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when does the United States crumble? will it happen in our lifetimes?


shadow_operative

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48 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

The problem is the school is staffed with adults who aren’t really paid to risk their lives in the multitude of ways we ask that from them. Probably the best way to protect the kids would have been to be adults ourselves starting last (shit, last last) March but that ship sailed.

when i became an adult and then started working at a school, i came to realize how many parents are just totally counting on the school to raise their kids for them. people expect way too much from teachers and educators. 

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23 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Tell me what class you grew up in without telling me. Seemingly everyone got an education?  I’m assuming you aren’t talking about an education in being drafted to fight Charlie. Care to expound on what kind of sweet interest rates they were paying on those houses in their 30’s, mid-80’s? If you were traveling anywhere but to see the grandparents then you were doing pretty ok.  

Interest rates were incredibly high in the 80s because the Fed had to combat hyperinflation caused by the oil embargo. I’m assuming by brining this up you think that generation didn’t have it easy because they borrowed at 12% in 1985 as opposed to 3.25% today. The thing you are forgetting (besides factoring in oil embargo and pandemic) is the trajectory of wages and home prices since 1985. The median household income in 1985 was $23,620. The median home price was $82,500 and average home price was $98,000. Today the median household income is $68,703 and the median home price is $374,900 and average is about $408,800. 

Notice any problems? Wages have not grown at the same rate as home prices. That is bad. 

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21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I’m assuming by brining this up you think that generation didn’t have it easy because they borrowed at 12% in 1985 as opposed to 3.25% today. The thing you are forgetting (besides factoring in oil embargo and pandemic) is the trajectory of wages and home prices since 1985. The median household income in 1985 was $23,620. The median home price was $82,500 and average home price was $98,000. Today the median household income is $68,703 and the median home price is $374,900 and average is about $408,800

Yes, peaking at 17% in ‘81.  Pointing it out purely to say that shit wasn’t nearly as glamorous as OP is remembering. And LOL at seemingly everyone being educated.  We’ve gone from a bit less than 25% median household income to home price, to a bit less than 20%.  An issue, yes.  An issue related to not only our economy, but also the global economy.   I would think rather pedestrian vehicles increasing by 3-400% would be more of an everyday issue for the American family than home price. 

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15 hours ago, Celery Man said:

I think there are a ton of examples of how poverty is expensive. Laundromats. Not being able to replace your $1000 car with a $3000 car because you keep having to dump money into the $1000 car. Interest rates, food, healthcare, costs from moving frequently, daycare, etc etc etc. 

 

 

There is also the difficulty of scraping up enough money for a down payment on a house, so the poor are stuck renting for their entire lives, instead of building equity.

 

 

 

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Back to the OP:

 

I think if it happens, it'll be a slide into some sort of fascist oligarchy. The slide will be facilitated or ignored for reasons already covered. Things like pandemics and natural disasters all act as accelerants to that slide. Things like increasing wealth disparity, voter suppression, science denial, and trumpism are all symptoms of the slide. Greed, stupidity, apathy, selfishness are all causes of the slide.

I think if it happens, we'll look a lot like today's Russia.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

when i became an adult and then started working at a school, i came to realize how many parents are just totally counting on the school to raise their kids for them. people expect way too much from teachers and educators. 

which is the same mentality expecting everyone to be provided with some -- any -- sort of full-time permanent labor as the zenith of civilization.

automate alll the things.

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7 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Interest rates were incredibly high in the 80s because the Fed had to combat hyperinflation caused by the oil embargo. I’m assuming by brining this up you think that generation didn’t have it easy because they borrowed at 12% in 1985 as opposed to 3.25% today. The thing you are forgetting (besides factoring in oil embargo and pandemic) is the trajectory of wages and home prices since 1985. The median household income in 1985 was $23,620. The median home price was $82,500 and average home price was $98,000. Today the median household income is $68,703 and the median home price is $374,900 and average is about $408,800. 

