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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I really don't get it.

The virus isn't a hoax, real-deal measures needed to be taken and still need to be taken.  Minimizing large group activities that can be limited, and wearing masks, seem to be two obvious ones.

Life, education, and business must go on to the extent possible.  If we can take reasonable protective measures that will allow things to proceed at a relatively low risk (masks, plexiglass dividers in some places, etc.), we should do that -- that way, we can go forward with important activities.

The virus is real, and a significant threat to life and health.  Continuing to live our lives is very important.  Accepting that both of those things are true, there are ways to forge a good path.  But we can't do that.  Because teams, tribes, etc.

Yeah but the numbers look good right now so that means that we're done and can reopen, and if you don't want to reopen then you hate football and the economy! [/rpspeed]

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23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yeah but the numbers look good right now so that means that we're done and can reopen, and if you don't want to reopen then you hate football and the economy! [/rpspeed]

uses the good news (THAT IS A DIRECT RESULT OF MASK USAGE, among other measures that should have been enacted from the jump that would have saved lives) to...wait for it...mock mask usage.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

uses the good news (THAT IS A DIRECT RESULT OF MASK USAGE, among other measures that should have been enacted from the jump that would have saved lives) to...wait for it...mock mask usage.

 

 

I wasnt mocking masks. I was mocking you.

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18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I really don't get it.

The virus isn't a hoax, real-deal measures needed to be taken and still need to be taken.  Minimizing large group activities that can be limited, and wearing masks, seem to be two obvious ones.

Life, education, and business must go on to the extent possible.  If we can take reasonable protective measures that will allow things to proceed at a relatively low risk (masks, plexiglass dividers in some places, etc.), we should do that -- that way, we can go forward with important activities.

The virus is real, and a significant threat to life and health.  Continuing to live our lives is very important.  Accepting that both of those things are true, there are ways to forge a good path.  But we can't do that.  Because teams, tribes, etc.

I've never once claimed the virus is a hoax. I'm not going to end up on TMZ over a mask, I'll wear one inside when required but I'm not going to stop living life either.

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1 hour ago, rpspeed said:

You're gonna upset some people with more positive news. They'll demand we wear masks in the shower now.

Literally nobody in this thread is upset that the numbers are trending in the right direction. In fact, the only negative I see to Covid receding is that it's brought ChickenSandwich and his Kung Flu updates back. 

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8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

uses the good news (THAT IS A DIRECT RESULT OF MASK USAGE, among other measures that should have been enacted from the jump that would have saved lives) to...wait for it...mock mask usage.

 

 

Or that low herd immunity is actually real and virus gonna virus with or without masks.   You can’t say one thing works without acknowledging that another does as well, yet you continually fucking do it.   

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16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yeah but the numbers look good right now so that means that we're done and can reopen, and if you don't want to reopen then you hate football and the economy! [/rpspeed]

I dont know where you live but football/school has been going on for 3 weeks here. Other than people wearing masks inside life is pretty much normal and has been all summer, nothing left to reopen except the Chick fil A dining room.

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1 minute ago, rpspeed said:

I dont know where you live but football/school has been going on for 3 weeks here. Other than people wearing masks inside life is pretty much normal and has been all summer, nothing left to reopen except the Chick fil A dining room.

If normal is approximately 1000 Americans dying each week from a communicable disease, then sure I guess. 

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Or that low herd immunity is actually real and virus gonna virus with or without masks.   

The problem with low herd immunity is that it's a really, really dangerous assumption and if leadership and society at large begins to believe in it and act upon it, and it's not true, then it would completely re-fuck us. Which is why being able to think in nuance is important. It's one thing to be aware of the possibility and consider that it might be happening and be anxiously awaiting data to learn more about it and hopefully validate it. That's where most of us are at. It's another thing completely to be running around talking as if it's a 100% real thing magic bullet, saying things like "every place in the world has followed the same curve after their initial peak!" (easily disprovable), and acting like we're out of the woods. That's impulsive and dangerous. I think that's what riles people up.

And no I'm not saying that you're guilty of the above, speaking in generalities.

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

The problem with low herd immunity is that it's a really, really dangerous assumption and if leadership and society at large begins to believe in it and act upon it, and it's not true, then it would completely re-fuck us. Which is why being able to think in nuance is important. It's one thing to be aware of the possibility and consider that it might be happening and be anxiously awaiting data to learn more about it and hopefully validate it. That's where most of us are at. It's another thing completely to be running around talking as if it's a 100% real thing magic bullet, saying things like "every place in the world has followed the same curve after their initial peak!" (easily disprovable), and acting like we're out of the woods. That's impulsive and dangerous. I think that's what riles people up.

