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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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27 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Clearly, they are running out of willing bodies and equipment.  Troops are refusing to serve.  The public has not felt max sanctions pain yet - it takes a while to filter down to the common man.  And they are hiding deaths for a reason.   All in good time. 

that one economics post the other day said that the brunt of the sanctions won't be felt for 2 years.  that was a big let down.  this thing will be resolved by then.

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12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia doesn’t have the bodies - that’s why they invaded Ukraine when they did - they are  in a demographics race they are losing big time, even though they just took 190,000 kids out of Ukraine (which Russian state media publicly admitted to).  Russia wouldn’t be blowing up bridges around them if they had the bodies to break out.  They are getting sucked into urban fighting which favors Ukraine.   They also can’t seem to take the pockets that Ukraine creates.

Things have changed.  Europeans are making too many moves to wean themselves off of Russian resources in the long run, to turn the taps back on if Russia annexes more territory and calls it a day.

And like dumbasses, Russia mentioned that they are looking at Moldova and Georgia after Ukraine.  They are saying the quiet parts out loud, so everybody realizes that they have to be stopped now, or they’ll just do this shit again in a few years when they’ve got more military-aged men.

Western money is also not coming back - Russia began naturalizing/stealing western assets like real estate, airplanes, assembly lines, etc.   Western companies are fucking furious over that.  They won’t risk investing in Russia in the future because Russia stole billions from them, and also since Russia is just going to reinvade Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia again.

I don't doubt any of what you've typed above but I've also seen how greedy American/Western investors and companies are.  They will be back in Russia; count on it.  Russia is too rich in natural resources to be ostracized for longer than a couple of years. 

I hope you're right but greed usually overcomes good. 

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33 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that one economics post the other day said that the brunt of the sanctions won't be felt for 2 years.  that was a big let down.  this thing will be resolved by then.

Russia cannot keep and hold Ukraine. Ukraine will not give them territory.  If we turn on Ukraine by cutting the money or weapons pipeline, Poland and Sweden and Finland and various threatened baltic states will step up more.   

If you live next to Russia, neutering Russia is your only play (since they seem determined to get the band back together). 

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wow, it really sounds like the Russians are going to execute those Brits and the Moroccan

 

Expecting the Russians to abide by the Geneva convention is a mistake. Expect the Russians to do the same with the Azov guys from Mariupol.

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18 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

That should really help them get the sanctions lifted quicker and garner them more global support....

16 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Expecting the Russians to abide by the Geneva convention is a mistake. Expect the Russians to do the same with the Azov guys from Mariupol.

I’m half expecting them to publicly execute them, film it, and put it online as a warning to others thinking of coming to fight for Ukraine.  

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1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I don't doubt any of what you've typed above but I've also seen how greedy American/Western investors and companies are.  They will be back in Russia; count on it.  Russia is too rich in natural resources to be ostracized for longer than a couple of years.  

The South put an embargo on King Cotton during the civil war to force Britain to side with Richmond. 

That created the Egyptian and Brazilian cotton industries.  I’m not saying that Russia won’t sell any more gas and oil ever….but that business is not going to be returning to normal anytime soon, and it will likely never be the same.   And if siding with Ukraine ultimately gets us into the Ukrainian off-shore oil deposits Putin covets, then a greedy West will support the war continuing. 

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2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The South put an embargo on King Cotton during the civil war to force Britain to side with Richmond. 

That created the Egyptian and Brazilian cotton industries.  I’m not saying that Russia won’t sell any more gas and oil ever….but that business is not going to be returning to normal anytime soon, and it will likely never be the same.   And if siding with Ukraine ultimately gets us into the Ukrainian off-shore oil deposits Putin covets, then a greedy West will support the war continuing. 

Yup. 

And that doesn't even count the positive outcomes for western governments with the general weakening of the Russian military, that Russia is choosing to inflict upon itself. 

It's cynical, but the US is getting off cheap, just supplying tons of weapons and aid, but sacrificing no lives of our fighting forces.  Same thing goes for much of Europe.

Russia made the mistake of using its own military to engage in a proxy war with the entire West, and they're going to pay for it for generations.  Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of assholes.

 

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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Expecting the Russians to abide by the Geneva convention is a mistake. Expect the Russians to do the same with the Azov guys from Mariupol.

Some hot takes here. The Russians won't execute the Ukrainian pows because then Ukraine would just do the same to Russian pows. I think they are threatening to execute the foreign fighters to dissuade others from helping Ukraine, but won't go through with it.

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I’m half expecting them to publicly execute them, film it, and put it online as a warning to others thinking of coming to fight for Ukraine.  

Some hot takes here. The Russians won't execute the Ukrainian pows because then Ukraine would just do the same to Russian pows. I think they are threatening to execute the foreign fighters to dissuade others from helping Ukraine, but won't go through with it.

