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15 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I doubt that. The Russians and Chinese have had little military coordination.  The Russians have no training in advanced Chinese post soviet tech. it be like us dropping off a Patriot Battery in Khiv. They wouldn’t know how to use it in connection to their other equipment and coordinate. 
 

 My guess is the Russians need basic supplies so bad they are willing to sign away the rights to all sorts of mineral, grain, and oil concessions to get it.  

China is going to do exactly what the Soviet Union did with China during World War II--give them enough aid to keep them in the war, but make sure they never have enough to actually win it.  That's good ol' fashioned Communist ideology of helping the capitalist powers weaken themselves with internecine warfare.  But for China, it's also good business.

China doesn't want Russia to lose the war.  That would entail the strengthening not just of Nato, but also of American-led defensive alliances right around the world.  And it would encourage America and its allies to use sanctions as a tool of coercion (which the United States is already using vis-a-vis Xinjiang).  

But China also doesn't really want Russia to win the war.  An emboldened Russia isn't something China wants.  They'd much rather have Russia be endlessly subject to western sanctions and only be able to sell their resources to China (at deeply discounted prices).  

So China is going to keep them in the war as long as they can.  I wouldn't expect China to give a whole lot of advanced technology.  But stuff like night vision, ammunition, trucks, boots, uniforms, etc--yeah, I could definitely see that.

And query whether that's not in our interest, as well.  In a world facing severe inflation, it's not necessarily to our disadvantage that China turns the Russians into a bunch of serfs (at least so long as so much of our manufactured goods come from China).  China is in need of resources; isn't it the best possible outcome that their acquisitive focus be turned to Russia (rather than to American allies in the region)?

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

China is going to do exactly what the Soviet Union did with China during World War II--give them enough aid to keep them in the war, but make sure they never have enough to actually win it.  That's good ol' fashioned Communist ideology of helping the capitalist powers weaken themselves with internecine warfare.  But for China, it's also good business.

China doesn't want Russia to lose the war.  That would entail the strengthening not just of Nato, but also of American-led defensive alliances right around the world.  And it would encourage America and its allies to use sanctions as a tool of coercion (which the United States is already using vis-a-vis Xinjiang).  

But China also doesn't really want Russia to win the war.  An emboldened Russia isn't something China wants.  They'd much rather have Russia be endlessly subject to western sanctions and only be able to sell their resources to China (at deeply discounted prices).  

So China is going to keep them in the war as long as they can.  I wouldn't expect China to give a whole lot of advanced technology.  But stuff like night vision, ammunition, trucks, boots, uniforms, etc--yeah, I could definitely see that.

And query whether that's not in our interest, as well.  In a world facing severe inflation, it's not necessarily to our disadvantage that China turns the Russians into a bunch of serfs (at least so long as so much of our manufactured goods come from China).  China is in need of resources; isn't it the best possible outcome that their acquisitive focus be turned to Russia (rather than to American allies in the region)?

I don’t know about that last part, but the idea of the Chinese selling back to the Russians second and third line military equipment originally purchased from…..Russia, is pretty amusing.

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9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don’t know about that last part, but the idea of the Chinese selling back to the Russians second and third line military equipment originally purchased from…..Russia, is pretty amusing.

Seems to be reliable intel coming from the UA side, so hopefully it's just 3rd rate equipment, supply and logistics stuff, food, etc.  Now if this ramps up, this becomes a proxy war fast and in comes NATO air power.

*does China intervening make nuclear escalation more or less likely?  Seems they would have every bit the vested interest in keeping things conventional and now have a seat at the table?

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5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

That's the problem with cutting off Russia from outside information, and Russia is blocking sites like Facebook, Instagram, etc. If you control the information, you control the people. 

It's too late.  The die is cast.  They won't be converting their positions anytime soon.  Even if they had access to outside information, it would hardly make a dent.

The only language that works in situations like this one is pain.  It's stupid, irrational, horrific, asinine, evil, etc.......and also, it's true.

