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Astros 2020-21 offseason- can't be any worse than last year, right? RIGHT?


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Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and his wife, Reagan, are spearheading two days of water distribution this week in Houston while recovery continues from the winter storm.

On Saturday, the Bregmans are partnering with the Astros Foundation and Brothers Produce to distribute 18,000 cases of water at the Astros Youth Academy. The event will be a drive-through and a limit of two cases of water per car is in place. Distribution will begin at 9 a.m. and last until cases run out.

The Astros Youth Academy is located at 2801 S. Victory Dr.

On Sunday, there will be a distribution beginning at 2 p.m. at Butler Stadium at 13755 S. Main Street. Bregman partnered with   teammates Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith and Michael Brantley — along with their families —  to coordinate Sunday’s drive. Each car that arrives will receive five gallons of water.

 

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I don't have a subscription to the Athletic (screw Oakland), but MLB radio talked about the article.  Basically Rosenthal says the Astros aren't signing Jackie Bradley Jr because of draft pick issues if they go over the luxury tax, not so much about money, but then speculated that next year's contracts could be an issue (wanting to keep Correa.)

Edited by clapclapclap
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22 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

 

 

I don't have a subscription to the Athletic (screw Oakland), but MLB radio talked about the article.  Basically Rosenthal says the Astros aren't signing Jackie Bradley Jr because of draft pick issues if they go over the luxury tax, not so much about money, but then speculated that next year's contracts could be an issue (wanting to keep Correa.)

Well it's not like Bradley is getting a shit ton of offers. Maybe his salary demands are out of tune with the market for an inconsistent offensive but + defensive CF.

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Here's the Astros/JBJ part of the article

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Why the Astros won’t sign Bradley Jr.

The financial penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold is not what is deterring the Astros from signing free-agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. The team is more concerned with the diminished draft-pick compensation it would receive if it went past $210 million and then made qualifying offers to Correa and possibly right-handers Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke at the end of the season.

The Astros’ current luxury-tax payroll, according to Fangraphs, is $201.3 million, leaving them room for potential additions at the deadline. Bradley is unlikely to accept a salary that would keep them under the threshold. And if they go over, any compensation pick would fall from after the second round to after the fourth round. In 2019, the dropoff would have been from No. 78 to No. 138.

Going over also would cost the Astros young talent if they signed a free agent with a qualifying offer – say, Corey Seager to replace Correa. The penalty then would be their second- and fifth-highest picks and a $1 million reduction in their international bonus pool, as opposed to only a second-rounder and $500,000 reduction if they stayed under. And remember, every pick is critical for a team that lost its first- and second-round selections in 2020 and ’21 as part of its penalty for the sign-stealing scandal.

Correa seems certain to merit the one-year qualifying offer, which likely will be in the $18 million to $19 million range. Verlander, who is expected to miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, would be an interesting call entering his age 39 season, as would Greinke entering his age 38. Righty Lance McCullers, 27, would be unlikely to receive a QO unless he has a big season.

He also offered up Correa as an example of why Tatis took the deal he did...he implies that Correa may have gotten more in a long term extensions after his first two years than what he will end up getting after hitting free agency, due to the injury concerns.  I'm not sure I agree but it's an interesting what if.

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Still, think back to early in Carlos Correa’s career. He was the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year in his age 20 season and almost as impressive the following year. If he wasn’t quite Tatis, he was a reasonable facsimile. But back trouble and other injuries limited Correa to average just 98 games from 2017 to ’19. He then produced a career-low .709 OPS in the 60-game 2020 season, and his free agency after ’21 does not appear as promising as it once did.

 

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I hadn’t thought about JV and Greinke getting a Q.O. Assuming $19mm is the number, I’d give it definitely to Verlander and probably to Zack if he’s serviceable this year. 

I'd be ecstatic getting both for those prices

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8 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I'd be ecstatic getting both for those prices

Yeah but I don’t think we’d get them for that. I was thinking more about the draft picks. Our farm system needs a serious talent injection. 

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16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Have there been any new developments regarding ability to watch Stros games without having ATT/DirecTV? We decided to cut the cord when we moved into our new house back in November. Just have Hulu Live.

Buy the MLB single team stream, and get a VPN to hide your location if you're in their designated viewer area. I've had no issues doing this from San Antonio for the last 3 seasons. Although the single team season stream went from $94 to $110 this year.

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I would wrap Correa up this month.   Can probably get him a little cheaper than if he goes out and has a career year.  Still gonna cost, but he wants it so fucking get it done.  

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/carlos-correa-astros-contract-extension

Astros shortstop Carlos Correa expressed his desire to remain in Houston for the remainder of his career, but he emphasized following the team’s first full workout of Spring Training on Monday in West Palm Beach, Fla., that he wants an extension to get done before the start of the regular season.

