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Realignment talk not going away

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20 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

as we shift towards the inevitable 64/68/70ish "P5 only" super-league, this becomes ever more true

right now, the Big Ten subsidizes what would otherwise be completely non-competitive programs-- Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, etc. when the P5 breaks away from G5, I think the P5 will be a lot more likely to ask "why are we paying Indiana to play football?" than it is today.

or to say it another way, the answer of "they're a traditional member of our 120-yr old conference" will stop being a good reason to subsidize their football program

I definitely agree with this.

Half of the ACC is in this boat.  Why in the hell is Wake Forest playing football against Clemson?  Their stadium holds literally half of what ours does, and lord knows we ain't a blue blood either.  Boston College - same thing.  They were good in the 80's, but no one gives a fuck now.  Duke basketball is a bona fide blue blood, but no one gives a shit about their football program (even if they've been solidish under Cutcliffe), and so on.

It blew me away during the 2010 realignment when programs like Wake, Duke, BC, Washington State, Northwestern, etc that had no fans but are in stable conferences were considered locks to stay in the P5 while everyone had KSU and us, a couple of extremely well supported programs, were assumed to be headed to the Missouri Valley.

Give A Shit is a major currency these days.  Going forward, programs with legitimate Give A Shit are going to be who comprises the P5 super league.

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Imagining a world where college football has relegation and promotion

Quote

Perhaps Sewanee's move was inevitable. The Tigers were bad, and football was hardly a cash cow in those days. But what if, instead, Sewanee had kept plugging along, happy just to be a part of the SEC party? Might it now be collecting $50 million a year from the league and still finishing 0-8 in conference play, its fans cheering along -- "S-E-C! S-E-C!" -- as the Crimson Tide roll toward another playoff berth?

Quote

From 2015 through 2019, Kansas (3-42 in conference play), Rutgers (4-40), Oregon State (8-37) and Arkansas (9-31) have the worst records in their respective leagues, and the ACC would enjoy the drama of a three-way tie between Boston College, Syracuse and Duke (all 14-26). The Orange would be our relegation loser based on the largest average margin of defeat.

On the flip side, App State (35-5), Boise State (33-7), Temple (30-10), Western Michigan (28-12) and Western Kentucky (27-13) would represent each Group of 5 league, and Arkansas State (31-9), San Diego State (29-11), Memphis (29-11), Navy (27-13) and Toledo (27-13) would round out a 10-team bowl battle for a shot at promotion. (Note: In this case, we'll use records vs. Power 5 as the tiebreaker for inclusion.)

The upside to this plan is promoted teams would get four years to build before the next round of relegation, and one bad season wouldn't doom a team to an epic demise. Still, we run into issues. The bowl-battle model for the Group of 5 would heavily reward teams with the best personnel that year rather than throughout the four-year window. And where is the immediacy and drama? Without that, there's no hefty TV payday, and without that, there's far less incentive to make the plan work.

 

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On 7/23/2020 at 7:51 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

I definitely agree with this.

Half of the ACC is in this boat.  Why in the hell is Wake Forest playing football against Clemson?  Their stadium holds literally half of what ours does, and lord knows we ain't a blue blood either.  Boston College - same thing.  They were good in the 80's, but no one gives a fuck now.  Duke basketball is a bona fide blue blood, but no one gives a shit about their football program (even if they've been solidish under Cutcliffe), and so on.

It blew me away during the 2010 realignment when programs like Wake, Duke, BC, Washington State, Northwestern, etc that had no fans but are in stable conferences were considered locks to stay in the P5 while everyone had KSU and us, a couple of extremely well supported programs, were assumed to be headed to the Missouri Valley.

Give A Shit is a major currency these days.  Going forward, programs with legitimate Give A Shit are going to be who comprises the P5 super league.

No doubt, good points, Iowa State deserves a slot in any power conference configuration/ loyal fans/ great academics & good rival (-1991 & 2017)...

