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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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11 hours ago, Parliament said:

Apologies if this is posted upthread.  It has an "interactive curve."  The peak for all of the US is April 14.  Texas is April 18.  Spring comes later in North Dakota and we don't peak until April 25.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Do they have a continuation of that into fall when everything is open again, social distancing is gone, and the virus returns for a second pass?

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I still see one or two holdouts on Facebook that covid-19 is obviously less dangerous than the flu. Had to remove one friend (high school classmate from 30+ yrs ago) when she started posting about Q and covid response.(no Cr)

I don’t remove them. I have 3-4 I use as touchstones for how a large percentage of society think and function. I want to punch them in their stupid fucking faces and debate them, but then they’d just remove me and I might become blissfully ignorant to how stupid we are as a species. Wait a second...

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Checking in from the silver linings department with the updated FT charts.  Looks like we put another day in the books with ~3d case doubling rate. God I hope that jog off 2d reflects social distancing measures that are starting to pay off, and we see a further flattening.  We are already off chart, they are going to have to add the next unit reflecting a run up to 1MM cases. if we do not flatten over the next 7 days it's gonna be nasty. Death doubling rate has held another day.

 

Annotation-2020-03-29-094554.png


Annotation-2020-03-29-094554b.png

Edited by Anastasis
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10 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It’s pretty much just like the flu, I mean it’s knocking off relatively healthy people under 40 but why sweat the details.  

I thought the same, but did a Facebook, google search to check, and I think they may have buried the pre-existing condition lead.  Still not good.

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8 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Anyone can add to that, look at China's numbers and throw them out the window, they are meaningless in any way. Look at other countries that have reliable numbers. 

please, elaborate with an example or two.  I'm open to seeing things differently.  I looked at China only because they spiked then flattened.  What I'm looking at is roughly how long did it take to flatten after strict isolation started and by how many multiples did numbers continue to increase after isolation started before flattening.  SK,HK,Sing,Taiwan all recognized what what happening in China jumped on it right away with masks, testing, and distancing so never had the spike Europe and the US are experiencing.  Absent China, there's no other available comparison.  that's all.

 

55 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

So looking at worldometer we are doubling deaths in the US about every three days. It will take two weeks before we know if SiP measures have helped, and we’ll be up to what 40 or 50K deaths by then?

A big chunk of Italy was in lockdown the first week of March and national lockdown by the 13th.  But even today, Italy's case rate and death rate are still doubling every 7 days.  That's a significant improvement compared to doubling every 3 days like the US and 4 days (France, Spain), but it's still serious ongoing expansion.  What separates the US is our comparatively high baseline case/death rate numbers when SIP started, and SIP is a very loose term for what's happening across our nation as a whole.  We'll be at 500 deaths/d today, so potentially at around 4000 deaths/d 9 days from now.  3 days after that, 8000 deaths/d ?  I can't imagine actually seeing something like 8k US deaths/d, but that's what the math says happens less than two weeks after SIP starts, and we're not doing all the things that boost SIP like the countries have that are showing sustained success, masks being a huge one.  Probably what we'll see is numbers not be full throttle hopefully starting next week due to regional rolling SIP that began in early March.  We'll see rates improve/stabilize first in the centers initially hit (SEA/NY/NJ/CA) while later expand/mushroom in the last places to seriously implement SIP measures.

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8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Checking in from the silver linings department with the updated FT charts.  Looks like we put another day in the books with ~3d doubling rate. God I hope that jog off 2d reflects social distancing measures that are starting to pay off, and we see a further flattening.  We are already off chart, they are going to have to add the next unit reflecting a run up to 1MM cases. if we do not flatten over the next 7 days it's gonna be nasty. Death doubling rate has held another day.

 

Annotation-2020-03-29-094554.png


Annotation-2020-03-29-094554b.png

Now do one with the 46k deaths estimated in China...

