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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is an incredibly complicated problem to be sure.  Any brief analysis is sure to be over simplified.  In regard to the Swiss, its hard to make deals with people that aren't really your partner, and make no mistake, the Swiss aren't partners with anyone.  In a broad stroke (and believe me this is broad and way oversimplified) the best option is to phase them out of as much as possible.  The Swiss are the way they are because the world has allowed them to be under their bullshit noble notion of neutrality.  You want rid of the problem, stop doing business with them and take the gloves off on allowing them to do business outside of western norms.  

Will this happen, most likely not.  Are there instances where they prove beneficial, yes (say you want to do something clandestine).  Does the good outweigh the bad, absolutely not.  If we want to live in a world with more transparency, which I believe we do, then the Swiss way of doing things has to be snuffed out.  We (the western world) perpetuate their way of doing things simply by continuing on business as usual.  

I'm not going to say their finance industry isn't a major part of their success, because of course it is. I'd also argue that while it's assisted by its strict privacy laws, even if the laws were less robust, they'd likely be a major part of the financial system. Their expertise in banking goes beyond simply hiding money. 

But they're a powerhouse manufacturing country in all kinds of high end industries. Try operating a modern hospital without using Swiss equipment. 

I just think it's easy to talk about who "we" are going to cut out of the western financial system. That takes a huge commitment from an inordinate number of cultures who don't see things the same way. How you and I view the Swiss is going to be very different from how the Germans, French, and Italians view the Swiss, especially among Swiss populations for whom those are their native languages.

But you're expressing your frustration, and on that account I can certainly agree with you. I think there are a number of people in important positions throughout Europe who are extremely frustrated with Switzerland's insistence on its neutrality preventing other countries from helping Ukraine in the way they want to. I do think there are going to be repercussions from that in terms of customer flight from depending on the Swiss defense industry. But I feel like that's the most that can be reasonably hoped for.  

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EU nations and others bought Swiss arms for decades because the the wisdom of everyone on the continent held that there would never be a conventional war that involved Europe and that the United States would shoulder the burden of fighting one if it did. So defense procurements and force structure priorities went:

1. Maximum domestic social benefit

2. Potential to make friends within Europe

3. Potential to funnel cash to political allies, especially through industrial cooperation 

4. Keep costs down 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Priority 157: Operational requirements

Buying shit from the Swiss makes perfect sense if you bought the assumption that none of this stuff would ever be used, and that’s what Europe as a whole believed. 

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18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is an incredibly complicated problem to be sure.  Any brief analysis is sure to be over simplified.  In regard to the Swiss, its hard to make deals with people that aren't really your partner, and make no mistake, the Swiss aren't partners with anyone.  In a broad stroke (and believe me this is broad and way oversimplified) the best option is to phase them out of as much as possible.  The Swiss are the way they are because the world has allowed them to be under their bullshit noble notion of neutrality.  You want rid of the problem, stop doing business with them and take the gloves off on allowing them to do business outside of western norms.  

This.  They get many of the benefits of NATO/EU, without having to be members, and this allows them to do what they do and pretend to be above the fray. 

If they don't want to play ball with ammo shipments from other countries' stockpiles when Russia threatens the stability of Europe, then many countries will stop buying military goods from them.  It's not even about "punishing" them either, it's more about their defense industry can't be relied upon in any way when Europe is threatened (but not Switzerland directly), and countries should act accordingly when awarding defense contracts in the future.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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I can imagine a Ukrainian victory where NATO-trained troops, combined with arms from the west and U.S. intelligence allow Ukraine to start a counteroffensive attack, move dramatically, use ATACMS and the lime to cut Russian supply trains and encircle them, delivering an absolute victory. 
 
I can imagine a Ukrainian defeat where poor Ukrainian leadership and lack of ammunition (firearms, mortars, etc.) lead to a long quagmire and then US domestic politics leads to us looking for a diplomatic exit path. 
 
I hope the odds on the latter are low, real low. That said, the US public has a short attention span and doesn’t like to back losers. No CR, but I can name precious few US politicians from either party that aren’t front runners. (We’re only backing Ukraine as much as we are because they looked like winners early on). 
 
That would be a big problem. The POTUSA went to Kyev and said we were backing them for as long as it takes. They have a paved stone with his name on it. I was proud of him for doing it, not for how it looked, but for the commitment that it meant. 
 
My feeling is that the way you win a close fight is by putting all you can into it, because the other side is doing the same. Russia is pouring men into what they, themselves, are calling a meat grinder, but if they can pull something out of this that they can call a “win”, they’ll consider it worth it. 
 
