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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

This is a bit of overselling what a Defense Cooperation Agreement is. We have or are negotiating them with most NATO Allies and we have them with some important non-NATO Allies. They’re framework agreements on things like taxation and legal status of U.S. personnel and will allow law Niger deployments and more meaningful training and cooperation. But the agreements themselves don’t give permission to build bases or deploy anyone, those agreements are concluded separately.  And in many cases, it’s never contemplated to do that, 

For sure Russia won’t like it and it’s a big step in improving the scope of defense ties with our new NATO friends— but it doesn’t mean Ft. Suomi is on the horizon. 

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I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

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10 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

image.png.55d446ad5a6593ac01487d8216e4393d.png

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10 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

In the new Twitter, the blue checks = increased likelihood of Russian trolling. Stick to well-known accounts posted here or reporters from reputable organizations.

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3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I was including all US armed forces branches as a single entity. Regardless, the US Navy does not maintain more aircraft than Russia. But, if you wanted to divide it by branches, the Army technically maintains more aircraft than the Navy (but not fixed wing fighters/attack aircraft). 

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

It turns out the US Navy is actually the fourth largest air force. US Army Aviation is the second-largest. USAF the first. Russia is third.

But yes, it depends on how you count it. And if we're talking about force effectiveness... whole 'nother story entirely.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/largest-air-forces-in-the-world

I think we are talking about aircraft that are in actual flying condition.

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14 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

Reading Russian disinformation and comparing it to experts who are trying their best to offer good analysis with imperfect information is no way to seek out what’s really happening. 
 

You can look up people who get posted here, like Hertling and Kofman and RA Lee and they will go back a land revisit what they got right and what they misread and explain where their gaps are. And you can compare that with what actually happened. That’s not equivalent to the shit that gets boiled in vatnik soup. 

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think we are talking about aircraft that are in actual flying condition.

The source I was using was using data from before recent events, too.

I suspect Russia is not where this data said it was for both that reason and yours.

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The Russian trolls are beating the drums hard. The WSJ comments are 90% Russians today. They openly complain about WSJ reporting being slanted to Ukraine. I generally reply that Russia would get a fairer shake if it didn’t arrest journalists on fake charges. 
 
This forum paints a picture that, in my opinion, leans too optimistic, but that could be just me. I think it’s pretty close to the reality. 
 
 

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18 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

A bunch of others have addressed this; all I'll add is that one of the two sides, Russia,  is engaged purely in propaganda - it's both their primary weapon and their only remaining hope for any kind of success - while the other, Ukraine, will use propaganda to support its side, but needs to remain in touch with facts and reality to achieve its aims.

And then guys like Hertling have knowledge such that their predictions have been eerily prescient, where he can quote himself from six months ago on things he said would happen, and then today they happened exactly the way he said they would. He was one of the handful who predicted that Russia would fail badly on the very earliest days of the war, and app the reasons he gave for why have proven true as well. He's actually trained the Ukrainian troops and seen the Russian Army firsthand, and he knew what he saw.

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31 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

In the new Twitter, the blue checks = increased likelihood of Russian trolling. Stick to well-known accounts posted here or reporters from reputable organizations.

looking at names is too much work... i don't know who most of the people are - stars on their belly or not.

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49 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I searched "Ukraine" on twitter...

I don't believe anything on twitter. Not sure what to believe on surly on most days. What I can say is there is a pretty big difference in the narrative.

Twitter: UKRAINE IS OUT OF WEAPONS AND EQUIPMENT - ALL DESTROYED BY RUSSIA.

Surly: Russia doesn't have shit, except old shit, which Ukraine destorys daily, and all of the missiles they launched were destroyed.

 

Somewhere in the middle is truth, i'm guessing.

Thank you for the drive by pointless post that repeats Russian propaganda and simultaneously admits you're too lazy to figure any of it out. Your useful idiocy is appreciated

- Sincerely, Putin - 

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5 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Slightly off tangent here, but for an island country with a natural defensive border, they developed a lot of bad ass weapons, starting from nukes, Challenger 2 tank, Typhoon jet, mid-range ballistic missiles, and MANPADs.

According to this article, they are the world’s second largest weapons exporter.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/uk-remains-second-biggest-arms-exporter-with-11bn-of-orders

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17 minutes ago, Slacks said:

looking at names is too much work... i don't know who most of the people are - stars on their belly or not.