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Posted (edited)

I've been saying for years that the next round of realignment won't be one or two teams switching conferences, but rather a radical restructuring along economic commonalities.

What if there was no SEC, Big12 or ACC for football moving forward, and what if a school's basketball and baseball teams were in different conferences for different sports?

The virus is just accelerating what was inevitable - an economic restructuring of college sports.

https://view.email.sportico.com/?qs=26e6573624343581390aae3bf7e53c52261e4c7e579335051580c654003c71dea472b11f95558923093b078253151af9abfad7af29352f12683d6033492bea70dbf859229654d088

Quote

Could COVID-19 Be The Catalyst To Winnow 'Power-Five' (65 schools) Down To Elite 40?

On Saturday (7/25), Rutgers Sports Insider reported the RU football program halted all in-person team activities—and that the entire roster had entered quarantine—after six players tested positive for the coronavirus during the “latest weekly testing cycle.” Just a day earlier, Michigan State announced its football program would be entering a 14-day isolation period after a pair of coaches and a player tested positive for the virus. The two team-wide lockdowns have only increased speculation that the 2020 college football season will eventually be canceled. The athletic director at one Power Five school (AD1) told JohnWallStreet by Sportico that a lost season would be a fiscal catastrophe—one that would force a new round of conference realignment (in essence the last wave, at the start of the decade, essentially created the ‘Power Five’ as an entity, killed the Big East, and dramatically altered the economic future for the ones lucky to ride the wave – Rutgers – and the ones who missed the boat – Boise State, UConn). “If we don’t have football, or if [the season begins] and we have a major disruption that continues through basketball (meaning the football season could not be completed and schools were to incur further losses in hoops), it would be Armageddon,” he said. “There would have to be dramatic changes [to the current conference structure] because revenues would erode to a level that I’m not sure [some schools] could recover from.”

Our Take: While long-discussed (think: +/- 35 years), AD1 said cancellation of the 2020 football season would be the crisis that “ultimately drives the 40 or 45 schools who think they’re responsible for generating most of the revenue [in college sports], to rise to the top [and break away from the rest of the Power Five].” He believes the losses incurred—collectively estimated to be north of $1 billion—would leave the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big-12 and ACC no choice but to “reformat how [they] do business.” That change would include FBS conference realignment for the biggest/wealthiest programs and a chance for the less fortunate to make a move to “a world they can afford” (perhaps to a Group of Five conference or to the Championship subdivision).

Major conference realignment would allow college football’s power brokers (think: Michigan, Notre Dame, USC) to hit the reset button—at least on the revenue front. The 40 or 45 schools that want to continue playing at the highest level would be able to repackage their media rights and drive those dollars to an even higher level. Of course, they would also be able to retain a greater percentage of that revenue since they would be sharing it with fewer schools.

To be clear, AD1 is not suggesting those less fortunate school would be dropping football entirely. In fact, “part of this [restructuring] would be about finding the [other 20-25] programs a place to land.” In theory, the idea of making a move to a less capital intensive Group of Five or FCS conference would make sense for many of those schools—particularly if they see collegiate athletics as a form of enrollment management (see: non-scholarship programs). But while it may be the fiscally responsible decision, a second P5 athletic director (AD2) says that there are other factors likely to prevent major realignment. “ Membership [within the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC or Pac-12] is such a big part of the institutional identity for prominent alums and contributors. It’s a hard asset. No President or Board Chair is going to willingly surrender it—unless the conference dissolves like the SWC in the 1990s—because it would be [career] suicide.”

AD2 said that even if the 2020 season were lost, there’s no reason a P5 President should have to make that decision, as every school “absolutely” has the ability to weather the storm. For perspective, a lost college football season would cost his program $30 million. While certainly a significant amount of money, he said it’s not nearly enough for the school to consider forgoing its place within the sport’s hierarchy. “You borrow money [to cover the shortfall], credit against [the school’s endowment] or take a loss and cut people,” he said. “But you’re going to come back next year.”