Correa, a free agent at the end of the season, said he doesn’t want contract negotiations to spill into the regular season and serve as a distraction. The Astros avoided arbitration with Correa on Feb. 6 by signing him to an $11.7 million deal for 2021, and Correa said Monday neither he nor his agent had heard from the Astros since in terms of a possible contract extension.

“If the Astros want to extend me, I would like to get it done before the season starts,” he said. “I feel good, my body feels great and I feel I’m going to have such a great season. Once the season starts, I don’t want to be involved and distracted with those conversations.”

Last month, Astros general manager James Click said the club was “very open” to an extension for Correa. If Correa does reach free agency, he would be 27 years old and the youngest from among a talented group of potential free-agent shortstops next winter: Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Corey Seager.

“I’ll be really young,” he said. “I’ll be one of the youngest players going to free agency next year. I feel like it would take the right deal to stay here. I’m not going to sell myself short, but at the same time, I know what I’m worth. If the season happens, I’m expecting to have a great, healthy season, which will help my case for free agency being the youngest shortstop out there. We’ll see how it goes.”

When it was reported last week that 22-year-old Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. had agreed to a 14-year, $340 million contract extension, Correa tweeted: “Love to see it. Congrats Fernando.”

The Astros signed second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $151 million extension prior to the 2018 season and third baseman Alex Bregman to a six-year, $100 million extension prior to '19 under former general manager Jeff Luhnow. Altuve's contract remains the biggest in club history.

Houston was unable to keep outfielder George Springer, who signed with the Blue Jays this winter. Altuve, Correa, Bregman and Springer made up the Astros’ homegrown position-player core that led the team to the 2017 World Series.

“I’m not scared of free agency,” Correa said. “I feel like this is a team I grew up in. I feel like this is my team, and I feel like I belong here. They have to feel the same way. If they feel the same way, we can get something done. It would be great. If they don’t, I understand that’s how the business works, and we’ll have to move on. At the end of the day, it will be a business. At the same time, I feel this is my town and my team, and I want to represent this organization for a long time.”

Correa hit .264/.326/.383 with five homers and 25 RBIs in 58 games in the regular season last year before batting .362/.455/.766 with six homers and 17 RBIs in 13 games in an electric postseason. Correa said he figured out something with his swing in the postseason and is excited about the thoughts of carrying those changes into the 2021 regular season.

“My swing feels great,” he said. “I figured out something last year that helped me in the playoffs, and it’s going to translate this year. I’m super confident going into the season with what we have. I feel really good.”

Last year, Correa also emerged as the leader of the Astros on the field and off. He vehemently defended the ability of his teammates last spring in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. Plus, Correa was an American League Gold Glove Award finalist after making just tone error in 212 chances in the regular season and leading the AL in defensive runs saved.

Correa didn’t rule out the possibility of moving to third base later in his career. Bregman is under contract through 2024, but he played shortstop at LSU and made 65 appearances at short in '19 when Correa was out with an injury.

“I would love to stay here and play third base if that’s the case,” Correa said. “It’s just a position I also enjoy, but I’m the one [from among the potential 2021 free-agent shortstop class] who has the option to play shortstop, third base and play defense at a high level and produce power at the plate and can hit.”

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 MLB Draft out of Puerto Rico, Correa made his Major League debut on June 8, 2015, at 20 years old and won the '15 AL Rookie of the Year Award. Over the next six years, he hit .276 with 107 homers and 397 RBIs and an .833 OPS in 604 games, and was the starting shortstop for the AL in the '17 MLB All-Star Game.

Correa has battled injuries in his career and played in just 75 games in 2019 after sustaining a rib fracture and the reoccurrence of a back injury. He stayed healthy during last year’s pandemic-shortened season and played in 58 of a possible 60 regular-season games.

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I’m somewhat torn between signing CC now or rolling the dice to see what happens with the ridiculous SS free agent class next year. Lindor, Seager, Story, Baez and Correa will all be FAs. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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2 hours ago, IDIOTsavant said:

Buy the MLB single team stream, and get a VPN to hide your location if you're in their designated viewer area. I've had no issues doing this from San Antonio for the last 3 seasons. Although the single team season stream went from $94 to $110 this year.

That used to work for me, but the VPN somehow got sniffed out about a third of the way into last season.  No idea how they figured it out, I was diligent with clearing cache and cookies before ever connecting to MLB's site.

Luckily Reddit streams came through every time I wanted to watch a game.

Edited by clapclapclap
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1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

That used to work for me, but the VPN somehow got sniffed out about a third of the way into last season.  No idea how they figured it out, I was diligent with clearing cache and cookies before ever connecting to MLB's site.

Luckily Reddit streams came through every time I wanted to watch a game.

The much more likely scenario is your VPN assigned to you an IP in the Astros viewing territory. This happened to me several times last year with Nord VPN and I would just renew it until it would work.

Edited by HtownHorn
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4 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

That used to work for me, but the VPN somehow got sniffed out about a third of the way into last season.  No idea how they figured it out, I was diligent with clearing cache and cookies before ever connecting to MLB's site.

