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2021 College World Series Thread


TrashMaster G

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All the complaints about MLB being a 3 true outcome league are true and it makes the game less fun. I’m a season ticket holder (split with 3 other dudes) so I love the game, but part of that is as an Astros fan they have the highest context percentage in the game so it’s not a full on whiff fest every day. 
What they are doing with outlawing substances  hopefully returns some balance to the game. If it doesn’t I’d like to see them rethink 60’6” to make the product more compelling. 
if you think they are employing the wrong strategy though you are wrong. They are smarter than you, me or anyone else. 
The problem becomes at the highest level the game becomes more alike because everyone has to play best strategy because you can’t give away 2 or 3%. This is why sacrifice hunting has almost disappeared. This is why everyone tries to hit over the shift. This is why stolen bases and hit and runs have plummeted. 

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Do you go by Tom Herman’s 4th down chart every time or do you go with the flow of the game?

What if the pitcher implodes with runners on? What about getting a runner on 2nd with no outs and a left hander up next? What if it’s 0-0 and you win 85% of the time when scoring first?

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All the complaints about MLB being a 3 true outcome league are true and it makes the game less fun. I’m a season ticket holder (split with 3 other dudes) so I love the game, but part of that is as an Astros fan they have the highest context percentage in the game so it’s not a full on whiff fest every day. 
What they are doing with outlawing substances  hopefully returns some balance to the game. If it doesn’t I’d like to see them rethink 60’6” to make the product more compelling. 
if you think they are employing the wrong strategy though you are wrong. They are smarter than you, me or anyone else. 
The problem becomes at the highest level the game becomes more alike because everyone has to play best strategy because you can’t give away 2 or 3%. This is why sacrifice hunting has almost disappeared. This is why everyone tries to hit over the shift. This is why stolen bases and hit and runs have plummeted. 

You seem bummed out about not getting to go on your "The Most Dangerous Game" trip this year. 

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All the complaints about MLB being a 3 true outcome league are true and it makes the game less fun. I’m a season ticket holder (split with 3 other dudes) so I love the game, but part of that is as an Astros fan they have the highest context percentage in the game so it’s not a full on whiff fest every day. 
What they are doing with outlawing substances  hopefully returns some balance to the game. If it doesn’t I’d like to see them rethink 60’6” to make the product more compelling. 
if you think they are employing the wrong strategy though you are wrong. They are smarter than you, me or anyone else. 
The problem becomes at the highest level the game becomes more alike because everyone has to play best strategy because you can’t give away 2 or 3%. This is why sacrifice hunting has almost disappeared. This is why everyone tries to hit over the shift. This is why stolen bases and hit and runs have plummeted. 

that double bunt proves me right.  get the base runner then go for a 2 shot not a solo.  and if I'm wrong, so be it.  they've ruined the sport.  but I don't think I'm wrong and if the offense decides to adapt to the gaping holes from time to time, you'll pull the defense back some and then you have more room for "error" when you swing for the fences.  again, I don't care if they are right, you think they are right, I'm completely wrong and stupid about it.  the game is broken at that level and this insane shifting and trying to hit over the shift (i.e a HR) only makes it worse.  it's unwatchable.

Edited by troph
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20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All the complaints about MLB being a 3 true outcome league are true and it makes the game less fun. I’m a season ticket holder (split with 3 other dudes) so I love the game, but part of that is as an Astros fan they have the highest context percentage in the game so it’s not a full on whiff fest every day. 
What they are doing with outlawing substances  hopefully returns some balance to the game. If it doesn’t I’d like to see them rethink 60’6” to make the product more compelling. 
if you think they are employing the wrong strategy though you are wrong. They are smarter than you, me or anyone else. 
The problem becomes at the highest level the game becomes more alike because everyone has to play best strategy because you can’t give away 2 or 3%. This is why sacrifice hunting has almost disappeared. This is why everyone tries to hit over the shift. This is why stolen bases and hit and runs have plummeted. 

If you're talking about just winning games, correct.  If you're talking drawing eyes, you are not.  Eyes are leaving them and that does not put them in the "smarter than you" category.  Quite the opposite, actually.

42 million people watched the World Series in 1980.  By 1990 it was 30 million people.  By 2000 it was 18 million.  2010 was down to 14 million.  2020? 13 million.

Ooph.