AD2 may not foresee 40 or 45 teams pulling away from the rest of the P5, but he does believe the financial repercussions of a lost college football season are serious and could cause a “major disruption in [collegiate athletic] model; including serious pressure [from the schools] to reduce the minimum number of sports.” As it stands, there is a mandate to have 16 sports to compete at the FBS level.

Market Snapshot:

JohnWallStreet Index: 3,327.62 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 10,536.27 (+1.67%)
S&P: 3,239.41 (+0.74%)
DJI: 26,584.77 (+0.43%)

 

 

Edited by Randolph Duke

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Relegation and promotion would be great for any sport, but it won't ever work in the US. I hadn't realized how bad Arkansas has been for so long. There should however be a massive reshuffling along geographic lines, but again, it's a stupid sport that will always have stupid alignments.

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17 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Relegation and promotion would be great for any sport, but it won't ever work in the US. I hadn't realized how bad Arkansas has been for so long. There should however be a massive reshuffling along geographic lines, but again, it's a stupid sport that will always have stupid alignments.

you are conflating two things

one, the sport should absolutely be aligned along coherent and traditional geographic boundaries. Illinois might not be much, but it has a trophy game with Ohio State, along with a hundred years of history. That counts for something when they play and Ohio State wins by 50. Ohio State and Rutgers don't have shit. Oklahoma State is a boring opponent for me personally but at least they make sense in that we're both large state schools in the Southwestern(ish) part of the country. 

two, relegation itself is a stupid idea for college football. Arkansas has been bad for "so long"....? Guess what, more people would still prefer to watch them than watch Arkansas State or Houston. That's why the SEC wants Arkansas. The broadcast entities (whether current network and cable TV or future web based providers) can get more eyeballs with Arkansas than Arkansas State or Houston (or Purdue than Ball State, or any other number of relegation-related comparisons we want to make-- I picked Arkansas State and Houston out of geographic convenience to make the point). There's no logical mechanism to force the Big Ten to drop Illinois and add Northern Illinois, even if we're strictly talking about their football programs and not membership in other sports or the (former) CIC. 

There also isn't enough volume in G5 to support relegation. For every Boise State, there are two or even three dozen G5 programs that no one wants to watch regularly. You'd basically be creating a relegation system that never needs to be used, or one used to promote too many unattractive programs too frequently. 

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On 7/24/2020 at 12:58 PM, MillerEP said:

I made a post pitching this idea early on in the offseason

Why not apply it to the academics too?  A Professor who goes 5 years without a discovery or authoring a boring book could receive a warning that he'll  be transferred to the nearest city college.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Randolph Duke said:

I've been saying for years that the next round of realignment won't be one or two teams switching conferences, but rather a radical restructuring along economic commonalities.

What if there was no SEC, Big12 or ACC for football moving forward, and what if a school's basketball and baseball teams were in different conferences for different sports?

The virus is just accelerating what was inevitable - an economic restructuring of college sports.

https://view.email.sportico.com/?qs=26e6573624343581390aae3bf7e53c52261e4c7e579335051580c654003c71dea472b11f95558923093b078253151af9abfad7af29352f12683d6033492bea70dbf859229654d088

 

 

An interesting concept I'll go 1 better can OU/ UT keep rivals..?

What if Notre Dame "likes" an idea of all in with ACC in 2020..?
If Notre Dame-USC isn't at end of season due to realignment:

What if OU - USC & UT - UCLA played at the end of season..?
Eight games over three days, during Thanksgiving weekend:

(Thanksgiving) Thursday, November 28
*TCU @ Oregon - 2:30 pm [marquee conference game of the day] ABC

pPhXcu0.png

Colorado @ Kansas State - 6:30 pm PXCN

---

Friday, November 29
Washington @ Iowa State -11:00 am PXCN

*Oklahoma @ USC - 2:30 pm [marquee conference game of the day] CBS

g4uqXK8.png

Arizona State @ Texas Tech - 6:30 pm FS1

---

Saturday, November 30
Kansas @ California - 11:00 am PXCN

*UCLA @ Texas - 2:30 pm [marquee conference game of the day] FOX

7ry5J7w.png

Oklahoma State @ Arizona - 6:30 pm ESPN

---

XII (& PAC add-ons), wind up with 3 network deals, & PXCN...
OU (UT) & USC (UCLA), keep 7 regional foes in division too...