And no I'm not saying that you're guilty of the above, speaking in generalities.

I hear what you’re saying.  You and I think in nuance.  I’m saying acknowledging that it may actually be part of the reason in the decline is as important as acknowledging that mask usage is working.  It’s not a one or another.  But fucksticks like some of those above believe it is only one or the other.   It’s a belief that only the strong hand of government cures things and not that fucking science is science and viruses kinda do what they do.  I’m not espousing a theory that it’s the only thing working, but it’s pretty gotdamn convenient that the data pulled from many nations and areas around the world looks pretty close once we reached a communicable threshold.   Or it’s because there’s something to it.   That’s all I’m saying 

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2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

WTF is happening to this thread? Did everyone run out of bourbon at the exact same time, get the "DTs" and start pounding away on their keyboards? Stop all the political back and forth you fuckwits. Take that shit to CR and bomb away.

We should be happy right now. Numbers are moving in right direction. We are (speaking for Travis County) where we were three months ago almost to the day in terms of # hospitalized, # of new hospital admits, daily cases etc.

This is great fucking news. It happened because the bars were shut down, people put their masks back on and everyone chilled the fuck out for a couple of months.

We had a week in July where over 70 people a day in Travis county were being admitted to the hospital for CV19. Shit was borked.

Now that Travis has shown it knows how to manage its shit, I believe you can open things up slowly (bars that is). I would follow the "Breckenridge" model. Close 6th street & Rainey Street etc to car traffic. Put tables outdoors in front of the bars, enforce social distancing in bars dramatically and enforce/fine the shit out of bars that go over occupancy. Do this for a bit and see if people can keep it together. This isn't rocket science. We have been seeing what causes peaks and valleys in virus cases since March:

If you cram lots of people in an enclosed space and they aren't wearing masks: bars/nursing homes/cruise ships eg you WILL get an increase in CV19 infections, these infected people will go home and give it to others. Those others will.....You get it. This isn't that hard a concept.

I am not worried about "flooding" the hospitals here in Travis county. I am worried about moving back to a more restrictive Stage. I have enjoyed going to yoga class again, I have enjoyed being able to eat out again, I enjoyed going to Austin Beerworks this past weekend. I don't want a bunch of fucktards to mess it up. I also want to see my 8th grader play football this fall. If Austin can hold its shit together that may happen.

Everyone crack open a beverage, chill the fuck out and be happy that Travis county seems to be getting its arms around this (again)

For the record I never said  I was anti mask. Its obvious they helped and should be worn when appropriate. I personally won't wear one outside but if it makes others feel better to do it I dont criticize.

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15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I hear what you’re saying.  You and I think in nuance.  I’m saying acknowledging that it may actually be part of the reason in the decline is as important as acknowledging that mask usage is working.  It’s not a one or another. 

dude. 12 minutes before you posted this:

Quote

virus gonna virus with or without masks.

you have brain worms.

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23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If normal is approximately 1000 Americans dying each week from a communicable disease, then sure I guess. 

Well.....it may be.  And here's the thing.....if that ends up being our baseline, that's not terrible.  It's 52,000 dead per year, at that level.  That makes this -- yep -- just like "The Flu 2: Electric Boogaloo."  If we end up dealing with a new, endemic infectious disease that kills at or below the rate of the seasonal flu, then that may just be life going forward.

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's basically a 9/11 every 3 weeks and yet....

See above.  People die of infectious diseases.  We can't work for a goal of "even one death is too many!"  We all know that's just not achievable, regarding ANY disease.  I would suggest that knocking this back to being like the flu, or less, is a reasonable goal.  With an effective vaccine, I suspect we can knock it significantly below that, in the long term.

11 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

WTF is happening to this thread? Did everyone run out of bourbon at the exact same time, get the "DTs" and start pounding away on their keyboards? Stop all the political back and forth you fuckwits. Take that shit to CR and bomb away.

We should be happy right now. Numbers are moving in right direction. We are (speaking for Travis County) where we were three months ago almost to the day in terms of # hospitalized, # of new hospital admits, daily cases etc.

This is great fucking news. It happened because the bars were shut down, people put their masks back on and everyone chilled the fuck out for a couple of months.

We had a week in July where over 70 people a day in Travis county were being admitted to the hospital for CV19. Shit was borked.