Edited by Cajun
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23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All the complaints about MLB being a 3 true outcome league are true and it makes the game less fun. I’m a season ticket holder (split with 3 other dudes) so I love the game, but part of that is as an Astros fan they have the highest context percentage in the game so it’s not a full on whiff fest every day. 
What they are doing with outlawing substances  hopefully returns some balance to the game. If it doesn’t I’d like to see them rethink 60’6” to make the product more compelling. 
if you think they are employing the wrong strategy though you are wrong. They are smarter than you, me or anyone else. 
The problem becomes at the highest level the game becomes more alike because everyone has to play best strategy because you can’t give away 2 or 3%. This is why sacrifice hunting has almost disappeared. This is why everyone tries to hit over the shift. This is why stolen bases and hit and runs have plummeted. 

I don't mind going to a MLB ballpark and watching in person, but that is all about the experience and not the game.  Especially dropping in to Wrigley or Fenway on a midsummer's day, I really enjoy that.

But on TV, the product is completely unwatchable.

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21 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

Do you go by Tom Herman’s 4th down chart every time or do you go with the flow of the game?

What if the pitcher implodes with runners on? What about getting a runner on 2nd with no outs and a left hander up next? What if it’s 0-0 and you win 85% of the time when scoring first?

You go with the chart. You just don’t call the dumbest play ever. 
You can hit on 18 in blackjack and win.  But if you don’t play optimal strategy you will lose, unless you have a significant talent advantage. That happens in college baseball. It doesn’t really exist in pro baseball. 
I’m not arguing pro baseball is a better game. I like them both. I’m just saying if you think the pros are not engaged in optimal strategy you are incorrect. 

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18 minutes ago, troph said:

that double bunt proves me right.  get the base runner then go for a 2 shot not a solo.  and if I'm wrong, so be it.  they've ruined the sport.  but I don't think I'm wrong and if the offense decides to adapt to the gaping holes from time to time, you'll pull the defense back some and then you have more room for "error" when you swing for the fences.  again, I don't care if they are right, you think they are right, I'm completely wrong and stupid about it.  the game is broken at that level and this insane shifting and trying to hit over the shift (i.e a HR) only makes it worse.  it's unwatchable.

I never said you are stupid. You said you haven’t watched in 10 years and I was telling you what has happened to game play in MLB- that’s it. 
They have numbers for all this stuff/ there doesn’t need to be conjecture or guessing. The  OPS and run expectancy is lower for bunting than hitting. 
I think what gets lost with the “just bunt and take a free base crowd” is that the pitching is so nasty bunting is hard. The MLB game has gotten out of balance without a doubt. That’s why close your eyes and swing as hard as you can has become optimal strategy. That’s not fun. They are trying to do something about it. We will see if this crackdown on substances stops the insane spin rates and brings that balance back. 

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19 minutes ago, Cajun said:

If you're talking about just winning games, correct.  If you're talking drawing eyes, you are not.  Eyes are leaving them and that does not put them in the "smarter than you" category.  Quite the opposite, actually.

42 million people watched the World Series in 1980.  By 1990 it was 30 million people.  By 2000 it was 18 million.  2010 was down to 14 million.  2020? 13 million.

Ooph.

I thought it was beyond obvious I was talking about winning games. Basic strategic decision is to win games for a GM. It’s the league offices job to take care of the macro.

they hear you (and me) and agree. They are experimenting with all sorts of rules changes in the minors. Pitching clocks, banning the shift, they’ve already cut down in substances- all that stuff is real. 
but that doesn’t mean any GM will engage in sub optimal strategy for the good of the game. That needs to be a league edict. 
I loved 80’s baseball. Thumpers hit 40 HR, rabbits stole 80 or 100 bases- some teams crushed and some teams fielding. Not everyone threw 100 mph, and there was all sorts of different strategies. 
I’d welcome anything that could bring that back. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I thought it was beyond obvious I was talking about winning games. Basic strategic decision is to win games for a GM. It’s the league offices job to take care of the macro.

they hear you (and me) and agree. They are experimenting with all sorts of rules changes in the minors. Pitching clocks, banning the shift, they’ve already cut down in substances- all that stuff is real. 
but that doesn’t mean any GM will engage in sub optimal strategy for the good of the game. That needs to be a league edict. 

I think there is a way to win taking advantage of the shift, that's what I'm saying.  I'm sure I'm a simpleton but I'd take a free guaranteed double every time.

