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Realignment talk not going away


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On 6/7/2019 at 3:31 PM, Machinator said:

 

This one interests me.   It's advertised as a lot of money, but it looks to me that investors are severely undervaluing the Pac 12.   Their 2018 revenues were nearly a half billion dollars, which means their ten year revenues will be between $5 and $6 billion.   Any buy-in may give them a short term financial shot in the arm, but those investors will act as additional member schools who are not providing yearly content, wanting a return on their investment.  And that financial shot may not even be that big after factoring in PacN expenses.

These investors must be named Disney or Comcast or Amazon or Google with a plan for how to increase revenue with this content, or they won't get a good return.

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2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

This one interests me.   It's advertised as a lot of money, but it looks to me that investors are severely undervaluing the Pac 12.   Their 2018 revenues were nearly a half billion dollars, which means their ten year revenues will be between $5 and $6 billion.   Any buy-in may give them a short term financial shot in the arm, but those investors will act as additional member schools who are not providing yearly content, wanting a return on their investment.  And that financial shot may not even be that big after factoring in PacN expenses.

These investors must be named Disney or Comcast or Amazon or Google with a plan for how to increase revenue with this content, or they won't get a good return.

there are only two possibilities I see.....they are basically doing a JD Wentworth type deal for up front money that comes with a cost to long term revenues (the profits to the investors)

or what you said some media company feels they can cram the PAC12n onto cable MSOs and then the PAC12n makes more money and everyone wins

but it was just released that Disney/ESPN/ABC offered the PAC 12 zero dollars and zero cents to take over distribution of the PAC12n which of course Disney/ESPN/ABC would be looking to do exactly that cram the PAC12n onto cable companies using the leverage of ESPN and the Disney channels to get it done.....the PAC 12 said no

Disney is the one that crams channels the most successfully and if they saw the only way to make it work as offering zero to the PAC 12 well the value is probably close to zero to make that work

of course ESPN could have cut a lot of cost too they do not need studios and production trucks and talking dickheads or over paid executives they have more than enough of all of that and have been cutting it

it is difficult to believe that any other channel group like Discovery, A&E, Warner, Warner Sony, Liberty (barely in the USA now) or any other would place a value of $750 million or even close to that to try and cram a product that the market has clearly said they do not care about getting (no one canceled Direct TV to the point that AT&T dumped the PAC12n a couple of years later and no one cared)

that is taking a big risk you might find that no one gives a shit about your other channels being on their cable bill either if you black them out to try and force the cable companies to carry the PAC12n

I can't see any company paying $750 million to take that risk when Disney valued taking that risk (that is a lot less of a risk and that they have done again and again)  at ZERO

I can't see Direct TV or AT&T or Liberty and John Malone (formerly involved with Liberty and Direct TV) paying that amount when AT&T already said piss off on both their cable/uverse and Direct TV

and even then if it was AT&T or Comcast or anyone else that has cable plants I cannot see other cable MSOs being happy with their somewhat competition making a profit bt trying to cram channels on them and while Comcast has NBC and some other channels you can get NBC over the air and their other channels are minor and AT&T and Direct have no channels I know of

so it goes back to me thinking the PAC 12 is just taking an up front payment for a share of future revenues that includes a profit for those...and that profit will not be small......and possibly some hope that the investor can cover some of that profit with better cable deals

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1 hour ago, kopp0e said:

In a sign of the times, Directv/ Dish may look at a merger due to cord cutting...

This shows how content (think brand vs brand) will be the next move for realignment, as in XII poaching PAC brands (potentially)...

Didn’t the FCC stop them from merging in the 2000s?

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1 hour ago, Pasken said:

Didn’t the FCC stop them from merging in the 2000s?

I don't see how they can stop it this time.. Sirius and XM radio merged together years ago because of the same thing.  I actually enjoyed Direct TV and the audience channel it had, but the signal and tall trees around my home/neighboorhood here in VA didn't get along.

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On 6/7/2019 at 2:36 PM, Machinator said:

 

What does the CBS deal with an NCAA conference have to do with ESPN"s deal with the NFL?  Why is that even mentioned?  Why not throw in the cost to televise a Super Bowl?  Stupid tweet.