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1 minute ago, triplehorn said:

please, elaborate with an example or two.  I'm open to seeing things differently.  I looked at China only because they spiked then flattened.  What I'm looking at is roughly how long did it take to flatten after strict isolation started and by how many multiples did numbers continue to increase after isolation started before flattening.  SK,HK,Sing,Taiwan all recognized what what happening in China jumped on it right away with masks, testing, and distancing so never had the spike Europe and the US are experiencing.  Absent China, there's no other available comparison.  that's all.

 

The chinese numbers are garbage. 

China, followed by Japan, Singapore, and SK.

Annotation-2020-03-29-094554china.png
Annotation-2020-03-29-094554japan.png
Annotation-2020-03-29-094554sing.png
Annotation-2020-03-29-094554sk.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, XYZ said:

Yo, has anybody looked for surgical masks at CVS or Walgreens lately? Do they have any?

I see this is second time you’ve asked. Man, you can try, but youll have a hard finding masks. The n95 and regular masks were sold out of hardware stores, even small mom and pops, a month ago. I assume hospitals have gobbled up what’s left. I wouldn’t have much optimism. But if it isn’t busy in the store, it can’t hurt to look. 

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A big chunk of Italy was in lockdown the first week of March and national lockdown by the 13th.  But even today, Italy's case rate and death rate are still doubling every 7 days.  That's a significant improvement compared to doubling every 3 days like the US and 4 days (France, Spain), but it's still serious ongoing expansion.  What separates the US is our comparatively high baseline case/death rate numbers when SIP started, and SIP is a very loose term for what's happening across our nation as a whole.  We'll be at 500 deaths/d today, so potentially at around 4000 deaths/d 9 days from now.  3 days after that, 8000 deaths/d ?  I can't imagine actually seeing something like 8k US deaths/d, but that's what the math says happens less than two weeks after SIP starts, and we're not doing all the things that boost SIP like the countries have that are showing sustained success, masks being a huge one.  Probably what we'll see is numbers not be full throttle hopefully starting next week due to regional rolling SIP that began in early March.  We'll see rates improve/stabilize first in the centers initially hit (SEA/NY/NJ/CA) while later expand/mushroom in the last places to seriously implement SIP measures.

so the 3 day doubles should expand the higher the count gets since we’re only seeing about 100 death/day spikes. Nothing crazy,hopefully ever. Let’s hope our epicenter,NY, starts seeing some flattening effects soon. I can’t imagine any place in America seeing the case load they have.
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8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Yo, has anybody looked for surgical masks at CVS or Walgreens lately? Do they have any?

I doubt you're going to find any. Perhaps if you're lucky to be there when they might be restocking but I would think it would still be tough.   

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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15 minutes ago, ABSR said:

I thought the same, but did a Facebook, google search to check, and I think they may have buried the pre-existing condition lead.  Still not good.

Half of the United States population has heart disease. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2019/01/31/heart-disease-nearly-half-u-s-adults-have-it-study-finds/2729955002/

We are one big pre-existing condition. 

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Of course, if there is a viable treatment plan to prevents cases from becoming serious or critical as well as mass testing (preferably rapid results testing and at home antibody tests), then perhaps things can go back to normal quicker.

It feels like we will be knee-deep into the fall cases before we see easy testing and treatments. 

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10 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


so the 3 day doubles should expand the higher the count gets since we’re only seeing about 100 death/day spikes. Nothing crazy,hopefully ever. Let’s hope our epicenter,NY, starts seeing some flattening effects soon. I can’t imagine any place in America seeing the case load they have.

No, that isn't how this works. We aren't "only seeing about 100 death/day spikes." We are seeing an relative increase from the previous day of ~26%. The bigger our numbers get, the bigger the increase in daily deaths will get until we start seeing some effects from our haphazard mitigation efforts.  

