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Texas Basketball 2023-24


MuellerHorn

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20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

+7 in Net to 33. Big 12 road wins are the best wins 

I don’t know how this makes us need to go 2-2 to finish but I would assume that the win last night got us in minus some just disaster. Sure we go a quick 0-2, I won’t like it but I’d take the chance and say we still get in…if the right people lose. 

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7 hours ago, ztejas said:

4 minutes dog?

I appreciate everything he’s saying, the part I don’t like is that he’s almost making it sound like it was planned and done by conference when I highly doubt that ever happened. How can you get all the teams to agree to that especially when new teams just joined? I don’t see it. Maybe it happened by chance and we are just now seeing the benefit, who the hell knows but why make it seem like the big 12 “teamed up”. 

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1 hour ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I don’t know how this makes us need to go 2-2 to finish but I would assume that the win last night got us in minus some just disaster. Sure we go a quick 0-2, I won’t like it but I’d take the chance and say we still get in…if the right people lose. 

OKST is #113 in NET - we cannot, should not, shall not lose to them at home. 

OU is #40 and Baylor is #14 and on the road.  This is the time we have to win both of these home games.

9-9 is more than a lock, it's a guarantee of a bid. We'd improve from last four bye to solidly in. And 9-9 has the potential to keep us ahead of TCU, Tech and OU in the standings / tournament seedings, which could improve our seed from a 10 (right now) to a 7. 

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finally made up for the UCF disaster at home.

2 of 3 gets us in regardless of tournament.

1 of 3 plus tournament win gets us in

1 of 3 with no tournament win might be a bit sketchy.  would rather avoid that scenario.

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5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

finally made up for the UCF disaster at home.

2 of 3 gets us in regardless of tournament.

1 of 3 plus tournament win gets us in

1 of 3 with no tournament win might be a bit sketchy.  would rather avoid that scenario.

We are in at 8-10. No questions asked. 4 Q1 road wins is almost unheard of for a bubble team.

Personally, I think we are in if we don't win another game. #33 in NET and the bubble is not exactly popping with great resumes. I think we can sleep easy.

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10-8 is very doable as Baylor plays no defense. It will take the kind of effort we saw from the opening tip last night, but we have already beaten Baylor this season and they are missing a valubale rotation player right now. They have a big game on Saturday and turn that around with a Monday home game.

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Updated odds based on Massey:

  • 0-3: 6.5% - Probably an 11 seed if we make it in. Maybe First Four as well.
  • 1-2: 36.7% - Likely 9-10 seed
  • 2-1: 49.9% - Likely 7-8 seed
  • 3-0: 6.7% - We are top-5 in the conference at this point. 6 seed IMO. Maybe even better.

 

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2 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Ls to WVU and UCF continue to fuck us as we'd be in 5th place in the Big 12 if we won those two easily winnable games.

The UCF game hurt more because it was home and we controlled the game for the first 30 minutes. 

Hell, we would be talked about as a borderline-ranked team right now if we won that game. Would be setting up for a 10-win conference season.

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1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

I got a bad feeling the Big 12 will slap Cunningham with a one or two game suspension.

That would be so Big 12 and such bullshit.  I didn't have a problem with the Flagrant 2 but that should be it.  He was definitely going for the ball, he just did it in a reckless manner.

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18 hours ago, HookEm said:

The season could still swing wildly with 4 games to play.  Based on the Massey probabilities:

  • 0-4: 3%
  • 1-3: 20%
  • 2-2: 45%
  • 3-1: 25%
  • 4-0: 7%

At 8-10 we definitely get in, regardless of the Big 12 tourney.  At 7-11, it is definitely dicey.  Probably no better than 50/50 in that case and we would definitely have some work to do in the Big 12 tourney. Still, if those odds hold that gives us over 80% chance to make the tourney.  At that point, we could bow out in round 1 or make a deep run.

This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take. 

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That would be so Big 12 and such bullshit.  I didn't have a problem with the Flagrant 2 but that should be it.  He was definitely going for the ball, he just did it in a reckless manner.

He was initially going for the ball then you saw the devil on his shoulder tell him, “Your timing is late, just hip check the dude into the stands.”

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6 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Any benefit if Texas is loses to Baylor and/or ou but looks competent unlike the Houston and Kansas losses?

A little bit. NET factors in margin of victory/loss and offensive/defensive efficiency metrics. And as long as our NET stays around top 40 we are in good shape.

Edited by Hookem2147
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5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take. 

