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Posted
14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

"We've seen the end of major ground wars in Europe."

And we don't have to abandon Germany entirely.  We just need to give them sufficient reason to doubt that we will continue to provide our umbrella of nuclear deterrence.  Dude.  We've done that ALREADY.  The discussions on the european side are already (and rightly) happening: https://apnews.com/article/france-nuclear-weapons-deterrence-ukraine-russia-trump-a53dc73395455c753287ae2ecbb7a9a5

The only question is whether Germany will accept France extending its nuclear deterrent as sufficient.  If I were Germany, I sure as fuck wouldn't.  I would get me some nukes, and right quick.  They have to make themselves too prickly a hedgehog for Russia to even think of ingesting.

The logic just doesn’t even come close to adding up.  Not everyone over reacts to the stupid things that Trump tweets. 
 

But by your logic, we have Putin sitting in Russia contemplating an attack on Germany. Germany, who’s two biggest trading partners to the tune of over half a  trillion are the United States and China. Germany, who is the fifth most powerful country in the world by most analysis.  Germany, who buy all accounts is the strongest member of the EU.  
 

And what exactly in your scenario does Russia think that they will gain from invading Germany? Are they going to take it over? Are they going to force Germany to buy more oil and gas from them?  
 

But even though the idea of Russia invading Germany is so far-fetched to the point of not even really needing to be talked about, and even though Russia knows that if they did for some reason invade Germany, that China and the United States and the European Union and the UK would all mobilize against them instantly, in your mind it is possible.  However, if Germany suddenly had a nuclear bomb, then Putin would decide against it?   
 

I can just see Putin thinking to himself that he could invade Germany and take on the US and China and the EU and the UK and somehow win (knowing full well that those countries have literally thousands of nuclear weapons) but mighty Russia could probably pull it off. But if Germany decides to get a nuke, then it would be too hard.
 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

you laugh, but DoD marked this photo for deletion under their "anti-DEI" purge. They pulled it back after the collective "WTF" when they tried to memory hole the Red Tails among other heros.

https://apnews.com/article/dei-purge-images-pentagon-diversity-women-black-8efcfaec909954f4a24bad0d49c78074

Because the people doing this purge are fucking idiots who hate America(ns who don't look like them).

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Posted

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/world/middleeast/centrifuges-fordo-damage-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R08.n1gL.7_8VMsLT89y_&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

News from outside the United States confirming significant damage to the facilities. 

Quote

Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio on Thursday.

Evaluating the damage from the strikes using satellite imagery alone is difficult, Mr. Grossi told Radio France Internationale in an interview. But given the power of the bombs and the technical characteristics of the plant, “we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational,” he said.

Mr. Grossi added that centrifuges are machines that require a high-degree of precision and are vulnerable to intense vibrations.

“There was no escaping significant physical damage,” Mr. Grossi said. “So we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

 

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Posted

Well, once you get past the rage bait and actually watch the briefing by the general you learn some interesting facts. 
 

It was 6 MOPs down two ventilation shafts at Fordow.  Each weapon was fused specifically for its sequence in the drop, and had a warhead specialized for that sequence. The Iranians had attempted to put concrete lids on both shafts that were removed by the first weapon in each case. The final MOP dropped was an all purpose bomb carried in case of one of the bombers failing to drop for whatever reason, one of the bombs failing to hit the target or failing to detonate. 
 

Primary destruction was accomplished by blast and pressure wave effects, and the follow on B2 crews reported that the site was lit up like daylight possibly indicating that something inside the facility was burning beyond the explosive effects of a bunker buster. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

I reckon that was the joke, Captainobvious.

On this board, there are people that will deny it happened. I've found including a source helps to head off shitty snippy jokes about how it's just "TDS" and it never actually happened so it's not a big deal

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Posted (edited)

It's still performative bullshit that, at most, kicks the can down the road and ultimately solves nothing. The administration's behavior towards anyone that dares suggest anything short of utter obliteration, and them allowing Iran to shoot missiles at our bases is proof positive that it was all a performance.

They still have their HEU stockpile, who fucking cares if they have to rebuild some centrifuges?

Edited by Brian Fantana
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's still performative bullshit that, at most, kicks the can down the road and ultimately solves nothing. The administration's behavior towards anyone that dares suggest anything short of utter obliteration, and them allowing Iran to shoot missiles at our bases is proof positive that it was all a performance.

