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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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Lest we forget, the Soviet Union (287 million people) was twice as large in 1989 as Russia is in 2022.

 

Having a hard time finding any sympathy for them, outside of the kid, unless they are actively protesting the war.  Yes, they would risk jail, but unless a shitload of them actually start protesting, Putin is going to continue cruising along with his 3-day war.

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

George W Bush is jealous of this speedrun

You joke but the more interesting stat is that even if we go with a lowball estimate of just 17,000 dead, that's over 50,000 wounded (at least), which is nearly 70,000 dead and wounded.

That's around 35% (or more) of their entire invading force being killed or wounded, and we haven't seen a massive replacement program due to the fact that Putin can't do much without a declaration of war.  He went to war with a peacetime army, and he's still fighting it with a peacetime army.

But wait, there's more!

Most of their invading force were not combat troops, but support troops such as mechanics, truck drivers, etc.  If you start playing with math, there's probably less than 50,000 combat arms troops (infantry, arty). It's easy to see how so many of their BTGs were rendered ineffective and how their logistics got turbofucked.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You joke but the more interesting stat is that even if we go with a lowball estimate of just 17,000 dead, that's over 50,000 wounded (at least), which is nearly 70,000 dead and wounded.

That's around 35% (or more) of their entire invading force being killed or wounded, and we haven't seen a massive replacement program due to the fact that Putin can't do much without a declaration of war.  He went to war with a peacetime army, and he's still fighting it with a peacetime army.

But wait, there's more!

Most of their invading force were not combat troops, but support troops such as mechanics, truck drivers, etc.  If you start playing with math, there's probably less than 50,000 combat arms troops (infantry, arty). It's easy to see how so many of their BTGs were rendered ineffective and how their logistics got turbofucked.

It's crazy how much power incompetent people can get just by acting the part.

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

It's crazy how much power incompetent people can get just by acting the part.

Putin is incompetent by Western standards, but he is exactly what was needed or created by what Russia had became in the 1990s - a mafia state of sorts.  To this day he still surrounds himself with his Saint Petersburg cronies, as if he's a mob boss who doesn't trust "outsiders".

It does make you wonder though - if Russia was being run by somebody with actual military competence and who understand what the Russian military has become, how would things be different?  Then again, if Putin had at least some military background, he probably would have finished off Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, and/or not let the oligarchs strip-mine the military through shitty contracts and other corruption (theft and blackmarket dealings, etc.).  The shitty state of the Russian military has taken 30+ years to happen, and Putin and Co. only accelerated it.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin is incompetent by Western standards, but he is exactly what was needed or created by what Russia had became in the 1990s - a mafia state of sorts.  To this day he still surrounds himself with his Saint Petersburg cronies, as if he's a mob boss who doesn't trust "outsiders".

It does make you wonder though - if Russia was being run by somebody with actual military competence and who understand what the Russian military has become, how would things be different?  Then again, if Putin had at least some military background, he probably would have finished off Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, and/or not let the oligarchs strip-mine the military through shitty contracts and other corruption (theft and blackmarket dealings, etc.).  The shitty state of the Russian military has taken 30+ years to happen, and Putin and Co. only accelerated it.

That makes sense, maybe I should have clarified that I'm more surprised he was able to hold on to, consolidate, and increase his power. I get that there's a bunch of corruption but even in other corrupt narco and mafia states you'll usually get overthrown or replaced if you are doing a shit enough job.

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Oh shit, people discovered Trent Telenko was into some batshit conspiracy theories and other stuff, and not quite so knowledgable as he appeared to be, so now he's become "TireAnon"

Just one of the threads (most of them are quoting stuff he was into that's more for the CR thread).

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That makes sense, maybe I should have clarified that I'm more surprised he was able to hold on to, consolidate, and increase his power. I get that there's a bunch of corruption but even in other corrupt narco and mafia states you'll usually get overthrown or replaced if you are doing a shit enough job.

I don't remember if it was her PBS interview back in February (easy to find on YouTube), but Julia Ioffe has written/spoken a lot about how Putin was able to consolidate and then keep power for so long.  It came down to how he managed to get most of the oligarchs under this thumb and made sure their fortunes, to an extent, relied upon his remaining in office.  He or Russia or whatever, would end up owning a portion of their companies (which is why Putin maybe the richest man in the world), there was always the threat of their Russian assets/companies being confiscated and them being jailed, etc.

In that aspect, he played a very long game - that's why so few oligarchs have been willing to cross him, even though he's ruining their fortunes as they watch their overseas assets confiscated, and their businesses in Russia suffer under sanctions.  Hell, I expected the oligarchs to knock him off well before now, but nope, most of them are staying loyal to him.