Notice any problems? Wages have not grown at the same rate as home prices. That is bad. 

yeah, people buy houses that are too fucking expensive.

Wish I had a dollar for every time someone came to our place and had this "i thought it'd be bigger" expression on their face. We don't buy expensive cars either.  My income damned sure didn't start out above average, but it now is significantly above it.  I didn't change my spending very much though.

Measuring the equation in your example by "averages" is anything but an absolute indicator of AVAILABLE wages, as well.  people today are making trade-offs versus maximizing their incomes.  That's fine with regard to quality of life choices, of course; but it skews the living fuck out of this argument overall.

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5 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

There is also the difficulty of scraping up enough money for a down payment on a house, so the poor are stuck renting for their entire lives, instead of building equity.

 

Down payment/closing costs is the largest barrier to home ownership. Saving up 20K is hard for many people. 

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11 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Intending no comment other than a true fact, companies rewarding long term employees with compensation commensurate with their industry peers (and consideration when cuts are made) is not a thing in this century. My dad worked for the same company his whole career, now that is a great way to make sure you spend your career not getting paid.

Not going to argue that! I didn't want to go too deep into it but suffice to say the times have changed. Much like Elvis, farming and factory work have left the building. 

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2 hours ago, slorch said:

yeah, people buy houses that are too fucking expensive.

Wish I had a dollar for every time someone came to our place and had this "i thought it'd be bigger" expression on their face. We don't buy expensive cars either.  My income damned sure didn't start out above average, but it now is significantly above it.  I didn't change my spending very much though.

Measuring the equation in your example by "averages" is anything but an absolute indicator of AVAILABLE wages, as well.  people today are making trade-offs versus maximizing their incomes.  That's fine with regard to quality of life choices, of course; but it skews the living fuck out of this argument overall.

I was raised with Want. Vs. Need. You want a McMansion, you need a home. If you can do it great, but so many believe they MUST have more than they need. 

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Someone with some actual numbers and an unbiased analysis could convince me I'm wrong (probably more on the car end) but I feel like the rising average cost of cars is more an artifact of luxury spending than is the rising cost of housing. Certainly people are out there buying mcmansions (which are on postage sized lots with no yard because people don't really have a ton of freedom in house buying and developers make more money cramming more houses into developments).  But if anything I feel like rather than the housing cost being inflated by expensive homes pseudo luxury homes the real cost is deflated by homes in areas where young people can't live if they want any kind of opportunity. The 78745 3/2 house that cost probably somewhere in the $30ks (based on a comment from a neighbor) in 1983 that sold for $195k in 2009 and then was purchased for $275k in 2016 and is now worth $550-600k and meanwhile the upgrades have been new siding and cheap vinyl flooring. That's obviously influenced by it being Austin, but what's happening in Austin with home prices is happening to some meaningful degree in every urban center containing jobs and opportunity. And of course it's not limited to housing - I don't spend a ton of time on Reddit but half the posts in r\raleigh and I'm sure r\austin are about rent increases. In 2009 I was renting a decent 1/br apartment in the Arboretum for $800/month. Fat fucking chance.

Car prices have risen but purely on my (certainly capable of not being accurate) observation it seems like that's a lot of growth in the luxury end of the market. I specifically remember a thread on here or the old site circa 2016 where people were moaning about how you can't buy a truck for under $45k anymore, I mentioned how I had recently brought a brand new 4 door F150 with.. heated power seats and mirrors, touch screen, 325 horses, etc for $33k and the response was about the spartan interior/lack of leather. Because that's what the cheap trucks you're remembering from your childhood were about. I guess it's not quite apples to apples but a Honda Fit in 2021 with a million more bells and whistles is not that much more than a Chevy Cavalier cost in 1994.

 

Anyways big long ramble - one thing I feel very strongly about is that if you minimize rising housing costs and the impact that is having on people to "you shouldn't buy a mcmansion then" (which may not be exactly what people mean in this thread) you are out of touch and don't know what is happening, that is not it.