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17 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Seems to be reliable intel coming from the UA side, so hopefully it's just 3rd rate equipment, supply and logistics stuff, food, etc.  Now if this ramps up, this becomes a proxy war fast and in comes NATO air power.

*does China intervening make nuclear escalation more or less likely?  Seems they would have every bit the vested interest in keeping things conventional and now have a seat at the table?

I would think if the Chinese are supplying the Russians, it’s with the understanding that this thing will stay conventional. I mean, the Norilsk nickel mine doesn’t have a lot of value If the entire northern Hemisphere is glowing.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

It's too late.  The die is cast.  They won't be converting their positions anytime soon.  Even if they had access to outside information, it would hardly make a dent.

The only language that works in situations like this one is pain.  It's stupid, irrational, horrific, asinine, evil, etc.......and also, it's true.

Information is always power.  You think the citizens in Britain didn't experience pain?  It galvanized them because they had a common external foe and a common shared suffering.  Now, had they known (hypothetical obviously) that their own leaders started an unjust war on a non-aggressive country....resulting in massive losses of life and their own suffering, you create that same galvanizing force, but against their own leaders.  

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1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I would think if the Chinese are supplying the Russians, it’s with the understanding that this thing will stay conventional. I mean, the Norilsk nickel mine doesn’t have a lot of value If the entire northern Hemisphere is glowing.

My thoughts exactly

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3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Dafuk?

 

3 hours ago, Longhornlove said:

Guess you have to read it to understand, I didn't therefore I don't.

Yeah, that thing was a huge TLDR but I suffered through the numerous repeats.

  1. The supply line was so close to Kyiv the Russians thought they would eventually get it in play and waited a few days before they recognized the problem (If it had been destroyed they would have been forced to go backup sooner). This delay in recognizing the problem gave UA time
  2. After several days/week of holding out for the big convoy to get unstuck they finally recognized the problem and by then they had to scrounge equipment from far away and that added several more days.
  3. Using one large convoy instead of several smaller ones meant all their eggs were in one basket and they thought they would eventually make it viable, that hope created more delays in dealing with reality.

 

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Information is always power.  You think the citizens in Britain didn't experience pain?  It galvanized them because they had a common external foe and a common shared suffering.  Now, had they known (hypothetical obviously) that their own leaders started an unjust war on a non-aggressive country....resulting in massive losses of life and their own suffering, you create that same galvanizing force, but against their own leaders.  

The regime was already going to insure that the people were cut off from all meaningful sources of information.  This entire exercise is a part of the larger play of "make the USSR great again."  It's insanely stupid, retrograde, and destructive, but.......have you heard of the Russian mindset?

A majority of the Russian people have chosen to be retrograde, and support this war.  That ship has sailed.  Let them suffer.  I'm out of sympathy for them.

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

A majority of the Russian people have chosen to be retrograde, and support this war.  That ship has sailed.  Let them suffer.  I'm out of sympathy for them.

I don't believe this.  I believe for the most part people are people.  They live.  They die.  They want to believe their own governments have their best interests at heart and have some level of support.  

The modern "pravda" is feeding into this.  Asymmetry of information is rarely a good thing.  Which is why I think the one concession you make is open every avenue for information to their population.  ISP's, phones, all of it.  Let them see what the world sees.  Let them see the video's we post here daily, and how the world views them. 

Arguably one of the FIRST things a dictator does is try and control the narrative.  We can put a dent in that without giving much of anything else.  Let them put a face on their suffering.  Focus on the older demographic that still bleeds "red".  Putin knows what he's doing in this regard.  He grew up in the KGB/FSB, it's his background to exploit.

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25 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

That's the problem with cutting off Russia from outside information, and Russia is blocking sites like Facebook, Instagram, etc. If you control the information, you control the people. 

