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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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2 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

 

 

Right, we'd need Oregon and Alabama to win. We're saying the same thing. Oregon winning doesn't help us. However, I agree, I think Bama would jump us.

I'm looking for a Iowa or FSU win. If those don't happen, I'm accepting fate.

Right. We need both. But either on its own doesn't hurt so there is really no sense in rooting for any other outcome. We want Oregon to win (by a little), Alabama to win, Iowa to win, and Louisville to win. Each of those outcomes, individually and as a whole, increases our odds of being selected. 

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22 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

My concern is that the committee has filled in their brackets in with a Sharpie.

Georgia, Michigan, PAC Champion, and SEC Champion. 
 

Georgia has wins over Number 9 Mizzou and Number 11 Ole Miss. Pretty good resume. Plenty of precedent for SEC runner up/second best team to make the CFP. 
 

Bama would have the best win of the year if they beat Georgia, and they’d be the Sec Champs. 

In the committee’s opinion, Michigan has the best current win over Ohio State. I don’t think they’ll lose to Iowa, but I also think it might not matter except for seeding. 
 

I think the committee is praying for Michigan to win, Louisville to win, and especially praying for Georgia to beat Bama to avoid some difficult explanations. 

if they cared about difficult explanations they'd already have Oregon behind Texas.  narrator: they don't give a fuck, the guy talked about Bo Nix, points scored, completion percentage, everything but Oregon's shitty SOS and nobody challenged him hard.  he didn't give a fuck.

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6 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

I feel like the committee is going by the average margin of victory to rank the one-loss teams. It's done in soccer and many other international sports. Can someone check into the average scoring differentials among Oregon, tOSU, Texas and Bama?

If so that’s fucking retarded when our SOS are literally 40 places apart 

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Once again, never has a non-champion gone over a P5 champion with the same number of losses. All those times people remember non-champions getting in that is scaring them right now were when the champions they went instead of all had more losses.

Can’t wait for this to have to be posted again on the next page as people continue to ignore common sense

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34 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

My disagreement rests with the Oregon argument. I understand an undefeated UW is a 100% lock over Texas; but how is Oregon, as Pac-12 champion, not a lock over Texas? They've already been ranked ahead of Texas week after week and their title game win would be drastically better than Texas'.

I guess he argues that 1 in a million chance is better than 0 in a million.  Its kind of irrelevant.

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Once again, never has a non-champion gone over a P5 champion with the same number of losses. All those times people remember non-champions getting in that is scaring them right now were when the champions they went instead of all had more losses.

this is true.  I do think the are setting up a "chance" for Georgia this time because their adherence to the Oregon BS is just mystifying.

we never got close enough for it to matter but the whole time we were scheduling one tough or reasonably tough P5 I kept thinking "why do we do that?"

Texas has never won or had a chance to win a NC unless they were undefeated.  We always get screwed. and no one that is a blue blood ever gets punished for playing 3 D1 nobodies OOC.

Until they show they value SOS over number of losses we need to avoid any chance to take a loss OOC.  and that goes for when it goes to 12.  They will do the exact same poll era shit they've been doing for 25 years.  This year is the perfect example that proves the theory.

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Once again, never has a non-champion gone over a P5 champion with the same number of losses. All those times people remember non-champions getting in that is scaring them right now were when the champions they went instead of all had more losses.

Yup overall record followed by conference champion as a tie breaker. That's all the committee has needed to select the four teams every single year except one, 2014, when there was one undefeated and four one-loss champions. 

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5 minutes ago, bullet said:

I guess he argues that 1 in a million chance is better than 0 in a million.  Its kind of irrelevant.

Sort of. But I disagree with your percentages. If Oregon and Alabama win, I think it is about 60% we advance with Alabama. The 40% is if we struggle with OSU and/or Oregon completely blows out Washington, it would probably be Alabama and Oregon to advance. 

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

All I care about is a Texas win and an FSU loss. Then we are in. 

But if FSU wins a Bama win is better than a Georgia win. Since we won't know the ACC outcome the best path is rooting for Bama.

Georgia's shitbox schedule will bite them in the ass if they lose the only good game they play.

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8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

this is true.  I do think the are setting up a "chance" for Georgia this time because their adherence to the Oregon BS is just mystifying.

we never got close enough for it to matter but the whole time we were scheduling one tough or reasonably tough P5 I kept thinking "why do we do that?"

Texas has never won or had a chance to win a NC unless they were undefeated.  We always get screwed. and no one that is a blue blood ever gets punished for playing 3 D1 nobodies OOC.

Until they show they value SOS over number of losses we need to avoid any chance to take a loss OOC.  and that goes for when it goes to 12.  They will do the exact same poll era shit they've been doing for 25 years.  This year is the perfect example that proves the theory.

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

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1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

They ask the committee head about why they like Oregon so much and he talks about Bo Nix's completion percentage??? What the ever-loving fuck? WHY should the committee give a single damn about a stat like that?

That’s why all the “logical arguments” in here about conf champs, H2H, common opponents, etc. are so laughably ignorant. This is a beauty contest and the committee can do whatever the fuck they want- and they absolutely will.
 

Root for Louisville, Washington, Georgia. Anything else is fucking stupid.

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4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

That’s why all the “logical arguments” in here about conf champs, H2H, common opponents, etc. are so laughably ignorant. This is a beauty contest and the committee can do whatever the fuck they want- and they absolutely will.
 

Root for Louisville, Washington, Georgia. Anything else is fucking stupid.