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3 hours ago, Pasken said:

Didn’t the FCC stop them from merging in the 2000s?

Yes: (but as noted, it sounds that with Disney+/ Hulu/ Youtube/ Amazon, this may pass this time:

 
 
 
Quote
Oct 31, 2002 - The Justice Department Thursday sued to block the proposed $26 ... saying combining DirecTV and EchoStar's DISH Network would hurt ...
 
 
 
Quote
2 days ago - Rumblings are getting louder about a potential merger of leading satellite TV distributors DirecTV and Dish, with stocks in both services' parent ...

 

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On 5/31/2019 at 9:56 PM, rickyspub said:

ACC paid out an average of $29.5M per school. The end of the article lists the Big 10 at the top with an average distribution of $54M to everyone but Maryland and Rutgers. SEC comes in with a $43.7M per school average, Pac is at $31.5M (or $29.5M if you take out the 'actual cash distributions' claimed by Larry Scott). Of course, it should be noted that these distributions include all T3 media unlike the Big 12.

Texas probably still tops everyone and the average Big 12 earnings per team is likely in line with the SEC. 

That ACC # is a projection for NEXT year.

B1G is $49 million average as MD is getting $26.1 and Rutgers is getting $11.7 million.  The conference that loves to talk about everyone being equal has charged Nebraska $50-$60 million for membership while A&M, Mizzou and Colorado basically became full members upon entry.  Nebraska will take a while to catch up to what they would have earned if they simply stayed in the Big 12 (and the Big 12 schools all voted to keep them in the AAU).  The B1G is charging Rutgers a huge sum.  Looks like its hundred(s) of millions.

2016-17 is the last year we have good numbers for all the conferences and that was before the B1G got their B$G contract.  SEC $40.9, B1G $36.3, B12 $34.8, P12 $30.9, ACC $26.6.

 

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3 hours ago, bullet said:

That ACC # is a projection for NEXT year.

B1G is $49 million average as MD is getting $26.1 and Rutgers is getting $11.7 million.  The conference that loves to talk about everyone being equal has charged Nebraska $50-$60 million for membership while A&M, Mizzou and Colorado basically became full members upon entry.  Nebraska will take a while to catch up to what they would have earned if they simply stayed in the Big 12 (and the Big 12 schools all voted to keep them in the AAU).  The B1G is charging Rutgers a huge sum.  

 

Because they have to buy shares in the BTN?

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5 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

Because they have to buy shares in the BTN?

but in theory especially with Rutgers and Maryland they "delivered" the NYC and Washington DC metro areas and the "in market" subscriber rates so they were thought to bring value to the conference

now that might seem like bullshit to most people especially with Rutgers and NYC (where lots of people do not care about college sports and Rutgers is looked down upon in a morass of highly ranked private schools) and even with Maryland and DC, but they surely were not added for the quality of their athletics

and it looks like more bullshit with cord cutting and the fact that a much more popular (and equally meh) aggy was straight up said to not deliver "in state" cable rates for the SEC SEC SEC network in Texas.....but of course people on the east coast are much more use to taking it in the ass from cable companies for things they do not give a shit about vs places like Texas where people get pissed off paying to support teams they don't like

really the Big 10 had to stick it to Maryland and Rutgers because they did it with Nebraska and really they know they could stick it to them so they did

MU, CU and aggy did get into their conferences free though......Utah paid to get in the PAC 12 people like to forget that just like they like to forget that the PAC 12 had uneven revenue sharing until their new contract and USC and UCLA demanded $20 million per year on average or they wanted the others to pay up to them while aggy made the same demand of the Big 12 (with a published threat of a lawsuit yet they cry about Baylor threatening them with a lawsuit over leaving) and Texas and OU declined the same OFFER from other Big 12 members

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Since the TV models are changing and "access to a state" means jack shit anymore, my grand solution is to go back to 12 team conferences. There is enough for six conferences

Pac-12: Stays the same.