Now that Travis has shown it knows how to manage its shit, I believe you can open things up slowly (bars that is). I would follow the "Breckenridge" model. Close 6th street & Rainey Street etc to car traffic. Put tables outdoors in front of the bars, enforce social distancing in bars dramatically and enforce/fine the shit out of bars that go over occupancy. Do this for a bit and see if people can keep it together. This isn't rocket science. We have been seeing what causes peaks and valleys in virus cases since March:

If you cram lots of people in an enclosed space and they aren't wearing masks: bars/nursing homes/cruise ships eg you WILL get an increase in CV19 infections, these infected people will go home and give it to others. Those others will.....You get it. This isn't that hard a concept.

I am not worried about "flooding" the hospitals here in Travis county. I am worried about moving back to a more restrictive Stage. I have enjoyed going to yoga class again, I have enjoyed being able to eat out again, I enjoyed going to Austin Beerworks this past weekend. I don't want a bunch of fucktards to mess it up. I also want to see my 8th grader play football this fall. If Austin can hold its shit together that may happen.

Everyone crack open a beverage, chill the fuck out and be happy that Travis county seems to be getting its arms around this (again)

Good post.  This is very much where I am.  Actually ate lunch with the boy in the Luby's dining room today -- sat in a booth, separated from the crowd, and it was good.  Live your life.  Be smart.  Take reasonable measures.  We can and should move incrementally and intelligently to slowly increase activities.  Including businesses and yes, including schools.  Let's view, dispassionately and objectively, the data coming in from other places that have gone back to in-person schooling -- not just infection rates, but rates of serious illness, hospitalization, and death.  If there are high "positives," but minimal actual negative effects, that would be great.  But we shall see.  Keep moving, slow, steady, and smart.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well.....it may be.  And here's the thing.....if that ends up being our baseline, that's not terrible.  It's 52,000 dead per year, at that level.  That makes this -- yep -- just like "The Flu 2: Electric Boogaloo."  If we end up dealing with a new, endemic infectious disease that kills at or below the rate of the seasonal flu, then that may just be life going forward.

See above.  People die of infectious diseases.  We can't work for a goal of "even one death is too many!"  We all know that's just not achievable, regarding ANY disease.  I would suggest that knocking this back to being like the flu, or less, is a reasonable goal.  With an effective vaccine, I suspect we can knock it significantly below that, in the long term.

Good post.  This is very much where I am.  Actually ate lunch with the boy in the Luby's dining room today -- sat in a booth, separated from the crowd, and it was good.  Live your life.  Be smart.  Take reasonable measures.  We can and should move incrementally and intelligently to slowly increase activities.  Including businesses and yes, including schools.  Let's view, dispassionately and objectively, the data coming in from other places that have gone back to in-person schooling -- not just infection rates, but rates of serious illness, hospitalization, and death.  If there are high "positives," but minimal actual negative effects, that would be great.  But we shall see.  Keep moving, slow, steady, and smart.

This is where I'm at. It just seems a few think you are cheering on the apocalypse if you suggest anything other than hunker down inside your home.

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Neighbor is saying their kid (UT student) was told they'd have to test negative to attend UT sporting events.  Anybody heard this?

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/ut-students-needs-negative-covid-19-test-to-attend-seasons-first-longhorn-football-game

 

Quote

“As an added safety measure, all Big Ticket holders wishing to claim a ticket for Saturday’s football game must take a complimentary rapid SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) antigen test this Friday, Sept. 11 between 9 a.m. – 4 p.m. Only Big Ticket holders who receive a negative test result will have the opportunity to claim a game ticket.”

 

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28 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

dude. 12 minutes before you posted this:

you have brain worms.

Yeah.  And there's data from France showing where required mask usage inside anywhere is followed by a massive spike in new cases.  Is it because the masks limited the spike from going further, or is it because a virus will do virus things?  I'm not saying masks don't help.  I never have.  I wear a mask inside the grocery, walking to my table at the restaurant and from my table to the pisser.  I wear one walking into my office building and take it off once in my office and the door is shut.  I also spend less time in the office than normal.  I wash my hands all the time and have for years.   I'm saying that masks alone, and shutdowns alone, and other shit alone aren't the singular or combined reasons for the thing decreasing.  It's a large combination of that and the science of how viruses work and how our bodies work.  I'm not the one lacking nuance here.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

yes, that's exactly what you said. you traffic in a world where there is no daylight between what is true and what is a lie. it's all just whatever you want it to be in that moment.