Correct. The only response to your adversary executing your POWs is to execute theirs. Which Russia may actually want, because it will dissuade their troops from surrendering.
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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think they want to trade them for lessening of sanctions or some shit like that. If they execute them the Ukrainians should NOT follow suit. Instead show they are a nation of rule of law. Build a prison out in the west and show it off to the world. 

Yes.

And to really drive the point home, build that prison entirely out of blown up Russian armor and weapons! :)

 

 

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8 minutes ago, texastough said:

Some hot takes here. The Russians won't execute the Ukrainian pows because then Ukraine would just do the same to Russian pows. I think they are threatening to execute the foreign fighters to dissuade others from helping Ukraine, but won't go through with it.

Both Brits were legitimate Ukrainian soldiers. It's similar to foreign nationals that join the US military.

I agree they'll likely be used as bargaining chips. In terms of the Geneva convention, I'm talking about show trials and torture.

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33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Correct. The only response to your adversary executing your POWs is to execute theirs. Which Russia may actually want, because it will dissuade their troops from surrendering.

 

This.  The Ukrainians are already fighting hard.  Execute POWs, and the Ukrainians will raise the black flag, play Deguelo, and neither give nor receive quarter.  It won't be official government policy, but there will be no way to stop individuals and units from it.  Ask any WWII Marine infantryman.

It's not that Ukrainians will execute Russian prisoners, they just won't have an opportunity to surrender.

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52 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The South put an embargo on King Cotton during the civil war to force Britain to side with Richmond. 

That created the Egyptian and Brazilian cotton industries.  I’m not saying that Russia won’t sell any more gas and oil ever….but that business is not going to be returning to normal anytime soon, and it will likely never be the same.   And if siding with Ukraine ultimately gets us into the Ukrainian off-shore oil deposits Putin covets, then a greedy West will support the war continuing. 

Didn't really create the Egyptian cotton industry, per se.  It amplified it 4-5x, but it hardly created the industry.  

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41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Correct. The only response to your adversary executing your POWs is to execute theirs. Which Russia may actually want, because it will dissuade their troops from surrendering.

 

I honestly think Ukraine would not execute POWs if Russia did, purely for continuing to win the war of public perception.  Ukraine is playing a "Public display of open information" game against Russia, and Russia is getting Goldwater'd as it is.  Ukraine playing by the rules while Russia continues to act like a petulant threenager will further weaken Russia and empower Western Nations to aide/invest/defend Ukraine.   Russia doesn't have an out now, as saying they will execute the POWs and walking it back at the 11th hour will be seen on the world stage as a sign of further weakness and desperation.   Ukraine, as outmanned as they are, have played one of the world's greatest studies of Game Theory correctly in nearly every instance.  

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8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

This.  The Ukrainians are already fighting hard.  Execute POWs, and the Ukrainians will raise the black flag, play Deguelo, and neither give nor receive quarter.  It won't be official government policy, but there will be no way to stop individuals and units from it.  Ask any WWII Marine infantryman.

It's not that Ukrainians will execute Russian prisoners, they just won't have an opportunity to surrender.

But this is what will happen in the contested streets.  

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I don't doubt any of what you've typed above but I've also seen how greedy American/Western investors and companies are.  They will be back in Russia; count on it.  Russia is too rich in natural resources to be ostracized for longer than a couple of years. 
I hope you're right but greed usually overcomes good. 

This up until RU screwed themselves by obviously screwing with UKR grain and making it clear RU intends to control food supply to North Africa and the Middle East to control those areas. Europe is still dealing with aftermath of mass emigration, due to famine, from those areas. RU and UKR combined is about 25% of world’s grain supply.

The grain as a weapon play was when the anti-ship missiles and HIMARs flood gates opened to UKR. There was no longer a let RU bog down for 20 years a la in Afghanistan option after that.
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I’m half expecting them to publicly execute them, film it, and put it online as a warning to others thinking of coming to fight for Ukraine.  

I believe the troops that surrendered were well documented by the Red Cross.

What RU is saying about the prisoners, for domestic consumption, and what they will actually did are likely different.
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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Correct. The only response to your adversary executing your POWs is to execute theirs. Which Russia may actually want, because it will dissuade their troops from surrendering.

 

Ah the Japanese WWII playbook 

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Just now, Brisketexan said:


How the fuck are they gonna get em there? The massive Russian navy?

I was thinking about that. Pacific and Northern fleets could get there. Aircraft could via Turkey - Syria- across the Atlantic. They could drop in some missiles to scare us. Nicaraguan Missle Crisis.

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^Interesting attempt. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll turn into killer fragmentation pieces when hit

The warehouse of the Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant, which produces military optics, is on fire. (Moscow region, Russia)

Destroyed enemy ammunition depot.
 

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