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The Athletic - College football leaders ready to discuss eight-team Playoff


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https://theathletic.com/708538/2018/12/12/college-football-playoff-expansion-eight-team-support/

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The first four years of the College Football Playoff were considered a success. The four-team format has been more universally accepted than the old BCS system, and it has kept fans engaged throughout the country. But ahead of Year 5’s national semifinals featuring Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, there is a sense of growing discontent with certain aspects of the CFP system, including the selection committee’s deference to the SEC and what some consider unfair treatment of UCF.

Now, a number of influential voices in college football are calling for a serious look at expansion.

There is a groundswell of support to expedite expansion before the end of the CFP’s initial 12-year contract with ESPN in 2026, with many telling The Athletic they support an eight-team format.

“It’s an appropriate thing to begin thinking about,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told The Athletic this week.

There have been a number of informal conversations involving college football’s most important power brokers in recent weeks and months. The growing concern is that a system designed to nationalize the sport of college football — including a championship game that is played at different venues and will be held in the Bay Area for the first time this season — is being undermined and regionalized with teams from the Southeast regularly playing each other.

“Everyone has the same feeling; expansion is inevitable,” said Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, who served on the CFP’s selection committee from 2014-2016. “When you can do it, and I think we need to serve more people. I think four was the right way to get started. In my opinion, we need to take a look of adding more teams into the Playoff, giving more opportunities. …

“I don’t know whether we’re serving all of our people now, when you have some leagues — our league (the Big Ten) as an example. Two years in a row, we don’t have anyone represented. The Big 12’s been the same way. The Pac-12’s been the same way.”

The Big Ten champion has been left out of the four-team Playoff each of the past three seasons, and the Pac-12 has missed three of the past four fields. Alabama has participated in each of the five Playoffs, including last year when the Crimson Tide did not win their division.

Some people with direct knowledge of the conversations involving commissioners, athletic directors and presidents declined to speak on the record because they feel they need to publicly support the current four-team model. Others feel they need to speak out in support of expansion to get the ball rolling. The midway point of the Playoff contract with ESPN — the 2020 season — is fast approaching. It would make sense to expand then, after the six semifinal bowls have all hosted an equal number of times.

“Twelve years is a good run if everything was working well,” West Virginia president Gordon Gee told The Athletic. “But it’s always good to take a look at it. We now have five years’ worth of experience. There’s nothing wrong with hitting the button and saying, let’s take a look at what’s working and what’s not working, and we don’t need to wait for another six years to make sure that we live out a contract.”

In a statement to The Athletic on Tuesday, an ESPN spokesperson said, “We have no involvement in the competitive makeup of the CFP.”

Alvarez said the criteria for selection has been confusing, with the weight carried by conference championships and strength of schedule varying year to year or even week to week. The three leagues that have missed the Playoff multiple times all play nine-game conference schedules. Even the rankings have irked those keeping tabs on strength of schedule; Florida finished No. 10, earning a trip to a New Year’s Six bowl, with two of the Gators’ wins this season coming against FCS opponents.

CFP executive director Bill Hancock said Tuesday that “there have not been any conversations in our meetings with commissioners or presidents about expanding or starting to think about a new format. There will come a time for that at some point, as we get toward the end of the 12-year contract.”

For some, that time is now.

An eight-team format with a designated Group of 5 spot also would quell the chorus of those who believe it’s unfair that a team like UCF — with two consecutive undefeated seasons and limited opportunities to schedule Power 5 opponents on an annual basis — does not get a shot at playing for a national championship. The highest the Knights have been ranked in the CFP selection committee’s Top 25 has been No. 8, nowhere near close enough to get consideration for a top-four spot.

“I also want to be very clear: I think that there’s arrogance of us not taking a look at someone like the University of Central Florida, just saying, ‘Well, they’re not worthy of it,’ ” Gee said. “Maybe they are worthy of it based upon a number of considerations that need to be taken into account.”

Said Alvarez: “UCF should have that opportunity.”

Chuck Neinas, a former Big 12 commissioner, has sketched out his preferred plan for an eight-team Playoff. He’s given it to Alvarez, Bowlsby, Hancock and other influential figures in the sport, initially to stoke conversation. Now those conversations are happening.

