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When Might the Astros Promote Yordan Alvarez? it's Complicated.

By Jake Kaplan

 

When might the Astros promote Yordan Alvarez? It’s complicated.

USATSI_12246808-1024x732.jpg
By Jake Kaplan 49m agocomment-icon.png 2 save-icon.png

Yordan Alvarez’s absurd numbers in Triple A suggest he’s ready to hit in the majors.

Through Round Rock’s first 17 games, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cuban slugger has mashed 10 home runs, four doubles and walked as many times as he’s struck out. It’s easy to dream on the length and balance he could add to the Astros’ lineup, in which his lefty bat could slot in seventh as the designated hitter.

Yet on this particular 25-man roster, it is not that simple. There are several other considerations at play, the first of which is the lack of an available spot. Alvarez’s call-up is probably only a matter of time. But let’s examine the reasons it hasn’t happened already.

Tony Kemp and Tyler White

As long as Houston maintains a healthy roster, a promotion of Alvarez from Triple A would have to come at the expense of Kemp or White.

Kemp and White have both exhausted their minor league options, meaning neither can be sent back to Triple A without first passing through outright waivers unclaimed by the other 29 teams. There are likely multiple teams that would take a flier on either of them if they were made available.

The Astros don’t want to lose Kemp or White for nothing. Their alternative would be to trade one of them like they did with J.D. Davis to the Mets in January. But April and May aren’t as conducive to consummating trades as in June or July.

Kemp hasn’t gotten much playing time early in the season (37 plate appearances entering Wednesday night’s game) and when in the lineup he hasn’t found many holes. He’s batting only .156/.270/.250 while making four starts as an outfielder (four in center, one in left) and four at DH.

White’s gotten slightly more playing time (46 PAs entering Wednesday) and has managed to get on base at a .435 clip, but has a .351 slugging percentage that’s well below league average for any player (.424) let alone for a DH (.462).

Making a rash decision based on a small sample would be unlike the Astros, who have years of results from these players from which to draw. It’s also not as if the team’s offense has lacked.

Houston’s lineup is its strength

The Astros’ cumulative 125 OPS+ plus entering Wednesday’s slate of games ranked second in the majors behind the Mariners (131). Alex Bregman, José Altuve and George Springer each came into the day with an OPS better than .950. Of their nine players with at least 40 plate appearances through 23 games, only Yuli Gurriel (.739) has an OPS that’s worse than the league average (.746).

The thriving state of the offense affords the Astros the luxury of biding more time before making a decision that depletes their depth, and it wouldn’t be unlike them to wait for an offensive lull before calling up Alvarez. But if they believe Alvarez will make them better, why wait for the inevitable?

From a positional standpoint, a promotion of Alvarez probably bodes worse for Kemp’s chances of sticking with the Astros than White’s. Alvarez and Kemp on the same roster if everyone is healthy would make for six outfielders. Though Alvarez has played first base, his experience at the position is very limited. The team has prioritized his work in left field, where it believes he has a better chance to succeed.

The Astros already have 13 position players and only 12 pitchers on their major league roster, and they will probably try to carry the extra bench bat and only seven relievers for as long as they can. The roster crunch could become only more complicated as the season develops. When sidearmer Joe Smith returns from his Achilles injury in June or July, it will be even more difficult for them to not carry an eight-man bullpen.

GettyImages-1130501763-e1556065042901-10
 
Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alvarez could force the front office’s hand well ahead of then. He’s an advanced hitter for a 21-year-old, both in terms of his strike zone discipline and his ability to use all fields. Though a left-handed hitter, he’s hit a majority of his homers this season left of center field. He’s always hit for average. Now he’s getting the ball off the ground and tapping into his power potential. Triple A using major league balls this season hasn’t hurt his cause.

His value is tied exclusively to his bat, though. A lack of a true position has long been the big knock on Alvarez, which brings us to the next consideration.

Alvarez needs to be playable in left field

Given how A.J. Hinch likes to use the DH position to manage the workloads of Springer and Michael Brantley — Springer has already made five DH starts while Brantley has made three — Alvarez needs to be at least competent in left field.