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Just now, troph said:

I think there is a way to win taking advantage of the shift, that's what I'm saying.  I'm sure I'm a simpleton but I'd take a free guaranteed double every time.

It’s not a free guaranteed double in the point. This has played out 100’s of times. The numbers are what they are. You can believe in them or not believe in them. It doesn’t make you dumb or a simpleton or anything like that. It’s just do you choose to put belief in large amount of data that’s been collected or not? 
If you had someone with great bat skills and ability to hunt then yes- optimal strategy would be to bunt. 
but- the other team knows this and they don’t shift against those guys they shift against the bigger hitters.  Those guys don’t practice bunting. 
And again- I agree with you that this new baseball isn’t aesthetically pleasing!  It’s just someone has already run the numbers and it’s correct strategy. 
Like hack a shaq for a sub 50% FT shooter which makes the game much worse but is good strategy. Or maybe you could say the NFL throwing the ball 80+% of the time. 
mot all the 3’s in the NBA. 

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25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I thought it was beyond obvious I was talking about winning games. Basic strategic decision is to win games for a GM. It’s the league offices job to take care of the macro.

they hear you (and me) and agree. They are experimenting with all sorts of rules changes in the minors. Pitching clocks, banning the shift, they’ve already cut down in substances- all that stuff is real. 
but that doesn’t mean any GM will engage in sub optimal strategy for the good of the game. That needs to be a league edict. 
I loved 80’s baseball. Thumpers hit 40 HR, rabbits stole 80 or 100 bases- some teams crushed and some teams fielding. Not everyone threw 100 mph, and there was all sorts of different strategies. 
I’d welcome anything that could bring that back. 

It was and I wasn't trying to sharp shoot you.  Sorry for coming across that way.  In the end we both agree.  The guys in the "factory" are just doing what ever it takes to make the sausage.  To put out more units, whatever it takes.  That's their job.

Problem is the sausage is pure crap.  Nothing but filler and preservatives.  Inedible.

 

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I loved 80’s baseball. Thumpers hit 40 HR, rabbits stole 80 or 100 bases- some teams crushed and some teams fielding. Not everyone threw 100 mph, and there was all sorts of different strategies. 
I’d welcome anything that could bring that back. 

And, btw, that is EXACTLY where I am.  Perfectly put.

Get back to that and you've got my eyes.  100%

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20 minutes ago, Cajun said:

And, btw, that is EXACTLY where I am.  Perfectly put.

Get back to that and you've got my eyes.  100%

What happens with any game that doesn’t change itself up every now and the. Is it gets “solved” and e drying starts to play the same way. 
gorilla ball in college sucked and they had to change the bats. Better product. 
NBA started having nonstop rock fights in the 70’s and 80’s PPG and nobody wanted that shut so they changed the rules. 
NFL opened up rules for passing to make things more interesting 

Everything needs to change or it gets stale. Stale is boring. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not a free guaranteed double in the point. This has played out 100’s of times. The numbers are what they are. You can believe in them or not believe in them. It doesn’t make you dumb or a simpleton or anything like that. It’s just do you choose to put belief in large amount of data that’s been collected or not? 
If you had someone with great bat skills and ability to hunt then yes- optimal strategy would be to bunt. 
but- the other team knows this and they don’t shift against those guys they shift against the bigger hitters.  Those guys don’t practice bunting. 
And again- I agree with you that this new baseball isn’t aesthetically pleasing!  It’s just someone has already run the numbers and it’s correct strategy. 
Like hack a shaq for a sub 50% FT shooter which makes the game much worse but is good strategy. Or maybe you could say the NFL throwing the ball 80+% of the time. 
mot all the 3’s in the NBA. 

that's probably all true.  so I don't think the rules should necessarily change, I think the hitters should adapt.  I truly believe that.  you can hit the HR but if the defense only respects your power swing, get in the cages and be a better baseball player and move that defense back and then mix it up and swing for power or if they shift take the double - and yes - a real baseball player that's a guaranteed double (at least 70% of the time ha).  if they stop shifting then great you have an even better chance for a base hit when you swing for power but don't hit the HR - gap doubles (or singles), etc.  on the face of it the numbers may show it's the right move, but it is an outcome of the players not learning the sport, they aren't baseball players, they are homerun hitters.  well that's not what I want to see.   so the numbers maybe right, but what they are right about is the game is broken and it's not baseball anymore, that shifting shows exactly what it is, a HR derby.  no thanks.