They still have their HEU stockpile, who fucking cares if they have to rebuild some centrifuges?

We will be bombing Iran in October of next year because they are weeks away having nukes.

 

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Posted
28 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Fuck off with that bullshit. Multiple articles have already been linked here stating that the site suffered severe damage. I know that I've posted at least a couple that have said the same thing. Not a single soul has denied or disputed that. There have been in-depth discussions, specifically speculating whether the delicate centrifuges could have survived the blast, depending on how they were stored and packed, or if they were just left in place or moved off-site.

Do not confuse mocking premature celebrations of total OBLITERATION by the rah-rah-rah clownshitshow brigade with being happy that Iran might still retain the capacity to make a bomb. No one here wants that.

This.  Nobody doubts that damage was done to equipment and materials of Iran's nuclear program.

The administration claims - these are the literal words - "total obliteration."  No information or evidence supports that claim.

The questions remain: was Iran's nuclear program effectively ended for the foreseeable future?  Or was it just set back?  If it was just set back, for how long?

If Iran can get back to where it was in less than a year, then it's a pretty short setback.  If Iran can't get back to where it was for several years, then it was a material setback.  If Iran can functionally NEVER get back to where it was, then that's a lot closer to "obliteration."

I don't think any person evaluating what is known, and acknowledging what remains unknown (and probably will remain unknown for several more weeks/months) would have a different take.  Yet we have leadership and victory-lap-posters on this thread acting as if the only two options are "TOTAL OBLITERATION!" or "YOU ARE FAKE NEWS AND HATE AMERICA AND OUR TROOPS!"  Fucking idiotic binary thinking, but America 2025, so yeah.

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Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

This.  Nobody doubts that damage was done to equipment and materials of Iran's nuclear program.

The administration claims - these are the literal words - "total obliteration."  No information or evidence supports that claim.

The questions remain: was Iran's nuclear program effectively ended for the foreseeable future?  Or was it just set back?  If it was just set back, for how long?

If Iran can get back to where it was in less than a year, then it's a pretty short setback.  If Iran can't get back to where it was for several years, then it was a material setback.  If Iran can functionally NEVER get back to where it was, then that's a lot closer to "obliteration."

I don't think any person evaluating what is known, and acknowledging what remains unknown (and probably will remain unknown for several more weeks/months) would have a different take.  Yet we have leadership and victory-lap-posters on this thread acting as if the only two options are "TOTAL OBLITERATION!" or "YOU ARE FAKE NEWS AND HATE AMERICA AND OUR TROOPS!"  Fucking idiotic binary thinking, but America 2025, so yeah.

It’s insane that the people here who are saying, “hey let’s take a beat and see how this whole thing shakes out before we draw concrete conclusions on the effectiveness of the bombing” are shouted down. For what? Being reasonable and not jumping to conclusions? Attempting to apply some critical thinking skills to a complex situation? Allowing the intelligence community, both internally and foreign, time to assess damage and monitor the actions of Iran in the coming weeks and months? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, royiv said:

Nuance is dead.

What?  This is the greatest, most secretive military operation in history, and it totally obliterated Iran's nuclear program.

I didn't use that absolutist, binary hyperbole.  Our actual leadership did.  But we're the ones being unreasonable and deranged.  Cool, cool.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We will be bombing Iran in October of next year because they are weeks away having nukes.

 

It sounds like Iran will be asked to give up all nuclear weapons aspirations and material or the bombing may resume sooner than that. 
 

And I don’t think the Mossad putting out that they wanted to eliminate the Ayatollah was coincidence. Negotiations will probably be held with a big bag of “Or else” sitting in plain sight. 

Posted

Meanwhile, in Gaza, the carnage continues.

  • Israel is weaponizing food delivery, drawing in desperate people into dire situations and ending up killing a bunch of them.
  • More Palestinians have died during the 12-day conflict between Israel/US and Iran, than among the three war combatants.
  • The University of London estimates that the death toll for the war is 39-90% higher than the 58,000 that the Gazan Ministry of Health has counted.

    image.thumb.png.031a46e4b4b783de358575f6eeeadef9.png
    https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/06/26/as-all-eyes-are-on-iran-the-horror-in-gaza-persists

    Israel might have stayed its bombardment of Iran, but the horror in Gaza continues. More Palestinians were killed in Gaza, according to the health ministry there, during Israel’s 12-day war in Iran than in that conflict. The widespread destruction of buildings of the early months of the war (around 60% have been affected) has slowed dramatically, but deaths have not (see charts). Whereas people were once killed in air strikes, the violence is now concentrated around the four new aid hubs that Israel has set up.