No, you chose to read it in a manner where I said masks don't help.  I said that a virus is going to do what it does.  How the fuck did California, who's been locked down and masked up as long as New York more or less, have basically the same exact spike as Texas "who reopened and did shit to quickly"??  Have the masks helped?  Yes, to some extent.  Have the lockdowns helped?  Yes to some extent.  Are they the reason cases are declining?  Pretty hard to say when you look at California and you look at Texas/Florida/AZ who had much lower restrictions and all had pretty much the same data.  

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34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Neighbor is saying their kid (UT student) was told they'd have to test negative to attend UT sporting events.  Anybody heard this?

I read that this morning.  They have to pass a rapid test on Friday to be allowed in on Saturday (for football). 

https://cbsaustin.com/news/coronavirus/ut-students-needs-negative-covid-19-test-to-attend-seasons-first-longhorn-football-game

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13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No, you chose to read it in a manner where I said masks don't help.  I said that a virus is going to do what it does.  How the fuck did California, who's been locked down and masked up as long as New York more or less, have basically the same exact spike as Texas "who reopened and did shit to quickly"??  Have the masks helped?  Yes, to some extent.  Have the lockdowns helped?  Yes to some extent.  Are they the reason cases are declining?  Pretty hard to say when you look at California and you look at Texas/Florida/AZ who had much lower restrictions and all had pretty much the same data.  

Uh, California also reopened too quickly and acknowledged as such, as they had to lock it all back down. 

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27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

And there's data from France showing where required mask usage inside anywhere is followed by a massive spike in new cases.  Is it because the masks limited the spike from going further, or is it because a virus will do virus things? 

This is literally saying masks don't help. You are intimating that they don't make a difference and use an unsourced example showing that mask usage increases cases.

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No, you chose to read it in a manner where I said masks don't help.  I said that a virus is going to do what it does.  How the fuck did California, who's been locked down and masked up as long as New York more or less, have basically the same exact spike as Texas "who reopened and did shit to quickly"??  Have the masks helped?  Yes, to some extent.  Have the lockdowns helped?  Yes to some extent.  Are they the reason cases are declining?  Pretty hard to say when you look at California and you look at Texas/Florida/AZ who had much lower restrictions and all had pretty much the same data.  

the issue is that the restrictions and safety measures have not been uniformly followed by the entire population. This does result in a net decrease of spread, but it keeps a pretty high baseline going. I posted a good explainer vid of how epidemics spread and modeling different levels of mitigations and the widespread usage of them. Lemme see if I can dig it up, but I argue that our current "not completely fucked" state has more to do with the summer months typically suppressing viral respiratory disease and the roughly 50% (per Dr. Fauci's congressional testimony) "real" rate of shutdown to slow the spread, not the planned 75-80% like Europe did.

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This is another thing to look at and see that we may be getting to or have passed an inflection point... Daily expected deaths of any cause nationally began to turn at the end of August.
 
 

Levitts been a good follow during all of this. Don’t let chopper see this. He called ethical skeptic a dumbass for saying this exact thing.
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38 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah.  And there's data from France showing where required mask usage inside anywhere is followed by a massive spike in new cases.  Is it because the masks limited the spike from going further, or is it because a virus will do virus things?  I'm not saying masks don't help.  I never have.  I wear a mask inside the grocery, walking to my table at the restaurant and from my table to the pisser.  I wear one walking into my office building and take it off once in my office and the door is shut.  I also spend less time in the office than normal.  I wash my hands all the time and have for years.   I'm saying that masks alone, and shutdowns alone, and other shit alone aren't the singular or combined reasons for the thing decreasing.  It's a large combination of that and the science of how viruses work and how our bodies work.  I'm not the one lacking nuance here.  

 

 

wait, is there a Sturgis, France?

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43 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No, you chose to read it in a manner where I said masks don't help.  I said that a virus is going to do what it does.  How the fuck did California, who's been locked down and masked up as long as New York more or less, have basically the same exact spike as Texas "who reopened and did shit to quickly"??  Have the masks helped?  Yes, to some extent.  Have the lockdowns helped?  Yes to some extent.  Are they the reason cases are declining?  Pretty hard to say when you look at California and you look at Texas/Florida/AZ who had much lower restrictions and all had pretty much the same data.  

each of your posts contradicts the one before it. you have brain worms. unfortunately there is no cure.

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Or that low herd immunity is actually real and virus gonna virus with or without masks.   You can’t say one thing works without acknowledging that another does as well, yet you continually fucking do it.   

Herd immunity is absolutely a thing but even those states which are benefitting from herd immunity don't want to believe - e.g. this clip from NY Governor, who seems perplexed that cases aren't rising as their economy reopens.

And then there's Sweden (which we know never locked down):

And then in our country states that have re-opened schools haven't seen a spike in hospitalizations.  The evidence is there for herd immunity - many just don't want to believe it.

