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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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3 minutes ago, Juicy said:

I agree with this. I just don't see Bama beating UGA. 

If Bama wins it makes things a lot more messy. 

As a Michigan Fan I want Oregon, UGA and Florida State to win (sorry Texas) because I think Michigan would crush FSU, especially with no Travis, and I think the only way Michigan gets that Matchup is if UGA/UM/FSU and Oregon all win. 

I think Louisville has a good shot of beating FSU, probably a toss up. If they do, Texas wins and they are in. Without FSU losing I really don't see a way Texas jumps in. *unless Michigan loses. 

 

You are kidding yourself if you think the committee is gonna put FSU at 3 with Michigan at 2. Georgia will 100% be given FSU if the opportunity is there and they will twist the ranking any which they need to, to make sure that happens. If that means Oregon at 3, then they will jump them over FSU. 

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8 minutes ago, Juicy said:

Bama. I explained that 5 posts ago. My assumption is that Bama is NOT going to beat UGA. Which is why I said a win over 12-1 Washington is better than a win over 11-2 Bama.

I could be wrong but I think the assumption we are making, to have the discussion, is that Bama beats Ga.

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FSU is basically a bye week if they get into the CFP barring some blowout of Louisville this weekend (and Louisville just lost to Kentucky, so how good are they?). It feels shitty to leave an undefeated conference P5 champ out but they ain't the same team without Travis.

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Just now, C-Man said:

FSU is basically a bye week if they get into the CFP barring some blowout of Louisville this weekend (and Louisville just lost to Kentucky, so how good are they?). It feels shitty to leave an undefeated conference P5 champ out but they ain't the same team without Travis.

they won't do it.  they are coaches/AD's and in their mind, injuries are just shitty luck and should not punish teams.  They do it for seeding in NCAA but never to have a team in or out.

FSU is #4 no matter what anyway because ACC sucks.

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9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You are kidding yourself if you think the committee is gonna put FSU at 3 with Michigan at 2. Georgia will 100% be given FSU if the opportunity is there and they will twist the ranking any which they need to, to make sure that happens. If that means Oregon at 3, then they will jump them over FSU. 

What possible reasoning could they give to have Michigan jump UGA for number 1 when UGA plays Bama and Michigan plays Iowa? 

Same for putting a team with 1 loss over an undefeated team.

I am not saying the committee won't do it, but last year they could have given UGA the "easy" game with TCU and didn't

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2 minutes ago, Juicy said:

What possible reasoning could they give to have Michigan jump UGA for number 1 when UGA plays Bama and Michigan plays Iowa? 

Same for putting a team with 1 loss over an undefeated team.

I am not saying the committee won't do it, but last year they could have given UGA the "easy" game with TCU and didn't

they didn't want the direct rematch with Mich/tOSU in the semi so they made tOSU try to earn the rematch by having them play Georgia.  TCU should have been 4 and tOSU 3.

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26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Correct:

image.thumb.png.584716c90ee3898aa2a56e52e8f0c1f1.png

 

Notably, we actually have a stronger SOR than Oregon, and a stronger SOS (based upon ESPN) of everyone other than Ohio State. Per ESPN, Strength of record - "Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule." 

In theory our SOR should go above tOSU if we beat OSU. 13th data point.

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27 minutes ago, Juicy said:

I agree with this. I just don't see Bama beating UGA. 

If Bama wins it makes things a lot more messy. 

As a Michigan Fan I want Oregon, UGA and Florida State to win (sorry Texas) because I think Michigan would crush FSU, especially with no Travis, and I think the only way Michigan gets that Matchup is if UGA/UM/FSU and Oregon all win. 

I think Louisville has a good shot of beating FSU, probably a toss up. If they do, Texas wins and they are in. Without FSU losing I really don't see a way Texas jumps in. *unless Michigan loses. 

