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2019 ALCS: call it

Who takes the pennant?  

88 members have voted

  1. 1. Who takes the pennant?

    • Astros in 7
      32
    • Astros in 6
      34
    • Astros in 5
      9
    • Astros in 4
      2
    • Yankees in 4
      1
    • Yankees in 5
      1
    • Yankees in 6
      6
    • Yankees in 7
      3


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15 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Yankees are 10-1 at home over their last 3 postseasons, including 3-0 against the Astros in 2017. The Twins pitcher that got completely rocked in game 2 of the ALDS whined and complained in an interview about how vile and cruel the Yankees fans were. You’re a fool if you think they have no home field advantage.

astros are 13-4 at home over their last 3 postseasons including 4-0 against the yankees in 2017.  the twins pitcher that got completely rocked in game 2 of the alds was in high a ball when the season started.  you're a fool if you think the twins are anything like the astros.

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lol at the yankees fans in this thread convincing themselves that they're being objective. "oh we just need 5 ip from each starter and it's over." lmao, get the fuck outta here. the Astros are the best team in the league and are the favorites for a reason. if the yankees win this series it's a decided upset. period. 

Edited by Goo Punch

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21 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

astros are 13-4 at home over their last 3 postseasons including 4-0 against the yankees in 2017.  the twins pitcher that got completely rocked in game 2 of the alds was in high a ball when the season started.  you're a fool if you think the twins are anything like the astros.

The one who complained wasn't the Uber driver who started that game. He was too busy getting newlywed sex after the game.

Tyler Duffey was the guy complaining. He was the one whose nerves failed him when Didi hit that granny. 

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Greinke beat NY in NY the day the trade went down. Couldn't have been too anxious.

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27 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I think the Astros not being able to pitch Cole until game 3 will be important

why?  he was only going to pitch twice regardless.  rather have him on the road in pivotal g3. 

we have 1 and 1a.  not a problem. 

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31 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Greinke beat NY in NY the day the trade went down. Couldn't have been too anxious.

the team lost but he pitched well. this season he threw 12.2 and gave up 3, with 14k vs nyy. 

so much hand wringing over our sp3!  it’s like us dissecting the distinguished career of ja happ. 

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No shit.  Someone break down how Tanaka, CC, the vaunted bullpen, etc have done against Houston, especially in the playoffs.

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Hopefully this goes 6 or 7 you never want to sweep the ALCS while the NLCS drags out see 2006 & 2012 Tigers

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Ideally the 4 days off for the MFY hitters leaves them rusty and prone to befuddlement by Greinke then Verlander smokes them in Games 2 & 6 at home and wins the ALCS MVP once again and the rest is history.

Edited by Pimphand

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The Astros have the slightly better lineup and significantly better pitching.  Astros should win.  But it's baseball.

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Still gotta win Verlander, Cole and Greinke started games at least 3 times so good luck with that

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Still gotta win Verlander, Cole and Greinke started games at least 3 times so good luck with that

 

 

Tampa just did it twice, how hard can it be?

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8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Tampa just did it twice, how hard can it be?

You don't get the benefit of seeing Greinke on 11 days rest (rust) that Tampa did. You also don't get the advantage of seeing Verlander on 3 days rest that Tampa did. How did facing Verlander work out for you in the 2017 ALCS?  Come to think about it how did you fare against him in the 2011 ALDS or the 2012 ALCS?  Has your team ever beaten his team in the postseason? 

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2 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

You don't get the benefit of seeing Greinke on 11 days rest (rust) that Tampa did. You also don't get the advantage of seeing Verlander on 3 days rest that Tampa did. How did facing Verlander work out for you in the 2017 ALCS?  Come to think about it how did you fare against him in the 2011 ALDS or the 2012 ALCS?  Has your team ever beaten his team in the postseason? 

We’re due. 

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Tampa just did it twice, how hard can it be?

Verlander won’t be going on short rest. He and Cole will be 4-0...if it lasts that long.

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5 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Hopefully this goes 6 or 7 you never want to sweep the ALCS while the NLCS drags out see 2006 & 2012 Tigers

When the Astros are up 3-0 and leading late in Game 4, maybe Hinch will bring in Devo or Rondon to extend the series at least a game. Don't want the team getting rusty.

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40 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

When the Astros are up 3-0 and leading late in Game 4, maybe Hinch will bring in Devo or Rondon to extend the series at least a game. Don't want the team getting rusty.

it's more about ensuring a game 6 and 7 to increase revenue for crane to make sure we sign cole.