Housing conversation also touches on the rural/urban divide which is of course incredibly central to the question posed by the thread, along with the haves/have nots gap.

 

Edited by Celery Man
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1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

Someone with some actual numbers and an unbiased analysis could convince me I'm wrong (probably more on the car end) but I feel like the rising average cost of cars is more an artifact of luxury spending than is the rising cost of housing. Certainly people are out there buying mcmansions (which are on postage sized lots with no yard because people don't really have a ton of freedom in house buying and developers make more money cramming more houses into developments).  But if anything I feel like rather than the housing cost being inflated by expensive homes pseudo luxury homes the real cost is deflated by homes in areas where young people can't live if they want any kind of opportunity. The 78745 3/2 house that cost probably somewhere in the $30ks (based on a comment from a neighbor) in 1983 that sold for $195k in 2009 and then was purchased for $275k in 2016 and is now worth $550-600k and meanwhile the upgrades have been new siding and cheap vinyl flooring. That's obviously influenced by it being Austin, but what's happening in Austin with home prices is happening to some meaningful degree in every urban center containing jobs and opportunity. And of course it's not limited to housing - I don't spend a ton of time on Reddit but half the posts in r\raleigh and I'm sure r\austin are about rent increases. In 2009 I was renting a decent 1/br apartment in the Arboretum for $800/month. Fat fucking chance.

Car prices have risen but purely on my (certainly capable of not being accurate) observation it seems like that's a lot of growth in the luxury end of the market. I specifically remember a thread on here or the old site circa 2016 where people were moaning about how you can't buy a truck for under $45k anymore, I mentioned how I had recently brought a brand new 4 door F150 with.. heated power seats and mirrors, touch screen, 325 horses, etc for $33k and the response was about the spartan interior/lack of leather. Because that's what the cheap trucks you're remembering from your childhood were about. I guess it's not quite apples to apples but a Honda Fit in 2021 with a million more bells and whistles is not that much more than a Chevy Cavalier cost in 1994.

 

Anyways big long ramble - one thing I feel very strongly about is that if you minimize rising housing costs and the impact that is having on people to "you shouldn't buy a mcmansion then" (which may not be exactly what people mean in this thread) you are out of touch and don't know what is happening, that is not it.

Housing conversation also touches on the rural/urban divide which is of course incredibly central to the question posed by the thread, along with the haves/have nots gap.

 

I think your examples are more indicative of the surly-class "misplaced priorities" or overemphasis on the material.

Wife and I build a house together.  We "had" to overbuild for resale purposes, when we would have been content with a smaller home.

Car prices are crazy.  But, you can still get a pretty excellent vehicle for 20 something thousand.  But that's still beyond the reach of the poors.

Unlike corporate revenue and profits, increased cost of luxury versions of  necessities like homes and cars does trickle down to the poors.

 

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😁 That truck thread example stuck out to me because of the RAPID turnaround from "man you just can't buy a cheap truck no more!" to "OK they exist new for 20 grand and you can get a nicely equipped one for low 30s but I need leather seats that suck the heat out of my asshole or no deal".

Base price for a Honda Fit is $16,190, in 1994 the bottom of the line Chevy Cavalier was $11,000. I know if we extend back into the late 70s there was a huge jump. It probably feels like I'm picking a nit here and I'm not really trying to, I just feel like housing is on the level of a crisis while cars are.... as always a huge expense for people scraping by and definitely the biggest stupid purchase that people across a lot of income levels make, but I feel like a lot of the "average price of" math comes from (to go back to the trucks) $80,000 F-150s that just didn't used to be a thing at all.

