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We have an advantage in communication intercepts. You get the word to the key individuals in the nuclear weapons (tactical and strategic) delivery chain-

“When the order comes, if the order comes, it will be because defeat is certain. Life will be harder in Russia for a long time. Anyone who delivered nukes will be punished as a war criminal. Anyone that disobeys such an order will be seen as a hero, and rewarded “. 

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12 minutes ago, statsman said:

We have an advantage in communication intercepts. You get the word to the key individuals in the nuclear weapons (tactical and strategic) delivery chain-

“When the order comes, if the order comes, it will be because defeat is certain. Life will be harder in Russia for a long time. Anyone who delivered nukes will be punished as a war criminal. Anyone that disobeys such an order will be seen as a hero, and rewarded “. 

“You contribute to stopping the launch from happening, we’ll give you 100 acres in Ohio and you can pick a new washing machine and toilet every year.”  

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1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

“You contribute to stopping the launch from happening, we’ll give you 100 acres in Ohio and you can pick a new washing machine and toilet every year.”  

"We'll even teach you how to flush the toilet. Hell, take Putin out and we'll throw in a bidet."

Edited by Pods
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4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

What do you think happens when it becomes clear that Russia will be defeated?  Putin just says “bummer, ok fall back” and everybody just accepts peace?  Unless you think Putin will be taken out by rational, western-friendly Russians before then, how do you suppose Putin reacts to his ultimate defeat?

Putin controls the messaging. He can spin ANY outcome as victory at home.

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17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Crimea is more important to the national security of Russia.  Without a warm water port, they are in trouble part of the year, especially given how much their ships break down.  And while they will eventually get a warm water port in the north, it'll take more warming/ice melting before that happens.

Just a point of order.  Sevastopol, in Crimea, is a warm-water port.  So is Novorossiysk, at approximately the same latitude but further east on the Black Sea.  And Novo is much larger.  St. Petersburg is also a warm-water port.  So is Murmansk, somewhat unbelievably.  But those ports are disadvantageously located. 

But then so are Sevastopol and Novo, being isolated from the Med and open ocean by the Dardanelles and Straits of Bosporous.

The necessity of a warm-water port is a smokescreen for Russia's Black Sea ambitions.  Russia wants to control the Black Sea region, for a variety of reasons.

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5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Oh yeah?

Yeah. Read the post below.  Putin is scared of his own people (last year, the few times he went out in public, he did it in that bulky coat with a bunch of body armor), COVID, assassination attempts, foreign leaders, etc..  Seriously scared.  There’s a reason why he has his security personnel dress up in different uniforms and costumes for photo ops, rather than mingling with the unvarnished masses.  Those long-ass tables were all about the fear.

3 hours ago, Pods said:

Y'all seriously think this fucking coward would drop a nuke? He is clearly terrified of death. He won't let anyone else get within 15 feet of him. 

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He drops a nuke, his allies are all gone and he's a dead man walking. He will not risk that escalation, which results in him personally being targeted. 

If he was going to drop a nuke, he would have done it on any one of his myriad of bluffs and it would have been when such a decision could have delivered a tactical win. Those days are long gone.

When the stupid motherfucker finally realizes he has no chance to hold his gains, he'll do what gives him the best chance of survival. He'll declare victory and retreat to his bunker. 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Just a point of order.  Sevastopol, in Crimea, is a warm-water port.  So is Novorossiysk, at approximately the same latitude but further east on the Black Sea.  And Novo is much larger.  St. Petersburg is also a warm-water port.  So is Murmansk, somewhat unbelievably.  But those ports are disadvantageously located. 

But then so are Sevastopol and Novo, being isolated from the Med and open ocean by the Dardanelles and Straits of Bosporous.

The necessity of a warm-water port is a smokescreen for Russia's Black Sea ambitions.  Russia wants to control the Black Sea region, for a variety of reasons.

If a ship were to sink in the Bosphorus it would be magnitudes more disruptive than any of the pipeline sabotage  

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5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You’ve been beating the “chill, this is almost over” drum for awhile now.

I think you’re incredibly naive.