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

it's more about ensuring a game 6 and 7 to increase revenue for crane to make sure we sign cole.

Ah...the really long game. Good move.

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Position by position breakdown, only going with offense since that’s all that matters:

1B - DJL vs Gurriel. Pretty easy advantage to Yanks.

2B - My scouting profile of Altuve being an opposite field slap hitter was slightly off base. Torres is a superstar but Astros have the edge here.

SS - Battle of disappointing seasons, Didi vs Correa. Didi showed signs of coming around in ALDS. If Correa asks his hot GF for his balls back he’d have a clear edge, but it’s close. Yankees small advantage here.

3B - Bregman may be marginally better than Urshela. Astros advantage.

LF -Brantley is better than Stanton, but then again so is whatever left fielder the Astros have in Corpus right now. Stanton is fucking terrible.

CF - Springer has the edge over Gardner. 
 

RF -  Not sure if Astros play Reddick or Marisnik out here, but neither is better than my Judge. ALL RISE. 
 

C - Sanchez gives the Yankees the advantage.  Best hitting catcher alive if he’s even halfway on his game. The problem is when he’s not.

 

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Forgot DH - Alvarez has better talent, Encarnacion has the seasoned veteran approach. I’m gonna give the Yankees a small edge here, even though I shit talk Edwin a lot. He’s not been a disaster like I thought he’d be so far.

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Position by position breakdown, only going with offense since that’s all that matters:

1B - DJL vs Gurriel. Pretty easy advantage to Yanks.

2B - My scouting profile of Altuve being an opposite field slap hitter was slightly off base. Torres is a superstar but Astros have the edge here.

SS - Battle of disappointing seasons, Didi vs Correa. Didi showed signs of coming around in ALDS. If Correa asks his hot GF for his balls back he’d have a clear edge, but it’s close. Yankees small advantage here.

3B - Bregman may be marginally better than Urshela. Astros advantage.

LF -Brantley is better than Stanton, but then again so is whatever left fielder the Astros have in Corpus right now. Stanton is fucking terrible.

CF - Springer has the edge over Gardner. 

 

RF -  Not sure if Astros play Reddick or Marisnik out here, but neither is better than my Judge. ALL RISE. 

 

C - Sanchez gives the Yankees the advantage.  Best hitting catcher alive if he’s even halfway on his game. The problem is when he’s not.

 

I can get behind most of that... But "Bregman may be slightly better than Urshela"? I hope that is sarcasm. Bregman's WAR for 2019 is almost 5 games higher

 

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Position by position breakdown, only going with offense since that’s all that matters:

1B - DJL vs Gurriel. Pretty easy advantage to Yanks.

2B - My scouting profile of Altuve being an opposite field slap hitter was slightly off base. Torres is a superstar but Astros have the edge here.

SS - Battle of disappointing seasons, Didi vs Correa. Didi showed signs of coming around in ALDS. If Correa asks his hot GF for his balls back he’d have a clear edge, but it’s close. Yankees small advantage here.

3B - Bregman may be marginally better than Urshela. Astros advantage.

LF -Brantley is better than Stanton, but then again so is whatever left fielder the Astros have in Corpus right now. Stanton is fucking terrible.

CF - Springer has the edge over Gardner. 

RF -  Not sure if Astros play Reddick or Marisnik out here, but neither is better than my Judge. ALL RISE. 

C - Sanchez gives the Yankees the advantage.  Best hitting catcher alive if he’s even halfway on his game. The problem is when he’s not.

you can also do dh if you want.  that will come down to how annoying boone gets with having a lefty come in to face yordan, and if he's able to abuse the short porch.  tampa did it with great effectiveness to keep his power in check, but he hit .316 in the series, and has been fine off lefties this season.

on the surface, most of your comps are fine.  at ss, correa was injured off and on, which was disappointing, but when he was healthy, he was beastly.  21 homers and 59 rbi in 75 games (half a season, so you do the math) and he's our 7 hole hitter.  he's also been stellar in the field.  i know didi missed the front half of the season, so i guess the situations are somewhat comparable.

marisnick doesn't play rf.  he's a late inning defensive replacement in cf.  there's a chance he could start a game against a lefty (paxton, happ?) but only because reddick and tucker have been scuffling (though tucker in very limited action).  at this point, most astros fans are fine if reddick isn't given meaningful at bats.  marisnick is a ridiculous fielder, so starting him would be a defensive play and one i probably wouldn't argue with (since he'd hit 9th anyway).