 

Edited by kopp0e

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While impractical and unprecedented, it's way less crazy than most of the crap in this thread. Interesting idea:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29424305/imagining-world-where-college-football-relegation-promotion

Impractical and unprecedented are what this thread was built on! Jolly good show!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Well, this guy "has it all figured out", probably post on dirt saying Oklahoma [& Kansas] to B1G is a lock in 2025...
 



But then I reply *I think Oklahoma rather stay in league with Texas, either raid USC/ UCLA, or join as pair in SEC...
I'd much rather OU play UT in conference (plus get Colorado back) vs splitting from UT, just to play NU & Illinois...
 



As it is, I highly doubt Texas will look to have a large swath of nothing (as far as rivals) between UT/ OU & B1G...
But I do think COVID may wind up reshaping CFB as media contracts could be in flux before 2025 for XII & PAC...

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Ugh, so fucking stupid. The block of UT and another texas school (I say TCU), OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU,. All are more valuable in football (and basketball too for some) than Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, and maybe even Indiana (football at least) and Illinois. Unless they want to go for a super mega conference, adding only KU and OU seems really stupid, especially by killing the OU-Texas rivalry, Bedlam, KU-KSU, and we've seen enough rivalry killing already.

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Posted (edited)

I don't see how that makes the Big 10 better than the SEC. Instead of Ohio State and company it would be Ohio State and more company.

Also: if OU is leaving I am pretty sure we would have to go with them. I am not sure why he is just assuming we would say no in a situation where OU is already going.

Edited by Valmy77

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Why would Texas go to the B16 with ou?  To play MN, NW, IA,IL, etc.. every year? That doesn't benefit us at all.  Big12 as is, is better and if we ever did have to move, it shouldn't be with the B16

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Posted (edited)

10 years ago, that Frank The Tank guy said the same shit.  10 years later, OU and Texas still have their own conference.

I'll bet anyone that 10 years from now, OU and Texas are not in the Big 10.  Or the SEC.  They're either in charge of something like the current Big 12 + some west coast schools, or we've completely realigned major college football into geographic divisions.

Edited by Al_4_ISU

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

Why would Texas go to the B16 with ou?  To play MN, NW, IA,IL, etc.. every year? That doesn't benefit us at all.  Big12 as is, is better and if we ever did have to move, it shouldn't be with the B16

I 100% agree. Staying in the Big 12 is much better than playing in the rust belt league for so many reasons.

But if OU is going...

I just don't get the assumptions this guy is making.

Edited by Valmy77

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58 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I 100% agree. Staying in the Big 12 is much better than playing in the rust belt league for so many reasons.

But if OU is going...

I just don't get the assumptions this guy is making.

It's the same assumption that has been made (incorrectly) for years.

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Nebraska is a sad shell of their former self in the B1G.  They may have been down in the 2000s in the Big 12, but at least they had rivals and were a conference leader.

They're just some other team now, even in their own division.  There's nothing about the B1G that would excite me. We would be on an island in that conference with OU the way WVU is here. 

 

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5 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Notre Dame to the ACC

 

 

  Hide contents

2020 only

 

 

 

This is the first step toward your inevitable assimilation.  Congratulations (I'm sorry).

 

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ND should just get it over with and join the ACC fully... and take WVU with them.    Big12 would have to pick up a replacement though.  BYU? CSU? 

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2 hours ago, Ace000087 said:

ND should just get it over with and join the ACC fully... and take WVU with them.    Big12 would have to pick up a replacement though.  BYU? CSU? 

at that point.. AZ schools?

