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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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Fucking bastards. Hammer Russian cities. 

I am horrified, and heartbroken as I pen these words - another residential building in Kryvyi Rih, the home of innocent civilians, has been cruelly obliterated by a ballistic missile launched by russians. This is not the plot of some novel or movie. This is reality. Our reality. This is Ukraine. Is this a reality that seems to have been accepted? But let’s be crystal clear: There is nothing normal about this. What kind of world are we living in where launching missiles at residential buildings in Europe becomes a mundane headline? A world where half a building disappears, taking with it the lives of those who called it home? This is not normal, and it should never be viewed as such. We must demand justice for the victims of these and others atrocities made by russia. We cannot keep silence and neither should you, nor your governments. This is not normal, and we must refuse to accept it as such. Please, give Ukraine all the weapons we need. Help us to destroy the evil, because today it’s us, but tomorrow it can be your home.

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Ominous thing to think about from NYT.  Russias economy is doing just fine. 
 

Quote

A Spending Boom Fuels Russia’s Wartime Economy, Raising Bubble Fears

The economic strength has helped to maintain popular support for Vladimir Putin’s war, but some have warned the state-led spending is threatening the country’s financial stability.

July 31, 2023Updated 8:17 a.m. ET
 

People walking around Red Square in Moscow, with the Kremlin in the background. Red Square in Moscow this month. A state-led spending boom has propped up Russia’s economy, despite the country facing the most far-reaching campaign of sanctions imposed by Western nations in modern history.Natalia Kolesnikova/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

After Russia invaded Ukraine, Anna, a Russian entrepreneur, made a snap decision to open a real estate agency, hoping to create a safety net from the economic fallout of the conflict. The career change has paid off.

Within weeks, she landed a deal for a stately 18th-century apartment, with parquet floors and high ceilings in the prestigious center of Russia’s former imperial capital of St. Petersburg. Since the war, the owner had stopped coming to Russia, allowing her client to buy it for roughly 40 percent below its current value.

“We in Russia have become accustomed to living in a state of permanent crisis,” said Anna, who declined to use her full name given the political scrutiny. She has bought two investment properties for herself and brokered the sale of 150 others in the past year. Amid the constant shocks, she said, people are looking for “a window of opportunity” to secure their income.

Her business has been underpinned by a state-led spending boom that has propped up the national economy despite the swiftest and most far-reaching campaign of sanctions imposed by Western nations in modern history.

The economic strength has created a sense of well-being among Russians and helped to maintain popular support for President Vladimir V. Putin’s war. But some economists, as well as Russia’s respected central bank chief, have warned that the spending is threatening the country’s financial stability.

 

A man sits on a bench on a city street, eating. Behind him is a banner on a large multistory building in Russian. A banner showing the tactical insignia of Russian troops in Ukraine, in Moscow last year. The country’s strong economy has helped bolster Russians’ support for the war.Alexander Nemenov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The concern is that the government is pumping money into the economy too quickly. As Russia’s invasion has descended into a war of attrition, Mr. Putin has poured the country’s sizable financial reserves into expanding military production, while also showering poorer Russians with higher pensions, salaries and benefits like subsidized mortgages.

“Everyone keeps buying at these subsidized rates,” said Anna, 44, who recently finished paying off one of her five existing mortgages. “And who is paying for it? The state.”

The result has been a spike in demand for everything from beach holidays to tank chassis — all of which is fueling inflation. In an effort to prevent the economy from overheating, the central bank in July raised rates more than expected.

The bank expects the Russian economy to grow up to 2.5 percent this year, a faster than normal pace that would allow it to recover practically all economic activity that has wiped out since the start of the war. Unemployment is near a record low and real wages have been growing steadily this year, as state factories and private companies compete for scarce labor.

Russian industrial executives have been boasting to Mr. Putin in public that their plants are raising output to levels last seen in the Soviet era and working around the clock in three shifts to meet the military demand. In St. Petersburg, local textile workshops say they are struggling to find qualified workers and materials to meet a deluge of orders for military uniforms, while in the industrial region of Sverdlovsk, a local tank factory recently has had to contract hundreds of inmates from local prisons to try to meet its targets.

 

Four men in dark suits walk through a factory. Behind them can be seen what looks like part of a helicopter. President Vladimir V. Putin visiting an aviation factory in Ulan-Ude, Russia, in March, in a photo released by state media. Mr. Putin has poured much of the country’s sizable financial reserves into expanding military production.Vladimir Gerdo/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The strong growth figures have upended expectations among some Western officials that the aftershock of going to war would push Russia into a prolonged recession and trigger a popular backlash against Mr. Putin’s government.