 

*edit*

maybe to tie back to the point a bit more - the thing that makes housing expensive is the location. And again where it's expensive to be poor - you don't have to get the burled walnut f150 platinum with baseball glove asshole sucking leather seats to have transportation, but if you're trying to work in <insert place where opportunity exists in 2020> and you don't have a bundle of cash, you can't just choose to get a smaller house with formica counters and solve your housing problem. Those houses are still fucking expensive, and the apartments are too. (and so you end up in an exurb and burn time/gas getting to work)

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I don't think it's gonna "crumble" in our lifetime. Butttt... it's not at all comforting or reassuring for future generations that wer'e seeing some of the institutions that made this country great even with all its flaws being chipped away bit by bit by bit. And especially rage inducing/sad that there's a segment of our population that's all for it while being completely ignorant of the impact. 

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A Honda Fit has more interior room than the old Cavalier, is safer, and isn't a piece of shit.  A brand new car is not a necessity, and there is a great big world in the used market for something that is reliable but doesn't require a payment plan.  Houses cost more because there are more people in a finite amount of land, and they're all coalescing around the same place. 

People are always nostalgic for a time that they haven't actually experienced.  Like, yeah, wish I could go back to when certain minorities couldn't attend school, people died of polio, heads of state were getting assassinated, lobotomies were a legitimate procedure, and if you were sick - the doctor might prescribe you cocaine. 

Well...maybe that last one isnt so bad.

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This whole mentality is 100% the fault of the media.

If for the last 20 years the media had been pounding the message of the 100 person chart above and how great things are we would have a completely different narrative.

But instead we’ve had a megaphone to our ear relentlessly blasting messages of what a disaster everything is.

People - use your own brains and your own two eyes.

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14 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

This whole mentality is 100% the fault of the media.

If for the last 20 years the media had been pounding the message of the 100 person chart above and how great things are we would have a completely different narrative.

But instead we’ve had a megaphone to our ear relentlessly blasting messages of what a disaster everything is.

People - use your own brains and your own two eyes.

If it bleeds, it leads...

Sensational bad news sells papers (or generates clicks).

It sucks...

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59 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

This whole mentality is 100% the fault of the media.

If for the last 20 years the media had been pounding the message of the 100 person chart above and how great things are we would have a completely different narrative.

But instead we’ve had a megaphone to our ear relentlessly blasting messages of what a disaster everything is.

People - use your own brains and your own two eyes.

Good news does not sell you silly, silly man...  24 hour news cycle out front should have told ya. : )

Our daughter was doing her graduation weekend commencements (2014), and one of the speakers was a former Hillary Clinton aid.  He talked about how the world was a much better place than it had ever been.  He went down a long laundry list (similar to the 100 person chart).  He had a very positive outlook on where we were, and where we were going.

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1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

If for the last 20 years the media had been pounding the message of the 100 person chart above and how great things are we would have a completely different narrative.

I somewhat agree with you that the intensity of "The world is ending" would dampen a bit if the media focused on the results from that graph. But I don't think overall we would be somehow more blissful. It can be true that on some metrics covered from that chart overall is true but drilling into specifics/demographics etc will also show where it hasn't improved. 

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"Crumble" might be a strong word, but the 2024 Presidential election is shaping up to be a major flashpoint.

The wheels are in motion for the House to refuse to certify and/or certain state legislatures to overrule the popular vote due to "irregularities" or "fraud" (not stupid enough to argue about the validity of these concerns in this forum), and if that happens then the unrest will be historic.

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I don't think anyone here is confused about the state of the world now versus 200 years ago, or the state of America as compared to undeveloped nations when it comes to things like infant mortality and literacy. "Better than Eritrea" is not our standard. I don't think that America is about to crumble but there is a whole bunch of shit that is simply unsustainable that is happening and it's not clear that anything is going to change. It's been a shaky couple years and if you think that that's just media coverage, you have an insane hard on for whistling past the graveyard or are simply oblivious.

Edited by Celery Man
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22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

"Crumble" might be a strong word, but the 2024 Presidential election is shaping up to be a major flashpoint.

The wheels are in motion for the House to refuse to certify and/or certain state legislatures to overrule the popular vote due to "irregularities" or "fraud" (not stupid enough to argue about the validity of these concerns in this forum), and if that happens then the unrest will be historic.