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I get the complaints about the shift, but on the other hand, if you're facing a dead pull hitter, it's kind of insane to think you'd just let him keep driving liners between the traditional 1B and 2B spots for his entire career and not do something to adjust. 

Eventually hitters will adjust, there will be more value for spray hitters. Everything balances out eventually, it just doesn't happen overnight. 

The thing I see this year that I still can't wrap my head around is guys who are batting sub .200 slotted in the leadoff spot. I am sure there's some analytical theory for this, but it's hard for me to make any sense of it. 

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11 minutes ago, TornACL said:

I get the complaints about the shift, but on the other hand, if you're facing a dead pull hitter, it's kind of insane to think you'd just let him keep driving liners between the traditional 1B and 2B spots for his entire career and not do something to adjust. 

Eventually hitters will adjust, there will be more value for spray hitters. Everything balances out eventually, it just doesn't happen overnight. 

The thing I see this year that I still can't wrap my head around is guys who are batting sub .200 slotted in the leadoff spot. I am sure there's some analytical theory for this, but it's hard for me to make any sense of it. 

I can actually see why you shift, but the one in that bunt had six players from the right field foul line to the fence to center and down to second across the infield/outfield grass line.  there was only one player on the entire left side of the field.  shifting the right fielder down the center fielder over some makes sense in some instances.  I just can't wrap my head around 6 guys in one quadrant of the field leaving a tee-ball double there for the taking.  it's out of balance that's all I'm saying.  but I'm repeating myself and I'm probably wrong, I'll admit that.  It's just maddening.

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15 minutes ago, troph said:

I can actually see why you shift, but the one in that bunt had six players from the right field foul line to the fence to center and down to second across the infield/outfield grass line.  there was only one player on the entire left side of the field.  shifting the right fielder down the center fielder over some makes sense in some instances.  I just can't wrap my head around 6 guys in one quadrant of the field leaving a tee-ball double there for the taking.  it's out of balance that's all I'm saying.  but I'm repeating myself and I'm probably wrong, I'll admit that.  It's just maddening.

Analytics in college are more in favor of all the things you are talking about (stealing, bunts, spraying the ball around) which Is what makes it a much more diverse game. 
some people appreciate greater diversity at a lower ability level, and some want the highest of skill level. It’s an individual preference. MLB agreed with you though, thus all the experimentation on the minors with changing stuff up.

I want robot umps at all home plate levels and I want average strikeout level of 15% or less. Whatever it takes to get there will make me happy. 

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15 minutes ago, troph said:

same issue on the steal - antico wreaks havoc on the pitcher and the defense with that threat. analytics may say don't do it I get it but who here thinks Antico should stop running?  not me.

Yeah, I get the math behind not trying to swipe bases as much these days.  And I'm sure there's even deeper analysis about what kinda pitch effectiveness comes after multiple pickoff attempts or an actual stolen base; and then on top of that what the next hitter does after a caught stealing or successful steal attempt...not just hitting now with RISP, but how it changes pitch selection.........but I think there's a still a few things in the game Bill James can't capture.  Stealing a base just fucking fires up your dugout.  And if the catcher guns him down...it fires up the pitcher who can go back to the windup and not worry about the stretch.  And then there's the strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play...I don't know what sabremetrics says about that but teams lose their shit over that and play harder for a few more minutes. 

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Analytics in college are more in favor of all the things you are talking about (stealing, bunts, spraying the ball around) which Is what makes it a much more diverse game. 
some people appreciate greater diversity at a lower ability level, and some want the highest of skill level. It’s an individual preference. MLB agreed with you though, thus all the experimentation on the minors with changing stuff up.

I want robot umps at all home plate levels and I want average strikeout level of 15% or less. Whatever it takes to get there will make me happy. 

well I've already imo stated college ball is the perfect brand of baseball as it is right now.  enough amateur to make crazy comebacks possible, makes the insane double plays and catches against the wall that much more spectacular and provides a diverse game experience with the passion and the calmness that made or makes baseball arguably the greatest sport.  the hidden drama, the hidden strategies, while all on the surface the game seems calm and relaxed to the casual fan. the subtlety of momentum swings and just the all around experience.  I can see the appeal to perfection and frankly the MLB playoffs are a bit more interesting to me (though I haven't paid attention since the Red Sox were first winning a few years back).  To each their own.  Glad MLB is experimenting with rules to try and get the game back.

