Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

Featured Replies

  • Replies 58.2k
  • Views 4.3m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Uncle Boobs
    Uncle Boobs

    Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

  • Brisketexan
    Brisketexan

    Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

  • Coelenterate Fuccboi
    Coelenterate Fuccboi

    Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

Posted Images

Just now, BabaYaga said:

Forget the outlet, and probably already posted, but CA antibody tests are 50X larger than anticipated.  We're seeing this in many other markets - giving the impression this has been here much longer than originally anticipated, is much less lethal than first thought, has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers, and hunkering everyone down is actually doing very little to stop the spread of a virus that was circulating unchecked for months and months.

It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

National Jewish Health is doing testing for those who want it to see if they have the antibodies.

Considering it, because I really think I had it. 

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

I know lots of lots of people fitting that profile precisely, including people in my own house. 

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

LOL. The WHO "accidentally" front ran the release of data by publishing draft results on their website.

Nice job WHO dumbfucks. 

giphy.gif

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

tenor.gif?itemid=12040022

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SIAP.  Convenience sample of 3k people at grocery stores across state of NY reveal 14% of subjects had COVID antibodies.

56% more for herd immunity to begin to kick-in for public health purposes (you want 90% to eradicate, 70% is minimum). 60k more deaths in New York State assuming similar rate.

This is not promising.
2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I know lots of lots of people fitting that profile precisely, including people in my own house. 

tenor.gif?itemid=15630066

Forget the outlet, and probably already posted, but CA antibody tests are 50X larger than anticipated.  We're seeing this in many other markets - giving the impression this has been here much longer than originally anticipated, is much less lethal than first thought, has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers, and hunkering everyone down is actually doing very little to stop the spread of a virus that was circulating unchecked for months and months.
It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

Minnesota has had its largest test day, a whopping 2200 and largest case day, 220 in one day. No schools mid March, shelter in place since March 28th. This shit is so spread out by now, going back to finish the job and salvage the economy has to be the best only viable option
42 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Again, just stay the fuck home unless you are really needed. I for one am welcoming the hair gods of decades past. If it gets out of control going with the Screaming Eagle look of June 05, 1994. 

Buckle up boys and girls, we’re about to get all Michael Landon up in here

spacer.png

Edited by atomheartbevo

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

 

  • Author
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Buckle boys and girls, we’re about to get all Michael Landon up in here

spacer.png

nah brah, going for the Spicoli look. 

jeffspicoli3.jpg

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

nah brah, going for the Spicoli look. 

jeffspicoli3.jpg

Robin Williams in Jumanji, come June

spacer.png

 

Ways out of current sheltering and social distancing:

Human intervention:

>Test and Trace with gradually lightening rules based on zoning
>Vaccination
>Treatment

Divine intervention:

>Disease mutation
>Unknown disease vectors
>Unknown human resistance
>Unknown environmental vectors
>Unknown unknowns

Because Texas is bottom-five in testing, I think we’ll be relying on divine intervention to stop outbreaks from re-occurring as more people interact with each other.

And Remdesivir flops on first real trial.  I called that about 200 pages ago.  No magic drug, people.  Period. 

Thanks for sharing. Unfortunately that's not a surprise. There were reports of doctors trying it here and there for months. It wasn't a secret. If it was going to be some breakthrough, the medical community would have really been buzzing by now.

Will treatment appearing over the summer/ fall remain a popular theory on surly?
10 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Ways out of current sheltering and social distancing:

Human intervention:

>Test and Trace with gradually lightening rules based on zoning
>Vaccination
>Treatment

Divine intervention:

>Disease mutation
>Unknown disease vectors
>Unknown human resistance
>Unknown environmental vectors
>Unknown unknowns

Because Texas is bottom-five in testing, I think we’ll be relying on divine intervention to stop outbreaks from re-occurring as more people interact with each other.

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

Edited by BrazilHorn

43 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I never said it was impervious to an economic melt down. I said it's strong, as is real estate, and as long as they are things will get better faster.  Run along  now the CR cesspool is opened back up for the children's swim session..

ok, but be honest...going back and reading what you posted...how completely devoid of meaning was that statement? lulz

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.
It will be a ethics debate for the ages.
RIP surly
  • Author

Fuck The Who,  I mean the WHO.... 

 

Edited by InkaUtexas

For your livestock update cattle slaughter rates stayed steady, off 1K from yesterday with Tyson temporarily stopping a plant in Washington for test, and work that'll restart in Dakota City on Monday. Beef prices hit new highs on the morning run, but leveled off a bit. If plants start coming back on Monday as advertised it should goose beef production pretty good.