“The Playoff enjoys a level of support that I think is rather extraordinary,” Bowlsby said. “Would that (approval rating) go up if there are more teams involved? Probably. Does that mean it would avoid controversies? No, because you’ll always have arguments about the ninth and 10th spots. …

“Then, there’s the matter of how you do it. The devil’s always in the details.”

Neinas’ eight-team model would include the five Power 5 conference champions, the top Group of 5 champion and two at-large spots. Conference championship games would be eliminated. The regular season would end the weekend after Thanksgiving, with quarterfinal games played on campuses the following weekend. Winners would advance to New Year’s Six semifinal games at that year’s designated bowl sites, as usual.

Here is how this year’s field would have looked, with conference championship games not included:

2018-alt.png

“We need to maintain interest in the regular season,” Neinas said. “If you knew that your conference champion in the Pac-12 was going to get into the Playoff, that manages to propel continued interest throughout the season.”

Using Neinas’ preferred template, players on teams that reach the national championship would still play the same number of games in a season that they do now, and the season would end at the same time, on a Monday night about a week into January. There are other proposals and tweaks that could be worth discussing, too, multiple sources said; this is a relatively simple format that can serve as a jumping-off point.

“I do notice, though, that playoffs, generally, in other sports, in the professional sports, are determined on the field, and this is different than that,” Ohio State president Michael Drake told The Athletic.

As one Power 5 athletic director put it, an eight-team Playoff format is not rocket science. It makes sense for many parties. “This sport doesn’t do logical well,” he said.

For expansion to work, compromise would be required, much like it was when the four-team model was created.

The SEC is arguably the conference with the most to lose if a new system abolished conference championship games. It boasts the gold standard for conference championship games in terms of interest.

The SEC also has been the only one of the five power conferences to send multiple teams to the CFP, as it did last year with Alabama and Georgia. The SEC likes the status quo, even though expansion could allow for more than two SEC teams to make the Playoff field.

“(When) people talk about let’s do this and let’s do that as far as a bracket size, you have to remember a few things,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey told reporters before the SEC title game. “One, this is Year 5, and I think the first four years have worked remarkably well. … I think four is healthy. I think the debate is healthy. And I think the debate is an important part for all of us who are thoughtful looking at our future, without any prediction of outcomes. …

“Would it benefit us (to expand)? This is a year for us that’s been different as far as the high-end success and then the depth of success. I think it looks to the future in a way that creates expectations for this to repeat, but I don’t know that that means we’d be 1, 4, 6. The history indicates there’s others who have a little bit more access than we might in a larger bracket. But I haven’t looked at it that way.”

A number of athletic directors and commissioners of other conferences have a different perspective. They feel that the system is designed to benefit the SEC, and they point to examples from this year’s final rankings as evidence: Florida at No. 10, despite the two FCS games; LSU hovering at No. 7 after its blowout loss to Alabama; the Gators and Tigers making New Year’s Six bowl games ahead of Penn State and Washington State, which both played nine conference games; and a two-loss, non-champion Georgia slotted ahead of Ohio State, a one-loss conference champion.

“It’s very confusing, and you have different explanations and you have 13 different people taking a look and evaluating and then expressing their opinion, then you’re voting,” Alvarez said. “Then, one person has to explain why you came to the conclusion, and I think it’s very inconsistent and confusing.”

The 13-member selection committee works hard and can figure out a way justify the order it comes up with each December — but that doesn’t convince the skeptics who believe that SEC teams get more credit and higher standing in this system than others from other leagues with comparable résumés. For example, Stanford’s four losses this year all came against ranked opponents, but the four-loss Cardinal were not ranked in the final CFP Top 25. Three four-loss SEC teams were, with two in the top 20.

Though coaches are not directly involved in the process, a number have spoken up about the need for change or, at the very least, clearer protocol and principles moving forward. Penn State coach James Franklin spoke just last week about the need for standardization across the board, in terms of strength of scheduling and in measuring the value of a conference champion.