Yes agreed. I would add though that if your world view has been shaped and reinforced for years because you've consumed a particular media diet of propaganda, it takes something like an extreme intervention to break the cycle. We know that's not going to happen within Russia so I can't disagree with the reported Ukranian outlook about Russians.

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I don't believe this.  I believe for the most part people are people.  They live.  They die.  They want to believe their own governments have their best interests at heart and have some level of support.  

The modern "pravda" is feeding into this.  Asymmetry of information is rarely a good thing.  Which is why I think the one concession you make is open every avenue for information to their population.  ISP's, phones, all of it.  Let them see what the world sees.  Let them see the video's we post here daily, and how the world views them. 

Arguably one of the FIRST things a dictator does is try and control the narrative.  We can put a dent in that without giving much of anything else.  Let them put a face on their suffering.  Focus on the older demographic that still bleeds "red".  Putin knows what he's doing in this regard.  He grew up in the KGB/FSB, it's his background to exploit.

I don't disagree.  My point is that the ship has sailed.  The information pipeline is getting more restricted by the day.  The volume and reach of any information going INTO the new USSR has slowed to a trickle, and won't make a difference.

They want to be Soviet.  So let them be....within their borders.  Let them suffer.  Let them die.  Let them bury their sons by the truckload.  Kill them in Ukraine.  If there are enough Russians willing to fight back and end their autocracy, let them expend their blood to do so.  Ukraine is shedding hers, by the gallon.  Let the Russians step up and pay the price for a change.

Edited by Brisketexan
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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't disagree.  My point is that the ship has sailed.  The information pipeline is getting more restricted by the day.  The volume and reach of any information going INTO the new USSR has slowed to a trickle, and won't make a difference.

They want to be Soviet.  So let them be....within their borders.  Let them suffer.  Let them die.  Let them bury their sons by the truckload.  Kill them in Ukraine.  If there are enough Russians willing to fight back and end their autocracy, let them expend their blood to do so.  Ukraine is shedding hers, by the gallon.  Let the Russians step up and pay the price for a change.

We could "turn them back on" overnight (ISP's) with no other sanction issues that I can see and at least help facilitate a broader understanding.  If nothing else, it gives Putin another variable to have to manage while juggling so many....and nothing gets a leader more anxious than their own people in unrest.  Just seems like a missed opportunity.  

I remember an old Jocko podcast talking about the best way to "deal" with N. Korea.....his solution:  air drop millions of active cell phones to give people a window to the outside world.  There would be bloodshed, but it would be a MF'er for them to manage.  Same with Putin.  

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

We could "turn them back on" overnight (ISP's) with no other sanction issues that I can see and at least help facilitate a broader understanding.  If nothing else, it gives Putin another variable to have to manage while juggling so many....and nothing gets a leader more anxious than their own people in unrest.  Just seems like a missed opportunity.  

I remember an old Jocko podcast talking about the best way to "deal" with N. Korea.....his solution:  air drop millions of active cell phones to give people a window to the outside world.  There would be bloodshed, but it would be a MF'er for them to manage.  Same with Putin.  

I don't disagree.  We should do so....to the extent that having that highway open doesn't materially increase our vulnerability to cyberattacks.  We should absolutely be waging the information war as well as we can.

I just don't hold out much hope for it.  Do it, but it's a gambit that will fail.

We're at war with Russia and a majority of the Russian people.  We didn't choose this.  They did.  So be it.

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35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The regime was already going to insure that the people were cut off from all meaningful sources of information.  This entire exercise is a part of the larger play of "make the USSR great again."  It's insanely stupid, retrograde, and destructive, but.......have you heard of the Russian mindset?

A majority of the Russian people have chosen to be retrograde, and support this war.  That ship has sailed.  Let them suffer.  I'm out of sympathy for them.

what do you think the premium on that was and was tiktok on the exclusion list?

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Just now, Trey3216 said:

I know TankTok is certainly on the exclusion list for those John Deere tractors.  

