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Markets still falling like whoa


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36 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What's the need to cut?

 

I agree there isn't a economic reason to cut currently.  However, I've been consistently saying the fed is going to have to cut.  We have way, way, way too much debt rolling over to higher rates.  it will keep getting worse.

image.png.77017995e87c34590d745ffe27c991f7.png

 

credit to @TexasHammer

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1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

 

I agree there isn't a economic reason to cut currently.  However, I've been consistently saying the fed is going to have to cut.  We have way, way, way too much debt rolling over to higher rates.  it will keep getting worse.

image.png.77017995e87c34590d745ffe27c991f7.png

 

credit to @TexasHammer

This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.)

But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going.

When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP?

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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.)

But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going.

When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP?

Every single Congressman knows if they are the ones to usher in some austerity/balance the budget, they will never be re-elected. And the American public is too stupid to see any further than their next paycheck. 

There is only 1 solution. Congressional budget limits must be set by an independent committee, IE the fed. Congress can spend it however they wish but the Fed tells them what the limit is per year.

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2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.)

But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going.

When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP?

Be ready to super rage.   Our debt doesn’t get paid down.  Our “debt payments” are only interest payments.  The principal rolls over

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15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Every single Congressman knows if they are the ones to usher in some austerity/balance the budget, they will never be re-elected. And the American public is too stupid to see any further than their next paycheck. 

This is an artifact and echo of the American business system writ large. Don't worry about long term consequences, short term is all you can see so it's all that exists.

15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

There is only 1 solution. Congressional budget limits must be set by an independent committee, IE the fed. Congress can spend it however they wish but the Fed tells them what the limit is per year.

That's a major constitutional amendment my dude. Congress has the power of the purse. The real problem is that Congress's actions no longer align with the wishes of the people, but rather the wishes of their donors and so people's wishes and consent don't really have much impact on spending anymore 

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20 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.)

But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going.

When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP?

Average age of senators and congressfolk is literally 60+. Theyre ignant as shit on economics and have no personal risk pegged to Tomorrows Problem, which the consequence of runaway debt is.  They’ll be retired, fat, and sufficiently wealthy. 

On a digression, if anyones been tracking metals lately, silver and gold has been on a tear

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I think it also drives me nuts because interest is just wasted opportunity. Think of what positive things we could do with that money. A trillion fucking dollars a year? 

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Military spending is the only place where massive cuts can occur and quickly, but Congress (via lobbies) spread its tentacles across pretty much every district so that no one would ever be for it. Our military spending is 40% of the worlds total, 3 times China and more than the next 10 countries combined.  It's going to take something dramatic to change that I'm afraid.

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Perversely they need the military to protect the value of the dollar that they need to cheaply raise more of to pay for the dollars they already raised

Cuz if theres some pirates fucking about blocking trade and commerce (thats conducted in $) you know the Armada is coming out 🛥️ 🦅 

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CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep}
Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. 
On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing

Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts

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On 4/10/2024 at 11:36 AM, Wally Fairway said:

CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep}
Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. 
On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing

Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts 

Intra-day rollercoaster is dizzying, I need to back away from looking & thinking I should do something. And yet that isn't a comfortable feeling either.  Fuck me

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SPY & BRK.B are both down about $20 since the early Aprils highs (4% and 5% roughly) - so I ask the Surly gurus, is this a buying opportunity, or a harbinger for where we are headed this summer into (or past) the election?
Obviously asking for a friend who wants to know if it is time to buy some calls, or some puts?
a little bit of both is not a credible response and you will be ignored or laughed at)

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On 4/15/2024 at 5:39 PM, Incredulity said:

I think there is more downside in the next 6 months as the market comes to accept there won’t be rate cuts this year.  But that’s just one Surly asshole’s opinion.

 

 

Full disclosure time - likely no more downside to due to the Reverse-Wally market impact

Sold 10% of my SPY today, and bought some SPY puts with expiration from 5/1/24 - 1/17/25 and strikes from $500 down to $450
Act accordingly
past performance is not a guarantee of future results....blah, blah, blah

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Futures down across the board.

Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it.

Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. 

Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. 

Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while.

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
 

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6 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Futures down across the board.

Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it.

Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. 

Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. 

Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while.

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
 

Where do I send my $9.95/month?

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escalating ware in the MIddle East
continuing war in Ukraine
funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts
China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa)
political uncertainty in the US
 

Market impact
image.png.b0527aea8100a55d4deb61cf847f24b5.png

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9 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong.  There is plenty to be concerned about.  I would add- Commercial RE is a sarlac pit of dread, March home starts were in the shitter,  second order effects of inflation are starting to hit(insurance), commodities are rising,....

 

counterpoints- markets usually do well in election years, the government can't afford the increased rates to finance its debt so rate cuts seem inevitable.

 

 

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I actually see the inflation problem getting solved in 8-12 months, which will lead to lower rates.
 

Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down.

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42 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down.

Unless the credit card companies just keep raising the credit limits.  I already don't know how they expect to get paid back so why not?

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On 4/19/2024 at 8:55 AM, Wally Fairway said:

escalating ware in the MIddle East
continuing war in Ukraine
funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts
China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa)
political uncertainty in the US
 

Market impact
image.png.b0527aea8100a55d4deb61cf847f24b5.png

Counterpoint:  Wally puts

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1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Driven down by META earnings.  It's fucking stupid.  They beat expectations.  Said hey we gotta spend a lot of money to build this AI thing so it can make us a lot of money.  Investors freak out and dumped.  Fucking 12K haircut on that news 

Get ready for when the music stops with TSLA. They are playing some fuck fuck games with their accounting 

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