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Posted

Just like the sirens on the Pedernales, which are specifically designed to give people close to the river advance warning so they can leave the low area and get to higher ground.
BTW, I have years of involvement with Mo Ranch. “Get to higher ground” is 100% one of the protocols. Warning helps you do that.

I'm scheduled to be on the Presbytery call this Saturday. Mo Ranch is on the agenda, so I’ll probably get a briefing.
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Posted
52 minutes ago, C-Man said:

My wife said our close friend whose son goes to La Junta, and had just come home the week before the flood, said he received something from La Junta that said they would not be operating for at least the next two summers.

Our son was just 1b at La Junta and we haven’t received any updates but the one just posted.  I think La Junta could get through a few summers with tents if they need to.

In regards to Ozark, my niece and nephew go there and also love it.  Unfortunately, not a fit for us because it’s too Baptist cozy.

We’re going to go Waldemar/La Junta, Cheley, or say fuck camps, let’s do a big family trip.

Posted

My apologies if this is was discussed. I missed it. The burnt orange tie Michael Taafe wore to SEC Media Days had the initials of all the girls who drowned at Camp Mystic.

24dfc23336f247d4a404ffc413c204e6.jpg

abb56e61c83ed3fb0861a54451ad5414.jpg

Posted

i can suggest Rocky River Ranch in Wimberley if a completely secular option is preferred. not nearly as exclusive, but the camp grounds are adorable and all the bunk houses are on a bluff well above the river, they suffered minimal damage in 2015. RRR was the highlight of niece's summer for 12 years 🙂

Posted

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

Posted
7 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

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Posted
56 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

I see folks saying the Mystic emergency plan was for girls to stay in the cabins leading up to a flood event.  Is there any evidence of that or any journalist reporting that supports?

I’m not going to post a photo of the paragraph from their handout that addresses floods, but that’s correct. Essentially - stay in cabins unless a counselor or camp personnel say otherwise 

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Interesting, who did it?

Also, it appears that those floodplain "values" are based on Mystic's "appeals," rather than the floodplain initially established by FEMA.  But, who's "right" on that is not a simple answer.  FEMA's is pretty much a "SWAG," while Mystic's data is "site-specific," although tailored to a desired result, i.e. advocacy.

The negligence case may be harder to establish than initially thought, and I think we know from prior litigation that a Kerr County jury is very sympathetic to the local Eastlands.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted
26 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

The cabin floor of all the cabins appears to be above the 100-year Base Flood Elevation (BFE). The roadway along the 3 cabins closest to the river was slightly below the BFE, so those cabins were evacuated first. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-FEMA-flood-map-analysis

 

Historically, the flash flood warnings have rarely resulted in any flooding of significance and many of those warnings included the same "life threatening" language. 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

When considering the information from above, combined with the weather forecast that did not predict anywhere near a 500-year rain event, it seems reasonable to use a phased cabin evacuation approach. The only information they had to act on was visually observing the water level of the river. The combination of the rapid rate of water rise and total amount of rise made evacuation difficult. There likely was not enough time to change plans by the time they realized how serious the flooding was. Here is an estimated timelapse video in 10 minute increments: 

http://pxl.to/Mystic-flood-timelapse-video

https://pxl.to/mystic-4d-timeline

 

I think the phased evacuation might have been successful in either of these scenarios:

  • Rapid rate of rise but max flood height only reaching somewhere between the 100-year and 500-year flood elevation. The ground outside Twins/Bubble was about 3ft above BFE and the floor was another 2ft higher. These cabins would be the last to flood and would be safe for flood heights up to 7ish feet above BFE (the July 4 flood was about 11 feet above BFE).
  • 30ft rise but slower rate of rise. That would give them time to make it safely to the Rec Hall where the 2nd floor was above the 500-year flood elevation.

Unfortunately, the river rose extremely rapidly and higher than it ever had before with little warning. 

 

Here is a overall big picture analysis of the flood event.

https://pxl.to/mystic-analysis

Sounds like sirens would have saved some lives and given them a few critical minutes of warning to get uphill

Posted
9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Interesting, who did it?