“Either everybody is playing a conference championship or everybody is not,” Franklin said. “Everybody is playing the same number of conference games. You can’t have one team that’s not in a conference and everybody else is in a conference. It’s all gotta be the same. … Everybody either plays I-AA opponents or nobody plays I-AA opponents. I think it starts there. Everybody has divisions or everybody plays round-robin. …

“When one conference who is playing less conference games than we are and has been playing I-AA opponents for a long time, when there’s been discussion the last couple years of them possibly getting two teams in the Playoff and us have been left out the last three years, I think it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to not at least have the discussion. Not to get defensive, not any of those things, just, hey, it’s at least worth a discussion.”

As one Power 5 athletic director said, “Sometimes it feels like they’re deciding based on recruiting rankings and not the games actually played on the field.”

This season’s national championship game will take place Jan. 7, 2019, in Santa Clara, Calif. That morning, the 11 university presidents and chancellors who make up the CFP’s Board of Managers will meet. The Management Committee, which includes the 10 commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, also will meet with them that day.

Changes could come from either committee. The commissioners could make a recommendation, or the board could direct them. The board is specifically tasked with developing, reviewing and approving annual budgets, policies and operating guidelines. According to the CFP, it has authority over all aspects of the company’s operations.

Expanding the Playoff would protect conference champions from being disadvantaged by differences in scheduling, and it would guarantee access for teams like UCF to a system that has been built to exclude them.

And support is growing for expansion to happen sooner than many think.

“If you’re going to expand, you go to eight,” Alvarez said. “I initially thought six just as a compromise, and it would be better than four. But the more I think about it, I think eight is probably the answer. You would have opportunities now for everyone to be represented.”

 

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Finally!  I'd still like to eventually see a 16 team playoff but there's no way there shouldn't at least be an 8 team playoff.  Under the current CFP system, they have made the decision that unless you are a P5 school, there is nothing that you can do to make the playoff, nothing.  You can go undefeated for 2 straight years and still don't get a shot at it and I think that's insane.  Expanding it to give more teams the opportunity is definitely the right way to go.  Is UCF better than Alabama?  No, but if they go 2 years without losing a game, shouldn't they at least get the opportunity?  The FCS has something like a 24 team playoff or something like that, there's no reason the FBS can't have at least an 8 team playoff.

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Important paragraph from the article:

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Neinas’ eight-team model would include the five Power 5 conference champions, the top Group of 5 champion and two at-large spots. Conference championship games would be eliminated. The regular season would end the weekend after Thanksgiving, with quarterfinal games played on campuses the following weekend. Winners would advance to New Year’s Six semifinal games at that year’s designated bowl sites, as usual.

 

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Just now, DigglerontheHoof said:

So, how would no CCG in the SEC, B1G, ACC and PAC work?  There's no way they could have a true round robin.  That doesn't add up. 

Go back to the old days of the Big Ten. Whichever team went last doesn't go again. I'm sure everyone will be overjoyed.

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

You wouldn't have to eliminate CCGs, but if you leave it up to the conferences to determine a champion, it could end up happening.

lol at  that

SEC w/ 14 teams means every fking game would have to be an SEC game....  which means no more OOC games ever, and no cupcakes at all.  

it also means if there is a good chance that only 8 or 9  SEC teams will be allowed to play in a bowl game every year because they need to have a winning record, and with no cupcakes to pad their wins....

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3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

lol at  that

SEC w/ 14 teams means every fking game would have to be an SEC game....  which means no more OOC games ever, and no cupcakes at all.  

it also means if there is a good chance that only 8 or 9  SEC teams will be allowed to play in a bowl game every year because they need to have a winning record, and with no cupcakes to pad their wins....

I think it's more likely that the leagues would internally set up a more arbitrary method of determining a champion, if they moved away from CCGs.

Like the Big 10 did for the roughly 20 years between Penn State joining and Nebraska joining.  They didn't have round robin, teams didn't play every year (11 teams, 8 conference games), and they decided a champ.