This thread is an interesting read, but I’m afraid this is the post that speaks to the thread title.  
 

The beaches of democracy have been getting shelled by far-right propaganda for years.  The actual invasion comes when right-wing lunatics like Gohmert and MTG are joined by state-level opportunists like Abbott and Paxton - and the baseless accusations of fraud are used to subvert the popular vote of the swing states.  
 

There were a few principled Republicans (Georgia SOS) who prevented that subversion in 2020, but those people are being actively targeted and replaced in preparation for 2024 and beyond. 
 

Edit:   There may only be 20-25% of Americans who are buying the Trump-Giuliani-Sidney Powell horse shit, but there are at least that many more who - having been softened by decades of propaganda- don’t want the tax rates to go back to what they were in 2001, and will thus be okay with the coup. 

Edited by Paul Wesley
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This thread is an interesting read, but I’m afraid this is the post that speaks to the thread title.  
 
The beaches of democracy have been getting shelled by far-right propaganda for years.  The actual invasion comes when right-wing lunatics like Gohmert and MTG are joined by state-level opportunists like Abbott and Paxton - and the baseless accusations of fraud are used to subvert the popular vote of the swing states.  
 
There were a few principled Republicans (Georgia SOS) who prevented that subversion in 2020, but those people are being actively targeted and replaced in preparation for 2024 and beyond. 

This. When the results of a valid popular election are simply overruled by fiat of the ruling party….well, that’s every authoritarian shithole country we’ve made fun of over the last 80 years or so, isn’t it?
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1 minute ago, Paul Wesley said:

This thread is an interesting read, but I’m afraid this is the post that speaks to the thread title.  
 

The beaches of democracy have been getting shelled by far-right propaganda for years.  The actual invasion comes when right-wing lunatics like Gohmert and MTG are joined by state-level opportunists like Abbott and Paxton - and the baseless accusations of fraud are used to subvert the popular vote of the swing states.  
 

There were a few principled Republicans (Georgia SOS) who prevented that subversion in 2020, but those people are being actively targeted and replaced in preparation for 2024 and beyond. 

If you're a true patriot, you have to acknowledge that the beaches of democracy are being shelled by fringes of both sides and have been for years.  The extremes are to blame, not one side or another.  That's just ignorant and pedantic.  

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20 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I don't think anyone here is confused about the state of the world now versus 200 years ago, or the state of America as compared to undeveloped nations when it comes to things like infant mortality and literacy. "Better than Eritrea" is not our standard. I don't think that America is about to crumble but there is a whole bunch of shit that is simply unsustainable that is happening and it's not clear that anything is going to change. It's been a shaky couple years and if you think that that's just media coverage, you have an insane hard on for whistling past the graveyard or are simply oblivious.

bingo. whether or not the media reports on any of this stuff, it's still happening.

also, i've struggled to find a way to respond to tbone's post without mentioning politics, so i will tag @hayden_horn and ask him to remove this next part of my post if it crosses the line. you know i'm not a CR guy, but in this case my truthful response to tbone simply does involve politics. so here it is:

in my experience, it's ironically and almost exclusively right wing folks who a)believe what tbone just posted (this is just the media you getting you guys riled up, think for yourself), but then b)bombard themselves with news media coverage 24/7 and then shape their entire world view on said media coverage. truly, in my experience both of these things are republican issues/ways of life. none of my left leaning friends consume and are influenced by media like my right wing friends, with zero exceptions. i think this speaks to the divide in this country which many in this thread have tried to downplay. from where i sit, the growing tensions between left and right are not going away any time soon, but rather ratcheting up, in large part due to this "if it bleeds it leads" type media and it's consumption (among other things mentioned in this thread, such as lack of access to higher education, which as we know is more prevalent in the parts of the country which skew towards the right).

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8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

If you're a true patriot, you have to acknowledge that the beaches of democracy are being shelled by fringes of both sides and have been for years.  The extremes are to blame, not one side or another.  That's just ignorant and pedantic.  