Also, it appears that those floodplain "values" are based on Mystic's "appeals," rather than the floodplain initially established by FEMA.  But, who's "right" on that is not a simple answer.  FEMA's is pretty much a "SWAG," while Mystic's data is "site-specific," although tailored to a desired result, i.e. advocacy.

The negligence case may be harder to establish than initially thought, and I think we know from prior litigation that a Kerr County jury is very sympathetic to the local Eastlands.

I put all that together. Initially I did it for myself to try and understand what/how/why the tragedy happened. Now as more and more misinformation is reported as fact by the media, I felt like people could benefit from an analysis from someone other than a professor of political science or climate change researcher (those are the "flood experts" quoted in all the news articles). 

There is nothing nefarious about removing structures from the 100-year floodplain boundary. This process involves a Licensed Surveyor finding the lowest ground elevation outside each building and comparing that to the BFE. If the ground is higher than the BFE, then the floodplain boundary was drawn incorrectly (FEMA calls this an inadvertent inclusion), and the structure is removed/exempted from the 100-year floodplain. There is no “advocacy” or “tailoring site-specific analysis” involved in that process. Just simply comparing ground elevations to the FEMA BFE. The next time a new FIRM map gets published, it will have a more accurate boundary drawn now that they use LIDAR elevation data instead of the old USGS topography maps with 20ft contour intervals. 

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Posted (edited)

I wish we would stop referring to cabins in the 100 year floodzone.  Yes, some indeed were in the 100 year flood zone but the lowest ones were in the floodway.  There is a difference.  

Let me show you a non-Mystic example or two...

Here is Buffalo Bayou in Houston close to BW8/T&C and as you go into the villages... the flood zone is light blue.  You build/live there, you need insurance and assume there is a risk because you are in the 100 year flood plain.  The green is the 500 year flood plain.  Lower risk, no flood insurance required.  The dark blue... yeah, that shit is flooding.  When we flooded with Harvey, our neighborhood had a house built around 1958 in the floodway.  That house got wrecked.  You do not build in the floodway.  THAT is where Mystic had cabins full of little girls. 

 

image.thumb.png.0e35da454e71d5cf2e645447968b78e7.png

 

Now here's Meyerland.  Damn they won't stop rebuilding houses in the flood zone... you've probably seen the crazy ass lifted homes on Braeswood before.  Flood zone.  Yeah, I think they're kind of dumb. Meyerland farts and it floods.  BUT they're not in the floodway.  That's insane.  That's where Mystic knowingly maintaned cabins.

image.thumb.png.1839af1aab200b740834fb9b7fd9a5a0.png

Now, back to the Mystic map...

A or light blue is the flood zone... like the people who lift their houses in Meyerland.  The striped section is floodway, like the dark blue above and where Mystic had the youngest children.

image.thumb.png.b337f37aea879f06612c3ee46c3a57f7.png 

 

Different view...

image.thumb.png.d5b5c0145f854cc01d87344a8f1b0627.png

Edited by texasdago
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Posted
3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I wish we would stop referring to cabins in the 100 year floodzone.  Yes, some indeed were in the 100 year flood zone but the lowest ones were in the floodway.  There is a difference.  

Let me show you a non-Mystic example or two...

Here is Buffalo Bayou in Houston close to BW8/T&C and as you go into the villages... the flood zone is light blue.  You build/live there, you need insurance and assume there is a risk because you are in the 100 year flood plain.  The green is the 500 year flood plain.  Lower risk, no flood insurance required.  The dark blue... yeah, that shit is flooding.  When we flooded with Harvey, our neighborhood had a house built around 1958 in the floodway.  That house got wrecked.  You do not build in the floodway.  THAT is where Mystic had cabins full of little girls. 

 

image.thumb.png.0e35da454e71d5cf2e645447968b78e7.png

 

Now here's Meyerland.  Damn they won't stop rebuilding houses in the flood zone... you've probably seen the crazy ass lifted homes on Braeswood before.  Flood zone.  Yeah, I think they're kind of dumb. Meyerland farts and it floods.  BUT they're not in the floodway.  That's insane.  That's where Mystic knowingly maintaned cabins.

image.thumb.png.1839af1aab200b740834fb9b7fd9a5a0.png

Now, back to the Mystic map...

