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Posted
19 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Looking for the optimistic side...

 

Not Bad GIF by Bud Light

I'll take this as well - recent numbers

Details: The total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 16 September 2025 are estimated to be as follows [figures in parentheses represent the latest losses – ed.]:

  • approximately 1,096,430 (+910) military personnel
  • 11,184 (+0) tanks
  • 23,274 (+5) armoured combat vehicles
  • 32,810 (+26) artillery systems
  • 1,490 (+2) multiple-launch rocket systems
  • 1,217 (+0) air defence systems
  • 422 (+0) fixed-wing aircraft
  • 341 (+0) helicopters
  • 59,719 (+310) operational-tactical UAVs
  • 3,718 (+0) cruise missiles
  • 28 (+0) ships/boats
  • 1 (+0) submarine
  • 61,770 (+72) vehicles and fuel tankers
  • 3,965 (+0) special vehicles and other equipment.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/16/7531062/

The flood of identified Russian war dead continues on the Poteru database.

4,106 1st-17th September. About 240/day... Higher than any complete month. And many more will not have public obituaries.

This is very likely due to changes in Russian reporting, lots of old deaths being reported now.

136,845 identified by name. There will be some mistakes, but lots and lots not publicly identified. I think it's almost impossible for true Russian deaths to be below 200k by now. Wouldn't surprise me if it's 250k.

This doesn't include force mobilised Ukrainians or other non-Russians.

https://bsky.app/profile/leoskyview.bsky.social/post/3lz2ofdjb4c2a

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Posted
46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

136,845 identified by name. There will be some mistakes, but lots and lots not publicly identified. I think it's almost impossible for true Russian deaths to be below 200k by now. Wouldn't surprise me if it's 250k.

If a million casualties, then 200,000 - 250,000 dead seems right, given that their level of battlefield medical care is third world.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Yeah it’s obvious that Russia’s hope with the desperate drones into Poland and Romania was to keep more equipment from getting to Ukraine. Do the opposite. 

Edited by B00M
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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

if the price of everything keeps going up, and there are already shortages of some things, it makes sense to take all your money out and buy as many things as humanly possible while they are still available and at a lower price point.

Watching Constantine’s Wednesday economic report, he reminded me of of a different aspect of people taking all their money out.  When the Russian people know they are about to be fucked by the government, they try to take out as many rubles as possible, and buy euros and American dollars. They know there is a real possibility that rubles will be massively devalued, and you don’t want to be left with rubles in the bank.    One, they might create some rule that just takes your money or limits the amount of money you can withdraw.  Second, the bank might fail, or if not fail, may simply suspend banking until such time as the central bank gives it more money.  Either way the customer has no access to the rubles.    

Constantine was contacted by cold call salespeople who thought he still lived in Russia - both a Lada salesman and a real estate agent in Moscow who were desperate to make a sale, offering up to 50% discount on the Lada, and a condo with payments not due until late 2026, with assistance reducing the interest rate of the mortgage if he chose to borrow.  One admitted that everyone was going bankrupt and out of business and nobody was buying anything - so now was the time to get the great discounts.   

TL;DR - The great Special Operation  enshittening is finally affecting every aspect of Russian economic life

Edited by Gatorubet
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Posted
22 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

if the price of everything keeps going up, and there are already shortages of some things, it makes sense to take all your money out and buy as many things as humanly possible while they are still available and at a lower price point.  I assume they would focus on food, as having money to buy food - but no food available - is worse than food being available and not having money.  People can borrow money from friends or family, or beg, or trade work for food, or sex for food, or steal food, but there is not a damn thing you can do when there is no food but starve.

 

 

19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And any money locked away in the bank is at risk of the government fucking with it, including limiting purchases electronically (food rationing, etc.).

Cash/rubles in hand can get you stuff on the black market, from the farmer down the road, etc.

These are both true.

However, probably the largest reason for the banking deficit has more to do with them not having money to deposit. X customer withdraws $100, but if there is no customer Y to deposit money, you create negative balance.