Luckily Reddit streams came through every time I wanted to watch a game.

Yeah, I gave up trying to get it to all work last year.  They've gotten better at blocking the vpn end around.  I'm not sure it's possible anymore without causing problems with other streaming services like Netflix and Amazon.

Edited by kevwun
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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

The much more likely scenario is your VPN assigned to you an IP in the Astros viewing territory. This happened to me several times last year with Nord VPN and I would just renew it until it would work.

Probably not, since I would choose the Miami location on my VPN every single time.

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Although I agree completely with the last 3 posts- crane should be in charge of these negotiations. It’s a big decision and a big number and that responsibility should be his when you are going to spend 250 or 300 million. 

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13 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

He should be fired if the Astros leave ST without a long term deal completed.

Yep.  Didn't they get JV's deal done and signed by the time ST was over? 

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Thinking back to that Richard Justice article about how the Astros are losing the heart and soul of the club after Springer left. In light of last year's performance and Carlos willingness to take on the media and opposing team/fans to stand up for the team, seems like it's even more important than ever to lock him up long-term. His (to date) injury prone nature I guess is just the risk the Stros will have to take. 

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On 2/22/2021 at 5:38 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I’d do 10/250. He can be an Astro for life. He’s set up for generations. Be interesting to see what he wants though. 

what more could he want - he's got a WS ring AND he gets to plow Daniella every night....maybe two Daniellas? 

ok, just give him more money, he's back in my good graces after embracing his leadership last year. anytime you can tell cody bellinger to shut the fuck up on the record, you are good in my book.

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4 hours ago, YChang said:

Thinking back to that Richard Justice article about how the Astros are losing the heart and soul of the club after Springer left. In light of last year's performance and Carlos willingness to take on the media and opposing team/fans to stand up for the team, seems like it's even more important than ever to lock him up long-term. His (to date) injury prone nature I guess is just the risk the Stros will have to take. 

If they extend Correa and he keeps getting hurt, I wouldn't fault the Astros.. Kind of like the Texans taking Bosselli in the expansion draft.. Its the right move, but sometimes shit happens. 

 

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1 hour ago, texashorne said:

If they extend Correa and he keeps getting hurt, I wouldn't fault the Astros.. Kind of like the Texans taking Bosselli in the expansion draft.. Its the right move, but sometimes shit happens. 

 

I guess there are a couple of ways to look at it...from 2016-2019 - the seasons in which he could have played up to 162 games - he averaged 112 games per year, or 69% of all regular season games. If we add in last year, in which he played in 58 of 60 games, that pushes it to 71%. Injuries are difficult to predict, but it seems reasonable to assume that he'll basically average something like a 70-80% participation rate over the life of his next contract. 

Another way to look at it is simply by value. From 2016-2019, he averaged 5 bWAR per season, despite only playing in 69% of the games. That's pretty damn impressive. If we are talking about a guy who averages, let's say, 6.5-7 WAR per 162 games played...well that's an MVP-level player still in his mid-20s. 

I am a regression guy, so I guess I'd expect CC to average around 5-6 WAR annually over the next 5 years (and that assumes he continues to miss 30% of the season), and maybe 3 WAR annually over the next 3-5 years...factoring in whatever level of fragility he may have. So I guess I'd make him an offer commensurate with that expectation.  

Let's call it 40-50 WAR over the next 10 years. Tatis just got $24mm annually but SD had some leverage with all his remaining years of team control that they bought out. Machado got $30mm annually as a FA.

Let's split the difference and say 10 years/$275mm for Correa. If he really produces 40-50 WAR over the life of that contract, it would be a great deal for the club (and he's probably a HOFer as a career Astro, a la Bagwell and Biggio). Not sure if he'd sign that, but given that teams will have SS options next season with Lindor, Seager, Story, Baez all hitting the market (for now, anyway), he may. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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24 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I guess there are a couple of ways to look at it...from 2016-2019 - the seasons in which he could have played up to 162 games - he averaged 112 games per year, or 69% of all regular season games. If we add in last year, in which he played in 58 of 60 games, that pushes it to 71%. Injuries are difficult to predict, but it seems reasonable to assume that he'll basically average something like a 70-80% participation rate over the life of his next contract. 

 

More importantly, he has also played in 100% of playoff games.

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8 minutes ago, Scraps said:

More importantly, he has also played in 100% of playoff games.

Yeah. The object is to get him to the playoffs healthy. So if he sits 20 games in June, so be it. Same with Altuve and Bregman. Ideally you want those 3 playing 150+, but as long as those 3 are healthy going into the playoffs, I like our chances of going deep, even more than an average surly post with South Austin's mom.

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58 minutes ago, Scraps said:

More importantly, he has also played in 100% of playoff games.

Yeah, and in '17-'19 the club had the ability to be pretty confident of making the playoffs, so they were probably really conservative with getting Correa back on the field during the regular season and he maybe could have played more if it was crucial to the team's postseason prospects. 

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