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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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If the thought that the southern area near Crimea/Donbass/etc are now going to be Putin's offramp, and Ukraine is going to seriously consider that, then Ukraine had better accepted into NATO within 6 months of the "end", or Vlady will be right back on the horse as soon as he can trade enough oil with China to build a new army and develop a better strategy.

In my gut, Zelensky should give Putin a Deadwood Counter offer:

 

Now, I can easily say that from the comfort of my chair behind my computer. It's not my blood getting spilled or my country being destroyed, so the deals may look far more agreeable to them. But it sure seems like the Ukes have the ruskies on the ropes and very strong will to inflict some revenge and get their land back.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Now, I can easily say that from the comfort of my chair behind my computer. It's not my blood getting spilled or my country being destroyed, so the deals may look far more agreeable to them. But it sure seems like the Ukes have the ruskies on the ropes and very strong will to inflict some revenge and get their land back.

If the very sovereignty of your land and people was at stake, AND if you had ANY meaningful ability to fight back....wouldn't you fight?  Most peoples would answer that "yep," Ukraine is no exception.  Even if we stop shipping javelins there tomorrow, they'll fight with their own RPGs, AKs, armor, etc., until they're out of it.  And then they'll make IEDs.  Which is also a real problem, because Ukraine has little incentive to back down.  What, you'll slaughter MORE civilians?  Yeah, you'll do that no matter what -- Russia's willingness to break all rules and norms makes the prospects of negotiating with them to save lives pointless.  Russia will stop killing Ukrainians when it is forced to do so, and not a moment sooner.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If the very sovereignty of your land and people was at stake, AND if you had ANY meaningful ability to fight back....wouldn't you fight?  Most peoples would answer that "yep," Ukraine is no exception.  Even if we stop shipping javelins there tomorrow, they'll fight with their own RPGs, AKs, armor, etc., until they're out of it.  And then they'll make IEDs.  Which is also a real problem, because Ukraine has little incentive to back down.  What, you'll slaughter MORE civilians?  Yeah, you'll do that no matter what -- Russia's willingness to break all rules and norms makes the prospects of negotiating with them to save lives pointless.  Russia will stop killing Ukrainians when it is forced to do so, and not a moment sooner.

I guess I wasn't clear on what I meant by that. I know what I'd do (I'd fight) and I know that I hope that they continue fighting.

What I was attempting to convey is that I can't dictate to Ukraine/Zelensky what they should do with their own blood/sovereignty when it doesn't affect me in the slightest and I don't have to worry about my neighborhood being bombed or my family dying.

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Yeah this is all about consolidating gains now.  Russia miscalculated, but they frequently do and are patient.  They’ll dig in, upgrade and resupply, go through a new recruitment cycle, then attack again in a few years.  
 

Unless they get their ass kicked hard enough.      I just don’t see a scenario where that happens so this is going to go on again in another five or six years.
 

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3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Yeah this is all about consolidating gains now.  Russia miscalculated, but they frequently do and are patient.  They’ll dig in, upgrade and resupply, go through a new recruitment cycle, then attack again in a few years.  
 

Unless they get their ass kicked hard enough.      I just don’t see a scenario where that happens so this is going to go on again in another five or six years.
 

Bingo.  Which is why Ukraine has to fight to the finish now.  It's the smart play for Ukraine.  They are in this fight, they have the best match-up they're ever going to have, so they need to leave it all on the field.

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31 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Make me a mod and I'll ban Lobo for 72 days.

I will happily leave the site for 72 days if you think that’ll make your family love you again.  But it won’t change what you did.  

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15 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Now, I can easily say that from the comfort of my chair behind my computer. It's not my blood getting spilled or my country being destroyed, so the deals may look far more agreeable to them. But it sure seems like the Ukes have the ruskies on the ropes and very strong will to inflict some revenge and get their land back.

 

Time is on the UKR's side...IF....they can withstand these attacks on population centers.  It's the same tired strategy we say in Syria.  Russia isn't seemingly all that sophisticated in their strategic innovation.  Pound civies and try to use as leverage.  Thing is, the UKR is using their own earlier strategies against them.  Cut off supply lines, pick them apart, don't give them large targets to attack, and consolidate and keep up the pressure.  Turn this is an urban meatgrinder and harass them at every step as the Afghani's did.  Break their spirits as they break their material and bleed the Russian purse dry.  A few weeks in and already Russia is running low on all kinds of gear.  What few cruise missiles and other guided munitions they still have, more than half fail.  They are in real trouble if this keeps up.

 

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4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Out and about, essentially as close to the front lines as one can reasonably expect as the leader of the free world.  

Quite the contrast with that long table, hiding in the Urals fellow.  All those shirtless horseback riding pics are so much toilet paper when it comes to nut cuttin' time.

Polish President Duda was supposed to greet but his plane had a tech issue and had to turn back to Warsaw. Duda grabbed another jet and he was on the ground after AF1 arrived.  POTUS got some pizza eating in with the 82nd and the big honorary meeting will be in Warsaw.  He was on the ground about 4 hours in southeast Poland. 
 

Whoever is in charge of the Polish jets is gonna get his ass chewed. 

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Send unarmed ships, under foreign flags, and dare the Russians to attack them?  Not sure what other moves would be available.  But yes, gran couilles.

Unarmed....sort of.  You forget the 4 French nuke subs that quietly slipped out of port earlier this week.  Any guesses on where they are now or where they are near....

