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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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50 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

there will be a mild 3rd wave.

I think there will be or at least a stall in the numbers decline. One our NP’s sent a pic from a monster truck rally in central texas outdoors but people packed like sardines. Probably about 10% masked and average BMI pushing 35.

Hopefully we will see hospitalizations and deaths drop and separate from case numbers.

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Another good day for Travis County yesterday with 97 cases, 23 admits and now 158 people hospitalized. We are firmly back in the early/mid November stages of cases/admits etc.

There were 23 deaths last week on Travis County which is still improving from where we were in Feb but up from the 13 we had  the week prior.

Deaths broke down in the following age groups: 40 to 49 (6), 50 to 59 (5), 60 to 69 (3), 70 to 79 (6), 80 + (3). This is not a normal distribution of deaths as typically 80+% of death in a given week are from 60+ age groups. It's one week, but will be something to monitor going forward.

The 6 deaths in the 40 to 49 group is roughly what they had for the prior 4 weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/20 vs 3/19 0 4 12 33 22 12 12 2 0 0 97
% of Daily Change 0.00% 4.12% 12.37% 34.02% 22.68% 12.37% 12.37% 2.06% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.61% 20.86% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.18%  
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Another low day for Travis County today with 85 cases. Still no cases in the <1 year old category since 3/14 (which is weird), really encouraging to see the 80+ age group slow dramatically as well with only 6 cases in last 7 days.

150 people hospitalized with only 17 admits today so still continued positive momentum there.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/20 vs 3/19 0 2 13 23 16 10 7 11 2 1 85
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.35% 15.29% 27.06% 18.82% 11.76% 8.24% 12.94% 2.35% 1.18%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.61% 20.86% 15.06% 11.42% 6.74% 3.29% 2.17%  
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115 cases today in Travis County. Big drop off in 60+ categories which is a good thing to see.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/22 vs 3/21 0 6 12 41 21 23 9 3 0 0 115
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.22% 10.43% 35.65% 18.26% 20.00% 7.83% 2.61% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.63% 20.86% 15.07% 11.41% 6.74% 3.29% 2.17%  
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Another good day for Travis County on what is typically a true up day, Travis County only has 64 cases today with 20 admits and 154 people in the hospital.

Over performance in the 70 to 79 age groupings but well under in the 60 to 69 & 80+ categories.

I would expect to start seeing the Spring Break bump over the next 7 days if it is going to happen.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/23 vs 3/22 0 4 5 11 12 11 10 2 8 1 64
% of Daily Change 0.00% 6.25% 7.81% 17.19% 18.75% 17.19% 15.63% 3.13% 12.50% 1.56%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.12% 25.62% 20.85% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.17%  
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11 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another good day for Travis County on what is typically a true up day, Travis County only has 64 cases today with 20 admits and 154 people in the hospital.

Over performance in the 70 to 79 age groupings but well under in the 60 to 69 & 80+ categories.

I would expect to start seeing the Spring Break bump over the next 7 days if it is going to happen.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/23 vs 3/22 0 4 5 11 12 11 10 2 8 1 64
% of Daily Change 0.00% 6.25% 7.81% 17.19% 18.75% 17.19% 15.63% 3.13% 12.50% 1.56%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.12% 25.62% 20.85% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.17%  

Positivity rate was roughly the same for last week as it was the previous week (4.4 vs 4.3), so that’s a sign that testing hasn’t gone down and the case drop is legit.  Still a little annoyed the hospitalizations haven’t dropped further but hopefully we start seeing some daily admits in the 10-15 range next week.

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45 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Positivity rate was roughly the same for last week as it was the previous week (4.4 vs 4.3), so that’s a sign that testing hasn’t gone down and the case drop is legit.  Still a little annoyed the hospitalizations haven’t dropped further but hopefully we start seeing some daily admits in the 10-15 range next week.

Cases are in a bit of a stall/plateau for the state as a whole just like you see in those hospitalizations in Austin. We probably decided "Covid is over" about a month too early but it's not that big of a deal. Saw a Nate Silver tweet yesterday talking about how Israel hit a two-week plateau at this same time, relative to vaccination percentage. You can see it in their graph for Early March. They stalled out a bit, then presumably got so much vaccine momentum that they broke through it. I expect we'll probably see the same thing in a week or two as we make our final approach into normal. Ding. Fasten seatbelts and chug your double beam and coke in the tiny glass.

 

(Israel Covid graph)

image.png.cfff342f2d6d1676c3c19cb7d2d11d88.png

Edited by BradInATX
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Well remember how the <1 group hadn't had any cases for 7-10 days? Welp it looks like Travis County had a big data true up. This is a two day run of cases as the age demo info was down Wednesday due to this true up I would guess.