I think this could be a combination of a Depression era bank run combined with with the Consumer Debt recession of 2007. 

I'm okay with that.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

 

These are both true.

However, probably the largest reason for the banking deficit has more to do with them not having money to deposit. X customer withdraws $100, but if there is no customer Y to deposit money, you create negative balance.

I think this could be a combination of a Depression era bank run combined with with the Consumer Debt recession of 2007. 

IMG_3960.jpeg.68af2fd7556d91c361f2e8dca52fcf8f.jpeg

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Posted
3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Watching Constantine’s Wednesday economic report, he reminded me of of a different aspect of people taking all their money out.  When the Russian people know they are about to be fucked by the government, they try to take out as many rubles as possible, and buy euros and American dollars. They know there is a real possibility that rubles will be massively devalued, and you don’t want to be left with rubles in the bank.    One, they might create some rule that just takes your money or limits the amount of money you can withdraw.  Second, the bank might fail, or if not fail, may simply suspend banking until such time as the central bank gives it more money.  Either way the customer has no access to the rubles.    

Constantine was contacted by cold call salespeople who thought he still lived in Russia - both a Lada salesman and a real estate agent in Moscow who were desperate to make a sale, offering up to 50% discount on the Lada, and a condo with payments not due until late 2026, with assistance reducing the interest rate of the mortgage if he chose to borrow.  One admitted that everyone was going bankrupt and out of business and nobody was buying anything - so now was the time to get the great discounts.   

TL;DR - The great Special Operation  enshittening is finally affecting every aspect of Russian economic life

This reply was better than mine.

Can you put the link for the Constatine Videos? I'm sure its somewhere on this thread but I'm pretty lazy.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I think this could be a combination of a Depression era bank run combined with with the Consumer Debt recession of 2007. 

I'm okay with that.

And I know analysts were predicting this for a while, going back to when sanctions started being seriously talked about, when Western companies had to cut ties, etc., and it's certainly taken long enough, but I'm glad it looks like there is evidence for it finally happening.

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Posted
On 9/16/2025 at 3:39 PM, PTINS said:

 

image.png.b761a8b98f4253c8ab84667871a7bae9.png

Hitting any Russian Refinery. anywhere is good. just for the optics.

But not all attacks are equal.

The new Saratov Refinery attack appears to be proximate to some manifolds and some above ground piping. Nothing that seems to be critical and out of commission for very long period. A google screen shot shows the fire location (red polygon) relative to the refinery footprint.

IMO, hitting anything in the yellow polygons was probably a much better target than what they hit.

Recently, Ukraine has targeted, and hit, specific process towers. Those are among the highest value targets in Russia, because they reduce fuel production, reduce export revenue, and are very difficult to replace, given sanctions and difficulties Russia will have in getting replacement parts, controls and instrumentation.  Knocking out the main process towers means a 40% reduction in total refining capacity for ~ 6 months, or longer.

Seeing Ukraine specify vessel names and numbers, and hitting them, makes my heart go pitter patter.

Screenshot2025-09-16at2_26_19PM.png.bebdb4eb08c8a836cf35e4f81bda7799.png

 

 

12 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Another refinery hit.

image.png.6694bae6a9fb649859fa398e5c4a6771.png 

"According to preliminary information, the drones hit the ELOU-AVT-4 unit - the heart of the plant. It first cleans oil from water and salts, and then converts it into gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil. A strong fire and a black column of smoke are observed on the plant's territory," the source said.

The fact of damage to the refinery was also confirmed by representatives of the Bashkortostan authorities.

That is the way to do it.  A++

(Sorry, A+. I've been reading the recruiting pages too much)

A surgical strike at the main process tower that removes the impurities and separates the crude oil into the various transportation fuels. The entire vertical column is enveloped in flames, with a single column of thick black smoke (fuel burning >> oxygen supply) rising high into the sky. The longer it burns, the hotter the oil gets, the faster it vaporizes, the easier it burns, the bigger the fire and the hotter it gets. Too hot of a fire to put out with water, you have to remove the fuel source, which means shutting off valves. The instrumentation and automated control systems, if they had any to begin with, and if they survived the initial explosion, probably melted within the first few minutes, meaning the valves would have to be closed manually. 