 

on what you want to happen, it is an interesting discussion.  I think once they get to the final 4 they then decide seeds and I bet they let Ga play FSU and you play Ore.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Probably? I don't know the specifics of the calculation, so it is hard to judge. But, that would make sense. 

an avg top 25 team has to play an extra game on our schedule.  I think it bumps us up and tOSU down but you are correct we don't know the calculation.  Is ESPN the only one that does SOR?

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14 minutes ago, Juicy said:

What possible reasoning could they give to have Michigan jump UGA for number 1 when UGA plays Bama and Michigan plays Iowa? 

Same for putting a team with 1 loss over an undefeated team.

I am not saying the committee won't do it, but last year they could have given UGA the "easy" game with TCU and didn't

They weren't going to immediately run Michigan-Ohio State back the very next game in the CFP. That's why Georgia got Ohio State.

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30 minutes ago, Juicy said:

Bama. I explained that 5 posts ago. My assumption is that Bama is NOT going to beat UGA. Which is why I said a win over 12-1 Washington is better than a win over 11-2 Bama.

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Think some of us missed your specification, but also our entire discussion has been with the assumption that Alabama wins, just as the assumption is that Texas wins. Otherwise, why discuss it at all? We all know what happens to a 2-loss Alabama and its implications on Texas' claim to "best win."

 

 

 

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I'd also like to see more analysis of a team's resume than the margins of victory, which can be deceiving. For example, Oregon's 8 point win in Lubbock was more of a 1-point win that was padded by a desperation pass that led to a pick six in the final seconds of the game. In contrast, Texas's 50-point win against the same team easily could have been 60+ had the refs called the game fairly.

On the other side of the same coin, we shouldn't be as impressed when teams are blatantly trying to run up the score (which maybe Sark would have been doing if the halftime score was something like 45-7 instead of 26-7). Point being: margins are not the best indicator of how much better Team A is than Team B.

I wouldn't really call this type of analysis the "eye test" because that implies an element of subjectivity (and bias). Instead, I would look to measurables, such as the amount of time it takes to objectively put the game away (which Texas should have been able to do against Houston, K-State, and TCU, but didn't), 1st down conversions, points per possession, and I'd toss out the really obvious outlier data points.

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OK, let's get right down to it. I need a cheat sheet on what we're rooting for this weekend other than a blanket every-favorite-loses-except-Texas scenario.

 

Pac-12 Championship Game (7 PM, Friday): Oregon vs Washington

Oregon win: Likely drops Washington out of the CFP because the Pac-12 isn't getting two teams into the playoffs and the Huskies have limped to the finish line. It becomes a potential beauty contest between one-loss Oregon and (presumably) one-loss Texas.

Washington win: Basically nails down one of four spots we're hoping Texas can get.

C-Man's pulled-out-his-ass odds chance of each team winning: Oregon 70%, Washington 30%

 

Big 12 Championship Game (11 AM, Saturday): Texas vs Oklahoma State

Texas win: Well, no shit. This a must. Obviously, the bigger the victory the better it looks.

Oklahoma State win: Everything is mute. Forget everything before or after this point.

C-Man's odds: Texas 80%, Oklahoma State 20%

 

SEC Championship Game (3 PM, Saturday): Alabama vs Georgia

Georgia win: The Bulldogs have a spot in the playoff period, likely as the #1 seed (#2 at the worst)

Alabama win: Makes Texas win over Tide look better. Causes some chaos and opens up one of the four spots.

C-Man's odds: Georgia 60%, Alabama 40%

 

Big 10 Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Michigan vs Iowa

Michigan win: Locks down the #2 seed, possibly #1 depending on what Georgia does earlier.

Iowa win: The world comes to an end. Obviously, this would be fantastic. It won't happen. But it would be fucking amazing.

C-Man's odds: Michigan 95%, Iowa 5%

 

ACC Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Florida State vs Louisville

Florida State win: You would think a win should cinch a playoff berth for the Seminoles since they'd be undefeated P5 champs. But if it's ugly and you know Travis is out, would the committee have the balls to leave them out if somebody like Texas or Oregon is fresh off a massive win in their games? Who cares about setting a precedent? This 4-team format is going away. Let's be honest -- all the committee is doing is throwing the Noles to the wolves if they make them the #4 seed now. Cardale Jones ain't walking through that door. Fuck Billy Napier for not taking care of business last weekend.