They could also just keep the CCG.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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10 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

lol at  that

SEC w/ 14 teams means every fking game would have to be an SEC game....  which means no more OOC games ever, and no cupcakes at all.  

it also means if there is a good chance that only 8 or 9  SEC teams will be allowed to play in a bowl game every year because they need to have a winning record, and with no cupcakes to pad their wins....

I’d say any game versus the SEC east is a cupcakes

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29 minutes ago, slorch said:

I get a kick out of how they make it seem so complex...and dramatic.

 

Should have done it from the beginning...with 16 teams you pootenannies.

I agree with your first comment.  There are literally thousands of youth league commissioners that come up with playoff formats across the country.  God knows we have enough bowl games and more than enough top facilities to host said games in every region of the United States.  The market and interest is certainly there to make it happen.  I will say that the PAC 12 championship game was pathetic in terms of crowd turnout.  Does anyone even give a shit about football in that part of the country?

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19 minutes ago, CastHorn said:

That’s alot of games to ask from an amateur student athlete. I guess removing conference championships would help. Bowl games would be even more meaningless, regular season games wouldn’t have the same importance either.

Bowl games are meaningless now and most of them have been for almost a generation. Regular season games already don't matter. Texas loses to Maryland or USC and we are close to done for the playoffs, while the SEC and most ACC teams play an FCS and 2 G5s on top of only 8 conference games and they get the chance to get 2 teams in the playoffs. What the fuck is your point?

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26 minutes ago, CastHorn said:

That’s alot of games to ask from an amateur student athlete. I guess removing conference championships would help. Bowl games would be even more meaningless, regular season games wouldn’t have the same importance either.

1. Texas highschool players will be competing in their 15th game of the season this week.  Should they win, gasp,, they’ll play game #16 next week. This is even after they had two scrimmages before the season started.

2. Every regular season game in the current format DOES NOT MATTER.  It’s been proven repeatedly.  People just love to say it, I guess...

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49 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

Then they can all get together in collie station with aggy and have a sheepfucking contest. 

The top 6 seeds, though, should be conference champions, with the at-large teams seeded #7 and 8; make winning your conference mean something.  If ND wants to bitch, then join a fucking conference. FCS, D2, and D3 schools play 15 games to win the title; adding one shouldn't be a big deal.  If so, then go to 11 games and drop the bodybag FCS games.

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

Yep, The SEC bias in the playoffs a d tge consecutive years of no P12 schools is going to make this happen sooner rather than later. Curious the logistics of it and what bowl games it absorbs.

once 8 spots are available, the SEC bias will get even worse. 4-5 teams will get in each year. 

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44 minutes ago, slorch said:

Every regular season game in the current format DOES NOT MATTER.  It’s been proven repeatedly.  People just love to say it, I guess...

"Regular season games don't actually matter in college football. Now excuse me, I'm going to advocate for a system where an 8-4 Northwestern team that lost at home to Akron is one win away from contending for the national title."

Edited by satyanash
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This seems like the first real effort to call the SEC on their BS scheduling and the CFP on their bias toward the SEC.  It will probably take all of the other conferences uniting against the SEC to pull off the move to 8 teams, but that seems to be happening.

I like it.

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7 minutes ago, satyanash said:

"Regular season games don't actually matter in college football. Now excuse me, I'm going to advocate for a system where an 8-4 Northwestern team that lost at home to Akron is one win away from contending for the national title."

Here's the thing -- who did Northwestern play to get to that point. My example doesn't really work in this case because NW didn't play anybody and didn't really beat anybody either. But with an 8-team playoff (five P5 conference champs, best G5 team and two at-larges) you are at least putting together a template that creates a clear path for every P5 team to win the national championship. Job 1 -- win your fucking division/conference. If you do that, you're in. The rest is window dressing, i.e. seeding. That's fair. That's democratic. It should've happened five years ago.