A or light blue is the flood zone... like the people who lift their houses in Meyerland.  The striped section is floodway, like the dark blue above and where Mystic had the youngest children.

image.thumb.png.b337f37aea879f06612c3ee46c3a57f7.png 

More people died in this single flood in one night than died in Hurricane Harvey over a week of continuous flooding in the area in Houston you're ID'ing. I don't think the stakes or the risk is as directly comparable as you are asserting here.

Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

More people died in this single flood in one night than died in Hurricane Harvey over a week of continuous flooding in the area in Houston you're ID'ing. I don't think the stakes or the risk is as directly comparable as you are asserting here.

You're not getting it.  I'm point out that in Houston or Hunt or Wimberley or anywhere regardless of whether we are talking about flash flood danger a la Gaudalupe or massive rain event a la Harvey, you don't build in the floodway.  Take the actual event out of it.  You don't build a house next to a fireworks plant and then complain when it blows up.  You certainly don't use that house as a summer camp cabin.

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Posted
9 hours ago, C-Man said:


Both my kids went to Ozark. They loved it.

I have checked that one out as well and there is a bus from Austin so it's on the list. I do like the idea of a place that is a different climate and probably a lot more kids from various areas. She has just really enjoyed the all girl Mystic experience.

Posted
2 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I have checked that one out as well and there is a bus from Austin so it's on the list. I do like the idea of a place that is a different climate and probably a lot more kids from various areas. She has just really enjoyed the all girl Mystic experience.

It's literally been decades but I went to Camp Ozark as pre-teen. I still cherish my memories and time there. It was the summer before I turned 13. As an outdoor adrenaline junky yet to find his fix, Ozark brought it. I recall the other kids being very nice, counselors being kind, food being good and overall a great environment. I never felt lonely, bored (which is shocking), or unwelcome. I never met anyone else in Texas who went there, but it was a different time.

For reference there was also Phillips Flying Ranch camp which I loved. It's sadly now gone.

Posted
57 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

I put all that together. Initially I did it for myself to try and understand what/how/why the tragedy happened. Now as more and more misinformation is reported as fact by the media, I felt like people could benefit from an analysis from someone other than a professor of political science or climate change researcher (those are the "flood experts" quoted in all the news articles). 

There is nothing nefarious about removing structures from the 100-year floodplain boundary. This process involves a Licensed Surveyor finding the lowest ground elevation outside each building and comparing that to the BFE. If the ground is higher than the BFE, then the floodplain boundary was drawn incorrectly (FEMA calls this an inadvertent inclusion), and the structure is removed/exempted from the 100-year floodplain. There is no “advocacy” or “tailoring site-specific analysis” involved in that process. Just simply comparing ground elevations to the FEMA BFE. The next time a new FIRM map gets published, it will have a more accurate boundary drawn now that they use LIDAR elevation data instead of the old USGS topography maps with 20ft contour intervals. 

Solid work. Pretty impressive.  Are you a dirthead?

And, yeah generally agree on the floodplain issue.  In this particular context, it seems rather self-serving in retrospect.

And, while the structure/area removal is objectively supplying data to replace FEMA's estimations, I still consider that advocacy.  The data should be pretty objective and FEMA should be well-positioned to take issue with it if it is false or mischaracterized,   Stranger things happen with government agencies.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I wish we would stop referring to cabins in the 100 year floodzone.  Yes, some indeed were in the 100 year flood zone but the lowest ones were in the floodway.  There is a difference.  

Let me show you a non-Mystic example or two...

Here is Buffalo Bayou in Houston close to BW8/T&C and as you go into the villages... the flood zone is light blue.  You build/live there, you need insurance and assume there is a risk because you are in the 100 year flood plain.  The green is the 500 year flood plain.  Lower risk, no flood insurance required.  The dark blue... yeah, that shit is flooding.  When we flooded with Harvey, our neighborhood had a house built around 1958 in the floodway.  That house got wrecked.  You do not build in the floodway.  THAT is where Mystic had cabins full of little girls. 

 

Now here's Meyerland.  Damn they won't stop rebuilding houses in the flood zone... you've probably seen the crazy ass lifted homes on Braeswood before.  Flood zone.  Yeah, I think they're kind of dumb. Meyerland farts and it floods.  BUT they're not in the floodway.  That's insane.  That's where Mystic knowingly maintaned cabins.

