April 5, 20241 yr 15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said: Every single Congressman knows if they are the ones to usher in some austerity/balance the budget, they will never be re-elected. And the American public is too stupid to see any further than their next paycheck. This is an artifact and echo of the American business system writ large. Don't worry about long term consequences, short term is all you can see so it's all that exists. 15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said: There is only 1 solution. Congressional budget limits must be set by an independent committee, IE the fed. Congress can spend it however they wish but the Fed tells them what the limit is per year. That's a major constitutional amendment my dude. Congress has the power of the purse. The real problem is that Congress's actions no longer align with the wishes of the people, but rather the wishes of their donors and so people's wishes and consent don't really have much impact on spending anymore
April 5, 20241 yr 20 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said: This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.) But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going. When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP? Average age of senators and congressfolk is literally 60+. Theyre ignant as shit on economics and have no personal risk pegged to Tomorrows Problem, which the consequence of runaway debt is. They’ll be retired, fat, and sufficiently wealthy. On a digression, if anyones been tracking metals lately, silver and gold has been on a tear
April 5, 20241 yr I think it also drives me nuts because interest is just wasted opportunity. Think of what positive things we could do with that money. A trillion fucking dollars a year?
April 5, 20241 yr Military spending is the only place where massive cuts can occur and quickly, but Congress (via lobbies) spread its tentacles across pretty much every district so that no one would ever be for it. Our military spending is 40% of the worlds total, 3 times China and more than the next 10 countries combined. It's going to take something dramatic to change that I'm afraid.
April 6, 20241 yr All that spending and we can’t stop cyber attacks, social media election subversion, Havana syndrome, or fentanyl. Bummer.
April 6, 20241 yr 11 hours ago, tbone_ said: All that spending and we can’t stop cyber attacks, social media election subversion, Havana syndrome, or fentanyl. Or Nickelback.
April 6, 20241 yr Perversely they need the military to protect the value of the dollar that they need to cheaply raise more of to pay for the dollars they already raised Cuz if theres some pirates fucking about blocking trade and commerce (thats conducted in $) you know the Armada is coming out 🛥️ 🦅
April 6, 20241 yr I feel like Nickelback pretty much got crowd source banned. Was there a thread on it,lulz.
April 10, 20241 yr CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep} Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts
April 12, 20241 yr On 4/10/2024 at 11:36 AM, Wally Fairway said: CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep} Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts Intra-day rollercoaster is dizzying, I need to back away from looking & thinking I should do something. And yet that isn't a comfortable feeling either. Fuck me
April 15, 20241 yr SPY & BRK.B are both down about $20 since the early Aprils highs (4% and 5% roughly) - so I ask the Surly gurus, is this a buying opportunity, or a harbinger for where we are headed this summer into (or past) the election? Obviously asking for a friend who wants to know if it is time to buy some calls, or some puts? a little bit of both is not a credible response and you will be ignored or laughed at)
April 15, 20241 yr I think there is more downside in the next 6 months as the market comes to accept there won’t be rate cuts this year. But that’s just one Surly asshole’s opinion.
April 17, 20241 yr On 4/15/2024 at 5:39 PM, Incredulity said: I think there is more downside in the next 6 months as the market comes to accept there won’t be rate cuts this year. But that’s just one Surly asshole’s opinion. Full disclosure time - likely no more downside to due to the Reverse-Wally market impact Sold 10% of my SPY today, and bought some SPY puts with expiration from 5/1/24 - 1/17/25 and strikes from $500 down to $450 Act accordingly past performance is not a guarantee of future results....blah, blah, blah
April 17, 20241 yr 6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said: likely no more downside to due to the Reverse-Wally market impact
April 18, 20241 yr so sell and take my 24 hour loss, or average down on my cost? sit and hold could be best, but it is a boring way to lose money...
April 19, 20241 yr I've been looking at LAC as a lottery ticket. They raised new money today. Based on the shares issued, their overall valuation is basically unchanged.