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8 is perfect to actually make winning a p5 conference matter.  there should be 3 at-larges (one should be auto'd to a g5 depending on their ranking - top 12 maybe?).

it should never go to 16.  this isn't march madness or the nfl playoffs.  8 will decrease regular season importance, but not so much to render it meaningless.

ccgs should still exist, but it should be up to the conference.  b12 shouldn't consider it unless we go back to 12 teams/2 divisions.  will be interesting to see conferences squirm about a ccg potentially booting a team ranked in the top 5 out of the playoff because of the ccg.  if texas had beaten wva, we would've been exactly in that position, and a loss to ou would've really fucked us. 

remember - this isn't the "top 8" from the polls.  there's a good chance that the pac12 or possibly the acc (once clemson settles down) champ won't be in the top 8.  and depending on what they decide to do with notre dame and g5, you're looking at having an sec team ranked in the top 6-7 really fighting to get in.

there will still be plenty of drama i'm sure, and instances of dodging the ccg will end up helping teams.  think the horns in 2004/2008.  we would squarely be in the field without having to play the ccg.

i still think 3 rounds will make fan travel challenging, considering fans will have less than a week to make arrangements, possibly 3 weeks in a row.  that's a lot.

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I’d say any game versus the SEC east is a cupcakes


Big 12 Top 7 vs. SEC East by Massey Composite:

1. Oklahoma (6) - Georgia (3)
2. West Virginia (19) - Florida (12)
3. Texas (21) - Missouri (15)
4. Iowa State (32) - Kentucky (16)
5. Oklahoma State (48) - South Carolina (31)
6. TCU (54) - Vanderbilt (42)
7. Texas Tech (63) - Tennessee (62)

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

8 is perfect to actually make winning a p5 conference matter.  there should be 3 at-larges (one should be auto'd to a g5 depending on their ranking - top 12 maybe?).

it should never go to 16.  this isn't march madness or the nfl playoffs.  8 will decrease regular season importance, but not so much to render it meaningless.

ccgs should still exist, but it should be up to the conference.  b12 shouldn't consider it unless we go back to 12 teams/2 divisions.  will be interesting to see conferences squirm about a ccg potentially booting a team ranked in the top 5 out of the playoff because of the ccg.  if texas had beaten wva, we would've been exactly in that position, and a loss to ou would've really fucked us. 

remember - this isn't the "top 8" from the polls.  there's a good chance that the pac12 or possibly the acc (once clemson settles down) champ won't be in the top 8.  and depending on what they decide to do with notre dame and g5, you're looking at having an sec team ranked in the top 6-7 really fighting to get in.

there will still be plenty of drama i'm sure, and instances of dodging the ccg will end up helping teams.  think the horns in 2004/2008.  we would squarely be in the field without having to play the ccg.

i still think 3 rounds will make fan travel challenging, considering fans will have less than a week to make arrangements, possibly 3 weeks in a row.  that's a lot.

Henry, you're crawling around in my brain.  I agree with all of this.

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2 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

 


Big 12 Top 7 vs. SEC East by Massey Composite:

1. Oklahoma (6) - Georgia (3)
2. West Virginia (19) - Florida (12)
3. Texas (21) - Missouri (15)
4. Iowa State (32) - Kentucky (16)
5. Oklahoma State (48) - South Carolina (31)
6. TCU (54) - Vanderbilt (42)
7. Texas Tech (63) - Tennessee (62)

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

 

Florida, Missouri, and Kentucky in the top 16 is hilarious. I’d take any of the top 4 i the Big 12 over them.

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That bracket in the second post is the way it should be done, first round at higher seed, rest to follow same setup as current 4 team CFP. The selection committee is just to select the at large and set seeding. They do need to flip the 4/5 around. OU sux but they deserve the home game over UGA, just because of one less loss and conf champ. They do not need to get rid of the CCGs, a conf can if they want to do so but it is not necessary. A grand total of two teams are going to play an extra game in this scenario. Total of up to 16 games. 

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As much as I'd like to see an SEC team, or a run & gun offense play a game in December in a northern host teams stadium; I've been to too many shit weather games in my lifetime. So I think that they need to make arrangements to have games played in fair weather cities or in domes.

So northern host teams (like Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio St, etc) would host in Indianapolis, Detroit, St. Louis, Minneapolis or even better in Marquette Michigan.