Dude, the loudest voice of the “RIGGED!!!!!” assholes was the fucking President himself.  Is that a “fringe?”  And are you telling me that there are voices on the left of equal number and positions of power subverting faith in elections in order to overthrow their results?

So no, I can’t agree to your “both sides!” argument.

I am definitely a patriot, btw.

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21 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

If you're a true patriot, you have to acknowledge that the beaches of democracy are being shelled by fringes of both sides and have been for years.  The extremes are to blame, not one side or another.  That's just ignorant and pedantic.  

Actually this is ignorant.

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22 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

If you're a true patriot, you have to acknowledge that the beaches of democracy are being shelled by fringes of both sides and have been for years.  The extremes are to blame, not one side or another.  That's just ignorant and pedantic.  

I strongly disagree that true patriots see a literal attack on the transfer of power by the loser of the election as a both sides type issue. I feel strongly that it is in fact the exact opposite of that.

Edited by Celery Man
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16 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

Dude, the loudest voice of the “RIGGED!!!!!” assholes was the fucking President himself.  Is that a “fringe?”  And are you telling me that there are voices on the left of equal number and positions of power subverting faith in elections in order to overthrow their results?

So no, I can’t agree to your “both sides!” argument.

I am definitely a patriot, btw.

As someone who did not vote for trump, or the democrat candidate in 16 or 20, and is a centrist at heart, it’s pretty clear when you take off your glasses that the ultra-trumpist right and the ultra progressive left have both attacked the halls of democracy. I’ll leave it at that 

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13 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I strongly disagree that true patriots see a literal attack on the transfer of power by the loser of the election as a both sides type issue. I feel strongly that it is in fact the exact opposite of that.

Lot of revisionist history on several of the last few elections.   

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Shadow - I actually meant that post in the most non-partisan way possible.

I get your point about the right, but ever so often over the last few months I conducted my own little anecdotal series of experiments. As someone who pretty much never watches either, I’d turn on Fox News for a bit, then turn on CNN for a bit and do a little back and forth. Almost every time both were vigorously harping on how something was wrong and fucked up and viewers should be outraged by it. Of course, the subject matter was different based on which channel I was watching but the message was the same - things aren’t going well and you should be freaked out by it.

So to clarify my point, I’m not advocating whistling past the graveyard in any respect. But I am saying decades of messaging that everyone should be outraged by whatever the topic is has taken a toll and had a significant effect.

And I just think that if that messaging had been different we wouldn’t be having as many discussions about our country crumbling. Because I don’t think it is. I think shit has always been fucked up and will always be fucked up, from the beginning of human history to the end of human history. And nothing wrong with trying to get better. But the level of angst created by the non stop messaging is unwarranted IMO.

So I removed all news channels from my YTTV guide. And I’ve made it a point to watch as little local and network news as possible. If it wasn’t for sports I’d remove the network channels too. It’s just all fucking toxic.

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Just now, Trey3216 said:

As someone who did not vote for trump, or the democrat candidate in 16 or 20, and is a centrist at heart, it’s pretty clear when you take off your glasses that the ultra-trumpist right and the ultra progressive left have both attacked the halls of democracy. I’ll leave it at that 

Yes, those tapes of Hillary demanding state-level election officials to “Find me enough votes” to allow Democrats to retain power in 2016…

Or when Kerry gathered a mob and sent them to the Capitol to murder a few police officers and injure a hundred more  

I see what you mean about both sides attacking those halls.

 

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Just now, Paul Wesley said:

Yes, those tapes of Hillary demanding state-level election officials to “Find me enough votes” to allow Democrats to retain power in 2016…

Or when Kerry gathered a mob and sent them to the Capitol to murder a few police officers and injure a hundred more  

I see what you mean about both sides attacking those halls.

 

Like h people hired by Hillary’s campaign to deal with Russians to create fake dossiers in efforts to connect an opponent to said dossier as collusion isn’t collusion?  Yeah, that’s not attacking the halls of democracy either.   

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