i know you have a "pretty easy advantage" for djl, and he's had a great year.  but don't sleep on yuli.

player a - .327, 26hr, 102rbi

player b - .298, 31hr, 104rbi

yuli with a higher slg, dj with a higher obp, with similar ops.

another thing to remember - the yankees strike out a shit ton more than the astros.  the astros walk a shit ton more than the yankees.  the yankees also had some pretty good "luck" stats in 2019.  they were near the top of the league in fewest runners left on base, while the astros were near the bottom (maybe worst).  astros also ground into a ton of double plays.  i call those stats luck because people believe "clutch" is not a real stat, at least not a measurable one.

the yankees feast on mediocre pitching.  the more innings we get out of the big 3 and being able to only turn to 2-3 reliable bullpen arms, the more the series swings the astros way.  and obviously the yankees will rely on their big 4 relievers - who have thrown a ton of innings.  if one or more falters, we'll take advantage, especially later in the season.

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29 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Position by position breakdown, only going with offense since that’s all that matters:

1B - DJL vs Gurriel. Pretty easy advantage to Yanks.

2B - My scouting profile of Altuve being an opposite field slap hitter was slightly off base. Torres is a superstar but Astros have the edge here.

SS - Battle of disappointing seasons, Didi vs Correa. Didi showed signs of coming around in ALDS. If Correa asks his hot GF for his balls back he’d have a clear edge, but it’s close. Yankees small advantage here.

3B - Bregman may be marginally better than Urshela. Astros advantage.

LF -Brantley is better than Stanton, but then again so is whatever left fielder the Astros have in Corpus right now. Stanton is fucking terrible.

CF - Springer has the edge over Gardner. 
 

RF -  Not sure if Astros play Reddick or Marisnik out here, but neither is better than my Judge. ALL RISE. 
 

C - Sanchez gives the Yankees the advantage.  Best hitting catcher alive if he’s even halfway on his game. The problem is when he’s not.

 

Your 1B take is amusing-LeMahieu put .327/.375/.518 for a 136 wRC+. Gurriel put up .298/.343/.541 for a 132 wRC +. Hardly an “easy advantage.”

SS is even funnier. Both have had disappointing, injury plagued seasons. The difference is Correa hasn’t sucked out loud when healthy. He has over 3 times as much WAR in fewer games played.

3b is an obvious troll.

And it’s pretty convenient for you that offense is all that matters, when one team is elite defensively and the other is garbage.

Edited by formermav43

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Lefty knuckleballer

Astros: None

Yankees: None

Advantage: Yankees

 

Also, it's a good thing Sanchez is the best hitting catcher because he's also the worst at catching.

Edited by kevwun

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4 minutes ago, UTHornFan014 said:

I can get behind most of that... But "Bregman may be slightly better than Urshela"? I hope that is sarcasm. Bregman's WAR for 2019 is almost 5 games higher

 

Image result for green shirt guy gif

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Just now, henrygandorf said:

i gave helo credit that the 3b was a joke.  maybe i shouldn't have?

It was a joke. Urshela has a better story though, that has to count for something.

I didn’t include defense because I haven’t watched the Astros enough to know, and defensive sabermetrics are pretty untrustworthy. If it was just a defensive contest of some sort, Didi would have an easy edge on Correa, and I’d take my money on Gleyber over Altuve. Don’t know much about Bregman’s defense but I know he’s a converted shortstop, I think Urshela could be a better defender than him. Point is it’s much easier to compare offense.

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6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Didi would have an easy edge on Correa, and I’d take my money on Gleyber over Altuve. Don’t know much about Bregman’s defense but I know he’s a converted shortstop, I think Urshela could be a better defender than him. 

um...

6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Point is it’s much easier to compare offense.

yeah, it shows.

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7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It was a joke. Urshela has a better story though, that has to count for something.

I didn’t include defense because I haven’t watched the Astros enough to know, and defensive sabermetrics are pretty untrustworthy. If it was just a defensive contest of some sort, Didi would have an easy edge on Correa, and I’d take my money on Gleyber over Altuve. Don’t know much about Bregman’s defense but I know he’s a converted shortstop, I think Urshela could be a better defender than him. Point is it’s much easier to compare offense.

Um, shortstop is a much tougher position than third.  If you can play short, you can play the easier position third.  

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14 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Um, shortstop is a much tougher position than third.  If you can play short, you can play the easier position third.  