"disco inferno
(Burn, baby, burn) burn that mother down
(Burn, baby, burn) disco inferno, yeah
(Burn, baby, burn) burn that mother down (burnin'!)
"

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Posted

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Poland scrambles jets after Moscow launches huge aerial assault on Ukraine

 

It came as three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace last night, a move described by the country’s foreign ministry as ‘unprecedentedly brazen’

Stuti Mishra,Alex Croft
Saturday 20 September 2025 15:57 BST

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Polish fighter jets were scrambled overnight to protect the Nato-member country’s airspace during a major Russian air attack across Ukraine.

Polish aircraft and air defences were at the “highest state of readiness," the operational command said on X, as more than 600 drones and missiles were fired at Ukraine overnight in an air attack which killed at least three and injured dozens.

 

European countries are on high alert following a string of Russian incursions into Nato territory, as Moscow’s forces continue to probe and provoke the alliance’s defences.

An incursion of three fighter jets into Estonian airspace last night was dismissed by Moscow as a “scheduled” flight carried out in “strict accordance” with airspace rules.

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian territory on Friday night where they remained without permission for 12 minutes, the Estonian foreign ministry said.

US president Donald Trump has warned of “big trouble” as he grows increasingly dismayed by Russia’s provocations, including repeated drone and fighter jet incursions intoneighbouring countries including Poland and Romania.

 

"I don't love it. I don't like when that happens. Could be big trouble,” he told reporters, adding that he was yet to be fully briefed on the situation.

Nato will meet in Estonia early next week to discuss the Russian incursion.

 
28 minutes ago

More on Russia's overnight air attack

We’re getting more detail through on Russia’s huge overnight air attack on Ukraine overnight.

At least 30 people were wounded in the attack in Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region, local governor Serhii Lysak said. Several high-rise buildings and homes were damaged in the eastern city of Dnipro.

In the Kyiv region, local authorities said there were strikes in the areas of Bucha, Boryspil and Obukhiv. A home and cars were damaged. In the western region of Lviv, Gov. Maxim Kozytsky said two cruise missiles were shot down.

Russia launched 619 drones and missiles, Ukraine's Air Force said this morning, including 579 drones, eight ballistic missiles and 32 cruise missiles were detected. Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralized 552 drones, two ballistic missiles and 29 cruise missiles.

"During the air strike, tactical aviation, in particular F-16 fighters, effectively worked on the enemy's cruise missiles. Western weapons once again prove their effectiveness on the battlefield," the Air Force said in a statement.

Alex Croft20 September 2025 15:57
1 hour ago

Polish and allied aircraft scrambled again overnight

Poland's Operational Command on Saturday said Polish and allied aircraft were deployed again overnight, due to Russian long-range airstrikes in neighboring Ukraine.

"Polish and allied aircraft are operating in our airspace, while ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems have been brought to the highest state of readiness," the operational command said in a post on X.

At 5:40am local time (4:40am UK time), nearly all of Ukraine was under air raid alerts following Ukrainian Air Force warnings of Russian missile and drone attacks.

Shortly after 5am, Polish and allied air forces ended the operation as airstrikes by the Russian Federation against Ukraine were ceased, the Polish command said, adding that the actions were "preventative and aimed at securing airspace in areas adjacent to the threatened area".

In a post on X later, the operational command described the operation as "preventive," and "aimed at securing the airspace in areas adjacent to the threatened zone."

Polish jets have been deployed repeatedly in recent months to patrol the country's airspace in connection with Russian attacks on Ukraine.

Last week, fellow Nato member Romania said it deployed two F-16 jets to intercept a drone that briefly entered its airspace.

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