2. Concurrently, both our brokers, CME and Barclays were unable to execute buy orders at negative values. The software was not programmed on EITHER EXCHANGE to allow purchases for negative values. So in the span of 15 minutes or so I watched the price freefall once it broke zero down to -$35. I have to imagine that problem was not limited to our brokers. There will be massive lawsuits after this.

Just for funzies i have a picture of my screen when the spreads were >$60 and flat price was -$35. Maybe I'll get it framed once this shit is over.

Edited April 21, 2020 by 936horn

[fattyflattie 4631]

26 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

Takes a strong man to turn down a week night after hours party in Maurice.

A better man than me, for sure. 

[tx 3 putt 74769]

1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Back above $0.00 again

Don’t call it a comeback !!!!!

[gsoda3 3187]

Couple things happened today - 
1. As of last week, the etf USO held approx 25% of May contracts. An ETF can't take delivery of oil, obviously. Someone somewhere lost their job over this, probably multiple people. Since expiry is tomorrow USO was unwinding into a long squeeze and just getting donkey dicked. This move was not organic and suddenly every trader in the world woke up today and finally realized there is no demand and no storage.
2. Concurrently, both our brokers, CME and Barclays were unable to execute buy orders at negative values. The software was not programmed on EITHER EXCHANGE to allow purchases for negative values. So in the span of 15 minutes or so I watched the price freefall once it broke zero down to -$35. I have to imagine that problem was not limited to our brokers. There will be massive lawsuits after this.
Just for funzies i have a picture of my screen when the spreads were >$60 and flat price was -$35. Maybe I'll get it framed once this shit is over.

I'm on the equity side so correct me if I'm wrong but usually USO unwinds to next month starting a couple weeks out. I'd be surprised if they weren't all completely out already by this past Friday's close.

It was crazy watching CL go negative. Our software couldn't even quote the price correctly below 0 so we had to rely on charts.

[Blotto 23227]

 

9 minutes ago, 936horn said:

Couple things happened today - 

1. As of last week, the etf USO held approx 25% of May contracts. An ETF can't take delivery of oil, obviously. Someone somewhere lost their job over this, probably multiple people. Since expiry is tomorrow USO was unwinding into a long squeeze and just getting donkey dicked. This move was not organic and suddenly every trader in the world woke up today and finally realized there is no demand and no storage.

As I understand it, USO rolls out of the front month futures contracts that they hold over 4 days according to a schedule they publish: 

 

So while I'm sure there were people holding these contracts late in the game, it wasn't USO. And the fact that it only fell 11% today would be evidence that they werent caught with the May contracts.  Also due to the huge inflow of money into the ETF, they just changed their structure to hold 80% of the front month contract and 20% of the next. That shift announced a couple of weeks ago, is what enabled them to get under the 20%. I would assume that USO started the day with 80% in June contracts and 20% in July.

I'm just getting started digging into this, as I expect there have to  be some profitable,  albeit counter-intuitive angles here. One strange thing I noticed after the close today is that OTM calls on USO actually closed up decently once you go out a few weeks. I realize USO is not your typical stock, or even ETF, but I'm not sure I can recall something like this: 

[Storm the Field 5239]

1 hour ago, 936horn said:

2. Concurrently, both our brokers, CME and Barclays were unable to execute buy orders at negative values. The software was not programmed on EITHER EXCHANGE to allow purchases for negative values. So in the span of 15 minutes or so I watched the price freefall once it broke zero down to -$35. I have to imagine that problem was not limited to our brokers. There will be massive lawsuits after this.

 

[936horn 910]

40 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

As I understand it, USO rolls out of the front month futures contracts that they hold over 4 days according to a schedule they publish: 

 

So while I'm sure there were people holding these contracts late in the game, it wasn't USO. And the fact that it only fell 11% today would be evidence that they werent caught with the May contracts.  Also due to the huge inflow of money into the ETF, they just changed their structure to hold 80% of the front month contract and 20% of the next. That shift announced a couple of weeks ago, is what enabled them to get under the 20%. I would assume that USO started the day with 80% in June contracts and 20% in July.

I'm just getting started digging into this, as I expect there have to  be some profitable,  albeit counter-intuitive angles here. One strange thing I noticed after the close today is that OTM calls on USO actually closed up decently once you go out a few weeks. I realize USO is not your typical stock, or even ETF, but I'm not sure I can recall something like this: 

I stand corrected - rep to you and gsoda. I am digging in further as well, as even with the profound demand destruction I just cannot accept that every trader woke up today and finally realized "well, nobody is gonna buy this shit so I better dump two days before expiry." This has been in front of every trader's face for a month now. The exchange glitches definitely contributed. This will be a hell of a case study one day.

Edited April 21, 2020 by 936horn

[936horn 910]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Yeah, trust me at minus 35 bucks, we were a bid if the exchange would have let us lol

[Parliament 13979]

With all the drama of today, tomorrow will be boring.  I know it in my heart.

[Henry Hill 3156]

It’s already priced in. 

[gsoda3 3187]

This has been in front of every trader's face for a month now. The exchange glitches definitely contributed. This will be a hell of a case study one day.

It was definitely uncharted waters. Our futures guys were trying to buy but couldn't get orders out. We were yelling at them to buy as much as they could. The strangest part was the volume. Usually you'd find a price disruption like this to be accompanied by massive volume. This had none. Literally no bids. Never seen it before.

What if this had happened tomorrow?  How would the exchanges have settled?  It’s my understanding if you enter into a futures contract - let’s say $30 for May ‘20 - it’s directly with the exchange and it is measured against the settlement price of the last day of the contract. Is that right?
Versus a swap with JPM or BP or GS that is typically an average of settlement prices for that month. 

Yes it would be the closing price on the last day.

[Rimbo 25212]

10 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

If I'm Trump right now, I'm beating the congressional doors down to completely fill it up right now.  

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your supporters instead of people suffering from lupus.

[Trey3216 15298]

10 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your supporters instead of people suffering from lupus.

Kthx 

[LABEVO 928]

Does Kyle Bass and a Texas investment office build a storage tanks for their gold and now oil? 

[Trey3216 15298]

11 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your supporters instead of people suffering from lupus.

Perhaps jerking off about the magnificence  of Luke Cuckwalker whining and ranting while drinking blue alien titty milk. 

[Blotto 23227]

4 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

Does Kyle Bass and a Texas investment office build a storage tanks for their gold and now oil? 

Solid gold storage tanks, imo.

[Trey3216 15298]

Hahaha!!

[936horn 910]

27 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your supporters instead of people suffering from lupus.

Cmon man take that shit to CR