 

Now, back to the Mystic map...

A or light blue is the flood zone... like the people who lift their houses in Meyerland.  The striped section is floodway, like the dark blue above and where Mystic had the youngest children.

image.thumb.png.b337f37aea879f06612c3ee46c3a57f7.png 

 

Different view...

image.thumb.png.d5b5c0145f854cc01d87344a8f1b0627.png

If a building is outside the 100-year floodplain, that same building cannot also be in the floodway.

 image.png.037d3bdd1b59d40858237ce9501f04a3.png

 

The floodway/floodplain boundaries you are referencing are from the 2011 FEMA FIRM that uses less accurate topographic data. The current FEMA Base Level Engineering modeling has more accurate and up to date information. The next time this FIRM panel gets updated, the boundaries will likely more closely match the info shown in the BLE modeling. You can find the BLE model info here: https://webapps.usgs.gov/infrm/estbfe/

Posted
7 minutes ago, alexis texas said:

If a building is outside the 100-year floodplain, that same building cannot also be in the floodway.

 image.png.037d3bdd1b59d40858237ce9501f04a3.png

absolutely true

and in the case of mystic, it's true because the bubble inn was appealed out of the floodway and the floodplain to make the map fit the insurance, not fit the geology

also, this was not a 500-year event

it wasn't a 100-year event

this same level of flooding is a 10-15 year event - did you not see the wsj recap on past floods?  1931, 1953, iirc 7 total in the past 100 years

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Posted
53 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I wish we would stop referring to cabins in the 100 year floodzone.  Yes, some indeed were in the 100 year flood zone but the lowest ones were in the floodway.  There is a difference.  

Let me show you a non-Mystic example or two...

Here is Buffalo Bayou in Houston close to BW8/T&C and as you go into the villages... the flood zone is light blue.  You build/live there, you need insurance and assume there is a risk because you are in the 100 year flood plain.  The green is the 500 year flood plain.  Lower risk, no flood insurance required.  The dark blue... yeah, that shit is flooding.  When we flooded with Harvey, our neighborhood had a house built around 1958 in the floodway.  That house got wrecked.  You do not build in the floodway.  THAT is where Mystic had cabins full of little girls. 

 

image.thumb.png.0e35da454e71d5cf2e645447968b78e7.png

 

Now here's Meyerland.  Damn they won't stop rebuilding houses in the flood zone... you've probably seen the crazy ass lifted homes on Braeswood before.  Flood zone.  Yeah, I think they're kind of dumb. Meyerland farts and it floods.  BUT they're not in the floodway.  That's insane.  That's where Mystic knowingly maintaned cabins.

image.thumb.png.1839af1aab200b740834fb9b7fd9a5a0.png

Now, back to the Mystic map...

A or light blue is the flood zone... like the people who lift their houses in Meyerland.  The striped section is floodway, like the dark blue above and where Mystic had the youngest children.

image.thumb.png.b337f37aea879f06612c3ee46c3a57f7.png 

 

Different view...

image.thumb.png.d5b5c0145f854cc01d87344a8f1b0627.png

Fantastic post and illustrations of the different levels of inundation risk.

48 minutes ago, Captainant said:

More people died in this single flood in one night than died in Hurricane Harvey over a week of continuous flooding in the area in Houston you're ID'ing. I don't think the stakes or the risk is as directly comparable as you are asserting here.

That's not the point, see this response:

45 minutes ago, texasdago said:

You're not getting it.  I'm point out that in Houston or Hunt or Wimberley or anywhere regardless of whether we are talking about flash flood danger a la Gaudalupe or massive rain event a la Harvey, you don't build in the floodway.  Take the actual event out of it.  You don't build a house next to a fireworks plant and then complain when it blows up.  You certainly don't use that house as a summer camp cabin.

Floodway vs. flood plain is really important.  And FEMA isn't just pulling this stuff out of its ass.  These days, the data is pretty well updated, and they use the HEC-RAS modeling software to show inundation in specific types of events.  I've watched animations of it simulating actual floods that occurred, and it is pretty close to spot-on.  It's pretty impressive.