As recently as three months ago, Western analysts expected the Russian economy to decline 0.9 percent this year, according to a survey of 19 investment banks and other research institutions compiled by the British firm Consensus Economics. This month, their mean projection has swung to 0.7 percent growth.

Lending has expanded rapidly since the invasion, as the government has sought to stimulate growth and bolster military output. Corporate loans increased 19 percent in the year to June, according to the Russian central bank’s figures.

The combined value of mortgages handed out by Russia’s top 20 banks rose 63 percent in the first half of this year, according to the state-run lender, Dom.RF, and the real estate research firm Frank Media. In the first three months of the year, one out of every two new mortgages was subsidized by the state, through various social programs that provide loans to first-time buyers, including soldiers, at preferential interest rates.

“You can serve and not have to think about much, because you will have a guaranteed home of your own,” a Russian soldier with the call sign Domovoi said in a video recorded by the Defense Ministry this month, referring to subsidized mortgages.

 

A woman in a green coat stands at a window in a mostly empty apartment, looking outside. A real estate agent inspecting an apartment in Moscow in February. State-subsidized preferential interest rates have helped drive a rise in mortgages handed out by Russian banks.Yuri Kadobnov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The impact of public spending has been particularly pronounced in poorer regions on the periphery of the country that provide the bulk of military production and soldiers. Regions bordering Ukraine and the occupied Crimean Peninsula have also benefited economically from major investments in military fortifications and the arrival of tens of thousands servicemen, even as residents have suffered from nearly daily retaliatory Ukrainian rocket and drone attacks.

Soldiers are sending home salaries that usually outstrip average local earnings several times. Families of those who die collect compensation that can surpass their annual income.

Much of that money is poured back into local economies, as sanctions have limited Russians’ ability to travel overseas. Hospitality spending in Russia rose 12 percent in the first four months of this year, compared to the same period in 2022, according to an analysis of official statistics by the Russian geographer Natalia Zubarevich; in Crimea, spending in bars and restaurants more than doubled.

When the bridge linking Crimea to Russia came under attack earlier this month, a traffic jam made up primarily of Russian tourists heading to the occupied peninsula stretched for more than five miles, according to local media.

“For some, it’s a new adventure,” said a Russian state news anchor as she described how tourists had to switch to a ferry after an explosion collapsed part of the bridge, killing a family. “On the sea you can take photos and enjoy the views.”

The economic high may not be sustainable.

The expansion of spending and the decline of Russia’s oil and gas revenues have pushed the nation’s budget into deficit.

In the first five months of the year, Russia’s federal government spent in nominal terms nearly 50 percent more than in the same period of 2021, according to calculations by the Moscow-based Gaidar Economic Institute. 

The country’s energy revenues from January to May have halved compared to the same period last year, as sanctions forced Russia to sell its oil at a discount and European nations slashed purchases of Russian natural gas.

The recovery is also severely constrained by Russia’s chronic worker shortage, a problem that Mr. Putin has few means of solving.

Mr. Putin’s decision to mobilize 300,000 men for the front has removed many blue-collar workers from the economy. Hundreds of thousands of predominantly white-collar Russians have left the country in protest of the war or to avoid mobilization. And even before the war, the population was in a long-term decline.

Despite the rising wages, Russia has been unable to cover the worker shortage with migrants, as sanctions have reduced their ability to send earnings home. 

In announcing the recent rate hike, Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, repeatedly mentioned labor shortages in guarded remarks to the press, a sign of her concern with the scale of the problem. She also said the demand for goods and services was outstripping supply, feeding inflation and threatening financial stability.

“As an economist, I don’t know how this bubble can be deflated,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, and a former adviser at the Russian central bank. “One day it could all crash like a house of cards.”

Alina Lobzina contributed reporting.

 

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7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fucking bastards. Hammer Russian cities. 

It wasn’t random   That was Zelenskyy’s home town.  This is Putin being petty.

Speaking of Putin…getting a little desperate.

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday, imposing fines for failure to notify or ensure the presence of those who are subject to mobilization, as well as for failure to facilitate mobilization.

According to the law, the fine for officials will be 60,000 to 80,000 rubles ($650 -$870) for officials and 400,000 to 500,000 rubles ($4350-$5440) for collective entities.

Quote

Putin also signed a law raising the fine to 30,000 rubles ($326) for failure to appear at the draft board without a good reason.

Previously, the fine for failure to appear at the draft board on the agenda without a good reason ranged from 500 to 3,000 rubles ($5-$32).

 

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3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

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You really want those 70 year old Chechnya war officers called up.  Recipe for success!

Ignore the stats showing that the Russian male life expectancy is <checks notes> 65.  I doubt that military cohesion will be impacted by these officers dying left and right.

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52 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting. Russia would never touch an Israeli ship. Seems like there is a work around. USN providing oversight recon support. 