Louisville win: Another duh pick. There is no scenario that a Louisville win doesn't benefit the Horns.

C-Man's odds: Florida State 50%, Louisville 50%

 

I've probably put way too much energy trying to make sense of this at this point. And, yes, as the results start coming in perhaps our rooting interests need adjustment on Saturday. Let's go win the last Big 12 Championship and hope something falls our way later in the day.

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16 minutes ago, C-Man said:

OK, let's get right down to it. I need a cheat sheet on what we're rooting for this weekend other than a blanket every-favorite-loses-except-Texas scenario.

 

Pac-12 Championship Game (7 PM, Friday): Oregon vs Washington

Oregon win: Likely drops Washington out of the CFP because the Pac-12 isn't getting two teams into the playoffs and the Huskies have limped to the finish line. It becomes a potential beauty contest between one-loss Oregon and (presumably) one-loss Texas.

Washington win: Basically nails down one of four spots we're hoping Texas can get.

C-Man's pulled-out-his-ass odds chance of each team winning: Oregon 70%, Washington 30%

 

Big 12 Championship Game (11 AM, Saturday): Texas vs Oklahoma State

Texas win: Well, no shit. This a must. Obviously, the bigger the victory the better it looks.

Oklahoma State win: Everything is mute. Forget everything before or after this point.

C-Man's odds: Texas 80%, Oklahoma State 20%

 

SEC Championship Game (3 PM, Saturday): Alabama vs Georgia

Georgia win: The Bulldogs have a spot in the playoff period, likely as the #1 seed (#2 at the worst)

Alabama win: Makes Texas win over Tide look better. Causes some chaos and opens up one of the four spots.

C-Man's odds: Georgia 60%, Alabama 40%

 

Big 10 Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Michigan vs Iowa

Michigan win: Locks down the #2 seed, possibly #1 depending on what Georgia does earlier.

Iowa win: The world comes to an end. Obviously, this would be fantastic. It won't happen. But it would be fucking amazing.

C-Man's odds: Michigan 95%, Iowa 5%

 

ACC Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Florida State vs Louisville

Florida State win: You would think a win should cinch a playoff berth for the Seminoles since they'd be undefeated P5 champs. But if it's ugly and you know Travis is out, would the committee have the balls to leave them out if somebody like Texas or Oregon is fresh off a massive win in their games? Who cares about setting a precedent? This 4-team format is going away. Let's be honest -- all the committee is doing is throwing the Noles to the wolves if they make them the #4 seed now. Cardale Jones ain't walking through that door. Fuck Billy Napier for not taking care of business last weekend.

Louisville win: Another duh pick. There is no scenario that a Louisville win doesn't benefit the Horns.

C-Man's odds: Florida State 50%, Louisville 50%

 

I've probably put way too much energy trying to make sense of this at this point. And, yes, as the results start coming in perhaps our rooting interests need adjustment on Saturday. Let's go win the last Big 12 Championship and hope something falls our way later in the day.

In no scenario does an undefeated team winning really help Texas - at best it's debatable. Keep it simple, root for chaos.

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38 minutes ago, C-Man said:

OK, let's get right down to it. I need a cheat sheet on what we're rooting for this weekend other than a blanket every-favorite-loses-except-Texas scenario.

 

Pac-12 Championship Game (7 PM, Friday): Oregon vs Washington

Oregon win: Likely drops Washington out of the CFP because the Pac-12 isn't getting two teams into the playoffs and the Huskies have limped to the finish line. It becomes a potential beauty contest between one-loss Oregon and (presumably) one-loss Texas.

Washington win: Basically nails down one of four spots we're hoping Texas can get.

C-Man's pulled-out-his-ass odds chance of each team winning: Oregon 70%, Washington 30%

 

Big 12 Championship Game (11 AM, Saturday): Texas vs Oklahoma State

Texas win: Well, no shit. This a must. Obviously, the bigger the victory the better it looks.