Hog slaughter runs were up about 12K from yesterday, and we are at about 83% of last year's runs right now. Fresh pork worked higher but still below the spike highs which might hold if we can get back over 415K or so by the first part of the week. 

 

20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

Nah, I saw on the news this morning that nicotine actually wards off the sharonavirus.

5 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Nah, I saw on the news this morning that nicotine actually wards off the sharonavirus.

Truth. Once the host dies, the virus stops.

30 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

I hope obviously for a recovery of jobs and assets.  I also hope this is a wake up for all the jelly-bellies out there sucking down nonsense every day.  One of the primary "pre-existing conditions" impacting negatively survival rates is being a fat fuck. The stress put on your body from such a lifestyle makes you so susceptible.  

If not this round, the next will catch up with them....

2179d897c0a420e8eed163d6818858e5.jpg

Edited by BabaYaga

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
9 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:
At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.
It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

RIP surly

If you mean Surly collapses from the ethics debate, I don't disagree with you. It is going to be nuts.

7 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

8 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Stanford studies / antibody test in CA showing similar with lower mortality....less than flu some seasons. 

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

Are these random tests or is there a greater number of people who were interested in getting the test because they had felt under the weather last month and were interested in finding out if they had it?

13 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting

 

if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

14 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Actually, if you apply the %s just for NYC and Long Island to their populations, you get to over 3 million infected.

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

If you have to ask, you’re a fattie?

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

How big them titties?

3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

It is good news. When calculating the mortality rate you divide deaths by infected. The smaller the denominator, the higher the mortality rate. If they currently have 257,216 confirmed cases with 15,302 deaths the mortality rate is 5.9%. That is significant and a very deadly illness. If the denominator becomes 13.9% of the state population (19,450,000) or 2,703,550 the mortality rate becomes .57%.

7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting

 

if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

spacer.png

17 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

If you mean Surly collapses from the ethics debate, I don't disagree with you. It is going to be nuts.

More like Surly collapses under the weight of underlying conditions.

Just because we bang 10s and wash our asses with bidets powered by coconut water, doesn’t mean we are all within 5 pounds of our ideal weight.  

59 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

ok, but be honest...going back and reading what you posted...how completely devoid of meaning was that statement? lulz

None at all. I was making  a comment about the economic state of affairs at the time, how the housing industry and real estate were both solid and expanding.  And how I felt if they were able to weather the storm would help lead us out of the pandemic, and back near  the economy we've been experiencing the last 24-36 months. 

How was that meaningless ? lulz....??  And in reality, how Meaningful is anything being said here EVER ?  It's so much blather by a bunch of bored posters

Edited by Onboard 2.0

28 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

if you do it for NYC(21.2%) its about .67%

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting
 
if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

Add a 0 to that 10
8 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Oui oui senor...

That makes me trilingual for those of you watching at home.

Take it easy Clouseau

21 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

Stanford studies / antibody test in CA showing similar with lower mortality....less than flu some seasons. 

 

19 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Are these random tests or is there a greater number of people who were interested in getting the test because they had felt under the weather last month and were interested in finding out if they had it?

Yeah, that was a problem with the Stanford study. They advertised for study participants rather than doing any sort of random sampling. It is really hard to ignore the potential self-selection bias (those that think they have or had the virus are more likely to want to participate) that creates. This New York study sounds like it has a better methodology, but we'll need to see more about it to be sure. 

NY state is a hot zone so 14% isn't realistic.  lets say overall country is at 8% with 330M pop you get 26M

44000/26000000 you get .17%

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Yeah, that was a problem with the Stanford study. They advertised for study participants rather than doing any sort of random sampling. It is really hard to ignore the potential self-selection bias (those that think they have or had the virus are more likely to want to participate) that creates. This New York study sounds like it has a better methodology, but we'll need to see more about it to be sure. 

I only got to skim some stuff, so may have missed something, but it sounded like a convenience sample taken at grocery stores. 

18 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

It is good news. When calculating the mortality rate you divide deaths by infected. The smaller the denominator, the higher the mortality rate. If they currently have 257,216 confirmed cases with 15,302 deaths the mortality rate is 5.9%. That is significant and a very deadly illness. If the denominator becomes 13.9% of the state population (19,450,000) or 2,703,550 the mortality rate becomes .57%.

I understand the mortality rate. I was referring to the “3.6 % of the rest of the state” part when you remove the 3 hotspots.

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I only got to skim some stuff, so may have missed something, but it sounded like a convenience sample taken at grocery stores. 

Yeah, that has other issues, like potential under counting since those with active infection would presumably avoid the grocery stores. It also still potentially has a self-selection problem. But, still I think better than pure advertising and only counting those interested enough to respond. 

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.