It’s not even close to being over, but it can be close to culminating - those are two different things.   Unless Russia produces some tanks and APCs or IFVs to cover its troops, we are about to spend months watching drone footage of even more Russians dying in the open, in trenches, etc.

Right now, this is the Russian playbook:

 

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5 hours ago, Bevo said:

Yes, but I don't know how that happens. If Russia uses tactical nukes, what's our response? If we stop helping Ukraine, it means dumbass countries like Iran and North Korea become emboldened. So that isn't an option. If we, NATO, go in directly, we are directly threatening Russia's existence and Russia will use nukes on the West. So that is a no go as well. So about the only option is a tactical strike directly on Putin and immediate negotiations on a cease fire/de-escalation.

If Russia drops a nuke, I don’t feel like we commit troops, but I do think we completely isolate Russia, as in putting the screws to India, China, anybody else that wants to do business with Russia in any fashion.  We tell them they get the same sanctions as Russia - there is a reason why even China told Putin to his face not to use nukes.  It’s such a horrific idea, that even the Indians and Pakistanis haven’t used them against one another over the decades,

Russia keeps tossing around the idea of nukes, which means they aren’t serious - when Putin said he wasn’t bluffing, that automatically meant he was bluffing - the man is a gambler, not a risk taker.  He’s letting chance take control of the situation, rather than a risk taker who would have calculated the consequences of what could go wrong and then plan accordingly.  A risk taker would not have had multiple fuckups like the convoy north of Kyiv - he would have calculated for it.

While the war games and the tiger teams and their various iterations are a small part of our budget in general, they are probably the most cost-effective thing we do militarily - constantly having people in the military dedicated to playing out worst-case scenarios and then working up how to avoid them.  That stuff doesn’t fly in Russia, because that runs the risk of embarrassing senior leadership.  In the West, most of our senior military leadership has at some point participated in those war games, have been on Tiger teams (or their equivalent) where they play devil’s advocate.  

That’s why we can undertake some risky stuff and then succeed - what we did in the first Gulf War was basically the culmination of all of our war gaming, tiger teams, etc., and so we were able to move a massive amount of materials around the world without much of a hitch.   Meanwhile, Putin’s army runs out of fucking gas not too far from the Belarus border.

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27 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

 

 

 

Holy fuck! 10k of those things?  they launch 40 of those fuckers at a time, and while not a precision weapon, it literally blankets in the area with destruction.   A battalion of 18 launchers deliver 720 rockets.   

it has a 20 KM range, so if you have enough launchers, you will definitely stop Russian human waves.

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43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just to make the above a TLDR:  after the 2014 invasion, Putin had 8 fucking years to plan things out, but he had a 40-mile long convoy run out of fuel and food 60 miles from the Belarusian border.  That speaks volumes about the mindset, training, and competence of his military.  You know there were officers and NCOs who knew they wouldn’t get far inside of Ukraine, but they did it anyways.

I mean want options they had? Question leadership and test Newtons laws of gravity? They said let’s make some money and hope he changed his mind or gtfo

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https://news.yahoo.com/russian-general-poisoned-letter-laced-115952476.html

Quote

A Russian general was poisoned by a letter laced with an unknown toxin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said in a Telegram post on Monday.

Kadyrov, who is also a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his top general in Ukraine has been poisoned after handling a letter that was sent to him on February 8.

Quote

Apti Alaudinov, who commands the Akhmat special forces, picked up a letter that was "saturated with a poisonous substance," Kadyrov said. The general "sensed this by the bitter, specific smell and took action in time: he treated his hands and washed his nasal cavity," Kadyrov added.

The Chechen leader said that Alaudinov and other personnel who came into contact with the envelope sought immediate medical assistance in a Moscow clinic and are now "on the mend." "Serious consequences were avoided," Kadyrov added.

Quote

It is unclear who sent the letter or what exactly the substance was, but Kadyrov said an investigation was underway and that there are " already results."

They don’t know who sent it, but they already have results .

cheryl-cole-okay.gif

The article describes him as a close Putin ally, but he’s also gotten a little big for his britches and criticized some of Putin’s inner circle.  And Putin has a history of poisoning people.   Sounds like somebody is sending a message.

 

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