Start with this guy. This is Gen Mark Hertling, official account.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Thank you for the drive by pointless post that repeats Russian propaganda and simultaneously admits you're too lazy to figure any of it out. Your useful idiocy is appreciated

- Sincerely, Putin - 

don't be a dick

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11 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Slightly off tangent here, but for an island country with a natural defensive border, they developed a lot of bad ass weapons, starting from nukes, Challenger 2 tank, Typhoon jet, mid-range ballistic missiles, and MANPADs.

According to this article, they are the world’s second largest weapons exporter.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/uk-remains-second-biggest-arms-exporter-with-11bn-of-orders

Add ACC catapults, the angled flight deck, and radar.  Glad we made up with them after 1812.

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3 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

I assume Putin will find out in 2025 - because nobody will tell him his ass-hattery resulted in a Finnish NATO membership with the possibility of U.S. bases on his border at some point. 

Edited by Gatorubet
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30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Thank you for the drive by pointless post that repeats Russian propaganda and simultaneously admits you're too lazy to figure any of it out. Your useful idiocy is appreciated

- Sincerely, Putin - 

Oh, now we're Surly....

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13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Glad we made up with them after 1812.

We've made up with them and then some.

We recently held a ceremony honoring some Americans and Brits who fought in the Revolution, and they will be buried together (unless the Brits repatriate them).  

Quote

Soldiers from 2nd Battalion the Royal Regiment of Scotland have taken part in the funeral of 13 soldiers killed in a battle during the American revolutionary war in South Carolina nearly 250 years ago. Their remains were discovered by archaeologists last year at the site of the Battle of Camden in South Carolina. One of the soldiers was from the British 71st Regiment of Foot, Fraser's Highlanders, a Scottish regiment formed for the Revolutionary War.

 

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9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm fairly certain it is at least the second time in this thread that he has done it. That post had no point. He wasn't looking for information (it has been posted in this thread after all). He was actively admitting he would make no effort to figure out the truth. The only thing a post like that does is spread Russian propaganda and give it an hint a credence, i.e., the truth must be somewhere in between Surly and Russian claims as opposed to Russia's claims being complete fabrication. I don't think calling that bullshit out is unwarranted. 

Seconded. Slacks is an assclown and should be treated as such.

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Really good look inside the Ramstein group and how it works, and some praise for SecDef Austin. He’s been, IMO, quietly a fantastic selection for this administration (as far as I’ll go without getting CR).

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/austin-defense-meetings-weapons-ukraine-00089946

Quote

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany — When U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin brings together the defense chiefs of more than 40 nations here in southwest Germany each month, the hours-long gathering typically ends the same way: Celeste Wallander, the Pentagon’s head of international security affairs, calls on each participant to read out what weapons their nation is ready to donate to Ukraine.

It’s a question — perhaps the question — that will help determine Ukraine’s future more than a year following Russia’s invasion.


 

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16 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Come On Biden GIF by GIPHY News

 

40 minutes ago, Slacks said:

looking at names is too much work... i don't know who most of the people are - stars on their belly or not.

 

35 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Thank you for the drive by pointless post that repeats Russian propaganda and simultaneously admits you're too lazy to figure any of it out. Your useful idiocy is appreciated

- Sincerely, Putin - 

 

7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Well, you did your research

 

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm fairly certain it is at least the second time in this thread that he has done it. That post had no point. He wasn't looking for information (it has been posted in this thread after all). He was actively admitting he would make no effort to figure out the truth. The only thing a post like that does is spread Russian propaganda and give it an hint a credence, i.e., the truth must be somewhere in between Surly and Russian claims as opposed to Russia's claims being complete fabrication. I don't think calling that bullshit out is unwarranted. 

of all the shit that has been thrown into this 1200+ reply thread, you've locked up on me not wanting to go through profiles and names on twitter to try to validate what's what.

seriously, even if I did look into the post history of everyone on twitter, what would I gain? it's twitter. anybody can say whatever they want and there will be a hoard of followers (believers, if you like.)

and really, you don't think the truth is closer to something other than two vastly different takes? that is how the actual bullshit we endure gets started - by people not being able to even consider their 'side' might be rolling out a bit of hyperbole (or lies). of course i find the russian info less likely, but calling out the dichotomy shouldn't make people so pissy.

i've been called suspicious without merit before, so this does not surprise me one bit.