Is that the site for the discerning porn consumer whom prefers ladies with a “thicker track”??

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't disagree.  We should do so....to the extent that having that highway open doesn't materially increase our vulnerability to cyberattacks.  We should absolutely be waging the information war as well as we can.

I just don't hold out much hope for it.  Do it, but it's a gambit that will fail.

We're at war with Russia and a majority of the Russian people.  We didn't choose this.  They did.  So be it.

Something to point out is Russia isn't like N Korea or Cuba. The average Russian is as tech-savvy as the average American. There are VPNs and other ways around the Russian firewall. They're not completely isolated. They can find their way to western media just as easily as the rest of us.

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1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

Something to point out is Russia isn't like N Korea or Cuba. The average Russian is as tech-savvy as the average American. There are VPNs and other ways around the Russian firewall. They're not completely isolated. So to say they're completely cut off probably isn't true.

Yep, which is why I said go after the older, "redder" crowd that is less tech savvy but maybe has a small online presence.  Play on their feelings of nationalism, etc

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9 minutes ago, elfenix said:

what do you think the premium on that was and was tiktok on the exclusion list?

Man, as a matter of habit, I shy away from typing "ensure" because it makes me feel old....

ensure-original-products-tile.jpg

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Anyone feeling froggy?

Ninja time

Let me see what I can do.  Let's start:

Must have 5+ years combined experience from either military and/or private military experience with at least 1 year of overseas combat experience.  Nope.  Ok fine...
– Have strong working knowledge of how to implement Soviet-era and NATO small arms.  Check...sort of.  I have an SKS, had a few AK's
– Have critical thinking skills with ability to work through complex problems quickly and efficiently for the preservation of life Well Fuck
– Ability to navigate with map and compass Meh, sort of...
– Candidate must be very physically fit  Define "very".....
– Possess a high-degree of professionalism, responsibility, resolve and maturity Fuck me, I'm out
– Must be able to brief, persuade, and instruct others on objective requirements Shit
 

I mean, I have to check "no" on all of those except how to operate small arms and the navigation skills.  And, well, my job is to persuade people to do stuff, so I kinda have that one.

But I presume there's another box for "must have a shitload of internet message board rep points," right?  So, I'm in.

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4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Something to point out is Russia isn't like N Korea or Cuba. The average Russian is as tech-savvy as the average American. There are VPNs and other ways around the Russian firewall. They're not completely isolated. They can find their way to western media just as easily as the rest of us.

They WEREN'T like N. Korea.  But as of today, aren't they pretty close?  I thought I'd read that VPN access was even being slammed shut.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They WEREN'T like N. Korea.  But as of today, aren't they pretty close?  I thought I'd read that VPN access was even being slammed shut.

And don't you need equipment and subscriptions for that kind of stuff? Kind of hard when your money just became almost worthless and a ton of tech companies aren't accepting credit card or other transactions from Russia.

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RE: ISP and internet access in Russia.  Article is a few days old.   Also, even with open Internet pipes into Russia, this does not stop the Russians from limiting the content coming into and out of their country:

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/03/why-russias-disconnection-from-the-internet-isnt-amounting-to-much/

Quote

Rumors of Russian Internet services degrading have been greatly exaggerated, despite unprecedented announcements recently from two of the world’s biggest backbone providers that they were exiting the country following its invasion of Ukraine.

Just as ISPs provide links connecting individuals or organizations to the Internet, backbone services are the service providers that connect ISPs in one part of the world with ISPs elsewhere. These so-called transit providers route massive amounts of traffic from one ISP or backbone to another. Earlier this week, Russian ISPs saw the exit of two of their biggest providers. One was Lumen, the top Internet transit provider to Russia. The other was Cogent, one of the biggest Internet backbone carriers in the world.

 

 

Quote

A transit provider disconnecting its customers in a country as big as Russia has never happened before, Doug Madory, the director of Internet analysis at network analytics company Kentik, said earlier this week. He and others said the move would constrain the overall amount of bandwidth coming into and out of Russia.