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6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Big, hairy, croissant smelling French balls just flopped out on to the table

 

 

Woah, let's hold on a second.  Croissants smell pretty damned good, especially freshly made. 

 

 

Edit.  Now I want one with some butter. 

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Can't really slip one through the Bosporus.

You don't have to.  You can park them and their significantly more accurate cruise missiles on any number of doorsteps.  It's risky, no doubt, but my guess is they are in the area and on HIGH alert to help safeguard the passage of those very ships.  Especially with Turkey as one of the supporting actors in this play.  

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12 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I don't know what the Russian training schedule is like, but here in the US it takes 12- 16 weeks just to get your basic combat infantryman ready for duty. More specialized AIT can add a whole year onto that. Especially in the signal corps aka the Army's IT dept.

And as you probably know, the "end" of that initial training is really the start of the guy moving on to learn how to do things in real life under the eyes of his sergeants. Basic Training/AIT just weeds out some who aren't quite ready to be there, and makes the rest of them trainable.

tldr: Imagine new hires where you work. Now imagine them on zero sleep, getting shot at.

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Ukraine cannot give Russia an inch.  If they don't make Russia know without a doubt that the results will be the same or worse next time, it will happen again, and be worse for Ukraine.  It's not Ukraine's decision; Russia made that inevitable when they invaded.  Like some defense analyst said in an article linked upthread, now is the time for Ukraine to go postal and leave no doubt.

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53 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

If the thought that the southern area near Crimea/Donbass/etc are now going to be Putin's offramp, and Ukraine is going to seriously consider that, then Ukraine had better accepted into NATO within 6 months of the "end", or Vlady will be right back on the horse as soon as he can trade enough oil with China to build a new army and develop a better strategy.

In my gut, Zelensky should give Putin a Deadwood Counter offer:

 

Now, I can easily say that from the comfort of my chair behind my computer. It's not my blood getting spilled or my country being destroyed, so the deals may look far more agreeable to them. But it sure seems like the Ukes have the ruskies on the ropes and very strong will to inflict some revenge and get their land back.

 

 

what do you think "Rusky idi na khuy" means?

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58 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Can't be overstated the loss of key personnel.  This is their shot, unless the thinking is they are going to weather sanctions, somehow find the capital and resources to rebuild and modernize a broken and aging army, and go for round two?  They have to take and HOLD their gains, and be prepared to fight off attack after attack which will further degrade their already depleted forces.  The UKR is motivated.  We just need to keep feeding them and let them bleed Russia dry.  The longer this draws out, the less and less popular at home it becomes (as we saw for them in Afghanistan)

And the irony is the Russians were relying on their mobility to quickly win the war, and to keep their guys from being shot up, and they would use their mobility to attack the presumably fixed positions of the Ukraine military.  Thousands of tanks, thousands of trucks, thousands of armored infantry transports.

Turns out the Ukraine military is incredibly mobile, and now the Russians are losing their tanks and APCs and are going into fixed positions, where the Ukrainians have 24/7 eyes on them thanks to civilians with cell phones and UAVs/drones.  Oh, and the Russians are running with unsecured comms.

And when you go into fixed positions, you better have aerial superiority and a damned good reinforcement and logistics chain, because otherwise shit turns into reenactments of General Custer's little fiasco.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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38 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Big, hairy, croissant smelling French balls just flopped out on to the table

 

 

32 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Woah, let's hold on a second.  Croissants smell pretty damned good, especially freshly made. 

 

 

Edit.  Now I want one with some butter. 

 

 

 

Is now time for some stinky cheese puns?

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bianna is a UT grad, and for a second was wondering what stupid shit she was saying, but turns out she's pointing people to the stupid shit that FT is saying.

Also, Bianna needs to stop stalking me.  All of these brilliant, worldly, strong-willed attractive brunettes need to leave me alone.  It's getting tiresome.

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47 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I don't know what the Russian training schedule is like, but here in the US it takes 12- 16 weeks just to get your basic combat infantryman ready for duty. More specialized AIT can add a whole year onto that. Especially in the signal corps aka the Army's IT dept.

I saw a Russian training video.  I think this is the whole extent of conscript training.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Poland is giving off a real FAFO vibe these days.  Of all the NATO members the Danes and Polish are probably the most ready to mix it up.  

Unlike all the western couch-warriors, Poland families have been fucked with for centuries and doesn't suffer fools and have a VERY clear understanding of where they are in terms of the geopolitical landscape.  

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2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Poland is giving off a real FAFO vibe these days.  Of all the NATO members the Danes and Polish are probably the most ready to mix it up.  

I suspect that a significant amount of our diplomatic efforts these days are some version of this WRT Poland:

26BQ.gif

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12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Good article on why Russia is floundering in a lot of areas where NCOs would have normally made sure they wouldn't flounder, and why the US (and Western nations) are able to do what they do because of their NCOs.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-noncomissioned-officers-us-military/

 

 

 

I wonder if the Russian tendency to cram their infantry into those death-trap idiot vehicles isn't that that is the one way to guarantee that at least some of their troops will show up where their commanders want them to. They'd live longer dismounted, but would they all just disappear down the alley, and not the alley that leads to the enemy?

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22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just go behind the Hancock HEB like the rest of us, or the I-35 underpass nearby, plenty of manservants are in those places and available to work for very cheap.

 

I had to read this, and contemplate a proper and thoughtful response.  After several drafts, here it is.

Boo.

Fucking.

Hoo.

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