I would agree barring upsets happening around us.  Tech didn't have a big guy that could bully Disu. Even Shedrick kinda had his way.

you bully Disu(especially in the tourney where they let a lot more contact go) and smother Abmas or he has an off night which is about 60/40 and we don't have much else.

It is March though and....Kevin Garnett

RT is making the tourney which looked pretty sketchy after UCF. Good for him.

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5 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

A little bit. NET factors in margin of victory/loss and offensive/defensive efficiency metrics. And as long as our NET stays around top 40 we are in good shape.

agree that they use data.  "looking" competent not so much

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

I would agree barring upsets happening around us.  Tech didn't have a big guy that could bully Disu. Even Shedrick kinda had his way.

you bully Disu(especially in the tourney where they let a lot more contact go) and smother Abmas or he has an off night which is about 60/40 and we don't have much else.

It is March though and....Kevin Garnett

RT is making the tourney which looked pretty sketchy after UCF. Good for him.

Lets not start sucking each others dicks just yet. Need to beat Okie State still. 

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I think they should be in with 1 more win for sure now. It's frustrating because they're capable of playing good ball they just don't do it often enough to a high level. 

No matter what happens at least they scoreboarded those pieces of shit in the last game we'll play them in their place. 

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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take. 

Tell me you're not a college basketball fan without telling me you're not a college basketball fan. 

I'm not saying we WILL make the 2nd weekend. But way worse teams than us have in recent years.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

That would be so Big 12 and such bullshit.  I didn't have a problem with the Flagrant 2 but that should be it.  He was definitely going for the ball, he just did it in a reckless manner.

Nearly all conferences have suspension plans for those who get F2s/ejections in a basketball game should it rise to that level. It’s not just the B12. It’s also possible they deem he didn’t do anything to warrant further suspension and either a.) issue just a reprimand or b.) do nothing because the ejection was fine. That’s the protocol everywhere. 

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6 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Tell me you're not a college basketball fan without telling me you're not a college basketball fan. 

I'm not saying we WILL make the 2nd weekend. But way worse teams than us have in recent years.

Yeah worse teams than Texas 2023 have made the second weekend in the NCAAT. It’s all matchups and you finally face new opponents and not hostile road environments 

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6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Nearly all conferences have suspension plans for those who get F2s/ejections in a basketball game should it rise to that level. It’s not just the B12. It’s also possible they deem he didn’t do anything to warrant further suspension and either a.) issue just a reprimand or b.) do nothing because the ejection was fine. That’s the protocol everywhere. 

My point is that the Big 12 will escalate for Texas more than they would another program.  You know this.  The fucking commissioner was openly rooting for Tech in football this year, for fuck's sake.

Good riddance to these low rent glass ceiling dirtbags.

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37 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Tell me you're not a college basketball fan without telling me you're not a college basketball fan. 

I'm not saying we WILL make the 2nd weekend. But way worse teams than us have in recent years.

You said we would make a deep run, which is an elite 8 or better. Dont see that happening even if we play the school of the blind, deaf, and dumb each round. Our team has too many inexcusable fuckups to reach that level. I would be thrilled to be wrong but it would be counter to every indicator and game played this season. 

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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You said we would make a deep run, which is an elite 8 or better.

You need to slow down and read better.  Here is what I said:  "At that point, we COULD bow out in round 1 OR make a deep run."  

And I stand by that. We could easily lose in the first round.  Or we could make it to the Sweet 16, or possibly beyond.  I doubt we face a team with TWO better players than Disu and Abmas before the Elite Eight.  I mean hell, we took the #1 team in the country to OT.  Abmas took Oral freaking Roberts to the Sweet 16 with a worse supporting cast than this.

I wouldn't bet on us making a deep run, but it definitely could happen.

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4 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This team will not see the second weekend of the tourney. What a laughable take. 

I would not bet on this team at all in the tournament. They are certainly capable of losing early but they are also capable of winning a couple games if Disu/Abmas catch fire. 

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6 hours ago, HookEm said:

Updated odds based on Massey:

  • 0-3: 6.5% - Probably an 11 seed if we make it in. Maybe First Four as well.
  • 1-2: 36.7% - Likely 9-10 seed
  • 2-1: 49.9% - Likely 7-8 seed
  • 3-0: 6.7% - We are top-5 in the conference at this point. 6 seed IMO. Maybe even better.

 

I was actually thinking that same thing.

Most likely a 7 or 8 seed (hopefully 7), with a decent chance of 9 or 10 if we fuck up.  A 6 seed is there for the taking if we win out, which is not impossible.  Baylor is going to be coming off the KU match and like you said, Love has been out. 