It makes sense if you see Russia as basically a petrostate run by the mafia.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best outcome to all of this for Russians would be for somebody like Navalny to end up in power.  It would take somebody like him who A) recognizes the actual problem with Russia's actions and the impact they are having on Russia itself and B) tries to do whatever is necessary to reconnect with Europe/the world.

The judge:

The Office No GIF

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Troops must be tired as shit on both sides. Don't think they are grinding them down. I think the UA knows they cannot go toe to toe in the Artillery battle, yet, so consolidate their lines, get them straight, and keep bleeding the Russians. As was said above, and good analysis @atomheartbevo, an army designed for peace, like Russia's, cannot sustain combat for a long time. They have to rotated and replaced. 

Shorten the lines, get troops under an artillery shield and go on the defensive. Russia cannot take all of the Ukraine. They can control the eastern zones, but the country? Nah. 

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13 hours ago, Gatorubet said:


If I’m Wagner, maybe don’t hire mercenary jet pilots who were fired for….crashing jets.

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

Only if Erik Prince provided it. 

 

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1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

It's starting to sound like the Ukrainian army is running out of steam.  I still haven't seen any reliable casualty numbers for them.  Russia may suck ass but they might be grinding  the Ukes down. 

Most likely just trying to hold the line and attrite RU forces until all the newly enlisted UA forces having actual training, and all the West's heavy weapons arrive, before a counterattack. 

Reports around the net that RU is now pulling T-62s out of storage. Speculation for that is RU has lost every tank in the original commitment force. At present loss rates RU will burn through those 250 T-62 in 6-8 weeks.

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh shit, people discovered Trent Telenko was into some batshit conspiracy theories and other stuff, and not quite so knowledgable as he appeared to be, so now he's become "TireAnon"

Just one of the threads (most of them are quoting stuff he was into that's more for the CR thread).

 

This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 

 

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42 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Most likely just trying to hold the line and attrite RU forces until all the newly enlisted UA forces having actual training, and all the West's heavy weapons arrive, before a counterattack. 

Reports around the net that RU is now pulling T-62s out of storage. Speculation for that is RU has lost every tank in the original commitment force. At present loss rates RU will burn through those 250 T-62 in 6-8 weeks.

T-62s?  

Better start culling the museums for T-34s.  

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This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 
 
Reread it. It was USA takes 5 minutes, unless ROE slows it down, and Ukraine less than a minute.

But, yes he started dribbling his far rightwing politics into his threads a a few weeks ago.
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3 hours ago, Fico said:

This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 

The artillery stuff bugged me a bit, as it wasn't as drawn-out as he made it to be, and his bitching that we were careful about our targets was fucking stupid.  There was a reason why the US is careful about just dumping a shitload of artillery onto a target - unlike the Russians, we do try to avoid civilian casualties where possible - we actually recognize that just laying waste to civilians tends to create more enemy fighters and is used in propaganda against us (see all of the times we hit civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq).  Given that in both of those countries, we tended to operate in areas where our guys were surrounded/outnumbered by local civilians, it was a wise move.  Plus it was the ethical move.  We aren't Russians.

In the case of Ukraine, the Ukrainians know the areas because it's their country and they are aware of which places were evacuated, etc., so that could easily speed up/change the ROE.

I briefly looked at Telenko's blog because he had some interesting WWII stuff, but after reading some of the twitter stuff, I found this on his blog, from March of 2020:

Quote

Next, many of the deaths of Health Care Workers may have been due to their brain sems being invaded by the virus and the resultant swelling cutting off the autonomic signals from the brain to the lungs to breath.  So SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 is just like a flu…As long as you remember to keep breathing and don’t fall asleep.

cheryl-cole-okay.gif

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38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Next, many of the deaths of Health Care Workers may have been due to their brain sems being invaded by the virus and the resultant swelling cutting off the autonomic signals from the brain to the lungs to breath.  So SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 is just like a flu…As long as you remember to keep breathing and don’t fall asleep.

37 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I briefly looked at Telenko's blog because he had some interesting WWII stuff, but after reading some of the twitter stuff, I found this on his blog, from March of 2020:

cheryl-cole-okay.gif

I haven't read any of his stuff but that thing you highlighted simply comes across as a dark joke.

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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I haven't read any of his stuff but that thing you highlighted simply comes across as a dark joke.

It would be, if it wasn't surrounded by at least three Lobo Manifesto's worth of speculation/opinion.

Hell, I didn't do a word count, so it could very well have been the length of 4-5 Lobo Manifestos.

And he's got a lot of stuff going on that's basically Qanon-lite.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It would be, if it wasn't surrounded by at least three Lobo Manifesto's worth of speculation/opinion.

Hell, I didn't do a word count, so it could very well be at 4-5 Lobo Manifestos.

So like War and Peace or an Ian Boyd analysis. Got it.

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5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

They said the markings on the jet were diff than normal Russian SUs.  So they try to maintain that fiction

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