Big 10: Drops Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers; adds Notre Dame

SEC: Drops Aggy and Mizzou

Big XII: Takes back Aggy, Nebraska, and Mizzou; drops WVU

ACC: Splits into two 12 team conferences; drops ND; adds Maryland, Rutgers, WVU,  Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and SMU. Split them however you want, probably old original ACC in once conference, old Big East/ACC in the other.

Each conference has two divisions, whose play round robins and whose champs play each other. Basically a first round playoff. The CFP expands to 8, all conference champs, and two at large (because SEC needs extras cause SEC, but whatever).

Done, fuck everyone.

Edited by 'stache
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First team this morning, they did a ranking of conferences heading into the CFB season. Big 12 was ranked 3, but a gap is beginning to grow between them and the SEC/Big10 because of money.  I thought Big 12 schools were getting paid close to what the SEC is getting?  and isn't the only reason the Big 10 is so high per team because Rutgers is taking a huge cut that is going to everyone else?

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Since the TV models are changing and "access to a state" means jack shit anymore, my grand solution is to go back to 12 team conferences. There is enough for six conferences

Pac-12: Stays the same.

Big 10: Drops Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers; adds Notre Dame

SEC: Drops Aggy and Mizzou

Big XII: Takes back Aggy, Nebraska, and Mizzou; drops WVU

ACC: Splits into two 12 team conferences; drops ND; adds Maryland, Rutgers, WVU,  Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and SMU. Split them however you want, probably old original ACC in once conference, old Big East/ACC in the other.

Each conference has two divisions, whose play round robins and whose champs play each other. Basically a first round playoff. The CFP expands to 8, all conference champs, and two at large (because SEC needs extras cause SEC, but whatever).

Done, fuck everyone.

Yeah I wouldn't hold my breathe for this to happen.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Since the TV models are changing and "access to a state" means jack shit anymore, my grand solution is to go back to 12 team conferences. There is enough for six conferences

Pac-12: Stays the same.

Big 10: Drops Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers; adds Notre Dame

SEC: Drops Aggy and Mizzou

Big XII: Takes back Aggy, Nebraska, and Mizzou; drops WVU

ACC: Splits into two 12 team conferences; drops ND; adds Maryland, Rutgers, WVU,  Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and SMU. Split them however you want, probably old original ACC in once conference, old Big East/ACC in the other.

Each conference has two divisions, whose play round robins and whose champs play each other. Basically a first round playoff. The CFP expands to 8, all conference champs, and two at large (because SEC needs extras cause SEC, but whatever).

Done, fuck everyone.

A logical solution that preserves what's great about college football.  So of course it has zero chance of happening.

If Notre Dame had just joined the Big 10, none of this shit would have ever happened.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Since the TV models are changing and "access to a state" means jack shit anymore, my grand solution is to go back to 12 team conferences. There is enough for six conferences

Pac-12: Stays the same.

Big 10: Drops Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers; adds Notre Dame

SEC: Drops Aggy and Mizzou

Big XII: Takes back Aggy, Nebraska, and Mizzou; drops WVU

ACC: Splits into two 12 team conferences; drops ND; adds Maryland, Rutgers, WVU,  Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and SMU. Split them however you want, probably old original ACC in once conference, old Big East/ACC in the other.

Each conference has two divisions, whose play round robins and whose champs play each other. Basically a first round playoff. The CFP expands to 8, all conference champs, and two at large (because SEC needs extras cause SEC, but whatever).

Done, fuck everyone.

Invalid model. Preserves Baylor and brings back aggy. Please show yourself out. 

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Just now, nnm said:

Invalid model. Preserves Baylor and brings back aggy. Please show yourself out. 

Fuck aggy. They should never have been allowed to run away and pretend they somehow improved by getting their asses kicked by SEC instead of Big XII teams. They should be here for us to continue beating and tasting their aggy tears. Now they lose but in their minds are somehow superior becase SEC. Fuck them, let Big XII teams ruin their seasons again.

Also, I'm fine with anything that kicks Baylor out. Since my suggestion won't happen anyway, I'm happy to add in kicking out Baylor and adding literally anyone else in their place. 

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Fuck aggy. They should never have been allowed to run away and pretend they somehow improved by getting their asses kicked by SEC instead of Big XII teams. They should be here for us to continue beating and tasting their aggy tears. Now they lose but in their minds are somehow superior becase SEC. Fuck them, let Big XII teams ruin their seasons again.