Alvarez has enough speed to play the position, but his reads off the bat need work.

The Astros haven’t shut the door on first base as an option for Alvarez, but he’s even more so a work in progress at that position. In Triple A, he’s playing first base only about once a week. As a pro, his outfield appearances outnumber his first base appearances 115 to 33. He spent all of his first big league spring training as a left fielder.

Alvarez is still relatively new to minor league baseball, as this is only his third stateside professional season. When the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields at the 2016 trade deadline, Alvarez was in the Dominican Republic and had yet to play in an official pro game. They have moved him through their system aggressively despite his limitations on defense.

But when will be the right time for the Astros to push him to the majors? If their roster stays healthy, much of it could depend on when they’re comfortable making a move with Kemp or White.

(Top photo: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)

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26 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

When Might the Astros Promote Yordan Alvarez? it's Complicated.

By Jake Kaplan

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

When might the Astros promote Yordan Alvarez? It’s complicated.

USATSI_12246808-1024x732.jpg
By Jake Kaplan 49m agocomment-icon.png 2 save-icon.png

Yordan Alvarez’s absurd numbers in Triple A suggest he’s ready to hit in the majors.

Through Round Rock’s first 17 games, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cuban slugger has mashed 10 home runs, four doubles and walked as many times as he’s struck out. It’s easy to dream on the length and balance he could add to the Astros’ lineup, in which his lefty bat could slot in seventh as the designated hitter.

Yet on this particular 25-man roster, it is not that simple. There are several other considerations at play, the first of which is the lack of an available spot. Alvarez’s call-up is probably only a matter of time. But let’s examine the reasons it hasn’t happened already.

Tony Kemp and Tyler White

As long as Houston maintains a healthy roster, a promotion of Alvarez from Triple A would have to come at the expense of Kemp or White.

Kemp and White have both exhausted their minor league options, meaning neither can be sent back to Triple A without first passing through outright waivers unclaimed by the other 29 teams. There are likely multiple teams that would take a flier on either of them if they were made available.

The Astros don’t want to lose Kemp or White for nothing. Their alternative would be to trade one of them like they did with J.D. Davis to the Mets in January. But April and May aren’t as conducive to consummating trades as in June or July.

Kemp hasn’t gotten much playing time early in the season (37 plate appearances entering Wednesday night’s game) and when in the lineup he hasn’t found many holes. He’s batting only .156/.270/.250 while making four starts as an outfielder (four in center, one in left) and four at DH.

White’s gotten slightly more playing time (46 PAs entering Wednesday) and has managed to get on base at a .435 clip, but has a .351 slugging percentage that’s well below league average for any player (.424) let alone for a DH (.462).

Making a rash decision based on a small sample would be unlike the Astros, who have years of results from these players from which to draw. It’s also not as if the team’s offense has lacked.

Houston’s lineup is its strength

The Astros’ cumulative 125 OPS+ plus entering Wednesday’s slate of games ranked second in the majors behind the Mariners (131). Alex Bregman, José Altuve and George Springer each came into the day with an OPS better than .950. Of their nine players with at least 40 plate appearances through 23 games, only Yuli Gurriel (.739) has an OPS that’s worse than the league average (.746).

The thriving state of the offense affords the Astros the luxury of biding more time before making a decision that depletes their depth, and it wouldn’t be unlike them to wait for an offensive lull before calling up Alvarez. But if they believe Alvarez will make them better, why wait for the inevitable?

From a positional standpoint, a promotion of Alvarez probably bodes worse for Kemp’s chances of sticking with the Astros than White’s. Alvarez and Kemp on the same roster if everyone is healthy would make for six outfielders. Though Alvarez has played first base, his experience at the position is very limited. The team has prioritized his work in left field, where it believes he has a better chance to succeed.

The Astros already have 13 position players and only 12 pitchers on their major league roster, and they will probably try to carry the extra bench bat and only seven relievers for as long as they can. The roster crunch could become only more complicated as the season develops. When sidearmer Joe Smith returns from his Achilles injury in June or July, it will be even more difficult for them to not carry an eight-man bullpen.