Ha. I played shortstop/third/pitcher through high school (can still throw a strike over them mountains). Shortstop is toughest from a responsibility standpoint, but third is toughest physically. You have to have a cannon for an arm and lightning reflexes. Not all good shortstops can be good third basemen and vice versa. 

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Hey...if we're just throwing random sports stuff out there with no basis in truth, let me posit that Chase Daniel at age 80 will be a far better QB than Tom Brady ever was. 

I'm no big fan of Correa, because he can't stay healthy. But when not in ICU, the guy can pick it and has a cannon. The fact Didi is decent is no basis for saying Correa isn't a stud. 

Altuve isn't a stellar 2B by any means. He makes basic plays but is out there for his bat, not his glove or arm. I'll give the defensive edge to Torres without digging into his stats. 

As for Bregman, I must ask if anyone doubting anything about his game has ever really watched Houston play.

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Astros in 7. Yankees win game 1 against Grienke, Astros win game 3 on the road with Cole on the mound, and the home team holds down the fort for the rest of the series. I do think the Astros are a lot better and it wouldn’t shock me at all if we got a gentleman’s sweep for this series, but I just have a feeling this one is going 7.

Edited by youdunnf'dup

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I think the Astros are marginally better, but that doesn't necessarily matter in a short series. 

It's baseball - everyone will over-analyze each team's strengths and weaknesses, and the series will end up being decided by plays made by guys who were never mentioned in the pre-series analysis (Mickey Hatcher, Ray Knight, Pat Borders, Scott Brosius, Mike Lowell, etc.).

(Hopefully that guy is Jake Marisnick or Martin Maldonado or Jose Urquidy this year.)

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Everytime the Giants won the World Series recently it’s because some career scrub backup caught fire in October. Travis Ishikawa, seriously?

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Ha. I played shortstop/third/pitcher through high school (can still throw a strike over them mountains). Shortstop is toughest from a responsibility standpoint, but third is toughest physically. You have to have a cannon for an arm and lightning reflexes. Not all good shortstops can be good third basemen and vice versa. 

The throw from the deep hole is why a SS needs a cannon.  A tougher throw than any third basemen will ever have.  Any good SS can easily play third.  The SS is almost always the best athlete in the infield.  Requires an arm, reflexes, coordination and range. 

Edited by Johnny Sack

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I think the Astros are marginally better, but that doesn't necessarily matter in a short series. 

It's baseball - everyone will over-analyze each team's strengths and weaknesses, and the series will end up being decided by plays made by guys who were never mentioned in the pre-series analysis (Mickey Hatcher, Ray Knight, Pat Borders, Scott Brosius, Mike Lowell, etc.).

(Hopefully that guy is Jake Marisnick or Martin Maldonado or Jose Urquidy this year.)

you mean like perennial all-stars and future hall-of-famers steve pearce, jackie bradley, jr, and nathan eovaldi?

fuck that 2018 run.  btw, remove that garbage series and the astros are 13-1 in the last 3 postseasons at home. 

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6 hours ago, Pimphand said:

You don't get the benefit of seeing Greinke on 11 days rest (rust) that Tampa did. You also don't get the advantage of seeing Verlander on 3 days rest that Tampa did. How did facing Verlander work out for you in the 2017 ALCS?  Come to think about it how did you fare against him in the 2011 ALDS or the 2012 ALCS?  Has your team ever beaten his team in the postseason? 

username checks out.

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Everytime the Giants won the World Series recently it’s because some career scrub backup caught fire in October. Travis Ishikawa, seriously?

Exactly.

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18 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

It’s like us dissecting the distinguished career of ja happ. 

I have no idea how Happ has a job pitching in the majors. Nice guy, but the worst possible pitcher for this park. He's been Sonny Gray part 2. 

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4 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I think the Astros are marginally better, but that doesn't necessarily matter in a short series. 

It's baseball - everyone will over-analyze each team's strengths and weaknesses, and the series will end up being decided by plays made by guys who were never mentioned in the pre-series analysis (Mickey Hatcher, Ray Knight, Pat Borders, Scott Brosius, Mike Lowell, etc.).

(Hopefully that guy is Jake Marisnick or Martin Maldonado or Jose Urquidy this year.)

Position fWar: Astros 40.8; Yankees 34.8.

Pitching fWar: Astros 23.7; Yankees 18.1.

The Astros are markedly better than the Yankees, but it’s still just a seven game series. 

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