(edit - you can see where cases have been trued up across the age demo, not sure if it was double counting or what but it sure gets annoying)

Ultimately cases overall yesterday were only 106 with 20 admits & 160 people hospitalized. I am a little concerned that hospitalizations have increased for 4 straight days.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/26 vs 3/24 37 19 233 193 -123 -18 -21 -68 -8 -14 230
% of Daily Change 16.09% 8.26% 101.30% 83.91% -53.48% -7.83% -9.13% -29.57% -3.48% -6.09%  
% of Total Cases 0.71% 4.85% 12.12% 30.08% 24.07% 17.50% 13.24% 7.73% 3.82% 2.50%  
Edited by BrazilHorn
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10-19 looks crazy.  Anecdotally, last confirmed COVID case notification I got from my daughters middle school was early February. There was a pretty steady cadence of notifications in Jan through early Feb.  No known cases of in school transmission, but a steady cadence.  That has disappeared. Have had a couple hits at my kid's elementary in early march, but they were also fairly silent since early Feb. Again, no in school transmission. 

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59 cases today in Travis County and only 12 admits (lowest since 10/31).

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/26 vs 3/25 0 5 7 19 14 3 5 5 1 0 59
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.47% 11.86% 32.20% 23.73% 5.08% 8.47% 8.47% 1.69% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.39% 25.80% 20.64% 15.00% 11.35% 6.63% 3.28% 2.14%  
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167 cases today (decent number for a Saturday), over served on the 20 to 29 group which is not a shocker as we are a week out from Spring Break.

Only 15 admits today and only 146 people hospitalized (lowest since 11/10)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/27 vs 3/26 1 6 26 55 34 20 14 5 4 2 167
% of Daily Change 0.60% 3.59% 15.57% 32.93% 20.36% 11.98% 8.38% 2.99% 2.40% 1.20%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.40% 25.81% 20.64% 14.99% 11.35% 6.62% 3.27% 2.14%  
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Wow! on one hand deaths this week were the lowest they have been since 11/28. Only 13 deaths. The crazy thing and this bucks all of the pandemic to date trends is the vast majority were under 60 years old.

30 to 39 (3) - This age cohort has typically gone weeks with no deaths and when a death occurs in all weeks save one (before this one) it has been only one death. This cohort went from 12 deaths total to 15.

40 to 49 (2) - Not unusual for a 1-2 death week here

50 to 59 (2) - This group tends to come in spurts (no pun intended but kind of intended)

60 to 69 (4)

70 to 79 (0) - It has been since October since this age group had zero deaths week over week

80+ (2) - This is a good week for the 80+ group compared to what they typically see.

If this type of week continues (low deaths overall, decent share <60) then it would be a good sign that the vaccine in the elderly (otherwise known as ArmyBrat) population is taking hold and preventing the worst outcomes.

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16 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Wow! on one hand deaths this week were the lowest they have been since 11/28. Only 13 deaths. The crazy thing and this bucks all of the pandemic to date trends is the vast majority were under 60 years old.

30 to 39 (3) - This age cohort has typically gone weeks with no deaths and when a death occurs in all weeks save one (before this one) it has been only one death. This cohort went from 12 deaths total to 15.

40 to 49 (2) - Not unusual for a 1-2 death week here

50 to 59 (2) - This group tends to come in spurts (no pun intended but kind of intended)

60 to 69 (4)

70 to 79 (0) - It has been since October since this age group had zero deaths week over week

80+ (2) - This is a good week for the 80+ group compared to what they typically see.

If this type of week continues (low deaths overall, decent share <60) then it would be a good sign that the vaccine in the elderly (otherwise known as ArmyBrat) population is taking hold and preventing the worst outcomes.

Could be the P1 variant from Brazil is here which is killing more younger Brazilians in their 30s. 

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Nice low day for Travis County with 79 cases & 15 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/28 vs 3/27 0 4 14 27 13 7 8 3 2 1 79
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.06% 17.72% 34.18% 16.46% 8.86% 10.13% 3.80% 2.53% 1.27%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.41% 25.82% 20.63% 14.98% 11.35% 6.62% 3.27% 2.14%  
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40 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Nice low day for Travis County with 79 cases & 15 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/28 vs 3/27 0 4 14 27 13 7 8 3 2 1 79
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.06% 17.72% 34.18% 16.46% 8.86% 10.13% 3.80% 2.53% 1.27%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.41% 25.82% 20.63% 14.98% 11.35% 6.62% 3.27% 2.14%  

Most new cases are age 10-40. That’s got to be abnormal right?

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6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Most new cases are age 10-40. That’s got to be abnormal right?

From a case perspective no. Cases have typically skewed younger and we are coming off Spring Break where folks in this demo were out in full force.