It would be great to see Alabama travel to the southern shores of Lake Superior in December to play in the Superior dome (so what if seating capacity is under 20,000)

Actually, its pretty cool looking, and the architectural gem of the UP

Image result for superior dome

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2 hours ago, justinjc7 said:

Finally!  I'd still like to eventually see a 16 team playoff but there's no way there shouldn't at least be an 8 team playoff.  Under the current CFP system, they have made the decision that unless you are a P5 school, there is nothing that you can do to make the playoff, nothing.  You can go undefeated for 2 straight years and still don't get a shot at it and I think that's insane.  Expanding it to give more teams the opportunity is definitely the right way to go.  Is UCF better than Alabama?  No, but if they go 2 years without losing a game, shouldn't they at least get the opportunity?  The FCS has something like a 24 team playoff or something like that, there's no reason the FBS can't have at least an 8 team playoff.

This has absolutely nothing to do with UCF. UCF deserves nothing with that putrid schedule. Schedule better OOC opponents and they will be taken seriously.

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9 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Oh, I'm sure the secsecsec will go along when it's guaranteed 5 of the 8 spots.

I am not sure they are not going along with it, they are just not willing to do away with the SECCG to get it. This year and many others, they would have welcomed a 8 team playoff, if it meant a second SEC team got in.

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This is the best line..... so true.

Quote

As one Power 5 athletic director put it, an eight-team Playoff format is not rocket science. It makes sense for many parties. “This sport doesn’t do logical well,” he said.

It's easy.  

1.  Every conference agrees to play the same number of regular season games, with the same number of conference games and mandated number of games vs FBS opponents.  Sorry SEC, we're reducing your ridiculous scheduling advantages.

2.  The conferences don't want to give up the money which comes with CCG.  Fine, every p5 conference play one, it happens already, and the champion is the guaranteed bid

3.  5 Auto bids to P5 conferences, 3 at large with 1 guaranteed to any non-P5 team who meets certain criteria (solves your UCF issue)

4.  More destinations involved with playoff in different regionalities will help give back to the economies of places.  Northern destinations need to be in a dome.

Profit.

 

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2 hours ago, CastHorn said:

That’s alot of games to ask from an amateur student athlete. I guess removing conference championships would help. Bowl games would be even more meaningless, regular season games wouldn’t have the same importance either.

ND St is about to play their 15th game of the season for the FCS title.  Ferris State will play their 16th game on 12/15 in the Div2 title game.  Why has D2 been able to do this for years, but playing 15 games for FBS is too much?

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4 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

This is the best line..... so true.

It's easy.  

1.  Every conference agrees to play the same number of regular season games, with the same number of conference games and mandated number of games vs FBS opponents.  Sorry SEC, we're reducing your ridiculous scheduling advantages.

2.  The conferences don't want to give up the money which comes with CCG.  Fine, every p5 conference play one, it happens already, and the champion is the guaranteed bid

3.  5 Auto bids to P5 conferences, 3 at large with 1 guaranteed to any non-P5 team who meets certain criteria (solves your UCF issue)

4.  More destinations involved with playoff in different regionalities will help give back to the economies of places.  Northern destinations need to be in a dome.

Profit.

 

Exactly. This shit ain't hard, which makes it all the more concerning that so many people running our major universities find it so.

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This is the best line..... so true.
As one Power 5 athletic director put it, an eight-team Playoff format is not rocket science. It makes sense for many parties. “This sport doesn’t do logical well,” he said.
It's easy.  
1.  Every conference agrees to play the same number of regular season games, with the same number of conference games and mandated number of games vs FBS opponents.  Sorry SEC, we're reducing your ridiculous scheduling advantages.
2.  The conferences don't want to give up the money which comes with CCG.  Fine, every p5 conference play one, it happens already, and the champion is the guaranteed bid
3.  5 Auto bids to P5 conferences, 3 at large with 1 guaranteed to any non-P5 team who meets certain criteria (solves your UCF issue)
4.  More destinations involved with playoff in different regionalities will help give back to the economies of places.  Northern destinations need to be in a dome.
Profit.
 


It’s baffling how people refer to SEC scheduling advantages as if the conference/schools are doing something every other conference can’t. It’s not their fault if other conferences/schools shoot themselves in the dick.
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