And it will be a long while before anyone takes the US seriously again. 
 
That’s why I think the US should be spending a hell of a lot more on defense, enough to go onto a wartime footing in ammo production. Anything less, using reserves and hoping they’re not needed for a new shooting war, is just trying to thread a needle to a happy outcome. It’s a strategy based on hope. 

Edited by statsman
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1 hour ago, statsman said:

I can imagine a Ukrainian victory where NATO-trained troops, combined with arms from the west and U.S. intelligence allow Ukraine to start a counteroffensive attack, move dramatically, use ATACMS and the lime to cut Russian supply trains and encircle them, delivering an absolute victory. 
 
I can imagine a Ukrainian defeat where poor Ukrainian leadership and lack of ammunition (firearms, mortars, etc.) lead to a long quagmire and then US domestic politics leads to us looking for a diplomatic exit path. 
 
I hope the odds on the latter are low, real low. That said, the US public has a short attention span and doesn’t like to back losers. No CR, but I can name precious few US politicians from either party that aren’t front runners. (We’re only backing Ukraine as much as we are because they looked like winners early on). 
 
That would be a big problem. The POTUSA went to Kyev and said we were backing them for as long as it takes. They have a paved stone with his name on it. I was proud of him for doing it, not for how it looked, but for the commitment that it meant. 
 
My feeling is that the way you win a close fight is by putting all you can into it, because the other side is doing the same. Russia is pouring men into what they, themselves, are calling a meat grinder, but if they can pull something out of this that they can call a “win”, they’ll consider it worth it. 
 
And it will be a long while before anyone takes the US seriously again. 
 
That’s why I think the US should be spending a hell of a lot more on defense, enough to go onto a wartime footing in ammo production. Anything less, using reserves and hoping they’re not needed for a new shooting war, is just trying to thread a needle to a happy outcome. It’s a strategy based on hope. 

If the latter happens, the shame of being an American will, of course, have the opposite effect to our politics as it should. 

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31 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It's like looking at the pairs of shoes next to the Titanic

 

Putin is truly wrecking Russian demographics for a few generations to come and he gives no fucks.

It's a little bit of the Peter Principle in action - he should never have reached as high as he did - he would have been a very competent head of the FSB, just like Shoigu was somewhat competent as the head of Russian Emergency Services or whatever it's called, but both of them moved up a few levels too much and their incompetency is on full display.

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3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

And losing at least a few hundred a day

 

It would take me weeks to shit on every one of those graves, but I'd give it a shot.  Better yet, remove the markers, plow the earth flat, and plant the whole cemetery in sunflowers.  Harvest the seeds, extract the oil, and send it to the next of kin with an explanation of the source.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

AD systems being taken out?  All those old HARMs we shipped them?

Also, it’s amazing how little the Russians care for one another.  No wonder Putin can send them off to slaughter without much outcry back home.  

Hate to break it to you. When one of your team dies, they don't need the ammo or grenades anymore. You scavenge so you can fight another day.

 

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

That must be terrifying. You're in the dark, thinking that you're safe, and a grenade drops next to you. Those guys will have PTSD one day afraid to close their eyes.

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9 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Hate to break it to you. When one of your team dies, they don't need the ammo or grenades anymore. You scavenge so you can fight another day.

 

That must be terrifying. You're in the dark, thinking that you're safe, and a grenade drops next to you. Those guys will have PTSD one day afraid to close their eyes.

Grabbing gear, especially when such little is provided off a fallen soldier isn't surprising, nor is leaving given that he certainly would have thought he might be under fire at any moment.  That's just a matter of practicality given the situation for them.  

In so far as PTSD, the good news, not many of them will ever see home again.  The bad news, many of them who do will have massive problems and I suspect gun violence in Russia is going to explode (many of them will figure out a way to keep weapons and send them home).  If you think the VA is bad (and as someone who deals with them on a regular basis i can attest that they are) at least we have something.  I'm sure the suicide hotline alone has saved countless lives for us, and while it isn't much it's something.  

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2 hours ago, Superhero said:

Hate to break it to you. When one of your team dies, they don't need the ammo or grenades anymore. You scavenge so you can fight another day.

Yes, but it looks like the guy is taking watches and wallets.  Not ammo and rations.

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The WSJ had a summary and stays on where we are. This should be the shareable link:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-gird-for-a-decisive-spring-campaign-after-a-bloody-winter-a3beef16?st=il1x0masdzd1q2q&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

tldr: Ukraine and Russia both need ammo. Whoever gets it first will have a great advantage. 
 

 

Edited by statsman
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