We may be seeing a tipping point though where a lot more folks >60 have been vaccinated and as such aren't going to be testing positive. Will be interesting to see.

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Most new cases are age 10-40. That’s got to be abnormal right?

That would have been abnormal for damn near the first year of this thing, but I have to believe that the olds getting vaccinated has skewed the numbers permanently.

Which should be looked at as tremendous news, IMO.

That 10-40 demographic getting the Covid shouldn’t drive hospitalizations and deaths, and maybe we can get back to “somewhat” normal in the near future. 

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That would have been abnormal for damn near the first year of this thing, but I have to believe that the olds getting vaccinated has skewed the numbers permanently.
Which should be looked at as tremendous news, IMO.
That 10-40 demographic getting the Covid shouldn’t drive hospitalizations and deaths, and maybe we can get back to “somewhat” normal in the near future. 

First thing we saw in Israel was olds not dying. About a month after they're out at concerts.

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1 hour ago, Kyle said:

Anyone able to access the data that quantifies the spike in cases and deaths since Gov. Abbott lifted the statewide mask mandate?

What major businesses have waived mask mandates?  my grocery store, the pool store, the liquor store, home depot etc.. are still requiring masks as i hit up all of those this weekend in Dallas.  Yes, we are 'open' but anecdotally, not much has changed for me.  kids are still required to wear one at school and they have not bitched about it one time this year despite doing this since Sept. 

the whole 'did masks do anything?' debate is just going to get further muddied in the public mind.  Oh well, worry about that later.  shit is looking up and and it's awesome to see the vax rolling in.  not going to debbie downer this shit. 

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1 hour ago, gyroprotagonist said:

What major businesses have waived mask mandates?  my grocery store, the pool store, the liquor store, home depot etc.. are still requiring masks as i hit up all of those this weekend in Dallas.  Yes, we are 'open' but anecdotally, not much has changed for me.  kids are still required to wear one at school and they have not bitched about it one time this year despite doing this since Sept. 

the whole 'did masks do anything?' debate is just going to get further muddied in the public mind.  Oh well, worry about that later.  shit is looking up and and it's awesome to see the vax rolling in.  not going to debbie downer this shit. 

So what I hear you say is maybe some of the histrionics over Abbott's lifting of the statewide mask mandate was mere political theater?

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Well here in East Texas the fucking idiots have won.  The school district that my wife teaches at and my daughter attends are lifting the mask mandate as of April 1st.  We shall see if my wife keeps her job after the email that I sent to the board asking for their qualifications to make such a decision and to show me what "local health experts" determined that this was a good idea.  I mean they just can't wait until the end of the year to allow those who want to get the vaccine the option to do so.  I am glad that I got my wife in the first day teachers were allowed so at least she has some immunity.  Her second shot is Thursday.  My daughter is getting her first shot today.  

I can't imagine the peer pressure that the kids who want to wear a mask are going to feel during this time.  What a great fucking learning environment.   If my wife of daughter gets seriously ill due to these dumb fucks I will end up in jail for beating the shit out of there dumb asses.  

Fuck all of the Trump ass idiots.  His pussy ass at least got the vaccine.  

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36 minutes ago, Kyle said:

So what I hear you say is maybe some of the histrionics over Abbott's lifting of the statewide mask mandate was mere political theater?

your ears are full of shit if that is what you are hearing from my post.  there is no CR in my post at all, why invoke political BS here?  abbott was too much of a pussy to handle the negative feels he got from the mah freedom crowd so he dumped that shit onto the shoulders of the Texas businesses.  What a fucking hero he is.  smh.  but at least we are not talking about how he and his appointees fucked up the power grid much anymore or the push to take away employees rights to sue over C19 protocols their employer takes (or doesn't take).

All i said was that in Dallas, not much seems to have changed despite the order.  In other parts of Texas I am sure it's different.  I am curious if any large retailers are saying no mask needed, come on in.  There are a few places in Dallas like Eatily (sp?) that don't require masks.  Some hate it, some like it.  it's a restaurant so in-room dining has little to do with wearing a mask anyway.  eat inside or don't, who GAF?

 

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5 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

your ears are full of shit if that is what you are hearing from my post.  there is no CR in my post at all, why invoke political BS here?  abbott was too much of a pussy to handle the negative feels he got from the mah freedom crowd so he dumped that shit onto the shoulders of the Texas businesses.  What a fucking hero he is.  smh.  but at least we are not talking about how he and his appointees fucked up the power grid much anymore or the push to take away employees rights to sue over C19 protocols their employer takes (or doesn't take).