GettyImages-1130501763-e1556065042901-10
 
Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alvarez could force the front office’s hand well ahead of then. He’s an advanced hitter for a 21-year-old, both in terms of his strike zone discipline and his ability to use all fields. Though a left-handed hitter, he’s hit a majority of his homers this season left of center field. He’s always hit for average. Now he’s getting the ball off the ground and tapping into his power potential. Triple A using major league balls this season hasn’t hurt his cause.

His value is tied exclusively to his bat, though. A lack of a true position has long been the big knock on Alvarez, which brings us to the next consideration.

Alvarez needs to be playable in left field

Given how A.J. Hinch likes to use the DH position to manage the workloads of Springer and Michael Brantley — Springer has already made five DH starts while Brantley has made three — Alvarez needs to be at least competent in left field.

Alvarez has enough speed to play the position, but his reads off the bat need work.

The Astros haven’t shut the door on first base as an option for Alvarez, but he’s even more so a work in progress at that position. In Triple A, he’s playing first base only about once a week. As a pro, his outfield appearances outnumber his first base appearances 115 to 33. He spent all of his first big league spring training as a left fielder.

Alvarez is still relatively new to minor league baseball, as this is only his third stateside professional season. When the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields at the 2016 trade deadline, Alvarez was in the Dominican Republic and had yet to play in an official pro game. They have moved him through their system aggressively despite his limitations on defense.

But when will be the right time for the Astros to push him to the majors? If their roster stays healthy, much of it could depend on when they’re comfortable making a move with Kemp or White.

(Top photo: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Would put Kemp on waivers and call him up right now.  There's little chance that Kemp has a higher ceiling than his decent run as a setup singles hitter in the 9th spot last year.  I am far from a White fan, but he is the exact type of player that the Astros cut or trade who ends up being an all star for another team. 

Astros are going to wait for an injury to call him up though. Which is probably the right thing to do. 

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3 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

When Might the Astros Promote Yordan Alvarez? it's Complicated.

By Jake Kaplan

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

When might the Astros promote Yordan Alvarez? It’s complicated.

USATSI_12246808-1024x732.jpg
By Jake Kaplan 49m agocomment-icon.png 2 save-icon.png

Yordan Alvarez’s absurd numbers in Triple A suggest he’s ready to hit in the majors.

Through Round Rock’s first 17 games, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cuban slugger has mashed 10 home runs, four doubles and walked as many times as he’s struck out. It’s easy to dream on the length and balance he could add to the Astros’ lineup, in which his lefty bat could slot in seventh as the designated hitter.

Yet on this particular 25-man roster, it is not that simple. There are several other considerations at play, the first of which is the lack of an available spot. Alvarez’s call-up is probably only a matter of time. But let’s examine the reasons it hasn’t happened already.

Tony Kemp and Tyler White

As long as Houston maintains a healthy roster, a promotion of Alvarez from Triple A would have to come at the expense of Kemp or White.

Kemp and White have both exhausted their minor league options, meaning neither can be sent back to Triple A without first passing through outright waivers unclaimed by the other 29 teams. There are likely multiple teams that would take a flier on either of them if they were made available.

The Astros don’t want to lose Kemp or White for nothing. Their alternative would be to trade one of them like they did with J.D. Davis to the Mets in January. But April and May aren’t as conducive to consummating trades as in June or July.

Kemp hasn’t gotten much playing time early in the season (37 plate appearances entering Wednesday night’s game) and when in the lineup he hasn’t found many holes. He’s batting only .156/.270/.250 while making four starts as an outfielder (four in center, one in left) and four at DH.

White’s gotten slightly more playing time (46 PAs entering Wednesday) and has managed to get on base at a .435 clip, but has a .351 slugging percentage that’s well below league average for any player (.424) let alone for a DH (.462).

Making a rash decision based on a small sample would be unlike the Astros, who have years of results from these players from which to draw. It’s also not as if the team’s offense has lacked.