    Initially the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which runs the hubs, blamed the violence on teething problems. But the deaths linked to aid distribution have soared in the month since its launch. The UN says 410 Palestinians have been killed seeking food en route to the GHF’s centres.

    On June 24th at least 40 Palestinians were killed seeking aid in central and southern Gaza. Accounts differ. Doctors treating the wounded say the shrapnel matches Israeli artillery shells. Palestinians fleeing say Israeli tanks opened fire. Safe Reach Solutions, an American firm providing GHF’s security, says many of the incidents occur far beyond their perimeter fences and that no one within them has been hurt. Verifying any of these claims is difficult since Israel still does not allow foreign journalists into Gaza unsupervised. “We’re dealing with a starving population,” says a security contractor. “There’s no peaceful way of doing it right now.”

    Still the hungry keep coming. “The choice is between dying seeking food or starving to death,” says Ahmed Masri, whose son, Abed, was shot in the leg in an attack on June 14th while collecting food.

    It might help if Israel let in more food. The GHF says it has distributed 42m meals since its launch, less than one a day for every Palestinian, assuming women, children and elderly could all get it. And the foundation admits they cannot. Israel has sharply reduced aid flows via the UN and other humanitarian groups. Even the GHF is starting to fret about Israeli access restrictions. It plans 20 centres but Israel has yet to let it expand beyond the four pilots.

    Other vital supplies are running out. The GHF does not distribute water or medicine. Desalination and sewage-treatment plants, water pipes and hospitals have been destroyed. Abed’s father took him to three field hospitals after he was shot. All turned him away because they had no medicine to give him.

    Israel might have stayed its bombardment of Iran, but the horror in Gaza continues. More Palestinians were killed in Gaza, according to the health ministry there, during Israel’s 12-day war in Iran than in that conflict. The widespread destruction of buildings of the early months of the war (around 60% have been affected) has slowed dramatically, but deaths have not (see charts). Whereas people were once killed in air strikes, the violence is now concentrated around the four new aid hubs that Israel has set up.

    Deaths from disease, starvation and the lack of medicine are worsening the toll. Researchers at Royal Holloway, University of London and others say that by January 2025 8,500 people had died of war-related but non-violent causes since the conflict’s start. Based on interviews that month and a sample of nearly 10,000 people, they estimated that the death toll from traumatic injuries was 39-90% higher than that published by Gaza’s ministry of health, decried by Israel as a Hamas mouthpiece.

    Observers struggle to see a military rationale for weaponising food, water and medicine other than squeezing Palestinians into ever tinier slices of Gaza. Meanwhile, on the ground Israel still encounters resistance. Seven soldiers were killed when their armoured vehicle caught fire on June 24th. A military spokesman blamed explosives. Hopes for a ceasefire rest on the possibility that having helped Binyamin Netanyahu, Israeli’s prime minister, with his mission in Iran, Donald Trump will force him to accept a deal in Gaza.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

It sounds like Iran will be asked to give up all nuclear weapons aspirations and material or the bombing may resume sooner than that. 

And I don’t think the Mossad putting out that they wanted to eliminate the Ayatollah was coincidence. Negotiations will probably be held with a big bag of “Or else” sitting in plain sight. 

Good thing we elected somebody who promised no more wars.

We probably won’t bomb them again, because that would be Trump admitting that what he said was bullshit and he doesn’t like to do that.

He got a mulligan with a lot of people that supported him, that were pissed over the bombing. They won’t give him another one.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If Iran can get back to where it was in less than a year, then it's a pretty short setback.  If Iran can't get back to where it was for several years, then it was a material setback.  If Iran can functionally NEVER get back to where it was, then that's a lot closer to "obliteration."

We’ve also just given our enemies a major look at the capabilities of the B-2 and it’s ordnance and now they know how to build for it in the future.

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Good thing we elected somebody who promised no more wars.

We probably won’t bomb them again, because that would be Trump admitting that what he said was bullshit and he doesn’t like to do that.