Bottom line, today, if FEMA mapping shows you are in the floodway....you probably shouldn't be there.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

absolutely true

and in the case of mystic, it's true because the bubble inn was appealed out of the floodway and the floodplain to make the map fit the insurance, not fit the geology

also, this was not a 500-year event

it wasn't a 100-year event

this same level of flooding is a 10-15 year event - did you not see the wsj recap on past floods?  1931, 1953, iirc 7 total in the past 100 years

There was a NBC story last week that said the US had four 1000-year weather events across the country just that week -- the Hill Country Flood, flooding in NM, torrential rain in Chicago and I forget where the fourth spot was but there's definitely no climate change involved. None whatsoever.

Edited by C-Man
Posted

I’m a bit ignorant on the term 100 year flood or 500 year flood. How is that calculated? Because at least twice in the last 100 years camp mystic has had cabins lost to floods, another time cars got washed away and the camp was badly damaged, another time the guy’s pregnant wife had to be airlifted out. 

So clearly these aren’t 100 or 500 year events if they’re happening that often. 

I’ve been really reluctant to criticize Eastland because by almost all accounts he was a wonderful human. But Eastland, by his own admission, knew the risk the river posed. His repeated efforts to get and then replace a monitoring system show that he knew the camp was at risk. His comments about dangerous the river is over the years show that he knew it. 

He knew that not having any way to monitor the river left his camp vulnerable, but from the firsthand accounts, he was asleep until the NWS flood warning came in at 1am. 

Even after that warning came in firsthand accounts from his family say that they didn’t immediately evacuate to higher ground. Firsthand accounts from cabin counselors say that they were the ones that made the decision to evacuate once the water in the fucking cabins got too high for them to stay. 

Eastland’s own words: 

“I’m sure there will be other drownings,” Eastland said in a 1990 interview with the Austin American-Statesman. “People don’t heed the warnings.”

He ignored them. The 6pm NWS bulletin said that more than 3” of rain PER HOUR was expected and dangerous flash floods were likely. The first flash flood warning just to the south at 11:40. The flood warning at 1:15 should have been his signal that it was time to move.

At that point their response seems to be little more than what, hope the flood didn’t get worse?

There is plenty of blame to go around for politicians and camp management both. 

But the idea that this was just some fluke, unforeseeable, unpredicted event is bullshit. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I have checked that one out as well and there is a bus from Austin so it's on the list. I do like the idea of a place that is a different climate and probably a lot more kids from various areas. She has just really enjoyed the all girl Mystic experience.

Yes, bus from Austin. And they'll even bring them home on the bus because it's a long haul from Dallas to get them. Adding three hours from Austin makes it REALLY long. It still gets hot up there but I don't think it's quite like the Hill Country camps. They're kind of up in the beginning of the foothills so I'm sure that helps.

The camp owners are really sweet. They're aggy but they're good people. Hot Springs is fun -- once. It's a slog year after year after that. Better to go with a group of parents and stay at Lake Hamilton. We stayed in Mena (on the other side) the night before a couple of times just for a change. (That was Barry Seal's base of cocaine smuggling operations -- the Tom Cruise movie -- and there's an oversized broken-down, Scooby Doo Mystery airport just on the outskirts of town.)

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fantastic post and illustrations of the different levels of inundation risk.

That's not the point, see this response:

Floodway vs. flood plain is really important.  And FEMA isn't just pulling this stuff out of its ass.  These days, the data is pretty well updated, and they use the HEC-RAS modeling software to show inundation in specific types of events.  I've watched animations of it simulating actual floods that occurred, and it is pretty close to spot-on.  It's pretty impressive.

Bottom line, today, if FEMA mapping shows you are in the floodway....you probably shouldn't be there.

 

Question: Is FEMA going away with all these cuts? If so, who's going to be updating and redrawing maps?

Posted
Just now, bolverk said:

 

Question: Is FEMA going away with all these cuts? If so, who's going to be updating and redrawing maps?