And another work around:

Quote

Kyiv and Zagreb have agreed on the “possibility” of using Croatian ports on the Danube river to export Ukrainian grain, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after a meeting with his counterpart Gordan Grlic-Radman. 

“We agreed on the possibility of using Croatian ports on the Danube and the Adriatic Sea to transport Ukrainian grain,” Ukraine’s Kuleba said on Monday, according to the Ukrainian government website. “Now we will work to build the most efficient routes to these ports and make the most of this opportunity.”  “Every contribution to unblocking exports, every open door is a real, effective contribution to the world's food security. I am grateful to Croatia for its constructive assistance,” he added.

 

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6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I hadta Google to know for sure.  Croatia is a NATO member.  An attack on their grain elevators gets you an Article 5 violation all up in your business.

So is Romania. Once a vessel docks in either country, they are under Sovereign protection. 

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19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Using the Danube was always on the table. The Black Sea approaches and port capacity were issues. The Adriatic would be cool. The ports can handle a lot more cargo and there are rail networks. 

But how does this help? How can they avoid, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria?

 

image.png.a3712442c4a7ca7acc95b00cdff722ab.png

Edited by Bevo
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Romania is the best option. But it is hard to see Austria blocking train shipments. 

And we need to remember any extra movement from Ukraine to external ports makes prices go up. Constanta is a pretty well equipped port if my days at DPW serve me. Was a while that I researched ports in the region. 

How many in the Developing World are going to die due to Putin and Russia's Fuckery?  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

But how does this help? How can they avoid, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria?

 

image.png.a3712442c4a7ca7acc95b00cdff722ab.png

I don't think you have to avoid Austria, but you're right to point out Serbia and Hungary. If the goal is to ship the grain up the Danube to the eastern border of Croatia from Romania, there are still some other issues in getting it out of Ukraine.

image.thumb.png.0110e9d6cbe85e6567da22b7825735c7.png

In this map above, there are only two rail lines that get you to the Danube at two river ports in Reni and Izmail, and the Reni grain silos were just hit by the Russians last week. Okay, so keep the grain on the rail to Galati in Romania. You still have one problem: that rail line runs through the heart of Tiraspol, the "capital" of the fake country of Transnistria. Then, there's the issue of getting the grain to Izmail from the rail line to Odesa. See that arrow to the right? There's a vulnerable-as-shit rail bridge right there.

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9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Romania is the best option. But it is hard to see Austria blocking train shipments. 

And we need to remember any extra movement from Ukraine to external ports makes prices go up. Constanta is a pretty well equipped port if my days at DPW serve me. Was a while that I researched ports in the region. 

How many in the Developing World are going to die due to Putin and Russia's Fuckery?  

 

 

I hadn't considered shipping the grain out of Odesa to Constanta. Just treat it like the intracoastal waterway?

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8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I don't think you have to avoid Austria, but you're right to point out Serbia and Hungary. If the goal is to ship the grain up the Danube to the eastern border of Croatia from Romania, there are still some other issues in getting it out of Ukraine.

image.thumb.png.0110e9d6cbe85e6567da22b7825735c7.png

In this map above, there are only two rail lines that get you to the Danube at two river ports in Reni and Izmail, and the Reni grain silos were just hit by the Russians last week. Okay, so keep the grain on the rail to Galati in Romania. You still have one problem: that rail line runs through the heart of Tiraspol, the "capital" of the fake country of Transnistria. Then, there's the issue of getting the grain to Izmail from the rail line to Odesa. See that arrow to the right? There's a vulnerable-as-shit rail bridge right there.

Yep, it is a shit show. There is no simple answer. 

Of note, the Danube has some treaties where ships are given open traffic. Agree about the bridge. 

 

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I hadn't considered shipping the grain out of Odesa to Constanta. Just treat it like the intracoastal waterway?

Yep, that is what I am thinking. But will the Russians then just sink the Ukrainian ships moving the grain? 

This situation sucks. 

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22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

But how does this help? How can they avoid, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria?

Given how united NATO and the rest of the EU is, if any of those countries try to blockade Ukrainian grain, they will enter a financial fuck around and find out scenario.   They might also find those ships under NATO guard.

It would also be really fucked up to try and blockade Ukrainian grain in general.  The optics of that would be staggering.

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8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think @blacklab knows more, but the P8’s carry torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.  If they are being escorted by American P8’s, that’s interesting.

That caught my eye as well. A bad ass plane designed to sink Russian ships. Hmmmm.... 

So if they sink NATO flagged ships in NATO waters is that Article 5? 

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5 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Against Geneva Conventions to mask a military vehicle as a civilian one

 

Well, add that to the list of war crimes, then.

What teeth do the Geneva Conventions even have? Who's going to stop the Russians from violating them?

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