Also, I'm fine with anything that kicks Baylor out. Since my suggestion won't happen anyway, I'm happy to add in kicking out Baylor and adding literally anyone else in their place. 

Tulane for the win

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3 hours ago, Thiefery said:

First team this morning, they did a ranking of conferences heading into the CFB season. Big 12 was ranked 3, but a gap is beginning to grow between them and the SEC/Big10 because of money.  I thought Big 12 schools were getting paid close to what the SEC is getting?  and isn't the only reason the Big 10 is so high per team because Rutgers is taking a huge cut that is going to everyone else?

Yes, SEC paid out $43m all in, Big 12 paid out $38 not including T3.   It isn't a giant difference.

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8 hours ago, 'stache said:

Since the TV models are changing and "access to a state" means jack shit anymore, my grand solution is to go back to 12 team conferences. There is enough for six conferences

Pac-12: Stays the same.

Big 10: Drops Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers; adds Notre Dame

SEC: Drops Aggy and Mizzou

Big XII: Takes back Aggy, Nebraska, and Mizzou; drops WVU

ACC: Splits into two 12 team conferences; drops ND; adds Maryland, Rutgers, WVU,  Uconn, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and SMU. Split them however you want, probably old original ACC in once conference, old Big East/ACC in the other.

Each conference has two divisions, whose play round robins and whose champs play each other. Basically a first round playoff. The CFP expands to 8, all conference champs, and two at large (because SEC needs extras cause SEC, but whatever).

Done, fuck everyone.

Don't want Faggy back.

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6 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 


If Notre Dame had become the 12th Big 10 school, we probably never see the 14 team leagues and Big 12 almost-Armageddon of 2010.

 

I've heard that line of thought from the Big East (well the ones who got Left Behind) but never the BUG.  ND doesn't solve their demographic problem.  There aren't huge Irish populations in the big cities back east anymore.  And the ones still there aren't begetting much football talent. 

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I've heard that line of thought from the Big East (well the ones who got Left Behind) but never the BUG.  ND doesn't solve their demographic problem.  There aren't huge Irish populations in the big cities back east anymore.  And the ones still there aren't begetting much football talent. 

 

Nebraska didn’t solve any demographic problem either. But it added a brand with national attention.

 

I’m saying that if Notre Dame had joined the Big 10 in the 90’s, they would have been in the kind of financial/alignment position that they didn’t feel any need to expand in the late 00’s.

 

Some other unforeseen event could have shaken up college sports and caused some realignment, but I don’t think it would have been the emotional knee jerk scenario that unfolded.

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18 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 

Nebraska didn’t solve any demographic problem either. But it added a brand with national attention.

 

I’m saying that if Notre Dame had joined the Big 10 in the 90’s, they would have been in the kind of financial/alignment position that they didn’t feel any need to expand in the late 00’s.

 

Some other unforeseen event could have shaken up college sports and caused some realignment, but I don’t think it would have been the emotional knee jerk scenario that unfolded.

CR has happened in every generation.  A lot seems to have been spaced out in @18 year increments.

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4 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

CR has happened in every generation.  A lot seems to have been spaced out in @18 year increments.

Whenever the way to make money changed.  Big state schools good-small schools in pro markets bad after WWII--realignment.  UGA and OU win lawsuit and end NCAA monopoly on TV-=realignment.  Conference championship games and conference networks=-realignment.

End of the cable model and move to streaming-next realignment.

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On 6/11/2019 at 12:40 PM, Al_4_ISU said:

A logical solution that preserves what's great about college football.  So of course it has zero chance of happening.

If Notre Dame had just joined the Big 10, none of this shit would have ever happened.

Still a long shot, but at least imaginable, is 3 groups each with 10-12 team conferences.   Joint management and TV contracts.  Some within group out of conference matchups.

BTN group

Big 10 (12 teams) less Maryland & Penn St.