Edited by Dahobbs
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14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


so the 3 day doubles should expand the higher the count gets since we’re only seeing about 100 death/day spikes. Nothing crazy,hopefully ever. Let’s hope our epicenter,NY, starts seeing some flattening effects soon. I can’t imagine any place in America seeing the case load they have.

I'm keeping an eye on these tables here, (scroll down to see day over day bar graphs for each country)

 

17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

  The chinese numbers are garbage. 

China, followed by Japan, Singapore, and SK.

What's really striking about those graphs is the y-axis values for Japan, Singapore, and SK.  Their total cases to date are a fraction of the total we're already adding each day. 

Japan and SoKo deaths are doubling every 13 days right now.

 

Edited by triplehorn
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59 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Am I the only one that wakes up and for a few seconds I'm unsure what day of the week it is.  Daily routine of rarely leaving the house makes every day seem the same.

Lost track of it being Saturday yesterday.  And we had to put up calendars for our first grader, because he is way off.  

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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Hadn't really thought of that, but yeah-- there are likely people that are having to sell off their valuables to buy food and pay rent.  So pawn shops might actually be way more "essential" than Lowes...

Its a poor man's loan office. the surl 1% just don't understand man...

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What special laws/orders/whatever are in place in Austin currently related to COVID-19? There’s a “shelter in place” order for Travis County, yes? There’s also an executive order from the governor mandating self-isolation for air travelers coming from NY and New Orleans. What else?

Edited by XYZ
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2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

What special laws/orders/whatever are in place in Austin currently related to COVID-19? There’s a “shelter in place” order for Travis County, yes? There’s also an executive order from the governor mandating self-isolation for air travelers coming from NY and New Orleans. What else?

The whole thing is not very uniform.  

If you drive from New Orleans coughing and running a fever the whole time, the state of Texas doesn’t care.  

If you fly from New Orleans, even if no fever, you have to fill out paperwork listing where you will be for two weeks and agreeing to a quarantine, and DPS will send troopers to those places check up that you are quarantining.  

Austin has a host of restrictions to try to keep social interaction down.    Drive half an hour or 45 minutes in various directions, and those restrictions evaporate.  

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12 hours ago, Stunns38 said:


A client’s brother decided to drive to their parents’ house in Memphis because they could no longer stay in an small Manhattan apt with a 1-year old. Drove almost non-stop, only taking quick naps in hotel parking lots. Sad thing is that they’re exposing their elderly parents. We’re going to hear a lot more instances of it spreading this way.

In my friend's situation, her sister owned a house that was vacant at the moment.  She is quarantining there with the pups.  No personal contact with parents, relatives, etc.

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21 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

What's really striking about those graphs is the y-axis values for Japan, Singapore, and SK.  Their total cases to date are a fraction of the total we're already adding each day. 

Japan and SoKo deaths are doubling every 13 days right now.

 

Yes, we can add that to the list of known things, right after "The Chinese data are garbage."

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The whole thing is not very uniform.  

If you drive from New Orleans coughing and running a fever the whole time, the state of Texas doesn’t care.  

If you fly from New Orleans, even if no fever, you have to fill out paperwork listing where you will be for two weeks and agreeing to a quarantine, and DPS will send troopers to those places check up that you are quarantining.  

Austin has a host of restrictions to try to keep social interaction down.    Drive half an hour or 45 minutes in various directions, and those restrictions evaporate.  

North of Austin is all locked down, so you would have to go much further in that direction.  

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2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I dont get this either.   And Cuomo was trying hard yesterday to debate the logic.  If NYers flee in numbers to other places they must make it worse.  

this.  President says we may need to quarantine the place that has 35-40% of the problem thus far, where the governor is saying we need more help, and his people are leaving the city in droves, likely infecting others(especially if they are driving long distances) and the knee jerk response is no way that doesn't make sense.  Actually it makes perfect sense...if quarantining and not moving is the answer everyone is screaming about.

the interesting thing is NYC/Long Island actually is one of the places you could actually really quarantine pretty well.

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