Again, you're being stupid. If the committee is going to do whatever it wants, and we can't rely on reason or past experience, then it doesn't really matter who wins. 1 loss, non champion FSU over Texas? Sure, why not. After all, Texas's only win was Alabama, and they just lost to Georgia. Or maybe 2 loss Alabama who is much better now than when it played Texas deserves another shot. Or 1 loss non champion Ohio State. 

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

we should already be in.  it isn't really helping us that much because the committee doesn't value SOS.  the reason we schedule these games is for this exact scenario but the committee doesn't care that Oregon played shitty OOC and almost lost to one of those shitty OOC(who we rolled by 50).  They played fucking Portland State for god sakes.  Their SOS is not even close to ours, it is abysmal.

we need to beat OU and not worry about a potential 2nd loss if we do happen to lose to OU.  

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Again, you're being stupid. If the committee is going to do whatever it wants, and we can't rely on reason or past experience, then it doesn't really matter who wins. 1 ones, non champion FSU over Texas? Sure, why not. After all, Texas's only win was Alabama, and they just lost to Georgia. Or maybe 2 loss Alabama who is much better now than when it played Texas deserves another shot. Or 1 loss non champion Ohio State. 

Again though, the committee’s guidelines: 

I Can Do What I Want Parks And Recreation GIF
 

They can do whatever the fuck they want. 

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Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Again though, the committee’s guidelines: 

I Can Do What I Want Parks And Recreation GIF
 

They can do whatever the fuck they want. 

That's my point. Even if your ideal situation happens, it doesn't mean anything if you truly believe there are no rules. It is illogical to simultaneously assert that no rules apply and to assert there is some outcome that must be better for us. Both cannot be true. 

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes, this is also a funny thing people miss. If Alabama beats Georgia that only strengthens the fact that Texas's win in Tuscaloosa is the best of the season.

No it doesn't.  You're getting suckered into assuming a transitive relation between football games.

If you go by your logic, Oklahoma's win would be the best of the season because they beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.

But then Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma would be the best.  If they beat Texas, then they'll have beaten the team that beat the team that beat UGA AND the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.  Oklahoma State should be in the CFP.

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, rankings came out today. That's what we've been discussing for the last 3 pages. 

I saw a post here that was “7 mins ago” when I read it asking when they drop and I then googled and only got news about projections. Maybe I fucked up my google search. I’ll try again. Meh. 

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7 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

If Bama wins a close game against Georgia, both teams are in. No fucking way Georgia gets left out. Not happening.

Rooting for Bama and Oregon is the stupidest thing ever. 

Let's compare the 3 teams:

1. Conference Championship (Bama and Texas) (Bonus point for Texas they beat the SEC champs and are the only team in the field with a win over another playoff team) Tex > Bama > Georgia

2. Head 2 Head (Adv Texas who beat Bama) (Adv Bama who beat Georgia) Tex > Bama > Georgia

Shit this isnt going to well for Georgia, let's move to item 3....

3. Strength of Schedule (Texas > Bama > Georgia)

Well shit there is always...

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas who beat Bama on the road) (Georgia lost to Bama at a neutral site)

Well there you have it folks, obviously Georgia is going to get in over Texas!!! SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's my point. Even if your ideal situation happens, it doesn't mean anything if you truly believe there are no rules. It is illogical to simultaneously assert that no rules apply and to assert there is some outcome that must be better for us. Both cannot be true. 

Fair enough, I think some of us are still scarred from 2008 around here. 
 

Hard to imagine a scenario where we don’t get fucked somehow. Battered Horns Syndrome.

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23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

Absolutely we're in the conversation if we had beaten an in state scrub team instead of Alabama week 2. We'd arguably be in almost the same position we're in now. Alabama would be ranked ahead of us as an undefeated team but the same situation would exist where one of Georgia or them would lose the SEC title game. The difference is we'd be more likely to see 2 SEC teams in no matter who lost where as now it's only possible if Alabama wins. 

We'd still need FSU to lose and we'd need Oregon to win and hope the committee sees how in every conceivable metric we're above Oregon. Same as now. Our chances would be lower simply because the SEC would have 2 undefeated teams instead of 1 but we'd 100 percent be in the conversation. 

Next year it all doesn't matter as the key will be finish the SEC schedule with 2 or fewer losses. Chances are we get in a 12 team playoff with a 10-2 record in the SEC most years. 

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SIAP but I found this simulation run to be interesting. Obviously the human factor the committee provides makes the projections more challenging, but these seem like reasonable outcomes 
 
 
 

Interesting chart. Bottom line is if Michigan, Florida State and Georgia all win, there is no path for Texas.
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5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Absolutely we're in the conversation if we had beaten an in state scrub team instead of Alabama week 2. We'd arguably be in almost the same position we're in now. Alabama would be ranked ahead of us as an undefeated team but the same situation would exist where one of Georgia or them would lose the SEC title game. The difference is we'd be more likely to see 2 SEC teams in no matter who lost where as now it's only possible if Alabama wins. 

We'd still need FSU to lose and we'd need Oregon to win and hope the committee sees how in every conceivable metric we're above Oregon. Same as now. Our chances would be lower simply because the SEC would have 2 undefeated teams instead of 1 but we'd 100 percent be in the conversation. 

Next year it all doesn't matter as the key will be finish the SEC schedule with 2 or fewer losses. Chances are we get in a 12 team playoff with a 10-2 record in the SEC most years. 

Our path in would be much, much narrower. But you do you and be negative. 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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