“This reduction in bandwidth may lead to congestion as the remaining international carriers try to pick up the slack,” he added. Some people predicted Russia might even find itself effectively severed from the global Internet.

 

Quote

But so far, that hasn’t happened, researchers from network intelligence firm ThousandEyes said on Friday. Network metrics show that connectivity continues as it has historically.

There are several reasons for this. One is that the exit of a single transit provider from a country the size of Russia—or two providers, in this case—doesn’t have enough of an impact to degrade overall service. Another reason is that both Lumen and Cogent continue to provide transit services to the outposts of major Russian ISPs as long as those outposts aren’t located inside Russia.

 

Spoiler

“Despite the notion that some US-based transit providers would ‘disconnect’ Russia from the Internet—no single transit provider severing ties with Russian ISPs would achieve such an aim,” members of the ThousandEyes Internet research team wrote. “That said, many transit providers, both US-based and non US-based, continue to connect their global customers to one another—that may include providing transit to and from Russian users via major Russian ISPs located at exchange points not on Russian soil.”

The post included images showing that Cogent continues to provide a major pipeline into and out of Russia through its relationship with Russian backbone providers JSC Rostelecom (AS 12389) and CJSC Rascom (AS 20764).

(note:  some graphics at the link)

The researchers also showed how both Cogent and Lumen (referred to by its former name Level 3 by ThousandEyes) continue to supply bandwidth courtesy of a border gateway protocol announcement by JSC Rostelecom advertising routes from one of its Russian ISP customers, RSNET (AS 8291), to Cogent, Lumen, and TeliaNet.

“Much has been speculated recently about their potential role in disconnecting Russia from the rest of the global Internet,” the researchers added, referring to Cogent and Lumen. “However, Russia’s connection to the rest of the world via these vital networks remains intact, with major Russian ISPs, such as JSC Rostelecom, continuing to peer with global transit providers outside of Russia, just as they did long before recent events. As a result, the Russian people continue to have access to the global Internet—at least at an infrastructure level.”

Both Lumen and Cogent told CNN on Friday that they were trying to balance the need to prevent their networks from carrying cyberattacks backed by Russia with their convictions for a free and open Internet. Cogent’s CEO told the news network that his company had limited its action to around 25 customers incorporated in Russia and directly on Russian networks. Russian businesses that rely on Cogent’s network outside the country through non-Russian state providers remain unaffected.

“We felt that the downside of having the possibility that these connections could be used offensively outweighed the negative of terminating some services,” Cogent CEO Dave Schaeffer said.

Lumen cited a similar rationale for its limited move.

“We decided to disconnect the network due to increased security risk inside Russia,” Mark Molzen, the company's global issues director, told CNN. “We have not yet experienced network disruptions, but given the increasingly uncertain environment and the heightened risk of state action, we took this move to ensure the security of our and our customers’ networks, as well as the ongoing integrity of the global Internet.”

The ThousandEyes post was published before the London Internet Exchange—one of the Internet’s biggest exchanges for networks around the world to swap or “peer” traffic with each other—would stop routing for Rostelecom and MegaFon, Russia’s No. 2 mobile phone operator and a top ISP. It’s not clear how that termination will affect transit service for the country.

ThousandEyes said that while wholesale traffic going into and out of Russia is currently normal, traffic to select Russian sites—both from inside and outside the country—was spotty. Much of the disruption—coming in the form of dropped traffic that often reached a 100 percent loss of packets—was the result of distributed denial-of-service attacks or attempts by Russian networks to fend off the attacks.

“Russian sites have also shown evidence of distressed network conditions indicative of DDoS attacks, as well as behavior consistent with route filtering, firewalling of traffic and, in some cases, cloud-based DDoS mitigation,” company researchers wrote. “The latter blocking mechanisms have predominantly impacted users external to Russia.”

 

 

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