Oklahoma State win: Everything is mute. Forget everything before or after this point.

C-Man's odds: Texas 80%, Oklahoma State 20%

 

SEC Championship Game (3 PM, Saturday): Alabama vs Georgia

Georgia win: The Bulldogs have a spot in the playoff period, likely as the #1 seed (#2 at the worst)

Alabama win: Makes Texas win over Tide look better. Causes some chaos and opens up one of the four spots.

C-Man's odds: Georgia 60%, Alabama 40%

 

Big 10 Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Michigan vs Iowa

Michigan win: Locks down the #2 seed, possibly #1 depending on what Georgia does earlier.

Iowa win: The world comes to an end. Obviously, this would be fantastic. It won't happen. But it would be fucking amazing.

C-Man's odds: Michigan 95%, Iowa 5%

 

ACC Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Florida State vs Louisville

Florida State win: You would think a win should cinch a playoff berth for the Seminoles since they'd be undefeated P5 champs. But if it's ugly and you know Travis is out, would the committee have the balls to leave them out if somebody like Texas or Oregon is fresh off a massive win in their games? Who cares about setting a precedent? This 4-team format is going away. Let's be honest -- all the committee is doing is throwing the Noles to the wolves if they make them the #4 seed now. Cardale Jones ain't walking through that door. Fuck Billy Napier for not taking care of business last weekend.

Louisville win: Another duh pick. There is no scenario that a Louisville win doesn't benefit the Horns.

C-Man's odds: Florida State 50%, Louisville 50%

 

I've probably put way too much energy trying to make sense of this at this point. And, yes, as the results start coming in perhaps our rooting interests need adjustment on Saturday. Let's go win the last Big 12 Championship and hope something falls our way later in the day.

If Alabama wins, do you think both Alabama and Georgia are out of the playoffs?

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42 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

 

I've probably put way too much energy trying to make sense of this at this point. And, yes, as the results start coming in perhaps our rooting interests need adjustment on Saturday. Let's go win the last Big 12 Championship and hope something falls our way later in the day.

11am conference championships are dumb.

but we tried 7pm conference championships when everything else fell in to place earlier in the day so why not flip it

 

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54 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

there were some bad offensive series but Maalik wasn't playing D

KSU is a good team so shouldn't really be included but it was the TO's by the O that f'd us mostly in that game.

Houston was some suspect D and MM getting thrown in.

Ewers was back.  TCU was an absolute collapse by the D helped by the 15 yard personal foul by Red on the punt return.

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I know this isn't the committee and just media members on Fox but only 2 of the 6 have FSU in the top 4 right now. Sure, 2 of these teams play each other this weekend so they will cancel each other out but it's still interesting what the masses think of FSU right now without their QB. Especially after seeing them play to the wire against a shitty Florida team74d728c9e74c723e8ecb73392b62b392.jpg

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Just now, dcar00 said:

KSU is a good team so shouldn't really be included but it was the TO's by the O that f'd us mostly in that game.

Houston was some suspect D and MM getting thrown in.

Ewers was back.  TCU was an absolute collapse by the D helped by the 15 yard personal foul by Red on the punt return.

Ewers was limited against TCU and ISU. Hell, he still didnt look 100% against Tech. He has looked better each week and the best is yet to come. But that explains a lot of the TCU game and the lack of a blowout against ISU. 

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1 minute ago, Vic Mackey said:

I know this isn't the committee and just media members on Fox but only 2 of the 6 have FSU in the top 4 right now. Sure, 2 of these teams play each other this weekend so they will cancel each other out but it's still interesting what the masses think of FSU right now without their QB. Especially after seeing them play to the wire against a shitty Florida team74d728c9e74c723e8ecb73392b62b392.jpg

4 of these clowns think 2 pac-12 teams are going to the playoffs? I'll take their salaries to be wrong all the time, thank you.