Big Atlantic (10-12 teams)-Maryland, Penn St., Notre Dame, ACC Coastal (Pitt/UNC/Duke/UVA/VT/GT/Miami) and perhaps UConn and USF

 

SEN group

SEC (12 teams) less Mizzou and South Carolina

ACC- (10-12 teams) Mizzou, South Carolina, West Virginia, ACC Atlantic (FSU/Clemson/NCSU/WF/SU/BC/Louisville) and perhaps Temple and UCF

 

West Group

Pac 12 (12 teams)

Big 12 (10-12 teams) less WVU + Window Cougars--and perhaps Red Cougars and Cincinnati.

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Netflix, and Disney+ are starting to bid on streaming football.  YouTube is already involved in sports now as evidenced by NFL and NBA coverage.

Not sure how all the musical chairs ends up, but the B12 needs to improve its lineup SOON.  Someone in the B12 office needs to get creative quickly or the B12 will end up losing TEXAS and blOU to another conference when the 🎶 music 🎶 stops...

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On 6/11/2019 at 11:51 AM, 'stache said:

Fuck aggy. They should never have been allowed to run away and pretend they somehow improved by getting their asses kicked by SEC instead of Big XII teams. They should be here for us to continue beating and tasting their aggy tears. Now they lose but in their minds are somehow superior becase SEC. Fuck them, let Big XII teams ruin their seasons again.

Also, I'm fine with anything that kicks Baylor out. Since my suggestion won't happen anyway, I'm happy to add in kicking out Baylor and adding literally anyone else in their place. 

I'm absolutely fine with them being gone AND their thinking they are winning.

 

That my friend is a win-win for everyone...'cept maybe for the SEC.

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On 6/11/2019 at 10:51 AM, 'stache said:

Fuck aggy. They should never have been allowed to run away and pretend they somehow improved by getting their asses kicked by SEC instead of Big XII teams. They should be here for us to continue beating and tasting their aggy tears. Now they lose but in their minds are somehow superior becase SEC. Fuck them, let Big XII teams ruin their seasons again.

Also, I'm fine with anything that kicks Baylor out. Since my suggestion won't happen anyway, I'm happy to add in kicking out Baylor and adding literally anyone else in their place. 

Yeah...the Horns beating them 2 out of every 3 times they play over the course of a century; Tech and Ok St regularly beating them; hell, even OU sodomizing them by 77 were all good times. Plus, if A&M and Baylor play each other ever year, you can at least hope for some natural disaster that would instantly incinerate the stadium. (Just kidding, I don't actually want aggies to die; but I do want the entire Baylor campus and the city of Waco incinerated, and all its corrupt university and civic leadership/rape enablers to fucking die.)

 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Yeah...the Horns beating them 2 out of every 3 times they play over the course of a century; Tech and Ok St regularly beating them; hell, even OU sodomizing them by 77 were all good times. Plus, if A&M and Baylor play each other ever year, you can at least hope for some natural disaster that would instantly incinerate the stadium. (Just kidding, I don't actually want aggies to die; but I do want the entire Baylor campus and the city of Waco incinerated, and all its corrupt university and civic leadership/rape enablers to fucking die.)
 


I can’t like this any harder
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7 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Netflix, and Disney+ are starting to bid on streaming football.  YouTube is already involved in sports now as evidenced by NFL and NBA coverage.

Not sure how all the musical chairs ends up, but the B12 needs to improve its lineup SOON.  Someone in the B12 office needs to get creative quickly or the B12 will end up losing TEXAS and blOU to another conference when the 🎶 music 🎶 stops...

If Netflix and Disney plus (which ESPN plus will be bundled with), are entering the CFB world, so too Amazon right?  Big 12 will be fine because the two schools that carry weight are Texas and ou sucks.

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2 hours ago, Thiefery said:

If Netflix and Disney plus (which ESPN plus will be bundled with), are entering the CFB world, so too Amazon right?  Big 12 will be fine because the two schools that carry weight are Texas and ou sucks.

I cannot see a real difference.  If new fangled streaming services buy more than old cable and airwaves will buy less right?  It ends in the two merging and we'll be back to about four major media giants controlling everything.