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Is an 8 seed really better than an 11 seed?  If the goal is making the Sweet 16 or farther, I think the 11 seed might be better.

By my rough maths:

  • 8 seed:  ~6% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  55% vs. 9-seed
    • Round 2:  10% vs. 1 seed. Almost no chance you get the 16 seed in round 2. 
  • 11 seed:  ~15% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  40% vs. 6-seed
    • Round 2:  30% vs. 3-seed (or) 65% vs. 14-seed
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3 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Is an 8 seed really better than an 11 seed?  If the goal is making the Sweet 16 or farther, I think the 11 seed might be better.

By my rough maths:

  • 8 seed:  ~6% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  55% vs. 9-seed
    • Round 2:  10% vs. 1 seed. Almost no chance you get the 16 seed in round 2. 
  • 11 seed:  ~15% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  40% vs. 6-seed
    • Round 2:  30% vs. 3-seed (or) 65% vs. 14-seed

So... Find the 6th seed that shouldn't be a 6 playing the 11 that should be higher.

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6 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I would agree barring upsets happening around us.  Tech didn't have a big guy that could bully Disu. Even Shedrick kinda had his way.

you bully Disu(especially in the tourney where they let a lot more contact go) and smother Abmas or he has an off night which is about 60/40 and we don't have much else.

It is March though and....Kevin Garnett

RT is making the tourney which looked pretty sketchy after UCF. Good for him.

It’s a lot more difficult to bully a guy who can bring your ass 25 feet from the rim and shoot over you…

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39 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Is an 8 seed really better than an 11 seed?  If the goal is making the Sweet 16 or farther, I think the 11 seed might be better.

By my rough maths:

  • 8 seed:  ~6% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  55% vs. 9-seed
    • Round 2:  10% vs. 1 seed. Almost no chance you get the 16 seed in round 2. 
  • 11 seed:  ~15% you make Sweet 16
    • Round 1:  40% vs. 6-seed
    • Round 2:  30% vs. 3-seed (or) 65% vs. 14-seed

My hope would be a 6, 7, 10 or 11. Avoid 8/9 as much as possible 

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13 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

6 or 11 would be the best opportunity for getting past the first weekend. That’s the one thing Penders truly understood. Avoid the 1 or 2 seed for as long as possible and hope someone else takes them out.

Hah are you claiming that Penders somehow guided the aircraft to those seeds strategically vs that just being our natural place in the rankings ? The best year we had under Penders we faced a #2 the second game of the tournament in front of 37K of their fans…

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15 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

6 or 11 would be the best opportunity for getting past the first weekend. That’s the one thing Penders truly understood. Avoid the 1 or 2 seed for as long as possible and hope someone else takes them out.

 

image.thumb.png.d13c462699f91af9f597e78e19ed6000.png

 

Yeah 8/9 sucks.  7/10  is slightly better, but winning a 6/11 1st Rd matchup tends to give that team a much better shot to advance to Sweet 16. 

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9 minutes ago, Ignatius said:

Hah are you claiming that Penders somehow guided the aircraft to those seeds strategically vs that just being our natural place in the rankings ? The best year we had under Penders we faced a #2 the second game of the tournament in front of 37K of their fans…

Oh yeah 🤘

Panama Myers Baby !!!  🤘

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9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It was updated the 27th, but Lunardi has us as a 10 seed in Omaha. The 2 seed is God’s Gift. 

Fun.

It’s a little out of date with us getting another quad 1 win. Not saying we definitely moved up to 9th, but our outlook has changed with the higher likelihood we finish 9-9 now instead of 8-10

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23 hours ago, Hermanator said:

I think they should be in with 1 more win for sure now. It's frustrating because they're capable of playing good ball they just don't do it often enough to a high level. 

No matter what happens at least they scoreboarded those pieces of shit in the last game we'll play them in their place. 

I disagree a bit. We're limited by our lack of athleticism and physicality in the backcourt( and wings). Hunter has the necessary athleticism, but he's small and tends to spaz out too frequently to be depended on. Abmas just isn't athletic enough to consistently get good shots off against good defenses. I expected more from Abmas coming into the season given his pedigree, but after watching him play it's obvious why he wasn't considered a high major player coming out of high school. The Big 12 is simply the wrong league for him to play in. There are too many dominant and physically imposing wings/guards in this league for him to play at his optimal level. Ideally you'd love to let Abmas play off the ball and run him off screens all night, but you're putting yourself in jeopardy by asking Hunter to handle the ball that much, so it's a bit of a catch-22. 

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