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1 minute ago, Vic Mackey said:

I know this isn't the committee and just media members on Fox but only 2 of the 6 have FSU in the top 4 right now. Sure, 2 of these teams play each other this weekend so they will cancel each other out but it's still interesting what the masses think of FSU right now without their QB. Especially after seeing them play to the wire against a shitty Florida team74d728c9e74c723e8ecb73392b62b392.jpg

Chris "The Bear" Falicia seems like he is a special type of stupid. 

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2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

I know this isn't the committee and just media members on Fox but only 2 of the 6 have FSU in the top 4 right now. Sure, 2 of these teams play each other this weekend so they will cancel each other out but it's still interesting what the masses think of FSU right now without their QB. Especially after seeing them play to the wire against a shitty Florida team74d728c9e74c723e8ecb73392b62b392.jpg

Mark Ingram loves teams without their starting QB...

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3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Ewers was limited against TCU and ISU. Hell, he still didnt look 100% against Tech. He has looked better each week and the best is yet to come. But that explains a lot of the TCU game and the lack of a blowout against ISU. 

yeah I know about how Ewers looked.  the fact is he played and Malik didn't if someone is discussing play with backup QB's.

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25 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

If Alabama wins, do you think both Alabama and Georgia are out of the playoffs?

No, I think Bama would be in barring some crazy scenarios. I will say that if Bama and Texas both wind up 1-loss conference champs and somehow Bama is in and we're not, then I'll be screaming bloody murder because that shit ain't right.

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2 hours ago, Juicy said:

I agree with this. I just don't see Bama beating UGA. 

If Bama wins it makes things a lot more messy. 

As a Michigan Fan I want Oregon, UGA and Florida State to win (sorry Texas) because I think Michigan would crush FSU, especially with no Travis, and I think the only way Michigan gets that Matchup is if UGA/UM/FSU and Oregon all win. 

I think Louisville has a good shot of beating FSU, probably a toss up. If they do, Texas wins and they are in. Without FSU losing I really don't see a way Texas jumps in. *unless Michigan loses. 

We are a bad matchup for you, but it would make next season's game even more fun if we wound up playing.

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I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in.  I think it's wrong, but I want to believe...  If FSU isn't #4 tonight, they are likely done if they don't look impressive in a win on Saturday.  Besides the "better team" argument, I think the media hates the idea that we might get a "wasted" playoff game where FSU isn't competitive.  I don't know how much the committee has the same mindset, but who the hell wants FSU in at this point over a 1 loss Texas, Bama, or Oregon?

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2 hours ago, C-Man said:

OK, let's get right down to it. I need a cheat sheet on what we're rooting for this weekend other than a blanket every-favorite-loses-except-Texas scenario.

 

Pac-12 Championship Game (7 PM, Friday): Oregon vs Washington

Oregon win: Likely drops Washington out of the CFP because the Pac-12 isn't getting two teams into the playoffs and the Huskies have limped to the finish line. It becomes a potential beauty contest between one-loss Oregon and (presumably) one-loss Texas.

Washington win: Basically nails down one of four spots we're hoping Texas can get.

C-Man's pulled-out-his-ass odds chance of each team winning: Oregon 70%, Washington 30%

 

Big 12 Championship Game (11 AM, Saturday): Texas vs Oklahoma State

Texas win: Well, no shit. This a must. Obviously, the bigger the victory the better it looks.

Oklahoma State win: Everything is mute. Forget everything before or after this point.

C-Man's odds: Texas 80%, Oklahoma State 20%

 

SEC Championship Game (3 PM, Saturday): Alabama vs Georgia

Georgia win: The Bulldogs have a spot in the playoff period, likely as the #1 seed (#2 at the worst)

Alabama win: Makes Texas win over Tide look better. Causes some chaos and opens up one of the four spots.

C-Man's odds: Georgia 60%, Alabama 40%

 

Big 10 Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Michigan vs Iowa

Michigan win: Locks down the #2 seed, possibly #1 depending on what Georgia does earlier.

Iowa win: The world comes to an end. Obviously, this would be fantastic. It won't happen. But it would be fucking amazing.