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Yeah..streaming service is the new national TV channels. No need to for expansion or merging unless all the presidents get together and decide to form a league with all P5 schools in it. Then it could form geographically sense conferences again, and a playoff system. Til that day arrives, if ever, Big 12 is in great shape as long as Texas continues to win

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On 6/11/2019 at 2:45 PM, Al_4_ISU said:

 


If Notre Dame had become the 12th Big 10 school, we probably never see the 14 team leagues and Big 12 almost-Armageddon of 2010.

Yep.  B1G never approaches Mizzou (or vice versa, cant remember) if ND opted in to the B1G.  When Neb found out about MU's skirt raising, they (Neb) did everything they could to trump MU and so on, etc...etc.. yada yada we all know the rest of the story.

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1 hour ago, jdhorn92 said:

Yep.  B1G never approaches Mizzou (or vice versa, cant remember) if ND opted in to the B1G.  When Neb found out about MU's skirt raising, they (Neb) did everything they could to trump MU and so on, etc...etc.. yada yada we all know the rest of the story.

well, that sounds like you don't blame Texas for everything, since we know Texas is the only athletic department in America that ever acts in its own independent best interests

see what happened was that Texas destroyed the SWC and the Big 8 reluctantly took us and three other Texas schools and formed the Big 12, which we then immediately set about trying to destroy! and although it took 15 years, we were able to destroy it!!!! by inventing the Longhorn Network, and from that, Nebraska and Missouri and Colorado and Texas A&M all had to go to other conferences to get away from us before we nefariously destroyed their athletic departments

if I'm leaving anything out, just say "and that was Texas' fault too!" and you're covered

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I have friends that are fans of B1G teams that honestly do blame Texas for all that is wrong in the world of college football.  They can't even fathom that if the B1G in December 2009 never announces it is looking to expand, then NONE of the major realignment of 2010 and 2011 occurs, at all.  SEC was fine to stand pat until the B1G declared an arms race and escalated it twice within 2 years.

But those idiots refuse to accept that the B1G started it all, and Texas and everyone else had no choice but to start evaluating alternatives for soft landings.

 

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5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I have friends that are fans of B1G teams that honestly do blame Texas for all that is wrong in the world of college football.  They can't even fathom that if the B1G in December 2009 never announces it is looking to expand, then NONE of the major realignment of 2010 and 2011 occurs, at all.  SEC was fine to stand pat until the B1G declared an arms race and escalated it twice within 2 years.

But those idiots refuse to accept that the B1G started it all, and Texas and everyone else had no choice but to start evaluating alternatives for soft landings.

 

You need new friends.

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15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I have friends that are fans of B1G teams that honestly do blame Texas for all that is wrong in the world of college football.  They can't even fathom that if the B1G in December 2009 never announces it is looking to expand, then NONE of the major realignment of 2010 and 2011 occurs, at all.  SEC was fine to stand pat until the B1G declared an arms race and escalated it twice within 2 years.

But those idiots refuse to accept that the B1G started it all, and Texas and everyone else had no choice but to start evaluating alternatives for soft landings.

 

Texas was a convenient foil to hide behind due to the LHN.  Deloss didn't help matters with his hubris, but in the end, i agree, we were an easy target for everyone to point at.

Edited by jdhorn92
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Leave conferences as-is. Divide country into eight regions, sixteen teams each, for football. That's 128 teams. Then everybody has a shot at the National championship. All teams play a 9-game "regular season", playing whomever they want, conference, out of conference, whatever. They play four more games for the Regional championship. Play the first five games of the season as "regular", then alternate a playoff game with a regular game. At the end, everyone has thirteen games under their belt (or 12, 11... as each desires), and each region has a champion. The eight regional champions move on to a three-week playoff - again, with a week off between games. The other 120 teams can play bowls, exhibitions, whatever. In fact, the eight champions might accept a bowl if they wish. Maybe extend the playoffs to 16 and let each region choose an "alternate" to go into the playoffs - that could be their second-place team or anyone they want, so there would still be a beauty contest aspect.

Won't happen, of course - we live in an age when schedules are king, made years in advance, and it's just impossible for any human being, even with help from his or her AI implant, to figure out how to get hotel rooms and flights with only two weeks between games.

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