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I would much rather stay at 10, but kick out Kansas and West Virginia and add the two Arizona schools.

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3 hours ago, Ace000087 said:

ND should just get it over with and join the ACC fully... and take WVU with them.    Big12 would have to pick up a replacement though.  BYU? CSU? 

If they change or replace teams they'll be going back to 12.  

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http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2020/aug/10/chaos-craziness-rein-as-college-football/

Tale of the Taint:  Chaos, craziness reign as college football carries a conference-realignment feel into August

Spoiler

Conference realignment this is not, but, in some ways, it might end up being bigger, as the very future of the NCAA as we know it might be at stake.

Either way, the current plight of college football is starting to look and feel a lot like those crazy days of 2010, when you couldn’t mow the lawn or go to the grocery store without feeling like you were going to miss something major.

While so much of the focus today is on whether or not there still will be a 2020 college football season this fall, the issues run way hotter than that. And they reach the boiling point when you get to the question of whether the uncertainty surrounding the summer of 2020 will be the event that inspires the major conferences to break away from the NCAA.

We’ve got primetime players talking about unionizing, which has to been a terrifying word for the NCAA. We’ve got other players saying they want to play this fall and still more saying it’s not safe. Who’s to say which side is right?

We’ve got coaches making comments and then issuing statements to clarify what they meant so people don’t freak out or at least don’t freak out further.

And we’ve got so many discussions happening behind closed doors that no one really knows what’s ahead, from one to day to the next or even one hour later.

Tweets are being deleted and no one knows anything while everyone knows everything at the same time.

In short, it’s total chaos.

As the Big 12 Conference continues to move forward with meetings and discussions about the upcoming football season and its reworked schedule, fans everywhere are bracing for the news nobody wants to hear — that the fall football seasons have been canceled because of COVID-19.

They’ve already done that at some levels and in some conferences. But we’re not there yet at the Power Five level.

Could we get there? Absolutely.

Could we reach the point where some of the Power Five conferences elect to play while others don’t? I don’t see why not.

Could we have programs or athletes from one conference effectively joining another just for 2020 so we can see something that resembles college football as we know it? Six months ago I would’ve called you crazy for saying yes to that question. But nothing seems crazy anymore.

Except for all of it, of course.

Multiple reports on Monday indicated that the powers that be in the Big 12 would meet in the next 24-48 hours to decide the fate of fall sports, with a specific eye on the football season.

So now we wait.

We’ll wait for news. We’ll wait for calls to be returned and sources to fill us in on the latest.

We’ll wait for reports from coast to coast and for someone to step up and make a decision about what comes next, not knowing, of course, whether what they decide or say will actually happen.

It would all be easier to follow and digest if there were more obvious right and wrong answers. And maybe there are.

If that’s the case, it would mostly just be nice to hear them.

 

Edited by clapclapclap
damn autocorrect

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On 6/20/2019 at 10:15 AM, IDIOTsavant said:

FYI, that was Drew Kelson. Sergio wore #2...he also didn't get to campus until 2006.

Maybe he tried to kill Joel after the game?

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1 minute ago, Richter said:

Maybe he tried to kill Joel after the game?

Are you saying that Sergio is a cyborg sent back in time by ESPN? Because I'm receptive to that theory.

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Nebraska is very very unhappy.

That article is being retweeted by the Governor of Nebraska.  I think they just figured out they are a red state school in a blue state conference.  Maybe it is not just about the TV dollars.

Time for the Big 12 to finally be smart and proactive and lift up her dang skirt and take advantage of an opportunity.

Edited by burdine

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6 minutes ago, burdine said:

Nebraska is very very unhappy.

That article is being retweeted by the Governor of Nebraska.  I think they just figured out they are a red state school in a blue state conference.  Maybe it is not just about the TV dollars.

Time for the Big 12 to finally be smart and proactive and lift up her dang skirt and take advantage of an opportunity.