 

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9 minutes ago, Slacks said:

 

of all the shit that has been thrown into this 1200+ reply thread, you've locked up on me not wanting to go through profiles and names on twitter to try to validate what's what.

seriously, even if I did look into the post history of everyone on twitter, what would I gain? it's twitter. anybody can say whatever they want and there will be a hoard of followers (believers, if you like.)

and really, you don't think the truth is closer to something other than two vastly different takes? that is how the actual bullshit we endure gets started - by people not being able to even consider their 'side' might be rolling out a bit of hyperbole (or lies). of course i find the russian info less likely, but calling out the dichotomy shouldn't make people so pissy.

i've been called suspicious without merit before, so this does not surprise me one bit.

 

Fortunately for you, there is a whole thread here that, just perusing the last couple of pages, should give you a decent idea of what information is credible and what information isn't. If you want a listing of more reliable sources, you just need to ask. But of course that isn't what you did. You drove by, said nothing is credible, and said you don't have time to figure it out. That is bullshit and dishonest. 

If you want good information, look for OSINT (open source intelligence) sources like Oryx that literally include photos and verification with all of their data as well as an explanation of their methodology. I might suggest you can also generally trust sources from the Defense Department and the UK Ministry of Defense for conservative estimates, but feel free to verify those with open source material. Anything and everything from the Kremlin or Kremlin backed sources like RT and Russian state media programs should be viewed with extreme skepticism. Anything from Ukraine's government should also be viewed with some skepticism, although in general it is much more consistent with open source material than anything Russian. If you want a one stop source with incredibly detailed background from someone that is some sort of defense analyst for the Australian government, check out Perun's power point presentations on youtube. They are long (an hour each), informative, entertaining, and well sourced.  

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6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A little on that UNGA resolution, I have to say I am more in @SydneyCarton’s camp. 
 

The resolution is a general one that calls for more cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe.  The part about Russian aggression is one paragraph. During the drafting phase, China tried to have that paragraph removed. They didn’t succeed, so the whole resolution went for a vote with the aggression language in, and China held their nose and voted for it. 
 

Why? Because China has seen the potential to push on fractures between Europe and the United States by playing “good cop” to Europe and trying to paint the U.S. as a spoiler. China has astutely recognized that being too far, publicly, in Russia’s camp is going to push Europe away more. And a “no limits” partnership with Russia is a poor substitute for access to the massive EU market and for the potential to peel away U.S. Allies. 
 

In short, this is if anything a tactical gesture to Europe and is not to be seen as a shift in Chinese attitudes, especially not on big questions like Taiwan or the S. China sea. 

Fair points in the above and I agree in general that this is not a huge paradigm shift. However this one of the first publicly documented instances where the Putin and Xi "friendship without limits" is clearly subordinate to China's interests. China is clearly signaling that the European market is of much more value than the Russian market. And that's got to add to Putin's pucker factor going forward.

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6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Fortunately for you, there is a whole thread here that, just perusing the last couple of pages, should give you a decent idea of what information is credible and what information isn't. If you want a listing of more reliable sources, you just need to ask. But of course that isn't what you did. You drove by, said nothing is credible, and said you don't have time to figure it out. That is bullshit and dishonest. 

If you want good information, look for OSINT (open source intelligence) sources like Oryx that literally include photos and verification with all of their data as well as an explanation of their methodology. I might suggest you can also generally trust sources from the Defense Department and the UK Ministry of Defense for conservative estimates, but feel free to verify those with open source material. Anything and everything from the Kremlin or Kremlin backed sources like RT and Russian state media programs should be viewed with extreme skepticism. Anything from Ukraine's government should also be viewed with some skepticism, although in general it is much more consistent with open source material than anything Russian. If you want a one stop source with incredibly detailed background from someone that is some sort of defense analyst for the Australian government, check out Perun's power point presentations on youtube. They are long (an hour each), informative, entertaining, and well sourced.  

I didn't say there aren't credible sources... i'm not denying that i find a lot of the info to be really well laid out and supported. that wasn't the point at all.  maybe this topic is something strongly personal to you, and if it is, i understand where you're coming from a bit more. (not just you @Dahobbs, but anyone else who can't fathom that truth isn't firmly planted on one side's public info.

No, I do not believe 90% of Ukraine equipment has been destroyed. Don't be silly. 

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7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Again, when you advocate for moving the truth needle halfway between a historic and current pathological liar propagandist - and not perfect but generally reliable cross-checked sources - you unwittingly support the propagandist. 

That pissed folks off. 

aaaaaah, my bad.  i wasn't trying to be precise with 'middle'. if you will allow, I yield to that point and suggest reading "in the middle" as "somewhere in between". 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Slacks said:

No, I do not believe 90% of Ukraine equipment has been destroyed. Don't be silly. 