April 19, 20241 yr Market isn't gonna like Israel bombing Iran tonight. Edited April 19, 20241 yr by UTGrad98 Phone autocorrect
April 19, 20241 yr Futures down across the board. Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it. Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while. Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
April 19, 20241 yr 6 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said: Futures down across the board. Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it. Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while. Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024. Where do I send my $9.95/month?
April 19, 20241 yr 39 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said: so are we really not going to get to any rate cut this year?
April 19, 20241 yr escalating ware in the MIddle East continuing war in Ukraine funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa) political uncertainty in the US Market impact
April 19, 20241 yr 9 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said: Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024. I have no idea if you are right or wrong. There is plenty to be concerned about. I would add- Commercial RE is a sarlac pit of dread, March home starts were in the shitter, second order effects of inflation are starting to hit(insurance), commodities are rising,.... counterpoints- markets usually do well in election years, the government can't afford the increased rates to finance its debt so rate cuts seem inevitable.
April 19, 20241 yr I actually see the inflation problem getting solved in 8-12 months, which will lead to lower rates. Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down.
April 19, 20241 yr 42 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said: Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down. Unless the credit card companies just keep raising the credit limits. I already don't know how they expect to get paid back so why not?
April 21, 20241 yr Why spend 100k on student loans when you can crowdsource a Waymo that will drive people around all day and make money while you go to day parties at the pool and get coked up. AI is a savior, but the software update will cost you 499.95.
April 21, 20241 yr On 4/19/2024 at 8:55 AM, Wally Fairway said: escalating ware in the MIddle East continuing war in Ukraine funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa) political uncertainty in the US Market impact Counterpoint: Wally puts
April 22, 20241 yr On 4/20/2024 at 10:16 PM, Redneck Mutha said: Counterpoint: Wally puts point well taken y'all can thank me now
April 25, 20241 yr Markets dont seem to like stagflation. Volcker the rate up to 6% and lets get it over with. Id rather have a rate shock and 2-3 quarters of a recession to reset everything than whatever this is.
April 25, 20241 yr 5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said: Volcker the rate up to 6% If we are in stagflation another 1% is a fart in a stiff breeze.
April 25, 20241 yr Just now, Rip76 said: Why is the Dow -700 today? Someone lob a missle? Traveling at the moment. Wasn't me - I didn't buy or sell anything, not stocks, not ETF/funds, not puts, not calls, not a damn thing
April 25, 20241 yr 3 minutes ago, Rip76 said: Why is the Dow -700 today? Someone lob a missle? Traveling at the moment. GDP lower than expectations Inflation higher than expectations Today, bad news is bad news I guess.
April 25, 20241 yr Driven down by META earnings. It's fucking stupid. They beat expectations. Said hey we gotta spend a lot of money to build this AI thing so it can make us a lot of money. Investors freak out and dumped. Fucking 12K haircut on that news
April 25, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, FartingMonk said: Fucking 12K haircut on that news Only if you transact at that price - just sayin'
April 25, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, FartingMonk said: Driven down by META earnings. It's fucking stupid. They beat expectations. Said hey we gotta spend a lot of money to build this AI thing so it can make us a lot of money. Investors freak out and dumped. Fucking 12K haircut on that news Get ready for when the music stops with TSLA. They are playing some fuck fuck games with their accounting
April 25, 20241 yr 1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said: Only if you transact at that price - just sayin' Yeah. It's all RSUs anyways. Free money
April 25, 20241 yr 3 hours ago, Captainant said: Get ready for when the music stops with TSLA. They are playing some fuck fuck games with their accounting So is the FED and other departments. But I’ve told people for years TSLA will go bankrupt, or bankrupt portfolios.
April 25, 20241 yr Only if you transact at that price - just sayin'I don’t agree with this oft used argument.Value is value.
April 26, 20241 yr Markets are fucked today The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just moved in the wrong direction https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/26/economy/pce-inflation-spending-march
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