All of this is NOT to say we shouldn't be wearing masks - continue to wear masks, respect the virus and its lethality (especially to the olds and fatties), and be smart.

But the schools should have re-opened fully for in-person already.

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13 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Herd immunity is absolutely a thing but even those states which are benefitting from herd immunity don't want to believe - e.g. this clip from NY Governor, who seems perplexed that cases aren't rising as their economy reopens.

And then there's Sweden (which we know never locked down):

And then in our country states that have re-opened schools haven't seen a spike in hospitalizations.  The evidence is there for herd immunity - many just don't want to believe it.

All of this is NOT to say we shouldn't be wearing masks - continue to wear masks, respect the virus and its lethality (especially to the olds and fatties), and be smart.

But the schools should have re-opened fully for in-person already.

Wait, I thought our superiors in Europe had this under control. 

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  I hope those NY establishments are able to survive from take out and outdoor seating which I’m sure most places don’t have outdoor patios

 

 

25% is a joke

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If you look at Sweden and think they did it right, you are either a moron or are okay with thousands of your fellow citizens dying. Look at countries with similar population sizes as Sweden. Notice any difference? A crap ton more deaths. Oh unless you compare them with Bolivia. But hey, that’s what we want, we did as good a job as Bolivia!!

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14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you look at Sweden and think they did it right, you are either a moron or are okay with thousands of your fellow citizens dying. Look at countries with similar population sizes as Sweden. Notice any difference? A crap ton more deaths. Oh unless you compare them with Bolivia. But hey, that’s what we want, we did as good a job as Bolivia!!

 I didn't say Sweden did it right - I said the evidence suggests they've reached herd immunity.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't protect their olds and 90% of their deaths were from 70+ in age.   Per capita, they're at #13  in the world in death...certainly not great and they themselves would say they learned some valuable lessons for early in the crisis.  But even their journos say the virus is pretty much stopped at this point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/909793678/swedish-approach-to-the-pandemic-is-it-working
 

Herd immunity doesn't explain everything and I've said that masks absolutely slow the spread but the Sweden experience is useful in planning for future pandemics (how to protect the most vulnerable, which they didn't do a good job of in March/April and would need refinement, while keeping the economy rolling on the way to HI).

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30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you look at Sweden and think they did it right, you are either a moron or are okay with thousands of your fellow citizens dying. Look at countries with similar population sizes as Sweden. Notice any difference? A crap ton more deaths. Oh unless you compare them with Bolivia. But hey, that’s what we want, we did as good a job as Bolivia!!

They are morons who are ok with thousands of their fellow citizens dying.

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I read that this morning.  They have to pass a rapid test on Friday to be allowed in on Saturday (for football). 

https://cbsaustin.com/news/coronavirus/ut-students-needs-negative-covid-19-test-to-attend-seasons-first-longhorn-football-game

So, get your rapid test, then hit the bars Friday night and get infected. 

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5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 I didn't say Sweden did it right - I said the evidence suggests they've reached herd immunity.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't protect their olds and 90% of their deaths were from 70+ in age.   Per capita, they're at #13  in the world in death...certainly not great and they themselves would say they learned some valuable lessons for early in the crisis.  But even their journos say the virus is pretty much stopped at this point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/04/909793678/swedish-approach-to-the-pandemic-is-it-working
 

Herd immunity doesn't explain everything and I've said that masks absolutely slow the spread but the Sweden experience is useful in planning for future pandemics (how to protect the most vulnerable, which they didn't do a good job of in March/April and would need refinement, while keeping the economy rolling on the way to HI).

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-covid-herd-immunity-sweden-materialize.html

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5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

This quote says it all from your article (important to note that UK's death rate and case fatality rate is higher than Sweden):

Prof Goldsmith said: "We in the UK would do well to remember we nearly trod the same path as Sweden, as herd immunity was often discussed here in early March. Right now, despite strict (but tardy) lock-down in the UK, and the more measured Swedish response, both countries have seen high seven-day averaged COVID-19 death rates compared to other Scandinavian and European countries."

And if herd immunity isn't at least partially responsible for Sweden's current positivity rate (about 1% now), I'm open to hear an alternate explanation.

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2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Herd immunity is absolutely a thing

 

LOL. You're turning yourself into a joke. All you do is run around complaining that the media jumps to conclusions without proper fact gathering, and then you run around this board jumping to conclusions without proper fact gathering.

Settle down Beavis. Try to expand your horizons as a poster a bit. 

 

 

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