Russia hasn't claimed to have just destroyed 90% of Ukraine equipment. Russia has claimed to destroy Ukraine's airforce multiple times over (despite Ukraine jets and helicopters still clearly operating). Russia has claimed to destroy ever HIMARs system provided by the US at least once. Russia claimed in September that it had destroyed Bradley fighting vehicles, which the US hadn't even decided it was going to provide yet. Russia's claims aren't credible in the slightest. When you announce the truth must be somewhere between Russia and generally reliable and well documented sources, and then announce you'll do bugger all to figure out the truth, yeah, it is more than a bit annoying. 

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1 minute ago, Slacks said:

I didn't say there aren't credible sources... i'm not denying that i find a lot of the info to be really well laid out and supported. that wasn't the point at all.  maybe this topic is something strongly personal to you, and if it is, i understand where you're coming from a bit more. (not just you @Dahobbs, but anyone else who can't fathom that truth isn't firmly planted on one side's public info.

No, I do not believe 90% of Ukraine equipment has been destroyed. Don't be silly. 

reread @Gatorubet's post above yours. It may be a little harsh but it is the truth. Russia puts out a lot of propaganda so don't just think the answer is somewhere in-between. That isn't correct. Ukraine of course is going to put a positive spin on the war because it needs to keep and grow internal and external support. However, Russia outright lies about what is going on. Like the numbers of injured and killed and numbers of lost equipment have been totally fabricated. The numbers posted here on this page are pretty accurate. So the answer for the number killed are much, much closer to what you see published on Surly. Similarly, there are some too rosy pictures regarding Ukrainian progress but if you focus on someone like Hertling who tries to temper expectations, you will get a much clearer picture than from any Russian source.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Russia hasn't claimed to have just destroyed 90% of Ukraine equipment. Russia has claimed to destroy Ukraine's airforce multiple times over (despite Ukraine jets and helicopters still clearly operating). Russia has claimed to destroy ever HIMARs system provided by the US at least once. Russia claimed in September that it had destroyed Bradley fighting vehicles, which the US hadn't even decided it was going to provide yet. Russia's claims aren't credible in the slightest. When you announce the truth must be somewhere between Russia and generally reliable and well documented sources, and then announce you'll do bugger all to figure out the truth, yeah, it is more than a bit annoying. 

I said I wasn't trying to validate someone's twitter status... never said i wouldn't try to better understand what's really what. that's what you decided i said.

one statement from twitter juxtaposed to the surly thread predominant statement... has turned me into a russian propagandist.

this is actually a pretty interesting human experiment that i've stumbled into by accident. the parallels to other historical situations are kinda interesting, but do not have a place in this thread.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

reread @Gatorubet's post above yours. It may be a little harsh but it is the truth. Russia puts out a lot of propaganda so don't just think the answer is somewhere in-between. That isn't correct. Ukraine of course is going to put a positive spin on the war because it needs to keep and grow internal and external support. However, Russia outright lies about what is going on. Like the numbers of injured and killed and numbers of lost equipment have been totally fabricated. The numbers posted here on this page are pretty accurate. So the answer for the number killed are much, much closer to what you see published on Surly. Similarly, there are some too rosy pictures regarding Ukrainian progress but if you focus on someone like Hertling who tries to temper expectations, you will get a much clearer picture than from any Russian source.

"Ukraine of course is going to put a positive spin on the war because it needs to keep and grow internal and external support."

Synonyms of "spin" - bias, prejudice, slant.

"Similarly, there are some too rosy pictures regarding Ukrainian progress"

 

But then we just say these things as fact (statements would not hold up in court without proof, right?)

"Like the numbers of injured and killed and numbers of lost equipment have been totally fabricated."

"The numbers posted here on this page are pretty accurate."

 

 

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Somewhere between dahobbs viciousness and my acceptance is the question as honest life's the truth of Slacks attitude

I don't understand what I just read...

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2 minutes ago, Slacks said:
6 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

I don't understand what I just read...

neither do I TBH

Just now, Slacks said:

FWIW, original post was taken way out of context... I just kept on going because this is surly and personal attacks are a way of life.

Yeah, but we've generally tried to keep this thread mostly on topic, informational and drama free.

 

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Since I know Slacks personally, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I'm pretty sure he's not one of Putin's lackeys.  

 

As for the blue checks, Elon has definitely made it harder to figure out what information is reliable and I'm sure that was by design. The good news is the blue checks allow you to figure out more easily who to block.

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