Houston’s lineup is its strength

The Astros’ cumulative 125 OPS+ plus entering Wednesday’s slate of games ranked second in the majors behind the Mariners (131). Alex Bregman, José Altuve and George Springer each came into the day with an OPS better than .950. Of their nine players with at least 40 plate appearances through 23 games, only Yuli Gurriel (.739) has an OPS that’s worse than the league average (.746).

The thriving state of the offense affords the Astros the luxury of biding more time before making a decision that depletes their depth, and it wouldn’t be unlike them to wait for an offensive lull before calling up Alvarez. But if they believe Alvarez will make them better, why wait for the inevitable?

From a positional standpoint, a promotion of Alvarez probably bodes worse for Kemp’s chances of sticking with the Astros than White’s. Alvarez and Kemp on the same roster if everyone is healthy would make for six outfielders. Though Alvarez has played first base, his experience at the position is very limited. The team has prioritized his work in left field, where it believes he has a better chance to succeed.

The Astros already have 13 position players and only 12 pitchers on their major league roster, and they will probably try to carry the extra bench bat and only seven relievers for as long as they can. The roster crunch could become only more complicated as the season develops. When sidearmer Joe Smith returns from his Achilles injury in June or July, it will be even more difficult for them to not carry an eight-man bullpen.

GettyImages-1130501763-e1556065042901-10
 
Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alvarez could force the front office’s hand well ahead of then. He’s an advanced hitter for a 21-year-old, both in terms of his strike zone discipline and his ability to use all fields. Though a left-handed hitter, he’s hit a majority of his homers this season left of center field. He’s always hit for average. Now he’s getting the ball off the ground and tapping into his power potential. Triple A using major league balls this season hasn’t hurt his cause.

His value is tied exclusively to his bat, though. A lack of a true position has long been the big knock on Alvarez, which brings us to the next consideration.

Alvarez needs to be playable in left field

Given how A.J. Hinch likes to use the DH position to manage the workloads of Springer and Michael Brantley — Springer has already made five DH starts while Brantley has made three — Alvarez needs to be at least competent in left field.

Alvarez has enough speed to play the position, but his reads off the bat need work.

The Astros haven’t shut the door on first base as an option for Alvarez, but he’s even more so a work in progress at that position. In Triple A, he’s playing first base only about once a week. As a pro, his outfield appearances outnumber his first base appearances 115 to 33. He spent all of his first big league spring training as a left fielder.

Alvarez is still relatively new to minor league baseball, as this is only his third stateside professional season. When the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields at the 2016 trade deadline, Alvarez was in the Dominican Republic and had yet to play in an official pro game. They have moved him through their system aggressively despite his limitations on defense.

But when will be the right time for the Astros to push him to the majors? If their roster stays healthy, much of it could depend on when they’re comfortable making a move with Kemp or White.

(Top photo: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Interesting. Alvarez has mostly been regarded by the prospect writers as possibly a DH-only, thinking that he'd be a liability in LF. The article asserts that he'll play LF when he makes it to Houston. I have no idea how bad his defense is?

Anyway, Kemp seems like the more likely player (than White) to be replaced if/when they summon Alvarez. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll be up at some point, but probably when someone is hurt. No real need to rush this decision right now, I suppose. 

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When he's promoted he'll probably get some time in LF to spell the other corner OF but I'm betting most of his PA will come as a DH.  From the times I've seen him he seems to have decent range but he takes some pretty bad routes on fly balls.

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Kohl Stewart going for the Twins tonight. Y'all might remember him as the 4 star QB from St. Pius who signed with aggy in 2013. Twins drafted him at #4 and aggy couldn't match his $4.5mm signing bonus. He actually started the run of QB defections at collie station

Edited by TonyTexas
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Here's not so fucking pull happy anymore, or worried about his big dick stats. He's hitting like I imagined him when he signed him initially as a number 2 hitter but doing it as a 6, 7 hole hitter which is huge for this lineup

 

 

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