That’s the fun part - nobody. Hope your waders have bootstraps 

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Posted
Just now, heso said:

I’m a bit ignorant on the term 100 year flood or 500 year flood. How is that calculated? Because at least twice in the last 100 years camp mystic has had cabins lost to floods, another time cars got washed away and the camp was badly damaged, another time the guy’s pregnant wife had to be airlifted out. 

So clearly these aren’t 100 or 500 year events if they’re happening that often. 

Severe flood frequency is one of the elements of flood prediction and planning that's taken a huge punch in recent years.

Now, those terms aren't really scheduling terms, they reflect the likelihood of such a flood event happening in a given year.  So, the short term way of looking at a 100 year flood is that it's a flood that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year, not that you'll only get one such flood every 100 years.  But, even then....the prediction of frequency is often way off in recent years.

And every meteorologist and planner knows why.  We can't talk about it, or even include discussions of it in government planning documents now, because Cloak Room, but trust me....engineers who matter DGAF about Cloak Room issues.  They go where the data is taking them when it comes to planning.  It takes a good bit of time to catch up, of course.  And development and construction that has already happened is there, and isn't going away.  But yes, these catastrophic-level events are happening more frequently, and to greater extremes.  And our infrastructure and planning is not caught up to the threat, and we seem to be doing all we can socially and politically to ensure that they do not do so.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s the fun part - nobody. Hope your waders have bootstraps 

I live on the edge of the desert along a ridgeline about 35-40 feet above the nearest creek. This house ain't never gonna flood. Tornadoes/hail/wildfires are my personal concern.

Posted
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I live on the edge of the desert along a ridgeline about 35-40 feet above the nearest creek. This house ain't never gonna flood. Tornadoes/hail/wildfires are my personal concern.

Oh well you ain’t gonna get help for any of that either. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And every meteorologist and planner knows why.  We can't talk about it, or even include discussions of it in government planning documents now, because Cloak Room, but trust me....engineers who matter DGAF about Cloak Room issues.

 

It's bizarre that certain people view physics and chemistry as "political." Sure, you might not agree with how public policy responds to basic scientific facts, and that's when things can get political, but you can't credibly deny that the climate is changing at this point. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

It's bizarre that certain people view physics and chemistry as "political." Sure, you might not agree with how public policy responds to basic scientific facts, and that's when things can get political, but you can't credibly deny that the climate is changing at this point. 

Facts are political now. Alternative facts, bro 

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Posted
10 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Our son was just 1b at La Junta and we haven’t received any updates but the one just posted.  I think La Junta could get through a few summers with tents if they need to.

In regards to Ozark, my niece and nephew go there and also love it.  Unfortunately, not a fit for us because it’s too Baptist cozy.

We’re going to go Waldemar/La Junta, Cheley, or say fuck camps, let’s do a big family trip.

Apparently my cousin is assistant director at La Junta. I had no clue.

Posted

My wife just shared a video, I think from Instagram (which I’m not on or I’d post it here) with the La Junta owners surveying the damage.  Looks like the main building/chow hall was swept clean of exterior and interior walls (or they demo’d), everything inside is gone (commercial kitchen, gift shop).  

Posted
22 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

where is the hunt gauge located?  does it measure both the south fork and the middle fork after they merge?  or just one or the other?  what is the elevation of the river at that gauge?

image.thumb.png.01d2d8af90fa932122cbc9c5a59708ba.png

30.06993074, -99.3217122

IMG_5309.thumb.jpeg.f17dc348d2f0b409f0097c0caad2e508.jpeg

altitude - 1722.82 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, alexis texas said:

If a building is outside the 100-year floodplain, that same building cannot also be in the floodway.

 image.png.037d3bdd1b59d40858237ce9501f04a3.png

 

The floodway/floodplain boundaries you are referencing are from the 2011 FEMA FIRM that uses less accurate topographic data. The current FEMA Base Level Engineering modeling has more accurate and up to date information. The next time this FIRM panel gets updated, the boundaries will likely more closely match the info shown in the BLE modeling. You can find the BLE model info here: https://webapps.usgs.gov/infrm/estbfe/