All i said was that in Dallas, not much seems to have changed despite the order.  In other parts of Texas I am sure it's different.  I am curious if any large retailers are saying no mask needed, come on in.  There are a few places in Dallas like Eatily (sp?) that don't require masks.  Some hate it, some like it.  it's a restaurant so in-room dining has little to do with wearing a mask anyway.  eat inside or don't, who GAF?

Put me in the category of anxiously awaiting what happens for GAF topics.

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Only 87 cases on Monday for Travis County with 19 admits (4 days in a row <20). 149 people hospitalized (3 straight days <150).

Cases skewing a bit towards younger end which based on vaccination numbers amongst the olds is not a shock and it's preferable to a heavier load in the 60+ groups.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/29 vs 3/28 1 5 8 25 24 13 6 5 -1 1 87
% of Daily Change 1.15% 5.75% 9.20% 28.74% 27.59% 14.94% 6.90% 5.75% -1.15% 1.15%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.41% 25.82% 20.64% 14.98% 11.34% 6.62% 3.27% 2.14%  
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On 3/29/2021 at 2:29 PM, Buzzrock said:

Newsweek: Texas COVID cases drop to record low nearly three weeks after mask mandate lifted

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-covid-cases-drop-record-low-nearly-three-weeks-after-mask-mandate-lifted-1579484
 

Sorry to rant and threadjack, but I hate it when people cite Newsweek-right or wrong.  Since its last period as a legitimate source about a decade ago, it has been owned by a charismatic cult, raided by the Manhattan DA's office, and is currently owned by a clickbait factory based out of Bangalore.  It's a shell trading on it's once-great name.

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A fucking great day in Travis County (on a Tuesday trueup day no less)

91 cases, 15 admits and 141 people hospitalized. We are back 5 months in terms of hospitalizations and seem to have this shit more and more under control.

If you have not been vaccinated, get yours.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/30 vs 3/29 0 3 6 38 18 9 11 4 1 1 91
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.30% 6.59% 41.76% 19.78% 9.89% 12.09% 4.40% 1.10% 1.10%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.16% 10.40% 25.84% 20.64% 14.98% 11.34% 6.62% 3.27% 2.14%  
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On 3/29/2021 at 12:19 PM, gyroprotagonist said:

What major businesses have waived mask mandates?  my grocery store, the pool store, the liquor store, home depot etc.. are still requiring masks as i hit up all of those this weekend in Dallas.  Yes, we are 'open' but anecdotally, not much has changed for me.  kids are still required to wear one at school and they have not bitched about it one time this year despite doing this since Sept. 

the whole 'did masks do anything?' debate is just going to get further muddied in the public mind.  Oh well, worry about that later.  shit is looking up and and it's awesome to see the vax rolling in.  not going to debbie downer this shit. 

I'd say travel about 30 miles each direction and your experience would be much different. I know it is in NE Texas for me.

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On 3/29/2021 at 2:29 PM, Buzzrock said:

Newsweek: Texas COVID cases drop to record low nearly three weeks after mask mandate lifted

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-covid-cases-drop-record-low-nearly-three-weeks-after-mask-mandate-lifted-1579484
 

no wai!  actually I predict there will be another rise in cases soon for 6 weeks or so. every other major virus outbreak this century has had a 3rd wave. hopefully muted if the vax is doing it's job and hospitalizations/deaths stay flat to down.

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132 cases in Travis County today with 26 admits. Hair more cases than last wednesday with a hair fewer admits. Third of all cases in the 20 to 29 range.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/31 vs 3/30 0 0 17 46 31 9 13 13 2 1 132
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 12.88% 34.85% 23.48% 6.82% 9.85% 9.85% 1.52% 0.76%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.15% 10.41% 25.86% 20.65% 14.96% 11.34% 6.62% 3.26% 2.14%  
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22 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

132 cases in Travis County today with 26 admits. Hair more cases than last wednesday with a hair fewer admits. Third of all cases in the 20 to 29 range.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/31 vs 3/30 0 0 17 46 31 9 13 13 2 1 132
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 12.88% 34.85% 23.48% 6.82% 9.85% 9.85% 1.52% 0.76%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.15% 10.41% 25.86% 20.65% 14.96% 11.34% 6.62% 3.26% 2.14%  

Season 5 Episode 20 GIF by ABC Network

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56 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

132 cases in Travis County today with 26 admits. Hair more cases than last wednesday with a hair fewer admits. Third of all cases in the 20 to 29 range.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/31 vs 3/30 0 0 17 46 31 9 13 13 2 1 132
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 12.88% 34.85% 23.48% 6.82% 9.85% 9.85% 1.52% 0.76%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.15% 10.41% 25.86% 20.65% 14.96% 11.34% 6.62% 3.26% 2.14%  

I’m curious if the admits are trending younger. 

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