He got a mulligan with a lot of people that supported him, that were pissed over the bombing. They won’t give him another one.

You think that 1) people will actually hold Trump to any policy standard, and 2) that he'll actually acknowledge such standards.

I truly don't understand why everyone hasn't grasped the simple truth that there is nothing he could do to lose support.

He could order US forces to machine-gun dead every person of hispanic descent in the US, and not lose a single vote (seriously, even the hispanic Trump supporters would keep voting for him right up till the bullets rip them apart).

He could then reverse course, and open the borders completely to allow every south of the border brown person in, proclaiming it part of his "big, beautiful plan to make American great again," and not lose a single vote. 

He could do those two things on successive days, and not lose a vote.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

We’ve also just given our enemies a major look at the capabilities of the B-2 and it’s ordnance and now they know how to build for it in the future.

Isn’t the B2 about to be replaced? Let them go ahead and plan for the B2.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

GuUZQAKX0AAHGu0?format=jpg&name=900x900

I liked how Barry Sanders totally obliterated the defense (warriors!), humbly handed the ball to the official after reaching the end zone, and quietly walked to the sideline.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hate said:

Isn’t the B2 about to be replaced? Let them go ahead and plan for the B2.

Not exactly, no. It'll be in service for a least another decade.

Posted

There are really two things being discussed here.

1.  Damage to Iran's nuclear weapons program and how far back they have been set
2.  Our President's wish-casting assertion that the damage was complete and total before any such assessment could have been made.

You can hope the answer to #1 is "complete and total" while also feeling like #2 is stupid, not in anyone's best interests and quite possibly dangerous.  I mean, the Ocean's Gate CEO certainly assured everyone that his sub's carbon fiber hull was da bomb, people took him at his word and there was no harm from his bullshit... until it imploded at a depth of 4000 meters.

That's where I'm at.   I sincerely hope the President is right.  It's in our best interests that he is.  Because if he's not, and we wind up conducting ourselves as if Iran's nuclear program has been obliterated when they have in fact escaped that fate, then we certainly are not safer than we were a week ago.

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Posted

image.thumb.png.87e5f9ae21bb15ed646491fe271f92eb.png
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9knl5w529o

Three Palestinians have been shot dead after dozens of Israeli settlers attacked a Palestinian village in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian authorities say.

Video footage from Kafr Malik, near Ramallah, on Wednesday night showed a car and a home on fire and Palestinians running away as gunfire is heard.

The Israeli military said forces deployed to the scene found settlers and villagers throwing stones at each other. It added that several "terrorists" opened fire and threw stones at the forces, who returned fire and identified hits. They also arrested five Israelis.

The Palestinian foreign ministry said settlers fired at villagers in their homes during what it called their "terrorist assault".

The ministry also said Israeli forces prevented ambulance crews from reaching the wounded and obstructed fire crews from entering the village for several hours.

Another villager, a 13-year-old boy, was shot dead - reportedly by Israeli troops - earlier in the week.

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews since it occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem - land Palestinians want, along with Gaza, for a hoped-for future state - in the 1967 Middle East war. An estimated 3.3 million Palestinians live alongside them.

The vast majority of the international community considers the settlements illegal under international law - a position supported by an advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) last year - although Israel disputes this.

"What do you expect us to do when our homes are being attacked by settlers with petrol bombs?" asked one elderly man, sitting quietly with hundreds of other mourners on Thursday after the funerals of the three men who were killed.

cont'd

Quote

 

Kafr Malik has been attacked numerous times in recent weeks by settlers increasingly emboldened by Israeli government ministers who often support their actions and who have endorsed the building of many more settlements.

"They think they can take my land and force me to leave, but I'm not going anywhere," said Hamdallah Bearat, a retired professor of engineering who has lived in Kfar Malik for most of his life.

For many younger Palestinians, though, the realities of an increasingly restrictive occupation and its economic consequences make life here more difficult by the day.

Shortly after the incident in Kafr Malik, there was another attack in the Palestinian community of Dar Fazaa, near the village of Taybeh.

Israeli human rights group B'Tselem said three people were injured and three cars were torched. It posted CCTV footage showing a group of at least 10 masked men setting one car on fire and throwing stones.

"The settler violence and rampage, under the protection of the occupation army, is a political decision by the Israeli government, implemented by the settlers," Palestinian Vice-President Hussein al-Sheikh wrote on X.