C-Man's odds: Michigan 95%, Iowa 5%

 

ACC Championship Game (7 PM, Saturday): Florida State vs Louisville

Florida State win: You would think a win should cinch a playoff berth for the Seminoles since they'd be undefeated P5 champs. But if it's ugly and you know Travis is out, would the committee have the balls to leave them out if somebody like Texas or Oregon is fresh off a massive win in their games? Who cares about setting a precedent? This 4-team format is going away. Let's be honest -- all the committee is doing is throwing the Noles to the wolves if they make them the #4 seed now. Cardale Jones ain't walking through that door. Fuck Billy Napier for not taking care of business last weekend.

Louisville win: Another duh pick. There is no scenario that a Louisville win doesn't benefit the Horns.

C-Man's odds: Florida State 50%, Louisville 50%

 

I've probably put way too much energy trying to make sense of this at this point. And, yes, as the results start coming in perhaps our rooting interests need adjustment on Saturday. Let's go win the last Big 12 Championship and hope something falls our way later in the day.

There isn't anything about this thread that is mute

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Counterpoint to the "Texas was lucky they got Bama early" argument:

For years we have heard about what a meat grinder the SEC schedule is, how every game is a war, that they need to play a powder puff late in the season to recover from the rigors of the 8- game gauntlet, yada yada.

It's lucky for Bama that they played us early in the year while they were still fresh and before all the SEC games took their toll. 

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2 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Counterpoint to the "Texas was lucky they got Bama early" argument:

For years we have heard about what a meat grinder the SEC schedule is, how every game is a war, that they need to play a powder puff late in the season to recover from the rigors of the 8- game gauntlet, yada yada.

It's lucky for Bama that they played us early in the year while they were still fresh and before all the SEC games took their toll. 

As an outsider, we can't possibly comprehend all the nuances of how hard it is to be an SEC team.  It just means more.  

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

Travis is out, would the committee have the balls to leave them out if somebody like Texas or Oregon is fresh off a massive win in their games

 

1 hour ago, BlackCat said:

If FSU goes undefeated they aren’t getting left out. It’s simple for us, beat Ok State and FSU loses we are in. Vegas thinks Oregon has a better shot than us if it comes down to the two of us. 

I can't get my head around the idea that the Seminoles would be punished because their starting quarterback is out for the season. He's a critical component of the season, but not the only one. If FSU goes undefeated they are in.

I have two obvious complaints about the beauty pageant between Texas and Alabama, and Texas and Oregon.

First, beating Georgia, the strength of schedule, or whatever criteria you want to judge Alabama upon takes a backseat to the ultimate criteria. Head to head. Beating a clearly overrated Georgia team on a neutral field does not erase that ass-kicking you took in Tuscaloosa. Period. Case closed. I'm in the minority I presume because I want Bama to beat Georgia. I doubt the NCAA committee will include the Tide, without the Big 12 Champ, Texas. 

Second, Oregon and Texas can each argue that their team only has one loss or that the PAC 12 schedule is tougher than the Big 12's.  Screw the notion that one has looked better in the process too. There was a single common opponent. Texas throttled Texas Tech. Oregon did not. Arguing about the timing or location of the games is moot. Oregon played Tech in only their second game. Meanwhile, Texas faced Tech in the Red Raiders' 12th game. Which Red Raider team was more prepared and more motivated? Oregon played them in Lubbock. What's home-field advantage worth? Seven points? 14? That's a plus 15 (7) or 22 (14) points for Oregon (@+8). In contrast, Texas (@+50) is a plus 43 (-7) or a plus 36 (-14) if you give the Longhorns 7 or 14 points for home-field advantage.  Count home-field advantage at DKR as a 21-point advantage for Texas? That's still a +29 for Texas. Still more impressive than Oregon, and Oregon doesn't reach +29 unless you believe that Lubbock was a 21-point home-field advantage when the Ducks played Texas Tech. FYI, Texas has lost in Lubbock 11 times since 1934 with an average loss margin of 7.8 pts.  Tech has only covered 21 points once against Texas (1994). 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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