The majority of Big 10 states voted for Trump.

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That was a big surprise at the time.  Michigan hadn't voted Republican since Reagan I think, but point taken.

I still think there is a crack of opportunity for Big 12 to be proactive here and earn some goodwill.

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I think it's clear that Texas wants to make the Big 12 work because the Pac is a mess and we would be on a geographic island in the B1G like WV is in the Big 12 and the B1G West is really not an exciting cast of characters.

Realistically, the Big 12 poaching from the B1G would be a huge narrative shift for the conference and, emotions aside, frankly good for Texas.

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it seems there is a crack and we should be working a crowbar in there to work it open wider.

As we have seen, opportunities to realign don't come along all the time.  

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Posted this in the other thread but is there any interest to bringing Nebraska back?  Most of me wants them to eat shit and die but add them and say, Arky, and that's a solid conference with some much needed hate in an otherwise bland conference.

ESPN would money whip that to prevent the Pac-16.

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2 hours ago, burdine said:

Nebraska is very very unhappy.

That article is being retweeted by the Governor of Nebraska.  I think they just figured out they are a red state school in a blue state conference.  Maybe it is not just about the TV dollars.

Time for the Big 12 to finally be smart and proactive and lift up her dang skirt and take advantage of an opportunity.

The governor is retweeting the Surly forums page?  Are we getting shut down again?

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5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Posted this in the other thread but is there any interest to bringing Nebraska back?  Most of me wants them to eat shit and die but add them and say, Arky, and that's a solid conference with some much needed hate in an otherwise bland conference.

ESPN would money whip that to prevent the Pac-16.


If you get a chance to add a program that's Top 10 all time by almost every metric, with one of the largest fanbases in the country... you take it. 

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1 hour ago, burdine said:

I think it's clear that Texas wants to make the Big 12 work because the Pac is a mess and we would be on a geographic island in the B1G like WV is in the Big 12 and the B1G West is really not an exciting cast of characters.

Realistically, the Big 12 poaching from the B1G would be a huge narrative shift for the conference and, emotions aside, frankly good for Texas.

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it seems there is a crack and we should be working a crowbar in there to work it open wider.

As we have seen, opportunities to realign don't come along all the time.  

The irony is not too long ago including many if not most of us on this board thought the BIG 12 was dead.  We wanted it to go fuck itself.

Now........ It's a real possibility it might not only survive, but thrive.

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Nebraska is very very unhappy.[/url]

That article is being retweeted by the Governor of Nebraska.  I think they just figured out they are a red state school in a blue state conference.  Maybe it is not just about the TV dollars.

Time for the Big 12 to finally be smart and proactive and lift up her dang skirt and take advantage of an opportunity.

Nebraska you’re unhappy with another conference?

 

0126ae624aacf8669a2e31b32bd22336.jpg

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2 hours ago, burdine said:

That was a big surprise at the time.  Michigan hadn't voted Republican since Reagan I think, but point taken.

I still think there is a crack of opportunity for Big 12 to be proactive here and earn some goodwill.

The Pac 12 sitting out is definitely a "blue state" thing, but I don't think that's the Big 10's agenda.  The only dyed in the wool blue states are Maryland, Illinois, and New Jersey and they don't give a shit about college football.  

There's a fear of liability that's obvious, as well as the potential ulterior motive of retaining the current status of amateurism.

Edited by Al_4_ISU

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y'all do know even if they came back, they would start whining about the conference within 2 years, right? The reason why I would take Arkansas back before corn is that piggy didn't blame Texas for all it's trouble heading out the door.  When you talk to corn fans on boards they always throw money in the convo now, since that's the end all be all now.  Fuck them.

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I am cool with Arkansas joining but why would they join? They fit well with the SEC and the conference is solid.

Nebraska belongs in the Big 12 North with ISU, K-State and Kansas.

Add Nebraska and kick WVU to the curb.

We can kidnap Colorado and allow Colorado State in as an act of good faith.

 

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