"The Israeli government's behaviour and decisions are pushing the region toward an explosion. We call on the international community to urgently intervene to protect our Palestinian people."

Since Hamas's attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza, more than 900 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank - a period in which more than 20 Israelis have also been killed.

There has also been a sharp increase in the number and severity of settler attacks in the West Bank over the same period.

The UN says there were 487 attacks by settlers resulting in casualties or property damage in the first four months of this year, including 122 in April. At least 181 Palestinians were reportedly injured by settlers in the attacks.

Human rights organisations and witnesses say the Israeli military and police frequently stand by while settlers attack Palestinian towns and villages.

Since the right-wing, pro-settler governing coalition headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took office in late 2022, it has decided to establish 49 new settlements and begin the legalisation process for seven settler outposts which were built without government authorisation, according to the Israeli anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now.

Last month, Israeli ministers said 22 new settlements had been approved across the length and width of the West Bank, hailing it as a move that "prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel".

In a separate incident on Wednesday, a 15-year-old Palestinian boy was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the town of al-Yamoun, near Jenin, the Palestinian health ministry said.

The Israeli military said "terrorists" threw explosive devices at its forces during an operation there. Afterwards, they approached while holding additional explosives and the forces responded by opening fire, it added.

In January, Israeli forces launched a large-scale operation against Palestinian armed groups in Jenin and two other governorates in the northern West Bank, which Netanyahu said aimed to "defeat terrorism".

The UN's human rights chief said in April that the operation had destroyed entire refugee camps and makeshift medical sites, and displaced more than 40,000 Palestinians, who had been told not to return to their homes for a year.

 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

image.thumb.png.87e5f9ae21bb15ed646491fe271f92eb.png
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz9knl5w529o

Three Palestinians have been shot dead after dozens of Israeli settlers attacked a Palestinian village in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian authorities say.

Video footage from Kafr Malik, near Ramallah, on Wednesday night showed a car and a home on fire and Palestinians running away as gunfire is heard.

The Israeli military said forces deployed to the scene found settlers and villagers throwing stones at each other. It added that several "terrorists" opened fire and threw stones at the forces, who returned fire and identified hits. They also arrested five Israelis.

The Palestinian foreign ministry said settlers fired at villagers in their homes during what it called their "terrorist assault".

The ministry also said Israeli forces prevented ambulance crews from reaching the wounded and obstructed fire crews from entering the village for several hours.

Another villager, a 13-year-old boy, was shot dead - reportedly by Israeli troops - earlier in the week.

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews since it occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem - land Palestinians want, along with Gaza, for a hoped-for future state - in the 1967 Middle East war. An estimated 3.3 million Palestinians live alongside them.

The vast majority of the international community considers the settlements illegal under international law - a position supported by an advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) last year - although Israel disputes this.

"What do you expect us to do when our homes are being attacked by settlers with petrol bombs?" asked one elderly man, sitting quietly with hundreds of other mourners on Thursday after the funerals of the three men who were killed.

cont'd

 

This is state-sponsored terrorism by the way, if you're confused as I'm sure many of you are.

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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Good thing we elected somebody who promised no more wars.

We probably won’t bomb them again, because that would be Trump admitting that what he said was bullshit and he doesn’t like to do that.

He got a mulligan with a lot of people that supported him, that were pissed over the bombing. They won’t give him another one.

I think that’s wish casting.  Especially if it’s Israel firing up the Bomb Iran playlist. This is and was being spun as the strike ending this particular flare up. It’s not entirely untrue given Iran’s token response, and possible signaling of where that response would strike so as not to actually hit anything. An adult decision on their end imoho. 
 

We’ll see what comes of the new round of negotiations, but the mulligan will end up being limited strikes on whatever remains of the Iranian nuclear program. Boots on the ground or a year long bombing campaign wouldn’t be tolerated. Another hit? Probably so with those objectives, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a link to an assassination attempt was played up for the base. 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

We’ve also just given our enemies a major look at the capabilities of the B-2 and it’s ordnance and now they know how to build for it in the future.

Always better to have them responding to you than the other way around. I don’t think anyone was surprised that B-2’s could make global strikes with large, precision bomb loads. Especially in non contested air space. They’ve been doing that for years. 

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