Edited by troph
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You go with the chart. You just don’t call the dumbest play ever. 
You can hit on 18 in blackjack and win.  But if you don’t play optimal strategy you will lose, unless you have a significant talent advantage. That happens in college baseball. It doesn’t really exist in pro baseball. 
I’m not arguing pro baseball is a better game. I like them both. I’m just saying if you think the pros are not engaged in optimal strategy you are incorrect. 

I’m not anti-chart btw but I think even though there is ton of data, I’m not convinced it always drills down enough. At the same time, I don’t know exactly what they have access to. For instance, I don’t think the chart knows whether the opposition has their top dlinemen out for the game. Things like that should play in to the equation. In football you still see decisions to kick 50 yard field goals rather than going for it on 4th and 2 when your conversion rate is 50+ versus 40% in converting the field goal.

In the Carpenter example, if he does the bunt five times and gets 3 singles and 2 doubles, the numbers change and maybe the shift goes away. I realize if hitters hit into the shift continually, then it confirms that necessity. It did be interesting to see how a Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs are played.

The analytics are good tools, but I feel judgement calls are still needed more often. If you’re relying on analytics in baseball, you better have the data available to evaluate game situation including inning, outs, count, runners on, the pitcher, speed of the guys on base, etc. baseball does not seem great at breaking tendencies though which again would reaffirming usage of the data.
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2 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


I’m not anti-chart btw but I think even though there is ton of data, I’m not convinced it always drills down enough. At the same time, I don’t know exactly what they have access to. For instance, I don’t think the chart knows whether the opposition has their top dlinemen out for the game. Things like that should play in to the equation. In football you still see decisions to kick 50 yard field goals rather than going for it on 4th and 2 when your conversion rate is 50+ versus 40% in converting the field goal.

In the Carpenter example, if he does the bunt five times and gets 3 singles and 2 doubles, the numbers change and maybe the shift goes away. I realize if hitters hit into the shift continually, then it confirms that necessity. It did be interesting to see how a Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs are played.

The analytics are good tools, but I feel judgement calls are still needed more often. If you’re relying on analytics in baseball, you better have the data available to evaluate game situation including inning, outs, count, runners on, the pitcher, speed of the guys on base, etc. baseball does not seem great at breaking tendencies though which again would reaffirming usage of the data.

Agreed with almost all points. 
I saw Altuve shifted twice in the same game and he poked the ball through 2B home both times. After that no more shift- ever. 
they wouldn’t have shifted Boggs or Gwynn. 
they “only” shift about 39% of the time in average. The number should probably be about 60 but it’s never be everyone to your point. 

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Actually I say they probably did shift for Boggs and Gwynn. Maybe 3 or 4 steps the other way. It’s just not a 2020 shift.

And I used Gallo as an example previously largely because he’d be better off learning to hit rather than trying to mash it every swing. He’s a little like Melendez. Huge power but fails to square the ball up too much. Those are two guys with enough power that the homers would be there along with an increase in OPS, average if they’d learn to harness the power. No matter what analytics say, you do not get extra runs for hitting it 425 when 345 will clear the fence.

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5 hours ago, utee94 said:

Agree, all the pro sports leagues are pretty tough to take.  I'll still watch the NFL some because football is King, and some MLB,  but the NBA has been completely unwatchable for decades.

Agree with the above after slight revisions to illustrate my take.

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6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

What? No shit. That is a fuck of a way for a miracle CWS run to end.

Just message board/twitter fodder for now, but the names mentioned are Justice, Jarrett and possibly Highfill.  Would be devastating.

I guess we will know within the hour.

Edited by Don Johnson
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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Plenty of people have opted into “yeah, I still want to be at risk.” I know of multiple teams and workplaces that have had to deal with Covid outbreaks in the last coupla weeks. It’s really shitty.

They have opted into just that.  But shouldn't be tested anymore and should be allowed to play just as they would with any other sickness.  They aren't a risk towards anyone except those who have made a similar choice.

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1 minute ago, Don Johnson said:

They have opted into just that.  But shouldn't be tested anymore and should be allowed to play just as they would with any other sickness.  They aren't a risk towards anyone except those who have made a similar choice.

Yeah I would presume the overwhelming majority of players are vaccinated and it is outside so not much chance of transmission to the fans.

Ah well. No reason to debate this until we we know for sure.

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