Honestly, anyone who has lived next to a flood-prone area knows you should not build in those areas.  The only people that do tend to be 1) stupid 2) greedy or 3) ignorant.  I'm sorry.  You don't build in a floodway.   And if your property line is in the 100 year floodplain and you can casually throw a rock and hit the floodway, you might want to think twice.  2011 maps don't have to be super accurate to tell me that shit is flooding.  And my point is this - you want to do that with your property and your family, that's on you.  Don't do it with elementary school kids (aaaand not have a plan to get them out)

Edited by texasdago
Posted
1 hour ago, alexis texas said:

Here's historical data from the Hunt flood gage and the annual exceedance probability for each flood event. You can find that data here: https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/?gage=08165300&tab=plots

image.thumb.jpeg.28a3c66898f6fb8489b60fc89d1163a4.jpeg


The 1978 flood had water get to the dining hall but not inside the building and the camp was badly damaged. And in 1985 Tweety Eastman had to be airlifted out due to flood waters. So it sounds like it takes something closer to a 4-5% event to create a dangerous situation at the camp. 

Posted

thank you @heso

before tackling the hunt gauge vs. mystic elevation topics, we need to run to ground some variances in the geography data for the hunt gauge itself...  i was told there would be no maths

confirming you have the river elevation at 1723' at the gauge - what is that data source?

i'm not sure it matters but for avoidance of doubt your latlong for the gauge is 202m ne of where the usgs topo says the gauge is:

image.png.a42a0bcc5b2407a00d65e4004db57d87.png

and note the topo shows an elevation of 1734' - what is that elevation for? the bridge? the river?

the street view at the exact latlong for the gaging station is pretty much useless:

image.thumb.png.25347dd7a8352237ed4b6f0ae87acb48.png

there is a lot of variance in these elevations to the point that i'm questioning all of the data from all sources

Posted

at the usgs gauge latlong streetview, pivoting 90 degrees and now looking northeast, the bridge over the river is 200' away.....

image.thumb.png.7fa021c02705d655d965d84f2ae980ec.png

on the 'bridge':

image.thumb.png.525f917102a1bcd3656c8e89030e5db4.png

panning 90 left, looking upstream from on top of the 'bridge', the gauge has to be somewhere up in here:

image.thumb.png.a0379df64666d9afcf20bae5025ab245.png

Posted
8 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

thank you @heso

before tackling the hunt gauge vs. mystic elevation topics, we need to run to ground some variances in the geography data for the hunt gauge itself...  i was told there would be no maths

confirming you have the river elevation at 1723' at the gauge - what is that data source?

i'm not sure it matters but for avoidance of doubt your latlong for the gauge is 202m ne of where the usgs topo says the gauge is:

image.png.a42a0bcc5b2407a00d65e4004db57d87.png

and note the topo shows an elevation of 1734' - what is that elevation for? the bridge? the river?

the street view at the exact latlong for the gaging station is pretty much useless:

image.thumb.png.25347dd7a8352237ed4b6f0ae87acb48.png

there is a lot of variance in these elevations to the point that i'm questioning all of the data from all sources

The source is the usgs website. Location accuracy is +/- 5 sec, so +/- 480 ft. Elevation accuracy is +/- 0.05 ft. 

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08165500/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065--887047781&period=P7D

Posted
14 hours ago, C-Man said:


Both my kids went to Ozark. They loved it.

Congrats on funding the A&M Athletics Department.

All kidding aside, the Torn family is great and Ozark/OTX are extremely popular.

Posted
2 hours ago, heso said:

The source is the usgs website. Location accuracy is +/- 5 sec, so +/- 480 ft. Elevation accuracy is +/- 0.05 ft. 

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08165500/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065--887047781&period=P7D

And another interesting little artifact: when referring to these devices, the USGS usually spells it "gage."  Which is correct, it's just an odd thing.

Posted
35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And another interesting little artifact: when referring to these devices, the USGS usually spells it "gage."  Which is correct, it's just an odd thing.

ai sez:

The words "gage" and "gauge" are often used interchangeably, but "gauge" is the more common and preferred spelling, especially in American English. Both words, when used as nouns, can refer to an instrument used for measurement or a standard by which something is measured. As verbs, they both mean to measure or estimate. While "gage" can be a variant spelling of "gauge," it also has some distinct, though often obsolete, meanings related to pledges and challenges, like a glove thrown down as a challenge in a duel. 

 

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